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GBP/USD - Pound steady, inflation expectations easeThe British pound is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2277, up 0.50%. For Bank of England policy makers, the "how not to start the day" manual likely included inflation climbing higher. That was the bad news earlier today, as UK headline CPI rose to 10.4% in February, reversing the deceleration trend in recent months. The reading was up from 10.1% in January and above the consensus estimate of 9.8%. The core rate climbed to 6.2% in February, up from 5.8% prior which was also the estimate. The usual suspects were at play, with the food and energy prices driving the increase in inflation. The inflation print will complicate matters for the BoE, which has hiked rates to 4.0% in a bid to contain inflation. Higher inflation will require further rate hikes, but the fallout from the banking crisis, which has roiled the financial markets, means that central banks will have to tread carefully with rate moves. The BoE is almost certain to deliver a 25-bp hike at the policy meeting on Thursday. In the US, the response to the banking crisis has been swift and decisive, which has helped soothe market jitters after last week's panic. Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve and five other major central banks announced coordinated action to bolster liquidity, and Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the bank system was stabilizing and she would intervene if necessary in order to protect depositors of small banks. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision later today and after massive shifts in market pricing lately, a 25-bp increase is almost a certainty. What will be of interest to investors is whether the Fed follows the stance of the ECB and avoid any direct signals about future rate moves. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2253. The next resistance line is 1.2324 There is support at 1.2132 and 1.2061
by OANDA
Gold Backs Away From Yearly Highs With Fed In The SpotlightGold prices continued to pull back on Tuesday as market sentiment improved as investors brace for the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the spot price, XAU/USD, is trading at $1,940 an ounce, nearly 2% below its opening price, having lost around $70 or 3.5% from its one-year high of $2,009 scored on Monday. The retreat in gold prices has been mainly driven by soaring U.S. Treasury yields amid some relief among investors regarding the banking crisis. The 10-year note yield has risen 10 bps to 3.583% after striking multi-month lows the previous day. The Federal Reserve two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday. After the recent developments in the banking sector, investors now speculate the FOMC will take a more cautious approach when it comes to rising rates. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 80% probability of a 25 bps hike and 20% of a no-hike decision, while a 50 bps increase looks out of the picture, but Powell and fellow policymakers could still catch markets by surprise. From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD holds a positive bias as indicators hold into positive ground on the daily chart despite the last sessions’ price pullback. Immediate support is seen at the $1,895 area, former support and 61.8% retracement of the $2,070-$1,615 decline, followed by the 20-day SMA at $1,870. Loss of the latter could deteriorate the technical setup. On the flip side, the short-term key resistance area is $1,990-$2,010. A break above this level would expose 2022 highs at the $2,070 zone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
🔥 XRP Had A Huge Day: Change Of Trend XRP has arguably been one of the weaker alts in the new year. Where most alts saw gains of well over 50%, XRP got stuck around the 25% mark... Until today. Today marks the day that XRP has broken out of a long-term resistance. Seeing the size of the candle, I'd wager that this is the start of a longer-term trend change, given that BTC will not sell off hard in the near future. In my view, it's likely that XRP will continue to move up in the near future. I'm looking at the blue area of resistance as a potential target.
Long
by FieryTrading
9
US100 awaiting POWEL speechThe calm before the storm Meanwhile, the market is waiting for what the heck he's going to say, a gold spot for trading has been created. No matter what Powell states, the price will move in one direction or another. Enjoy trading safely. Use always SL Don't bet more than 1% of your balance. Your money is finite, but the chances of making millions are Billions. Note: the trades are triggered once the price crosses the channel boundaries, thru pending orders. This is not a financial adv!
FX:NAS100
by Mat_cl
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 21st March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of instability in the market due to the SVB crisis and other banks being heavily affected by it. 2. GOLD, as a safe haven asset, flew to the highs to 2000 and is currently rejecting. 3. This is fuelled by the instability with the USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price could potentially retrace back to the H4 support level at 1959.24 before heading back up. 2. Price went parabolic to the 2000 regions. 3. Bullish pressure is still intact and will be looking for longs. Idea Looking for price to break new highs beyond 2065 and this is just the beginning. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OlympusLab
USD Hangs in the Balance: Bank Chaos vs. Inflation The US Federal Reserve is about to begin its two-day policy meeting and will announce its latest interest rate decision 48 hours later. During the meeting, officials will weigh the possibility of raising interest rates due to inflation, which is still considered high, or whether the current turmoil in financial markets should be given more weight. Unfortunately, the pre-meeting blackout period prohibits officials from commenting on the situation. UBS shares, which had dropped over 14%, managed to recover by closing 1.2% higher after the bank provided a 3 billion Swiss franc ($3.2 billion) emergency rescue package for its troubled domestic rival, Credit Suisse. The large size of Credit Suisse's balance sheet, which stands at around 530 billion Swiss francs as of the end of 2022, is a concern for the global banking system, as it is twice the size of Lehman Brothers' when it collapsed in 2008. The Federal Reserve, in response to the Credit Suisse crisis and the failures of a few US regional banks, has begun offering daily currency swaps to central banks in Canada, Britain, Japan, Switzerland, and the euro zone in order to ease funding stress in global markets. With all this going on, traders are uncertain whether the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark policy rate on Wednesday (US time). The dollar index fell below 103.5 on Monday for the third session in a row as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve might not increase rates as much as previously expected due to the banking crises. Fed funds futures reflect a 70% probability of a quarter-percentage point rate hike, with a 30% chance of no change. A significant drop in near-term inflation expectations is also contributing to the expectation of the Fed pausing its rate hikes, as expectation for the near-term inflation reached nearly a two-year low last month. In other news, oil prices declined to their lowest point in 15 months on Monday due to concerns that the risks in the global banking sector may lead to a recession. Gold prices, which had surged 6.4% in the previous week, fell to $1,980 an ounce on Monday but remained close to the one-year high of $2,009 hit earlier in the session.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
7
EUR/USD Advances Beyond 1.0700 As Investors Await FOMC VerdictThe EUR/USD pair gained ground at the start of a new week, climbing above 1.0700 as investors are betting on higher odds the Federal Reserve will raise rates at a slower pace on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0723, 0.6% above its opening price, after hitting a daily high of 1.0730 and a low of 1.0632. The financial crisis, triggered by the downfall of several U.S. banks, has lifted expectations global central bankers will take a step back in their tightening cycles. On Sunday, the Federal Reserve announced a joint-collaboration plan with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank to improve liquidity provision via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements. The move came after Swiss authorities intervened to have UBS buy Credit Suisse to prevent a disorderly bankruptcy of the latter. U.S. Treasury yields have recovered after falling sharply earlier on the day, with the 10-year note yielding 3.498% and the 2-year note rate at 3.974%. Meanwhile, Wall Street main indexes are trading in the green, reflecting the improvement in sentiment. Ahead of the FOMC verdict on monetary policy on Wednesday, the bets of a non-hike decision increased somewhat. Still, according to WIRP, investors continue to bet on higher possibilities of a 25 bps raise on Wednesday. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair's short-term outlook has turned positive according to indicators on the daily chart, while the price continues to print higher highs above its main moving averages. On the upside, short-term resistance levels are seen at the 1.0760 zone and the 1.0800 psychological level. On the flip side, support levels line up at the 20- and 100-day SMAs, currently at 1.0625 and 1.0575, respectively.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
BTCUSD will probably correct today, till the FED report on WedBTCUSD's trend on the shorter time frames is getting weaker (bearish divergence), which is OK. On the bigger timeframes, this is the 1st elliot wave of another group of waves. And based on the fibonacci retracement tool, it looks like a retracement to 26.6 is HEALTHY. I personally will not purchase my bitcoins now, I will wait till around the FED report to get a better look on the markets. I am posting a longer video tomorrow commenting on the expectations from the FED interest rates report/meeting. Make sure to follow me now, and check-in for this video (maybe I will make a stream too for Q&A).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ChemastroOfficial
6
BTC/USDT, the Fed, and what's next?#Omicronits The famous quote by Ch. Munger, "The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting," is highly relevant to the current market conditions. As an investor, patience is crucial, especially during times of turbulence and volatility. The recent instability in the banking sector has caused a ripple effect in the crypto market. The market's belief in the approaching end of the high-interest-rate policy and the beginning of quantitative easing has led to higher volatility in crypto assets. However, predicting future economic behavior is not straightforward, and it's essential to consider multiple variables. The Federal Reserve's recent actions aimed to maintain the stability of the banking system, not to fuel the economy. Despite slowing inflation, the Fed continues its restrictive monetary policy and has even temporarily implemented a form of quantitative tightening to pull capital from the market. As an investor, it's essential to keep these factors in mind and not assume that the current hyper-optimism in the crypto market is based on solid ground. Looking at the BTC/USDT chart, the current value of 28,000 seems too high, and a deeper correction may be necessary. As an investor, it's crucial to have a plan and set realistic sell-stop orders. In this case, setting a sell-stop pending order at the level of 25,750 BTC/USDT is advisable. If the market goes up during or after Powell's appearance on March 22 and hits 30,000 USDT, moving the pending order to 27,000 BTC/USDT may be a prudent move. However, if there is a consistent breakout above 30,000, it's better to wait for further developments and not take any immediate action. In conclusion, as an investor, it's essential to maintain a patient and cautious approach in the current market conditions. Following the wise words of Ch. Munger, it's not about buying and selling, but about waiting for the right opportunity to make a sound investment decision.
Short
by shardapp
2
DXY Potential Forecast | 10th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. USD continues to face uncertainty and volatility due to the SVB crisis. 2. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and the Fed Fund Rate. 3. More dovish on the USD will lead to EURUSD heading higher. 4. Fed might be restricted to hike rates by 50bps due to the instability of the banking industry in the US. Technical Confluences 1. Price rejected off the resistance at 105.3. 2. Price can potentially come lower to reach support level at 102.65. 3. Given the uncertainty and fear, DXY has reason to continue heading down. Idea DXY can tap into the support area at 102.65. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
1
Gold Shines amid Global Financial DistressCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) Gold prices surged Friday as a wave of banking crises shook global financial markets. Spot gold climbed 3.1% to $1,977.89 per ounce, its highest level since April 2022. Gold price is now within $100 of its all-time high of $2,074.88. In the futures market, the nearby April contract of COMEX gold futures settled at $1,973.5, where the far-month June 2024 contract closed at $2,076.9. The year-long Fed rate hikes cracked the US banking system. Within two weeks, we have witnessed the collapses of Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York. First Republic Bank, a mid-sized bank in California, received $30 billion emergency injection from 11 largest American banks, led by JP Morgan. Interestingly, it was J.P. Morgan who organized a $30 million rescue plan to avert the collapse of Wall Street in 1907. That crisis led to the creation of Federal Reserve System. A century later, the cost of bank bailout increases by 1,000 folds. However, bank runs have already spread. Credit Suisse, a prestigious investment bank, is under distress. On Sunday evening, fellow Swiss bank UBS announced that it is acquiring Credit Suisse. Gold Price Rises in Times of Major Crises In the past two decades, gold price peaked in times of market turbulence. • The 2008 financial crisis • The 2010 European debt crisis • The 2018-19 US-China trade conflict • The outbreak of COVID pandemic • The Russia-Ukraine conflict • The March 2023 bank run Gold price is also negatively correlated with the US dollar. Last year, when Dollar rose on the back of Fed tightening, gold took a beating. Now, as investors expect the Fed to slow rate hikes, gold shines through the chaos. Investing in Gold: what in there for you? • Diversification: Gold helps reduce the overall risk of your portfolio by providing a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation • Tax efficiency: Long-term capital gains on gold investments are taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, which is lower than 37% for other long-term capital gains • Protection against rising prices: Gold has historically been a good hedge against inflation, and it can help protect your purchasing power • Liquidity: Gold ETFs and Gold Futures are highly liquid financial instruments. Many brokers also buy and sell gold bars and gold coins, with a commission. • Hedge against difficult economic conditions: Gold is a global store of value, and it can provide financial cover during geopolitical and economic uncertainty • Portfolio diversifier: Gold can act as a hedge against inflation and deflation alike, as well as a good portfolio diversifier In a previous writing, I showed that gold did not work well as a hedge against inflation. However, gold holds up extremely well during major crises where other assets lost value. Hedging against Known and Unknown Risks Risk on, gold goes up. Risk off, gold declines. Some risks are expected, while others come as a surprise. Fed rate actions are scheduled events and can be considered known or expected risk. CME FedWatch Tool shows the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings. It analyzes the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data. As of March 19th, FedWatch estimates a 38% chance of Fed keeping the current rate unchanged at 450-475 bp, and 62% odds of increasing 25 bp to 475-500 bp. By providing $300 billion in emergency lending to member banks, the Fed has effectively put Quantitative Easing at work. In my opinion, the Fed has switched its priority from fighting inflation to crisis management. Managing the systemic risk in the US banking system outweighs the battle against inflation at this time. It’s a matter of priority. What’s unknown is the potential failure of any bank not yet exposed in the news. US banks are estimated to sit on unrealized loss in hundreds of billions of dollars in their bond portfolio, largely consisted of Treasury and US agency bonds. As the “held-to-maturity” asset will be sold or marked down, these banks could run into trouble by a run of depositors and investors. In this unusual time, no news is good news. Short-term Trading Strategies The upcoming FOMC meeting on March 22nd make a compelling reason for event-driven trades on Micro Gold Futures. Here is my logic: • If the Fed keeps the rate unchanged, stock market would rally. As a major risk is removed from the financial system, gold price would fall • If the Fed raises 25 bps, stock market would fall, and gold price would rally, potentially breaking the current record high Micro Gold Futures (MGC) contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces. At $1,993.4, an April 2023 contract (MGCJ3) is valued at $19,934. Initiating a long or short position requires a margin of $800. This is approximately 4% of contract notional value. If gold price moves up to $2,050, a long futures position would gain $566. Relative to the initial margin, this would equate to a return of +70.8%, excluding commissions. If gold price moves down to $1,900, a short futures position would gain $934, a theoretical return of +116.8%. Unexpected market event could be a trigger for gold price to rally. An event-driven trade idea could be constructed around it. In my opinion, comparing to the distress of regional banks, the systematic risks triggered by a Big Bank failure could send global market in shock at ten times the magnitude. If the Fed raises rate next week, I expect more bank failures to coming in the next few months. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 20th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. ECB most recently hiked rates by 50bps. 2. USD continues to face uncertainty and volatility due to the SVB crisis. 3. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and the Fed Fund Rate. 4. More dovish on the USD will lead to EURUSD heading higher. Technical Confluences 1. Support level at 1.0519 where price rejected off. 2. Price can potentially come up to tap into the resistance level on the H4 at 1.0794. 3. Price action continues to be very choppy. Idea EURUSD have further potential for bulls and I am anticipating for price to continue heading up. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
2
$BTC $170K by Halloween 2023, believe it. If the same technicals of growth, volatility, and previous lows and highs math estimates are correct, then as strange as it may sound, Bitcoin is 23% likely to reach $170,000 by Oct 31st 2023. Not to mention the fertile environment for Bitcoin given; 1. The recent turmoil in the regional banking world and the lack of trust of the banking system being reinforced. 2. The decline of BTC in 2022 was arguably related to the massive interest rate hikes by the Fed, and they (The FED) are now likely to stop raising rates due to #1. 3. The correlation btwn Gold and Bitcoin has re-emerged in recent weeks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jgeno
The FED HAS already pivoted! Who cares what the FED does next?Apologies for the click-baity title, but I did want to get your attention to make (once again) my point that inflation is ON now and that the FED has actually pivoted while many are watching and don't see it that way. Let me explain. Back when the FED started raising rates rapidly I grew worried that at this unprecedented pace of rate hikes, something would break. I stated this all along through each of my post. Foolish people and businesses simply do not have the acumen to hedge against the rapidity of dried-up liquidity in the markets. I did not know the banks would become the first culprit exposed in their foolish investment endeavors. But here we are. Banks are failing because of their own stupidity and guess who gets to pay for it once again? That's right, you and I do through the continued devaluation of our U.S. dollar. "But the dollar's getting stronger", you emphatically retort. Yes. It was. As the FED moved to increase rates in a reactionary manner, as they always are, the dollar did gain strength and is currently fairly strong, relatively speaking. However, things will soon change and many do not even know it as they are focused on the wrong indicator, FED rate hike action and future interest rates. While this is certainly still important, it does not tell the whole story. As you know, I have been calling for a pause or pivot from the FED soon. That pivot has already come. "How so?", you asked. The FED has not articulated strong indicative language regarding a pause or pivot. That's true. But while the banks were failing, the FED did begin to guarantee depositors their money due to 'systemic risks'. I've heard this before (think 2008 and the BIG 3). In guaranteeing depositors their funds, the FED mushroomed its balance sheet by roughly $300 billion dollars last week alone! And this may just be the beginning! Incredible. This is the pivot that I was looking for from the FED. So, while everyone else continues to focus on what the FED will do next in terms of interest rates, savvy investors have already spotted the change and recognize that it's now inflation ON! This subtle (or not so subtle, pending perspective) change in direction correlates with three important thesis points that I have been making all along: That something will break That the FED will pause/pivot That we will see a blowoff top in the US stock market It also aligns with current technicals. As you can observe from the chart above, price action has retested our macro-downtrend line precisely as anticipated, has bounced from there as anticipated, and is currently trending up as anticipated. I do believe this is the beginning of our blowoff top with a price target of US500 to be at or around $5,500 to $6k by early to late fall. Maybe early winter. Timing is difficult. Best to you all, Stew
ULong
by stewdamus
2
GBPUSD Potential Forecast | 17th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Inflation in GBP continues to be heightened. 2. A lot of instability in the US due to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis triggering a chain reaction to many other banks involved. Technical Confluences 1. Price has broken the uptrend as seen by the trendline. 2. Price can potentially retrace back to the trendline or the H4 support level at 1.1961 before heading up. 3. Structure has been broken to the upside. 4. Price is resting well above the ichimoku cloud. Idea GBPUSD can create a new higher high on the larger timeframe and given the instability surrounding the USD, GBPUSD have potential to continue heading up. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab