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AUD/USD slides on hawkish FedspeakThe Australian dollar has been relatively quiet during the week but is getting pummelled on Friday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6685, down 0.84% on the day. The sharp drop can be attributed to technical factors and hawkish comments from Fed members on Thursday. The Federal Reserve is not yet ready to wrap up its current rate-tightening cycle and has sent out the troops to blitz the airwaves and reiterate the Fed's hawkish stance. On Thursday, Fed member Bostic said he favors one more rate hike and then an extended pause, saying the tightening will take time to work its way through the economy. Bostic noted that the banking crisis had led to tighter financial conditions, which has made the Fed's work easier. Fed member Mester also came out in support of more rate hikes but suggested that the economy would have a soft landing. A day earlier, Fed member Williams said "inflation is still too high" and the Fed would use monetary policy to "restore price stability". Williams added that he expected inflation to drop to 3.25% this year and hit the 2% target by 2025. The markets are hearing this message loud and clear, and have priced in a 25-basis point hike in May at 81%, according to the CME Group. Where the markets and the Fed differ is on rate cuts - the markets are anticipating cuts before the end of the year, while Fed members have said that it does not see the economy stalling to such an extent as to justify rate cuts. . AUD/USD Technical There is resistance at 0.6803 and 0.6896 AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6711. Next, there is support at 0.6618
by OANDA
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 19th April 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Stronger dollar and bullish sentiments in USD is being brought forward from last week. 2. However, given the interest rate differential between the 2 currencies, EURUSD is anticipated to continue bullish. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term support at 1.08848 2. Price is still forming HH and HL, on a bullish trend 3. We could see the retracement head in line with the 0.786 level on the fibs Idea Looking for price to tap the area of support at 1.08848 before heading bullish. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
Strong Banks / Point of inflection for the Markets Bank Earnings have been great! Though, The market wasn’t overly thrilled about it. We believe this is due in part to the uncertainty it caused regarding the fed rate path. The bank failure(s) that occurred, and fear of continued failures, cast doubt on the feds ability to continue to raise rates. This elevated markets, in our opinion, in conjunction with favorable inflation and NFP reports showing a cooling economy.… then the bank earnings arrived snd acted as a headwind to the indexes. What we think is important to watch for: 1) ES1! 4200 This region has been a repeated battleground for Price action. and a close above it .. or failure at it, would be a good indicator for midterm direction. 2) FED comments on the banks earnings Overall bullish on the market- but I do think we may range for a bit longer. 3) XLF may yield sustained alpha
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WillNixTrading
Gold under the pressure of a strong DollarHey Traders, Gold was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out after some hawkish comments from Fed Waller about the US monetary policy and the necessity of further rate hikes which have triggered some USD strength. USD Does correlate negatively with metals like Gold so that put more weight on it. Technically we have noticed the breakout of the uptrend so we will be monitoring a potential retrace of the trend from 2000 Support and resistance zone. Trade safe, Joe.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by JoeChampion
23
Relationship of the Fed interest rate + SP 500 index Logarithm. The time frame on both charts is 1 month. It is worth considering as an indicator of large market cycles in general. I will not describe it, because I have already said a lot about it before. There is a correlation, which is logical, but not always. There are also reasons for this, which I have voiced before. Expensive and cheap money - the regulation of the growth and decline of the U.S. economy (the whole world). The Fed Funds rate , is the target interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the basis of which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other for short periods (usually overnight). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy setting body of the Federal Reserve, meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate can affect short-term rates on consumer loans and credit cards, as well as the stock market. By law, banks must maintain a reserve equal to a certain percentage of their deposits in a Federal Reserve Bank account. The amount of money a bank must keep in its account at the Fed is known as the reserve requirement and is based on a percentage of the bank's total deposits. The rate target set by the Federal Reserve is achieved through open market operations. Since the Fed cannot set the rate's exact value through such operations, the actual value may fluctuate near the target rate. The Fed Funds rate is one of the most important interest rates in the U.S. economy because it affects monetary and financial conditions, which in turn affect critical aspects of the overall economy, including employment, economic growth and inflation. SP 500 Index . S&P 500 (SPX) is a stock index whose basket includes 503 stocks of the 500 selected publicly traded companies with the largest capitalization on U.S. stock exchanges. The list belongs to and is compiled by Standard & Poor's. The index is published since March 4, 1957. Major trend (long term) SP500 index. The entire trend. 100th Anniversary Plot of the index during the "Great Depression." SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
SP:SPX
by SpartaBTC
19
NAS100 | RECESSION |DECRYPTERSHi Welcome to Team Decrypters The Chart Aligns completely with "FAMOUS Wall street cheat sheet" What Features coincides with charts ?? 1-It give a proper DIP 2-A HUGE MULTI Y ear Rally 3 -Covid Crash Dip 4-Top Blow 5- Creating low and than Lower LOW 6-Multi months consolidations ( with in a continuation Pattern) Lastly , Using Pure Technical niche we get Target :- "HEIGHT of Flag" = "Target of Flag" Surprisingly That Target is Exactly on the top of COVID PEAK Which further Aligns with FED PRINTING OF MONEY , So FED need to Fill that GAP For example:- if you input 100kW of Energy and The out put will be Same 100KW ( in Other form) The printed Money should Be Reversed in Same Way Fundamental Reason :- We think if Recession comes which will make $$$$ TO RALLY ABOUT 8% -12 % Fed Agree with recession Also they need Strong $$ to crush economy , making consumer confidence Down and thus making consumer spending Down as well "CAUSING STOCK MARKET CRASH " NOTE :- THIS MULTI MONTHS PLAN ONLY USED BE USED AS A "QUARTERLY BIAS"
NShort
by DECRYPTERS
Dollar Hits Support. Now Bounce. Everything Else? Pulls Back.Traders, I said it all in the title. Yes, the dollar has now conclusively formed a very ominous Head and Shoulders pattern. The dollar will die once (not if) it breaks that neckline. But do I think that is going to happen immediately. I think you all know the answer. News has hinted at a Fed rate hike pause this week. Next week another news story will come out. I think caution is warranted here. Personally, I'm going to sit the sideline this weekend and play it safe. There will always be more opportunity in the future. Always. Best, Stew
TVC:DXY
by stewdamus
2
DXY Potential Forecast | Post CPI | 13th April 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. CPI m/m printed 0.1% compared to forecasted at 0.2% 2. Fed hikes effects really slowing inflation down 3. USD fell shorting after, signifying the slowing down of inflation at a faster pace than what the market has been pricing in. Technical Confluences 1. Price rejected off resistance at 102.8. 2. Price looks good to form a new higher timeframe low and continue its bearish trajectory. 3. There has not been a strong confluence for any longs on the DXY thus far. Idea We are looking for price to continue its bearish trajectory till 101.67 and the probability of it forming a new low is now high. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
US Inflation Slows for Ninth Month: What's the Plan, Jay Powell?The US annual inflation rate has slowed down for the ninth month in a row, hitting 5% in March of 2023. While this is the lowest it's been since May of 2021, it's still well above the Fed's target of 2%. Investors are trying to figure out when the central bank will put the brakes on its hiking campaign to slow inflation. The March FOMC minutes (released this morning) revealed that some Federal Reserve policymakers discussed hitting the pause button on interest rate increases, following the collapse of two regional banks. However, ultimately, all policymakers decided that tackling high inflation was still the top priority. In the end, they went ahead with a rate hike, despite the potential risks Complicating matters, core CPI (which excludes food and energy components) has gone up to 5.6%, after rising by 5.5% in February. This has led some people to believe that more tightening is in the cards. Initially, money markets thought that the Fed might not raise interest rates in May, but expectations have since risen to 70.5%. The Dollar index remains at its lowest since February 2nd, steady near 101.5. As for Canada, things are looking up - the Bank of Canada has left its key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50% as expected, while curbing language warning of a potential recession. The Canadian dollar has responded positively, inching up to around 1.34 per USD. Meanwhile, the British pound has risen towards $1.25, nearing a ten-month high of $1.2525 that was touched on April 4. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has stated that he doesn't see any signs of a repeat of the 2007/8 global financial crisis, which is reassuring news for investors. They're betting that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates to combat inflation, adding some fuel to the GBP.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Fed v.s Market: the fight may last for a whileAfter the Non-farm payroll event last week, which saw 236,000 jobs added through March, it is clear that the job market is still creating many jobs compared to pre-COVID levels. However, the market has been experiencing some short-squeezing from yields to the dollar. The reason for this short-squeezing can be attributed to the mispricing between Fed fund futures, which are giving a dovish perspective beyond May, and the Fed's view from its last meeting, which hinted at least one more rate hike. However, with two holidays in a row right at NFP last week, the short-squeezing action was impaired after the news, and the market quickly came back to price in the CPI tomorrow, as well as retail sales on Friday. The Fed fund futures dropped a few percentage points for a 0.25% chance of a rate hike in May and the dollar also retreated. While tomorrow's CPI's headline may slow down and be close to the market forecast with a 0.1-0.2% m/m gain due to some correction from the energy price for the period back then, the service and rental costs are back, and they will continue to haunt the core CPI, which may print a 0.4-0.5% m/m gain for last month. From this perspective, the market is likely to price in the headline instead of the core, as the media would cover that number more, and it may continue to extend the mispricing between the Fed fund rates and the reality that the Fed may continue to have at least one more hike provided a still-hot labor market and stubborn inflation. Another reason for expanding the mispricing is retail sales on Friday, which may not meet expectations and give the market another reason to beg for Fed to ease. However, it is unlikely that the Fed will reduce that soon. Remember how eagerly people talked about a 0.5% rate hike for the last meeting before the banking crisis? It has only been a few weeks since the latest news on the bank, and things are calm, and the Fed is confident in containing liquidity issues. So things will be back on track, along with Fed's hiking. The more mismatching there is between the market's expectations and reality, which the Fed may continue to do, the more significant the opportunity when going against the crowd. In short, the yield will gradually come back, provided that the banking crisis is over and there are no more or fewer deposit drains. Then, the other assets follow the yields then. 
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DatTong
DXY Potential Forecast | Pre CPI | 11th April 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. CPI tomorrow will give greater clarity to the direction of the USD. 2. Last week's NFP result was positive and bullish for the USD, with unemployment rate falling to 3.5% yet again. 3. CPI m/m forecasted at 0.2% compared to previous 0.4%, market has been pricing in a further slow down in CPI. 4. CPI reading would provide insights to the next FOMC meeting and whether Fed continues to hike or pauses. 5. Core CPI m/m forecasted at 0.4% compared to previous 0.5%. 6. All in all, inflation has been slowing down and Olympus Labs forecast that the road to inflationary cooling will be a smooth one from here on out. Technical Confluences 1. Price rejected off resistance at 102.8. 2. DXY still bearish on H4 timeframe. 3. Price could potentially tap into the support at 101.67. Idea We are looking for price to continue its bearish trajectory till 101.67 and potentially form a new low. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
USD/JPY - Yen slides as Ueda says no plans for policy shiftBank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke at his first news conference as head of the central bank today. It wasn't quite a State of the Union address, but Ueda's message was clear - the current monetary policy was appropriate and he had no plans to make any major shifts. There has been strong speculation that Ueda will make some significant moves, perhaps not right away but in the next few months. After years of battling deflation, Japan is facing inflation which has risen above the BoJ's 2% target. The US/Japan rate differential has been widening as the Fed continues to raise rates while the BoJ has capped yields on 10-year government bonds and interest rates remain negative. The changing of the guard at the BoJ seemed to some as an opportunity for BOJ policy makers to take some steps toward normalization, such as tweaking or even removing yield curve control. Ueda poured cold water on this sentiment, stating that, “Right now, the yield curve control is considered most appropriate for the economy while tending to market functionality”. Ueda's message of "stay tuned for more of the same" has lowered expectations of a policy shift at the April 28th meeting and the yen has responded with sharp losses. Japan's consumer confidence gave policy makers something to cheer about, rising to 33.9 in March, vs. 33.1 prior and 30.9 anticipated. This was the highest level since May 2022, although consumer confidence remains deep in negative territory, below the 50-level which separates contraction from expansion. The week ended with a solid US employment report. The economy added 236,000 jobs last month, within expectations and softer than the upwardly revised 326,000 reading in February. The labour market is cooling but has been surprisingly resilient to relentless rate hikes and the odds of a 25-bp rate hike have increased to 68% according to the CME Group, compared to around 50% prior to the employment report release. There is resistance at 133.74 and 135.31 132.18 and 131.67 are providing support
by OANDA
Rethinking Fed Intervention: Wages, Inflation, and AIIn light of the precarious global economy and numerous contributing factors, such as deglobalization, the inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine, an aging population, and an overwhelming amount of debt, the Federal Reserve's role and efficacy in the current economic climate have come into question. Drawing on Jeff Snider's work, it is increasingly evident that the Federal Reserve has not completely controlled the financial system. Despite their efforts to manipulate interest rates, external factors and market forces continuously challenge the Fed's authority. The market's current outlook suggests that the Fed may be forced to cut rates soon, indicating that its strategy of hiking rates may not have been the best approach. The central premise that the Fed should intervene to suppress inflation by keeping wages low is fundamentally flawed. Higher wages can lead to increased productivity investments, reducing the need for labor and raising living standards over time. However, hiking interest rates can stifle investment, hindering economic growth and exacerbating inequality. In recent months, inflation has decreased independently, without the direct influence of the Fed's actions, suggesting that the economy may be self-correcting. However, this natural deflationary pressure could be disrupted by external factors, such as the tightening of lending standards brought on by the mini-banking crisis. The ongoing threat of AI-driven job losses and an impending recession further complicates the situation for American workers. Jeff Snider's research at Eurodollar University offers valuable insights into the complex relationship between the Fed and inflation. Snider argues that the Fed's actions may not be the primary cause of inflation, as it has limited control over the money supply. Instead, he posits that the global financial system, specifically the eurodollar market, plays a more significant role in influencing inflation rates. As we progress into the exponential age, the rapid advancement of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to significant disruptions. However, there are potentially positive aspects to these developments. AI could revolutionize industries, streamline processes, and create new opportunities. The widespread adoption of AI can lead to increased efficiency, improved decision-making, and the automation of repetitive tasks, ultimately driving economic growth. The productivity gains associated with AI could offset some of the negative impacts of the current economic climate, such as job losses and wage stagnation. In summary, the belief that the Fed should intervene to suppress wages to tackle inflation is fundamentally misguided. Such intervention can have numerous negative consequences, including hindering investment and stifling economic growth. In contrast, allowing wages to rise can lead to increased productivity investments and improved living standards. To effectively address inflation, it is essential to consider a more comprehensive range of factors beyond the Fed's actions and recognize the importance of encouraging sustainable economic growth through policies promoting higher wages and productivity investments. Policymakers and financial analysts must carefully consider the consequences of their actions and their impact on the broader economy and society. Thanks to Michael Green, aka @profplum99, for inspiring me to write this analysis :) twitter.com
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro