Get started

Fed

XAUUSD - gold waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its medium-term bearish channel. In the authentic failure of the support area, we can see the continuation of the gold decline and the demand zone. Within the zone of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the resistance range is broken, you can sell in the supply zone. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for today. According to a recent report by Crédit Agricole, it is expected that during the December meeting, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25-4.50%. While this rate cut has largely been priced into the market, the Fed’s monetary statement may carry a hawkish tone. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will indicate slower rate cuts in 2025 due to resilient economic conditions and persistent inflation. Crédit Agricole predicts that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will likely hint at pausing rate cuts early in 2025. Additionally, recent employment and inflation data from November suggest that the Fed is in a position to implement this rate cut. However, the risks associated with persistent inflation indicate that the rate-cutting cycle will progress more gradually. Crédit Agricole estimates that interest rate projections for 2025 could be revised to 3.625% and for 2026 to 3.125%. These figures represent reductions of 0.75% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, showing smaller decreases compared to earlier forecasts. According to the Financial Times, Israeli negotiators have met with mediators in Doha to discuss a ceasefire with Hamas and the release of hostages from Gaza. These talks are taking place ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. Both Israeli and U.S. officials remain cautiously optimistic about reaching an agreement, though disagreements over key details persist. The Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, focusing on resolving major points of contention. It is expected that both sides will respond to a recent mediator proposal, which includes a six-to-eight-week ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. These discussions have intensified following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Steven Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, has met with Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s Prime Minister to advance the agreement. Despite progress, significant challenges remain, including disagreements over the number of hostages to be freed and the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza. While Hamas has softened its stance somewhat, substantial differences still exist. UBS, in its recent report, has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. A key factor highlighted by UBS is the continued demand for gold from central banks, driven by the declining value of the dollar and diversification of reserves. UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong throughout 2025, supporting elevated gold prices. Moreover, investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy uncertainties will play a significant role in maintaining high gold prices. UBS points to ongoing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle Eastern tensions, and uncertain fiscal and trade policies under the incoming administration of Donald Trump. These factors could boost investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar are additional factors that could drive gold prices higher. UBS predicts that interest rate cuts will continue and the dollar will weaken further, which will bolster demand for gold. In addition to gold, UBS has identified opportunities in copper and other transition metals. Global investments in power generation, energy storage, and electric transportation are expected to serve as long-term drivers of demand for these metals.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD- silver, waiting for the correction process to continue?!Silver is below EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If the decline continues, we can see the demand zone and buy within that range with the appropriate risk reward. Stabilization of silver above the resistance range will provide us with the way for silver to rise to the supply range. With the Federal Reserve beginning its interest rate cuts in September and expectations for this trend to continue, markets are now shifting their focus toward determining the neutral rate. The neutral rate refers to the benchmark interest rate in a normal economic cycle that neither accelerates economic growth nor slows it down. Federal Reserve officials have emphasized that predicting this rate is currently not feasible. They insist that it is necessary to observe how economic data reacts to each stage of rate cuts before making any conclusions about the neutral rate. Nevertheless, bond market fluctuations suggest that this rate may be higher in the current cycle compared to previous ones. On average, FOMC members estimate a long-term neutral rate close to 3%, although this figure remains uncertain. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to decline to 4.3% within three months and 4.25% within a year. These figures were 4.25% and 4.1% in the November survey, and 3.8% and 3.75% in October.In a note from Citi, it was stated that demand for gold and silver is likely to remain strong until U.S. and global economic growth stabilizes. Additionally, buying these precious metals as a hedge against declining equity values will persist until U.S. interest rates reach the neutral level. This week, besides the FOMC’s decision on interest rates, other key economic data will be released. These include the GDP report, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and the latest findings on consumer sentiment. Bloomberg has reported that Wall Street’s perspective on the U.S. dollar is shifting. Policies introduced by Donald Trump and further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025 could weaken the dollar’s strength. Analysts from Morgan Stanley to J.P. Morgan predict that the U.S. dollar will peak by mid-next year before entering a downward trajectory. Similarly, Société Générale has forecasted a 6% decline in the dollar index by the end of 2025. Bloomberg also noted that Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, is expected to announce another quarter-point rate cut. However, the bigger question is what signals the Fed will provide regarding the future policy path and whether this will heighten tensions between Jerome Powell and President-elect Donald Trump. Following a full percentage point reduction in borrowing costs since mid-September, Powell and his colleagues are expected to pause rate cuts for now. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a holding pattern during its January meeting and reassess inflation and labor market conditions in March. This approach could lead to friction between the FOMC and Trump’s White House. Known for his preference for low rates and frequent complaints when he feels rates are not low enough, Trump’s arrival in office just over a week before the January meeting may amplify these tensions.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
AUDUSD - What message will the Federal Reserve's dotplot have?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the channel ceiling, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the midline and bottom of the channel. Investors are cautiously anticipating the key decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. It is widely expected that the central bank will announce its third rate cut of the year and provide projections for 2025. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that market participants are eagerly awaiting updates from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and any hints regarding the trajectory of future rate cuts. He stated, “We expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut this week, followed by four additional cuts next year.” The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting is anticipated to confirm a quarter-point rate reduction while also providing updated projections for potential rate cuts in 2025 and possibly 2026. Meanwhile, the U.S. services sector has expanded at its fastest pace since October 2021, injecting fresh momentum into the economy, even as the manufacturing sector faces a deeper downturn. The S&P Global services index rose from 56.1 to 58.5 in December, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, marking its lowest level in 55 months. These figures highlight a widening gap between sustained growth in the services sector and further declines in manufacturing. Factory output and order volumes have dropped at a faster pace, while the cost of imported raw materials from China has risen due to concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration. Following the release of this data, projections for real private gross investment growth in the fourth quarter dropped from 2.4% to 1.2%, while forecasts for real government spending growth in the same period rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. Additionally, U.S. holiday retail sales for 2024 are expected to reach a remarkable $979 billion. According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, declining demand poses the most significant risk to global commodity markets if the U.S. imposes new tariffs and affected countries retaliate. Fitch has warned that potential U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could weaken global economic growth, particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities. This could exert significant pressure on base metals, chemical products, and oil markets. However, Fitch also noted that China’s economic stimulus measures could offset some of this pressure. At the same time, new tariffs on specific goods, such as steel and aluminum, could increase price volatility and disrupt trade routes. Bloomberg reported that J.P. Morgan believes the upward trend in European government bonds is nearing its end. The firm now views Australia as the next promising market for stronger performance. Kim Crawford of J.P. Morgan explained that there is limited room for further gains in Europe, as swap markets have already priced in the potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank. He also highlighted that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance, which has yet to reduce rates in this cycle, positions Australian bonds for stronger growth compared to other developed markets.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Get Ready for a MASSIVE Week Ahead! Watch now! 🚨 Get Ready for a MASSIVE Week Ahead! 🚨 Don't miss out on preparing for the upcoming week and the year-end Santa Claus Rally! Make sure to watch this entire video to stay ahead of the game. 📊 In this video, we'll cover: -Major economic news and events -Market trends for NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY , and AMEX:IWM -Latest updates on all current H5 Trades such as NYSE:HIMS NASDAQ:MBLY NYSE:SQ NASDAQ:MARA NYSE:FUBO & more! This video is JAM-PACKED with insights and valuable gems you don't want to miss! 💎 Buckle up and check it out now! 👇
NASDAQ:MARALong
by RonnieV29
58
XAUUSD - Gold went below $2700!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. If we maintain the drawn channel, we can witness the continuation of gold's decline and limited visibility of the bottom of the channel. Within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. In case of valid failure of the ceiling of the channel, it is possible to sell within the supply zones. Gold demonstrated a strong performance earlier last week, surging nearly $100 from its weekly low and sparking fresh optimism among traders. However, higher-than-expected inflation data and a stronger U.S. dollar reversed the market dynamics, putting renewed selling pressure on precious metals. The latest weekly Kitco survey revealed that industry analysts are evenly split between bullish and bearish views, with a notable portion of respondents adopting a neutral stance. Meanwhile, retail traders’ optimism for gold remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Marc Chandler, CEO of Bannockburn Global Forex, stated, “Gold saw an $85 rally in the first three days of the week, likely driven by reports of China’s central bank (PBOC) adding gold to its reserves for the first time in months. The metal reached $2,726 per ounce on the spot market on Thursday, marking its highest level in over a month, but then turned downward.” He further added, “Some analysts attributed the price decline to stronger-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Nonetheless, gold ended the week on a positive note, breaking its two-week losing streak.” Chandler also noted, “Since late October, this marks only the second positive week for gold. A cautious approach by the Federal Reserve to rate cuts—indicating that rates will be reduced but further cuts are unlikely next year, with a potential halt to tightening policies in early 2025—could pave the way for another test of the $2,600 level.” This week, the Federal Reserve is set to hold a two-day policy meeting, with monetary decisions expected to be announced on Wednesday. The central bank is anticipated to reduce the interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Additionally, the Fed will release its updated “Summary of Economic Projections,” known as the dot plot. In September, the median Fed officials’ projection for interest rates by the end of 2025 stood at 3.4%. If this forecast is revised down by more than 1%, the U.S. dollar could face immediate downward pressure. In such a scenario, U.S. Treasury yields may decline, boosting gold prices. Market participants will also closely monitor remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Should Powell strike a cautious tone regarding further monetary easing and emphasize a gradual approach, the dollar may maintain its strength against its rivals. Conversely, if he raises concerns about declining labor market conditions and their potential adverse impact on economic growth, the dollar could come under selling pressure. Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the final revision of Q3 GDP data, and on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November will be published. Market reactions to the PCE inflation report are likely to remain muted after the Fed’s announcement. According to Bloomberg, Wall Street is shifting its outlook on the U.S. dollar, as Trump’s policies and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 could weigh on the greenback. Analysts from Morgan Stanley to JPMorgan predict that the global reserve currency will peak by mid-2025 and then begin to decline. Société Générale also forecasts a 6% drop in the U.S. Dollar Index by the end of next year.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq, the only green index last week!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zones, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. The valid failure of the previous ATH will provide the conditions for the continuation of the rise of this index. The Economist predicts that as 2025 approaches, the U.S. economy is in a highly favorable position. It expects a soft economic landing in the upcoming year, meaning the U.S. will successfully reduce inflation to its 2% target without harming economic growth. While analysts previously forecasted a recession for the U.S., Washington now stands out as the only major economy whose output exceeds pre-pandemic trends. This year, the Nasdaq index has significantly outperformed other major U.S. stock market indices. The primary reason is the heavy weighting of tech stocks in the index. Technology stocks, particularly the “Big Seven” tech giants, have seen remarkable growth due to the AI revolution and market optimism.On the other hand, the Dow Jones index, which is more focused on industrial stocks, has lagged behind Nasdaq despite notable gains. The United States is preparing new restrictions on AI chips to block China’s indirect access to this technology. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, these restrictions aim to prevent China from using hidden pathways to obtain AI chips. Sources familiar with the plan revealed that the U.S. intends to hold companies like Google and Microsoft accountable for managing access to advanced AI chips. The most significant economic event this week is the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2024, set to be announced on Wednesday. Markets are already anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut, but attention will focus on the Fed’s policy statement and Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference. Traders will look for clues about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook for the upcoming year. Additionally, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, which could have a global market impact. Key economic data on American consumer health will also be released this week. On Tuesday, the November retail sales report will provide fresh insights into consumer behavior during the holiday season. Moreover, on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—a key inflation metric closely watched by the Fed—will be released, potentially clarifying the direction of future monetary policy. Other important economic data include the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the S&P Global PMI leading index, both set for release on Monday. On Thursday, critical figures such as the final Q3 GDP growth rate, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, November existing home sales, and weekly jobless claims will also be published. Analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but the pace of rate cuts in 2025 is expected to be slow. Due to sticky inflation and some inflationary policies from Donald Trump, economists anticipate only three rate cuts in 2025. The U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by the country’s economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, believe buying the dollar at this point may be a mistake, as there is a downside risk for the currency. Based on their discussions, many investors expect the dollar index to rise further. Morgan Stanley argues that positive news is already fully priced into the dollar and that markets may be overestimating the speed, scope, and impact of economic measures.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
EUR/USD: Awaiting the Fed for the Christmas Rally!EUR/USD continues to show weakness, hovering near weekly lows at 1.0453, reflecting an unfavorable macroeconomic outlook for the euro. The ECB's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, combined with the removal of the term "restrictive" in its monetary policy stance and the projection of inflation nearing 2% on a sustainable basis, indicates a less aggressive approach by the central bank, with negative implications for the euro. Christine Lagarde also highlighted downside risks to economic growth, amplifying concerns about the Eurozone. On the U.S. front, a higher-than-expected PPI and an increase in initial jobless claims suggest a mix of inflationary pressures and potential signs of labor market softening. The dollar benefits from strong demand driven by these economic dynamics and the perception of U.S. resilience compared to the Eurozone. Technically, the pair remains in a clear downtrend. In the short term, focus shifts to Federal Reserve statements and U.S. inflation data, which could further strengthen the dollar if they confirm a more robust economic context in the U.S. compared to Europe.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD - gold will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve!Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. If we maintain the drawn channel, we can witness the continuation of gold's decline and limited visibility of the bottom of the channel. Within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If it returns to the ceiling of the channel, it is possible to sell within the supply zone. 1. UBS Gold Forecast: UBS has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900. This prediction is based on factors such as the rising U.S. debt, strong demand from central banks, and declining interest rates. The institution also anticipates that U.S. inflation will decrease to 3% by the end of 2024, 2.6% by the end of 2025, and 2.5% throughout 2027. These figures are significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, suggesting that persistent inflation may pose a significant obstacle to the Fed’s efforts to control it. 2. U.S. CPI Report: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November highlighted the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, the details of the report appeared somewhat reassuring. CIBC Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 0.25% in its December meeting, though subsequent rate cuts may be delayed due to the economy’s continued growth. 3. Ray Dalio on Gold: Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, referred to Bitcoin as a hard asset and stated that he prefers Bitcoin and gold over debt-based assets. He expressed concerns about a potential global debt crisis and emphasized the importance of shifting investments toward hard assets. Dalio pointed to unprecedented levels of debt in major countries such as the U.S. and China, deeming these debt levels unsustainable.Speaking at a financial conference in Abu Dhabi, he remarked, “It is impossible for these countries to avoid a debt crisis in the coming years, which will likely lead to a significant depreciation of their currencies.” 4. Dalio’s Evolving Stance on Bitcoin: Previously, Dalio believed that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin would not achieve the success many had hoped for. However, in recent years, he has become a prominent advocate of Bitcoin. In 2022, Dalio suggested allocating up to 2% of an investment portfolio to Bitcoin and gold as a reasonable strategy to combat inflation. He also reiterated his preference for gold over Bitcoin while emphasizing the importance of portfolio diversification. 5. Peter Schiff’s Warning on Bitcoin: Peter Schiff, a prominent gold advocate, has warned that creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. could have negative consequences. On December 9, Schiff posted on the social media platform X, suggesting that the Biden administration should sell all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government before leaving office. He stated, “This move would not only help reduce the 2024 budget deficit but also put an end to all the nonsense about establishing a ‘strategic reserve’ of Bitcoin, which is detrimental.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
USDCHF - Looking for a weaker franc?!The USDCHF currency pair is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If the upward movement continues, we can see the midline of the channel and the supply zone and sell within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. A downward correction towards the demand zones will provide us with the next buying positions for this currency pair. 1. U.S. Budget Deficit: The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit for November reached $367 billion, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the previous year. This rise is primarily attributed to calendar adjustments in benefit payments, which led to approximately $80 billion in additional government spending compared to November 2023. 2. BNP Paribas on Trump’s Tariff Policies: BNP Paribas believes market analysts have underestimated the implications of Trump’s tariff policies and need to take them more seriously. The bank predicts that Trump will implement a significant portion of his tariff threats, even if not entirely. BNP Paribas anticipates these policies will cause a permanent shock to consumer prices in the U.S. while having a temporary effect on inflation. Additionally, the bank expects the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate to remain at 4.5% in 2025, with the U.S. dollar likely to strengthen further, particularly against the Chinese yuan, Mexican peso, and Canadian dollar. 3. Swiss National Bank Cuts Interest Rates: On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut its interest rate by 50 basis points, marking the largest rate reduction in a decade. This move was aimed at staying ahead of potential rate cuts by other central banks and curbing the rising value of the Swiss franc.Most economists had predicted a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points. This reduction represents the most significant decrease in borrowing costs since the SNB’s emergency rate cut in January 2015. With inflationary pressures subsiding, the SNB opted for further monetary easing. Inflation in Switzerland fell to 0.7% in November and has remained within the bank’s target range of 0–2% since May 2023. The 0.5% rate cut aims to further stimulate the economy and boost labor market activity. 4. Remarks by SNB President: Thomas Schlegel, president of the Swiss National Bank, stated that the bank considers all aspects of the franc’s value, not just its exchange rate against the euro. While acknowledging the effectiveness of negative interest rates, Schlegel emphasized that the SNB does not favor them but would resort to such measures again if necessary, as they have helped reduce the franc’s attractiveness. 5. Managing the Swiss Franc’s Value: The Swiss franc, known as a global safe-haven currency, often appreciates during periods of market volatility, prompting the SNB to invest significant effort in managing its value. However, UBS has noted that this issue is no longer a major concern: “While the franc has strengthened against the euro, it has weakened against the U.S. dollar, maintaining a relatively stable trade-weighted exchange rate.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
Gold Supported by Fundamentals, Testing Key Technical ResistanceTechnical Analysis Gold is trading at $2,719, approaching a critical resistance level at $2,735 (Fib 0.786). A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for further upside toward $2,743 and $2,758, marking significant levels for long-term trend continuation. On the daily chart, the price has held firmly above the 50-day SMA, supported by a bullish RSI, indicating the potential for continued strength. - Key Resistances : - $2,735 (Fib 0.786). - $2,743 and $2,758. - Key Supports : - $2,700 (short-term support). - $2,693 (Fib 0.618). In the short term, gold has encountered resistance at $2,720 and shows signs of a possible pullback. The RSI in the overbought zone suggests that a correction toward $2,700 and potentially $2,693 is likely before any continuation to the upside. --- Fundamental Analysis Gold prices remain near two-week highs, supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Markets are now pricing a 95% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed next week , per the CME FedWatch tool, with a further 22% chance of another cut in January. Key Developments Driving Gold: 1. Chinese Central Bank Gold Buying: The People's Bank of China resumed gold purchases in November, adding 160,000 fine troy ounces to its reserves. This significant move has bolstered global gold demand and added upward momentum to prices. 2. Middle East Geopolitical Tensions: The collapse of the Syrian government and subsequent military actions by Israel have increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. 3. US Inflation Data (CPI): November's CPI data showed a 2.7% YoY increase, aligning with expectations and reinforcing the case for rate cuts. The core inflation rate remained stable at 3.3%. These figures have kept gold's bullish momentum intact. --- Upcoming Data to Watch The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the US, scheduled for release tomorrow, will provide further clues about inflation trends. - Forecasts: - Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.3%). - PPI m/m: 0.2% (previous: 0.2%). - Unemployment Claims: 221K (previous: 224K). Potential Scenarios for PPI: 1. Stronger-than-expected PPI (above 0.2%): Higher PPI could indicate persistent inflationary pressures, potentially boosting the US Dollar and pressuring gold prices lower. In this case, gold may test short-term supports at $2,700 or $2,693. 2. Weaker-than-expected PPI (below 0.2%): A weaker PPI could further strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, weakening the US Dollar and providing additional upside for gold. A breakout above $2,735 would open the path toward $2,743 and $2,758. --- Conclusion Gold remains strong in the long term, with $2,735 as a critical resistance level. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally to $2,743 and $2,758. However, in the short term, the price is expected to correct to $2,700 or $2,693 before resuming its uptrend. The upcoming PPI report is pivotal and will shape market sentiment ahead of the Fed's rate decision next week. Recommendation Monitor the PPI report and Fed commentary closely. A pullback to $2,700 may offer a buying opportunity, with targets set at $2,743 and $2,758 if bullish momentum persists.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by uPaSKaL
16
USD/JPY awaiting the FED!The USD/JPY exchange rate as of December 12, 2024, reflects an increase of approximately 0.4%, reaching 152.50, driven by November's U.S. inflation data and expectations surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy. The published data shows a 0.3% monthly rise in headline CPI, slightly above the 0.2% consensus, while core CPI remained stable at 0.3%. On an annual basis, headline inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.6%, and core CPI was steady at 3.3%, in line with projections. These results reinforce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an estimated 84% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. Markets interpret the data as a sign that inflation is under control, potentially allowing the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy to support economic growth. The 10-year Treasury yield, stable at 4.226%, indicates relative calm in bond markets, which may help limit volatility in the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY continues to benefit from the yield differential between U.S. and Japanese assets, supporting dollar strength. However, upcoming economic data, such as the PPI and initial jobless claims, will be crucial in confirming or adjusting market expectations. The 152.50 level represents a critical zone: a break above 152.80 could signal further bullish momentum toward 2024 highs, while a pullback might bring the pair to key support at 151.50. The current scenario suggests a consolidative phase, but incoming data and the Fed's decision will be pivotal in shaping future direction.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/CHF edges up ahead of SNB rate decisionThe Swiss franc is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8845, up 0.19% on the day. 'Tis the season of central bank decisions, with four major central banks making rate announcements this week. The Swiss central bank meets on Thursday and a rate cut has been fully priced, but what will the SNB do? The market has currently priced a 50-basis point cut at 60% and a modest 25-bp cut at 40%. Just one week ago, the odds were 70-30 in favor of a 50-bp cut. Inflation declined by 0.1% in November and Switzerland hasn't posted a gain in inflation since May. The signs of deflation support the case for a jumbo 50-bp cut. Still, central banks prefer modest rate moves in 25-bp increments and with the cash rate at just 1%, policymakers may opt for a 25-bp cut. US inflation for November was a non-event for the US dollar, which has shown little movement today against the major currencies. Headline CPI ticked higher to 2.7% y/y up from 2.6% in October, while the core rate rose 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Monthly, headline CPI rose from 0.2% to 0.3% and the core CPI rose was unchanged at 0.3%. The data matched expectations which explains the muted response of the US dollar. In the aftermath of today's inflation data, the market expectations for a rate cut at the Dec .18 meeting have jumped. The rate odds for a quarter-point have climbed to 97%, compared to 88% immediately prior to the release. The Fed has lowered rates twice this year and is poised for a third cut next week, even though the inflation downswing has stalled and inflation remains higher than the Fed's 2% target. USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.8853 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.8876 0.8810 and 0.8787 are the next support levels
by OANDA
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the inflation index!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If we maintain the drawn blue upward trend line, we can witness the continued rise of gold and the limited visibility of the channel ceiling. Within the zone of supply, we can sell with appropriate risk reward. Returning below this trend line paves the way for gold to fall and you can buy within the zone of demand. According to a report by Bank of America, gold remains on track to reach $3,000 per ounce next year. However, investors need to be patient, as the current price consolidation phase may continue through the first half of the year. Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research at Bank of America, stated during the bank’s 2025 Outlook webinar: “Currently, gold is stuck in an environment where there’s nothing tangible to draw investors back into the market.” The second-largest U.S. bank has highlighted that gold faces significant challenges in the upcoming year, including weak demand from China and pressures on Western investors, who are dealing with the prospect of higher bond yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar. The report noted, “The Trump administration is likely to pursue a mixed economic policy that, through stronger growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and a stronger dollar, could limit investors’ willingness to increase gold purchases in the short term.” Bank of America strategists predict that Trump’s economic policies, such as potential trade tariffs and similar measures, may force the Federal Reserve to slow down its pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. Analysts expect only two rate cuts next year, one in March and the other in June. Despite these challenges, precious metals experts believe that gold and silver will remain well-supported in the coming year as economic uncertainties and geopolitical turmoil continue to boost demand for safe-haven assets. According to a recent Reuters poll of economists, 56 out of 97 respondents forecast that the Federal Reserve will lower its interest rate to 3.50–3.75% or lower by the end of 2025. Furthermore, 93 out of 103 economists surveyed predict that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 18 meeting, bringing the rate to a range of 4.50–4.25%. Investors are now focusing on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to have increased by 0.3% in November. This data could shape expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s 2025 policy stance. Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital, commented: “An expected CPI number essentially gives the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates next week, and this could be the catalyst that gold has been waiting for.” Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs views the recent decline in gold prices as merely a fluctuation and expects the metal to resume its upward trajectory soon. Goldman Sachs cited the following reasons for its outlook: • Accommodative monetary policies • Central bank purchases of gold • A return of investors to the gold market The bank also pointed out that during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent freezing of Russian assets by Western nations, gold emerged as an attractive alternative to the U.S. dollar. Many central banks around the world turned to gold to diversify their reserves. Goldman Sachs stated: “We do not expect central bank demand for gold to decline. With the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates, investors will also reenter the market. We project that gold prices will reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Dollar, waiting for the release of the CPI index?!The GBPUSD currency pair is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The continuation of the trend of this currency pair will depend on the maintenance or failure of this channel. If the upward trend continues due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward. In case of channel failure and downward correction, you can buy this currency pair within the specified demand zone. According to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer inflation expectations in the United States showed some changes in November compared to October. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3%, up from 2.9% last month. Additionally, three-year inflation expectations reached 2.6%, slightly higher than the 2.5% recorded in October. Five-year expectations also edged up from 2.8% to 2.9%. The Federal Reserve’s survey indicates that participants anticipate a decline in costs for gasoline, rent, and food over the coming year. Expectations about future government borrowing have also dropped significantly. The report further highlights that many respondents are optimistic about their financial situation improving next year. This positive outlook has reached its highest level since February 2020. Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, has warned that Donald Trump’s tariff plans could disrupt prior efforts to curb inflation and lead to higher consumer prices. Speaking at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, she stressed that broad tariffs could increase costs for American consumers and businesses dependent on imports. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has performed impressively this year, supported by strong economic conditions. However, Morgan Stanley analysts, including David Adams, caution that holding long positions on the dollar may now be a mistake as the currency faces downside risks. Bloomberg reports that while efforts to combat inflation have been largely successful, lingering price pressures could undermine confidence in further interest rate cuts. Reuters has reported that the Bank of England intends to maintain its cautious stance and keep interest rates steady. Simultaneously, the European Commission has advised EU member states against granting the UK greater access to the bloc’s electricity market. This recommendation comes despite warnings from the energy sector about higher costs for consumers and slower progress toward green energy transitions. In a policy document outlining the EU’s stance on future negotiations with the UK, the European Commission emphasized that the principle of “limited choice” should also apply to electricity trade. The document noted that the UK’s decision not to rejoin the single market has restricted deeper cooperation in the energy sector, and partial participation in this market would neither benefit the EU nor align with the European Council’s guidelines. In October, British and European energy companies called for a revision of post-Brexit energy trade arrangements to establish a “green energy hub” in the North Sea. They warned that the current framework is not only inefficient but also jeopardizes shared commitments to generate 310 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050. On Monday, the U.S. and UK announced a fresh wave of sanctions targeting what they described as the illicit gold trade. The UK claimed that this trade finances Vladimir Putin’s war efforts in Ukraine and fuels corruption. The British government froze the assets of four individuals accused of gold smuggling, as well as another individual who had purchased over $300 million worth of Russian gold, generating revenue for the Russian government. In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said: “Illicit gold trade is an attack on the legitimate trade of a valuable commodity, fueling corruption, undermining the rule of law, and enabling human rights abuses, including child labor.”
Long
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD Fundamental AnalysisThe Pound Sterling trades sideways near 1.2750 against the USD as investors await the US inflation data for November. The impact of US inflation should be limited on Fed interest rate prospects unless there is a dramatic deviation from expectations. Investors expect the BoE to leave interest rates steady at 4.75% on December 19. Inflation Rate MoM forecast: 0.3% previous:0.2% Core Inflation Rate MoM forecast: 0.3% previous: 0.3% The Pound Sterling strives to reclaim the key resistance of 1.2800 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.2720. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Depending on how the inflation information is received, it could see the FX:GBPUSD claim 1.2800 or head down to 1.2500
by luak
1
Gold Analysis - December 2024Gold maintains its bullish momentum, trading above $2,660 per ounce due to optimism surrounding new economic stimulus from China and a weakening US Dollar, which enhance the appeal of the precious metal. During American trading hours, spot gold reached an intraday high of $2,667.31, reflecting sustained demand after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) resumed gold purchases following a six-month hiatus. This aligns with a macroeconomic context that favors safe-haven assets. News of Chinese stimulus has improved sentiment for gold, with China, being a significant consumer and investor, showing clear support for prices through central bank purchases. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is weakening ahead of key central bank announcements and economic data releases, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Attention is focused on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Wednesday, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A higher-than-expected CPI could pressure gold, while weaker data may further support its bullish trend. Decisions from various central banks, including the Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE, may shape market sentiment, with dovish signals potentially further boosting gold. Wall Street opened lower, with major indices in the red, while government bond yields ticked slightly higher, creating a mixed environment that supports safe-haven flows into gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD moving towards 1.02!As of December 8, 2024, the EUR/USD exchange rate has shown significant volatility, influenced by mixed economic data and central bank monetary policies. Recently, the exchange rate hit multi-year lows, bottoming out at 1.0332 on November 22, followed by a rebound that brought the pair to fluctuate around 1.0570. The Dollar Index (DXY) declined after initial jobless claims rose to 224,000 in the week ending November 30, compared to 215,000 in the previous week. However, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December showed an improvement, indicating increased consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. The Eurozone economy has shown signs of slowing, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI declining and a contraction in France's services sector activity. This data highlights economic weakness that could influence future decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). The market currently sees a 70% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed in its December meeting. Historically, December has been a positive month for EUR/USD, with an average return of 1.23% over the past 50 years. However, current economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties could limit this seasonal trend.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAGUSD - Silver will return to its upward trend?!Silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the trend line breaks and continues to decline, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with the appropriate risk reward. Stabilization of silver above the resistance area will provide us with the path for silver to rise to the supply range. The CIBC bank forecasts that silver prices will average around $35 per ounce in 2025, maintaining this level through 2026. By 2027, prices may slightly decline, averaging $34.50 per ounce. Analysts at the bank expressed a bullish outlook on gold and silver markets, citing preparations by global markets to deal with the unpredictable policies of Trump’s administration. Last month, the president-elect threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada if they fail to tighten border controls. Additionally, he warned over the weekend that a 100% tariff might be applied to the BRICS bloc if they develop a settlement currency to bypass the U.S. dollar. Analysts stated, “We anticipate that higher tariffs, the potential for trade wars, lower interest rates, and deregulation will all support rising gold and silver prices.” They added, “We believe that Trump’s tariff policies could provoke retaliatory measures against U.S. exports, thereby fueling inflationary pressures.” Performance of Gold and Silver in 2024: • Gold has surged by 29% this year. Following a 3.4% increase in October and a 5.2% gain in September, gold prices declined by 2.5% in November. • Silver also rose by 29% in 2024. However, after advancing 4.3% in October and 7.9% in September, silver prices fell by 5.2% in November. Throughout 2024, gold has repeatedly hit record highs, breaking price ceilings 39 times. However, silver has yet to return to its previous bull market peak of $50 per ounce. While this may be disappointing for silver enthusiasts, historical trends suggest that silver often lags behind gold during bullish cycles, only to later outpace gold explosively. This lag presents an excellent opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on potential gains in this market. Meanwhile, the market’s primary focus remains on the release of today’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report and potential signals from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the central bank’s communication blackout, starting at midnight on Friday. The most significant signal so far has come from Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Board member. Waller expressed willingness to support a rate cut in December, but noted that this decision depends on forthcoming economic data. He specifically highlighted the NFP report as one of five key indicators under consideration but cautioned that these figures might be distorted by factors such as October’s strikes, post-storm economic activity, and the upcoming elections. Currently, markets estimate a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its December 18 meeting. This likelihood has dipped slightly from 75% earlier this week but has remained unchanged since Monday. In addition to the NFP report, scheduled speeches from several Federal Reserve officials—including Bowman, Goolsbee, Harker, and Daly—are planned for Friday.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USDCAD - CAD Vs tariffs!The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. You can sell up to the bottom of the ascending channel within the specified supply zone with the appropriate risk reward. The Canadian dollar has underperformed against other currencies this year, largely due to the Bank of Canada’s consistent interest rate cuts. It is expected that the central bank will lower interest rates for the fifth time in December, though the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut has diminished following a higher-than-expected inflation report. The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) still foresee the possibility of a larger rate cut. Meanwhile, per capita GDP data reveals that economic growth has declined for the sixth consecutive period. Monthly GDP figures indicate that growth in September and October was only 0.1%. According to CIBC, domestic demand remained relatively stable during this time, comparable to the previous quarter. However, monthly data shows that the third quarter ended with gradual deceleration rather than the sharp rebound initially expected, leading to significantly lower fourth-quarter forecasts compared to the projections in October’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). RBC maintains its prediction of a 50-basis-point rate cut but has stated that Friday’s employment report will be closely monitored ahead of the central bank’s December 11 meeting. “GDP numbers reinforce the notion that current interest rates are higher than necessary to maintain inflation at the 2% target. The Bank of Canada will also closely monitor next week’s labor market data, but a further 50-basis-point cut in December is likely,” an analyst remarked. Currently, the Bank of Canada projects 2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, but this figure is likely to be revised downward. With government forecasts suggesting population declines, the central bank may adopt a more cautious approach for 2025. Deputy Governor Mendes of the Bank of Canada stated that inflation is gradually easing and will eventually stabilize at 2%. Lower inflation will boost consumer and business confidence, encouraging spending and investment. If the economy evolves as anticipated, further rate cuts could be possible. However, he emphasized that decisions will be made step-by-step, considering both above-target and below-target inflation. Mendes warned that additional measures to curb inflation might hurt economic growth, with potentially more negative long-term consequences than short-term benefits. According to Axios, a senior Canadian Liberal minister involved in Sunday’s negotiations stated that Canadian officials plan to “visibly and robustly” enhance border security following a meeting between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President-elect Trump. Trump previously threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and other countries due to his concerns over migrants and drugs entering the U.S. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s Public Safety Minister, told CBC Radio and Television that Canadian officials met with Trump and Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick to discuss tariffs and their implications for the economy. LeBlanc stressed that existing border security cooperation remains strong but noted concerns over firearm smuggling from the U.S. LeBlanc also shared that during an informal dinner with Trudeau, Trump jokingly suggested that Canada become the 51st U.S. state. He clarified that the comment was made in jest and was not meant seriously.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Copper - Markets await employment data!In the 4H timeframe, copper is located between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its descending channel. Copper moved down from the supply zone of the previous analysis. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to sell copper in the next supply zone. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward The governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has stated that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy in 2025. The bank also aims to promote sustainable development in the real estate and capital markets through effective utilization of structural monetary policy tools. Meanwhile, the United States has imposed new export restrictions designed to curtail China’s ability to advance its high-tech semiconductor industry and slow the development of military applications for artificial intelligence (AI). In response, the China Internet Association has expressed that these restrictions will significantly harm the healthy and sustainable growth of China’s internet industry. The association has also urged domestic companies to exercise caution when purchasing American chips and to seek expanded cooperation with chip manufacturers from other countries. In a retaliatory move, China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced a ban on exporting key rare earth metals to the U.S. and is considering stricter reviews for graphite exports. These raw materials are critical for industries such as semiconductors, military systems, electric vehicle batteries, and solar technologies. The ongoing trade tensions between the two nations could have far-reaching consequences for both sides. In the U.S., it is anticipated that November’s employment figures will reflect recovery after being weighed down by recent storms and a major strike.This aligns with a labor market that remains healthy but is gradually normalizing. According to a Bloomberg survey, nonfarm payrolls (NFP) likely increased by 200,000 in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. As the Boeing strike ends and recovery efforts from recent storms begin, November’s job report is expected to be less affected by unusual factors. However, a consistent decline in job openings, moderate employment growth, and layoff plans from companies like Boeing and General Motors indicate a softer labor market overall. These developments, along with Friday’s employment data, could significantly influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions and market expectations for interest rate cuts. The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. construction industry is facing new challenges. The Trump administration’s immigration and trade policies have left homebuilders in a vulnerable position. New tariffs and restrictions on immigrant labor are two key pressures confronting the industry. For instance, McKinney, Texas, which two decades ago was accessible only via a two-lane highway, has now grown to a city of over 200,000 residents, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the country. This city’s development has relied heavily on immigrant labor and industries dependent on imported steel and commodities. However, recent policies are imposing new challenges, leaving homebuilders grappling with even greater difficulties.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
9
A break below 2635 could prompt a steeper decline for XAUUSDTechnical Perspective: Gold hovers between the 2635 - 2650 range and holds above the short-term ascending trend line. If the price closes below the 2635 support with a bearish breakout of the ascending channel, the price could extend its decline to the following support at 2610.00. Conversely, a break above 2650 could prompt a further rise toward the following resistance at 2665. Fundamental Perspective: Gold consolidated as investors weighed the political and economic outlook while awaiting key economic data. A stronger-than-expected US job openings report pointed to resilience in the labor market, with markets now focused on Friday's non-farm payrolls and upcoming speeches from Fed officials to gauge potential policy moves. The likelihood of a 25bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve, now at 73%, supports gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the asset. Additionally, geopolitical risks continue to bolster gold's safe-haven appeal. Elsewhere, Asian markets were rattled after South Korean President Yoon's unexpected decision to impose martial law, only to swiftly reverse course hours later, causing stocks to tumble initially. The Kospi Index dropped as much as 2%, with South Korean assets seeing widespread losses overnight, while equities in Sydney slipped and Tokyo markets opened flat. Despite the turmoil, South Korea's central bank signaled readiness to intervene if necessary, soothing market concerns. Author: Li Xing Gan, CMT, CFTe, Financial Market Strategist Consultant to Exness
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by lixing_gan
GBPUSD towards 1.28!The GBP/USD pair shows signs of recovery toward the 1.2700 level during European trading, supported by a moderate weakening of the US Dollar due to improved market sentiment and profit-taking ahead of the release of the US JOLTS data. Fundamentally, the pair is consolidating losses after a decline of more than 0.5% recorded on Monday, limiting the damage thanks to the drop in the EUR/GBP pair, indicating capital flows from the Eurozone to the United Kingdom. Investors are closely monitoring the US JOLTS Job Openings data: a figure equal to or above 8 million could strengthen the Dollar, generating additional bearish pressure on GBP/USD. Moreover, attention is focused on the speeches by Federal Reserve members, with recent statements highlighting uncertainties about a potential rate cut in December. The current probability of a 25 basis points rate cut stands at 72%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, but more cautious signals from officials could keep the Dollar in a strong position. Therefore, the direction of the pair remains tied to the evolution of macroeconomic data and monetary policy, with a consolidation dynamic reflecting the balance between technical and fundamental factors.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1