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Aussie dollar strengthens as RBA moves opposite with Fed The RBA is less likely to cut rates as Australia's labor market remains tight. Australia's Aug Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, while labor participation surged to a record high of 67.1%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized that the increasing number of jobs and opportunities for Australians is a very encouraging development. The RBA also clarified that inflation could continue to decrease if the Unemployment Rate increases further. As the RBA continues to uphold its hawkish stance while the Fed declares a 0.50% rate cut, the Aussie dollar may persist in its upward trajectory. AUDUSD extended its uptrend, breaching the psychological resistance at 0.6800. The price rose above both EMAs, while EMA21 widened the gap with EMA78, sending a bullish signal. If AUDUSD sustains its uptrend while holding above EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 0.6870 high. Conversely, if AUDUSD fails to hold above EMA21 and breaks the support at 0.6730, the price may fall further to the 0.6640 level.
by inkicho_exness
Aussie dollar strengthens as RBA moves opposite with Fed The RBA is less likely to cut rates as Australia's labor market remains tight. Australia's Aug Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, while labor participation surged to a record high of 67.1%. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized that the increasing number of jobs and opportunities for Australians is a very encouraging development. The RBA also clarified that inflation could continue to decrease if the Unemployment Rate increases further. As the RBA continues to uphold its hawkish stance while the Fed declares a 0.50% rate cut, the Aussie dollar may persist in its upward trajectory. AUDUSD extended its uptrend, breaching the psychological resistance at 0.6800. The price rose above both EMAs, while EMA21 widened the gap with EMA78, sending a bullish signal. If AUDUSD sustains its uptrend while holding above EMA21, the price could gain upward momentum toward the 0.6870 high. Conversely, if AUDUSD fails to hold above EMA21 and breaks the support at 0.6730, the price may fall further to the 0.6640 level.
by inkicho_exness
Gold's Surge on Fed Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions!Fundamental Trend and Macroeconomic Factors: Gold is continuing its bullish trend, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Lower rates make gold, a non-yielding asset, more attractive compared to interest-bearing financial instruments. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon are also boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold, further driving up the precious metal’s price. Technical Data and Trend Indicators: Gold has risen for the third consecutive day, with the price reaching a new record high of $2,634.74 per ounce. Daily technical indicators show signs of stabilization, although they remain in overbought territory, indicating that the bullish momentum might start to slow down. 4-Hour Chart Analysis: Technical indicators have begun to pull back from their recent highs with neutral-to-bearish slopes, signaling a potential retracement. However, gold continues to trade above rising moving averages, with dynamic support around $2,600. Future Outlook: Upcoming economic data, such as the August PCE Index, could influence the Fed’s future direction, determining whether interest rate cuts will become more aggressive. This factor will be crucial in assessing whether gold can continue its upward trajectory, bolstered by an expansive monetary policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
23/09/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,141.61 Last weeks low: $57,492.86 Midpoint: $60,817.24 Pattern continuation for Bitcoin from the week that came before last, steady and constant move up +11.55% from week low to high. The FOMC was the big talking point of the week, would the FED cut 25bps or 50bps, the answer was 50bps with a view to stay ahead of the curve. Making the rate of borrowing cheaper incentivises risk-on investment and so we have seen the start of that with the recent move up from the midpoint/ Having said that, typically when the week starts by swing failing the previous weeks high that often leads to a sell off week historically. This would go against the larger macro narrative that the market is turning back bullish after 6 months of chop. If anything this is the perfect test for Bitcoins resolve, if it overcomes a swing fail and continues a move up then the sentiment and macro outlook will be very positive going into Q4. $65,000 is still major resistance and should be the bullish target to flip this week. The altcoin market is starting to wake up, should BTC accumulate around the $65,000 area I'd like to see alts/TOTAL3 playing catch-up. If BTC flips the $65,000 with strength we are off to the races.
by ProR35
Copper Supported by the Fed’s Jumbo CutAfter May’s record peak, copper prices slumped as demand optimism went away due to US and China economic fears, EV adoption slowdown and AI euphoria giving way to skepticism. However, copper staged a rebound, as China has been stepping up its effort to prop the economy, while AI optimism returned recently lifting tech and chip-making sectors. Furthermore US recession fears were quelled after the Fed slashed rates by a jumbo 0.5% last week and pointed to aggressive easing ahead, in what could be a boon for the property sectors where copper is used heavily. These forces have helped the non-ferrous metal regain control above the EMA200, providing the launch pad for reclaiming the 4.500 handle. This would bring the summer high in the spotlight (4.700), although this level has a higher degree of difficulty. On the other hand, the Fed’s frontloading creates risk of renewed inflation pressures that could lead to a shallower easing path, while China economic problems persist and the real estate sector remains in distress. Copper starts the current week on the back foot, unable to capitalize on its recent bounce. This sustains risk of sub-EMA200 moves that would pause the momentum, but the downside contains many buffers and prolonged weakness does not look easy, technically nor fundamentally. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:COPPERLong
by FXCM
1
EURUSD Analysis after the FED, BOE and BOJ!The analysis of EUR/USD suggests a relatively strong position for the pair, currently stable around 1.1160, with a bullish outlook supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Technical Factors: Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart is near 70, indicating the pair is in overbought territory, suggesting that a technical pullback or correction could be imminent in the short term. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact for now. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The first resistance level is at 1.1200, followed by 1.1275, which represents the July 18, 2023 high. Support: The first support level is at 1.1135, followed by 1.1100. Fundamental Factors: US Dollar: The potential weakness of the US Dollar is a key factor. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates in 2024 could contribute to a decline in the Dollar, increasing bullish pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Although the data on initial jobless claims (219,000 vs. 231,000) temporarily supported the Dollar, the prevailing risk sentiment in the markets reintroduced bearish pressure on the Dollar later in the week. European Central Bank (ECB): Comments from ECB members indicate that no significant monetary policy changes are expected until December. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech could have market impacts. If she opens the door to a rate cut as early as October, it could weaken the Euro. However, at this time, such a possibility seems unlikely.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY surges as Bank of Japan stays patThe US dollar has posted sharp gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.85, up 0.88% at the time of writing. The yen hit a 14-month high on Monday but the dollar has rebounded and is up 2.1% this week. It’s an unusually quiet Friday with no US events on the calendar. The Bank of Japan held its rate decision just after the Federal Reserve, but there was little drama at the BoJ meeting. The markets had expected that central bank to maintain rates at “around 0.25%” and the BoJ didn’t provide any clues about future hikes. The rate statement didn’t reveal much, stating that the economy had “recovered moderately” but some weakness remained. The statement noted concern over “developments in financial and foreign exchange market and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices”. Governor Ueda said last month that the BoJ would raise rate if the economy and inflation were in line with the Bank’s projections. If key data, particularly inflation, is stronger than expected in the coming weeks, we could see a rate hike at the October meeting. With inflation in the US largely under control, the Federal Reserve is keeping a worried eye on the labor market, as job growth as deteriorated quickly. That slide has unnerved financial markets and may have been a key factor in the Fed’s jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points this week. Thursday’s unemployment claims for the period ending Sept. 14 were better than expected, at 219 thousand. This was well below the revised 231 thousand reading a week earlier and beat the market estimate of 230 thousand. USD/JPY pushed above resistance at 142.41 earlier. The next resistance line is 144.55 There is support at 142.41 and 141.00
by OANDA
Can DXY Stabilize at 99.50-100 Area Despite FED 50bp Cut? Dollar Index – DXY has turned bearish after the corrective rally stopped at 105.70-106, an important resistance area at the end of June. Since then, the price even accelerated lower through summer so it appears that a bearish impulse is in play, but with recent touch of a new swing low, DXY is possibly in fifth wave, so be aware of some support in weeks ahead. But closer look shows that there is still some room left for 99.50-100 area, but if this will occur and structure a wedge shape, then we should be aware of reversals, and new correction. So as said, the price could still see a bit more weakness into the 5th wave to fully complete this ending diagonal, but then dollar can turn for a new correction, considering that recent dollar weakness has been mainly driven by these rate cut expectations, so now that this 50bp cut has been done, the dollar may stabilize due to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. However, any rally will be temporary, as I think that dollar has room for much more weakness, bu ideally after another a-b-c recovery. 101.80 -102 is strong resistance. GH
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
FED Cutting Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of this week the FED has announced that they will be slashing the FED funds rates by 50bps (0.50%). Contrary to popular belief, this is not necessarily bullish. Actually, the last three times that they did it was an indicator that a bear market was coming. As seen on the lower chart, once the FED cuts the rates, it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future. Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
SP:SPXShort
by FieryTrading
12
S&P 500 forecast: Outsized rate cut music to bulls’ ears. S&P 500 forecast: The US stock market has shown impressive resilience following the recent volatility. Investors, thrilled by the Federal Reserve’s outsized rate cut, have pushed index futures higher. However, there are mixed opinions about what lies ahead. For now, it looks the S&P 500 will finish the week at a fresh record high. Fed’s Rate Cut and Its Impact on Markets The Federal Reserve’s decision to deliver a 50-basis point rate cut was largely welcomed by investors. The move was seen as a bold but necessary step to ease economic concerns without sending panic signals reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that the cuts are not part of a long-term strategy but rather a proactive measure aimed at stabilising growth, now that inflation appears to be on the path of returning to its target. Markets initially sold off but quickly rebounded, with S&P 500 futures suggesting a potential new record high is on the horizon at the cash open today. The Dot Plot projection also boosted investor confidence, showing a possible 50 basis points of cuts this year and 100 next year, with the terminal rate expected to hit 3.0% by 2026. But what now? Can the S&P 500 Rally Continue? With the S&P 500 up nearly 19% year-to-date, investors are wondering if the rally can be sustained. On the surface, it appears that market sentiment is bullish, bolstered by the Fed’s actions and a series of robust earnings reports. Yet, looming risks, such as global economic slowdown in the Eurozone and China, may challenge this optimism. Moreover, seasonal trends indicate that September is typically a tough month for equities, adding a potential headwind to the current rally – although so far this hasn’t held investors back. With the US presidential election approaching, market volatility could spike, leaving investors hesitant to dive into new rallies without a clear trend. S&P 500 forecast: Technical Analysis and Key Levels to Watch Despite some volatility after the Fed’s rate cut, the S&P 500’s bullish trend remains intact. Traders should keep an eye on the support range between 5613 and 5670, with the upper end of this range marking the high from July. As long as the index holds above this support area, the short-term path of least resistance will remain upwards, potentially keeping the market on course to head towards 5800 or even the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of 5827, derived from the drop in July. However, a dip below 5613 would signal a shift towards bearish sentiment, potentially pushing the index down to its next support and short-term trendline around the 5480-5500 area. Bearish Risks and Market Sentiment While the bulls are currently in control, bearish traders are watching for signs of a reversal. A drop below recent lows, as suggested above, could signal the end of the short-term bullish bias, reminiscent of the July sell-off when overbought conditions led to a sharp decline. Then, the signal came in the form of a bearish engulfing candle on 17 July. Bearish traders need to wait for a similar confirmation before making any significant moves, given the overall bullish structure of this market. Risk Management in a Volatile Market Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, managing risk is critical in today's market. With heightened uncertainty surrounding the economy and upcoming elections, volatility is expected to remain high. Traders should stay nimble and be prepared for sudden shifts in the market’s direction. In conclusion, while the S&P 500 forecast remains cautiously optimistic, several factors could derail the current rally. Staying informed and agile will be essential for navigating the coming weeks. We will, of course, highlight any major shifts in the trends, if observed. Stay tuned. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
WHSELFINVEST:USSP500CFDLong
by WHSelfInvest
AUD/USD climbs on Aussie job data, Fed rate cutThe Australian dollar has posted sharp gains on Thursday. AUD/USD rose as much as 1% before paring most of those gains. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6792, up 0.41% on the day. Australia created 47.5 thousand jobs in August, close to the revised 48.9 thousand in July and crushing the market estimate of 25 thousand. The gains were all part-time positions as full-time jobs actually declined by 3.1 thousand. Still, investors gave a thumbs-up and the Australian dollar is up sharply today. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, in line with market expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains an outlier among the major central banks as it is yet to lower rates. The RBA has maintained rates at 4.35% since November but its “higher for longer” stance has not brought down inflation as much as expected. Inflation has dropped to 3.5% but that is still higher than the inflation target range of between 2 and 3 percent. The RBA meets next Wednesday, a day before the August inflation report and is expected to maintain rates. In one of the most anticipated rate meetings in recent memory, the Federal Reserve surprised the markets with an oversize cut of 50 basis points. The markets were unsure right up to decision time whether the Fed would go with a modest 25 bps cut or the large 50 bps cut. In the end, the Fed opted for the deeper cut in a near-unanimous decision (11 of 12 members voted in favor). The message from the Fed was that it is confident that inflation will remain sustainably near the 2% target and that the weak labor market was in need of strong relief. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell tried to assure the markets that the US economy was in good shape and that today’s move was not a signal that further 50 bps cuts were on the way. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6798. Above, there is resistance at 0.6862 0.6751 and 0.6687 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Fed Kicks Off Rate-Cutting Cycle. Why the Muted Market Reaction?Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed? Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally in stocks. Maybe gold XAU/USD flickered a bit, but it was mostly froth . And here we are — the first day of trading in an environment with lower interest rates. Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday the first trim to borrowing costs in four years. The move ushers in a new normal where US interest rates USINTR are projected to continue moving lower from their 23-year high of 5.5%. The easing cycle kicked off with a jumbo-sized 50 bps (basis points) slash. Surprisingly, the Fed went for the juicier, bolder and more aggressive option, leapfrogging the less interesting and exciting cut of 25 bps. First reactions across the board showed investors were hyped to get what they wanted — the broad-based S&P 500 hit an intraday record . Shortly after, however, stocks across the board pulled back and markets became anxious over the outlook as the realization kicked in. If the economy is doing fine, why go big on cuts from the get-go? What’s more, central bankers are keen to ax interest rates by another half point in 2024, ultimately wrapping up the year with the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25% to 4.5%. Christmas may come early — the Fed meets twice more this year, on November 7 and December 18. Better Safe Than Sorry? A super-sized half-point cut could actually be a pre-emptive measure to alleviate a strained economy. But if inflation is now largely in the rearview mirror , what could the problem be? The other mandate. The Fed has a dual mandate of keeping prices in check (inflation) and upholding a stable labor market (jobs). “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability,” Jay Powell said at the annual Jackson Hole gathering last month. And indeed, America’s jobs have seen a pronounced slowdown over the past few months. In July, markets added just 89,000 jobs (revised from an initial estimation of 114,000 ). In August, hiring had picked up modestly to 142,000 , but below expectations for 164,000. Pros and Cons of Bumper Cut Essentially, this big-boy cut of 50 bps is a double-edged sword. It cuts into borrowing costs, making money more affordable, potentially stimulating businesses to add more jobs and grow their gig. And it also prompts consumers to take on debt and get that house. But on the flip side, a cut of that magnitude risks stirring up price pressures again. To get to full employment, the Fed faces the challenge of knocked inflation waking up from its slumber. The size of the cut at this particular time doesn’t mean anything without the markets’ reaction to it. Apparently, investors were unimpressed and shrugged it off as no big deal. Looking ahead, however, the stakes are high because stocks are at all-time highs. The S&P 500 touched a record, Big Tech is leading the charge into artificial intelligence and investors can’t own enough of the highflyers Nvidia NVDA , Meta META , Apple AAPL , etc. The actual picture will become clear once markets figure out what the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle means and what to do about it.
SP:SPX
by TradingView
25
Sui's fundamental growth is seeing price surgeThe Sui chain is trying to enter BIG4 category Since October last year its been clear that the BIG3 are Eth, Sol and BSC. BSC has been losing market share since 2021 but is still dominant to second tier chains. Out of the second tier chains Sui has been growing. Now competitive with only Avax.. Sui is trying to make its way into becoming apart of the BIG4 if not replace BSC in the BIG3. Sui has seen a price surge off the back of this As Sui grows and expands into things like USDC integration.. the price will likely align. We are enter a stage of value investing within crypto which shows the development within the space. Sui is proving itself as one to keep an eye on in that regard.
Long
by SoftQuant
GBPUSD: After the FED, Awaiting the BOE and BOJ!The GBP/USD pair found support near the 1.3150 area on Thursday, temporarily halting the correction from the recent high of 1.3300, the highest level since March 2022. The 4-hour RSI remains close to 70, suggesting that the pair could enter overbought territory in the short term if it continues to rise. The bullish sentiment for GBP/USD has been supported by expectations of an aggressive rate cut from the Fed, which has weakened the US Dollar. This week, markets are awaiting the rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). In the short term, GBP/USD could consolidate above 1.3200 before potentially resuming its rise toward 1.3260 and 1.3300. On the downside, a break below 1.3150 would open the door for a drop towards 1.3100, especially if US economic data supports a rebound in the dollar.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Fed Rate: How to Trade Gold Amidst Market Uncertainty? The excitement is building as the Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate decision—whether it's a 25 or 50 basis point cut. Will gold reach new highs or begin a downward trend? Let’s wait and see. From a personal perspective, I'm not particularly concerned about the impact on trading. Whether the market moves up or down, it will eventually return to the current price levels. Especially after a surge, there’s no need to worry too much. For those trading today, do not set stop losses on short positions. If gold rises, simply add to your position or hedge by opening long trades. The 2600 level is a critical resistance point, and even if it breaks through due to the announcement, it won’t hold for long without a retracement. At that point, simply close your long positions and add more short positions. This trading strategy should be helpful for those looking to navigate the volatility. Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by MichaeliaDefoe