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$DXY dead men tell no tales*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* What's up guys! We are here to shed some light on this insane violability that the market has been experiencing these past couple of weeks. To start off, this upcoming "Santa Rally" that you may be hearing about is solely dependent on $DXY retracing to retest our trendline support. If $DXY were to however break through $97 resistance this week you should expect $SPY, cryptos, and even oil to fall. The Federal Reserve FOMC announcement on December 15, 2021 is likely the catalyst that will either send $DXY back down to retest our trendline, or launch it through $97 resistance. Please be aware that my team fully believes that the weight of the U.S dollar should dramatically increase within a few weeks regardless, and can only be delayed by an undecisive decision by the Feds temporarily. !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXY
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
5
Analysis of the Federal Meeting todayThe meeting of the members of the Federal Reserve was held today at 17:30 Iranian time. In this post, we will analyze his speech and the direction of the market. Remarks by Mr. Powell US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell said in a statement today: 1- Inflation is expected to decrease 2- Trying to control inflation and employment 3- Reduction of inflation in the first half of 2022 4- Waiting for the debt limit to be lifted Conclusions from Powell's speech: The United States is working to boost trade and businesses in the post-corona era by increasing liquidity. This increases inflation by increasing liquidity For this reason, increasing liquidity increases inflation and, due to the higher cost of using labor and consumer goods, creates a catastrophe (similar to Iranian policy) if left unchecked. Mrs. Yellen's words US Treasury Secretary Janet Louise Yellen said today that I would like to make a few points: Waiting for the debt limit to be lifted Failure to raise the debt ceiling would be a disaster Market reaction to these negotiations: The US dollar index (DXY) fell from 94.373 to 94.107, after which the gold and currency pairs on the right side of the US dollar entered an uptrend. In the currency pairs that have reached the bottom, you can now expect an upward trend. Please follow me and like this post. I'm on Twitter too. (Trying to be the best)
TVC:DXY
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
3
BEARISH GOLDEN BEARSThe Price has been ranging between 1730 and 1830 ... when it is at 1830 it resisted the 1850 It’s now at 1750s areas This means that we will see another Engulfing Bar but it’s certainly not a Bullish one In average the Price has been ranging for sometime without a clearer direction In the opening we may see the new price range from 1745 and 1775 being the new resistance!! The price of Gold is been caught up with: Good US economic data then the story continues like this : the dollar rockets, gold crashes. Bad US data; dollar tumbles, gold pauses or struggles to rally. Non-consequential US data; dollar pauses, gold falls a few notches. It’s been same story for the last 12 months No matter the data, gold seems doomed. It’s quite normal these days to see the yellow metal cave $30-$40 an ounce at a time and recover just about half of that over several days or even weeks. Seldom is the rebound commensurate with the fall and almost never does it overshoot the other way. It can, however, lose in a few hours twice of what it may have taken weeks to build. Proof was on Thursday when gold slumped $50 at one point to a five-week bottom of $1,745.50. The meltdown came as rival dollar catapulted on data showing upbeat U.S. retail sales for August that put the economy in ebullient light after weeks of challenging data from Covid’s Delta variant. Gold is also in an inflection point ahead of the Sept 21-22 Fed meeting that could revisit the subject of taper for the central bank’s stimulus program that has juiced stock prices over the past 18 months.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kingfluenx
1
USDCAD: USD strength has been signaled By the FEDFundamental Commentary: Wednesday's meeting by the FED has proved true that the FED is making a new monetary policy shift to normalize sooner than later, to reducing the size of the balance sheet ; and, this action that will send yields higher . This has brought strength into the USD. Thus, USD with strength being signaled, I a positive the USD in the medium-term for another quarter or two. Technical Commentary: Big rally in the dollar. pullback to support horizontal and fib support confluence
Long
by Rocketman
Natural Gas - Go LongIf we compare past economic trends from our past in terms of our natural gas price, there are obviously many factors that contribute to the price of Natural Gas as well as the timings of the swings. Most often, natural gas will see price increases more often in the winter if we see unexpected changes in winter weather making it a seasonal bet. In this chart I have compared the federal funds rate, the SPX 500, and the price of natural gas. These factors, from historical perspective, attribute to substantial correlation especially when we are near a market top. The more instability has shown to greatly change the price of natural gas and we can see shortly after markets reach substantial highs, natural gas has dropped to substantially low prices, then, shortly after, they correct in a substantial move. Politics play a huge factors in the price as well with political candidates speaking about banning fracking, most likely, this will be a positive for the natural gas price. Given a ban to fracking, basic economics states that when supply decreases, while demand remains constant, we will see price increases to the area of supply deficiency. Global warming can be looked at as a negative for natural gas prices as well, but the world is not heating fast enough to reduce demand for natural gas. In fact, we are seeing a rise in natural gas power plants as an alternative energy source given its low price compared to other fuel sources. Any increased demand will need to be met by an increased supply, but if natural gas prices do no rise we may see energy companies enter bankruptcy. It is my expectation that natural gas will slowly become an increasingly monopolized industry, this will be due to the factors I have listed above, but mostly because smaller companies will lose profitability potential and be forced to sell their assets to larger companies that are more sustainable. a monopolized industry will raise natural gas prices overall, but we will maintain smaller price swings heading into the future. The reason for this is because we will see a huge possibility that the United States will nationalize the natural gas industry similar to the way we treat utility companies who provide us energy. In the short term, going long natural gas should reap great reward as our economic expansion wanes especially as we are entering another winter. Please post a comment below if you would like to discuss this idea further. I do understand there are many other driving factors to the price of natural gas. Cheers, AC
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by RayleWoodInvestments
3
XLF is going to take a nosedive as the US turns dovishRight, a bit of a congested chart... In white, we have $XLF, purple, the US unemployment rate, orange is the European bank index and in yellow, we have the effective Fed Funds rate (US interest rate). Recent rhetoric from the Fed has been pretty dovish, and we have had a pause in hiking rates, with there likely to be absolutely no hike this year. If an economy that is apparently 'doing well' cannot afford a rate hike, is there not something seriously wrong? Let's take the European banks... Since the crisis, they've experienced negative rates whilst the US has had positive real rates... See, banks like interest rates. It allows them to make money, and allows for productive lending since there is not adverse selection when it comes to borrowers. The Fed is about to follow the ECB's lead... I think Fed member Williams said they could go to negative rates if needed... Which is crazy, since all they end up doing is creating zombie firms. So let's get this idea set... The Fed are pausing with rate hikes... They're likely to stop the balance sheet run off... And unemployment is at a record low... Every time the Fed has stopped their rate hike cycle, unemployment has increased and XLF has fallen off... Is that a decent enough thesis to get short if we start seeing unemployment data tick up? Well, we already have... we've just had the highest Q1 layoffs in the US since the financial crisis... Buckle up!
AMEX:XLFShort
by FinkPro
Updated Fed Chairperson PatternPrevious Fed Chair and Stock Market (divided by CPI, to make it "real"). You can see how there is turmoil typically at the beginning of a new Central Bankers term. Bernanke, not initially as he sat on top of a giant credit bubble that was set to pop. Greenspan had the worst initial stock market performance, but Bernanke had the worst performance with a close tie to Arthur Burns (under Nixon-Ford-Carter in the inflationary late 1970's). There is so much to learn from history that is often mis-taught and oversimplified in history books. Yellen ended up the 2nd shortest term as a Federal Reserve Chairperson, 2nd to William Miller during Carter's tenure. Conclusion: Looks like there is a wide variety of possibilities.
DJ:DJIEducation
by timwest
6
(4h) Short-Term Sell & Long-Term BuyAfter analyzing the bigger timeframe perspective of the GBPUSD, it seems that the market cycle for this pair is heading for a bullish trend . The Fed Interest Rate decision will determine the continuation of this trend, although it's more than likely that the Fed will maintain the current Interest Rate value until December 13th. Utilizing the Fibonacci Retracement Levels, we can expect a downward correction in the following days, followed by a long-term continuation of the original bullish impulse. So, for Scalpers , it's recommended to put a Sell order after the Fed decision as the price will move towards 0.5 level, possibly reaching the 0.618. Nevertheless, I'd say it's a good idea to place a Buy order once it bounces back, from these same levels, for the longer pip ride.
Long
by CarlosBMN