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$USINTR -Feds Cuts RatesECONOMICS:USINTR (November/2024) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% at its November 2024 meeting, following a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September, in line with expectations. Policymakers reiterated their previous message that they will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering additional adjustments to borrowing costs. On the economic front, the Fed noted that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated. However, officials removed a reference they had “gained greater confidence” that inflation is moving toward the target.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/7/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024 - PR High: 20923.50 - PR Low: 20889.00 - NZ Spread: 77.0 Key scheduled economic events 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims 13:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision 14:00 | FOMC Statement 14:30 | FOMC Press Conference AMP Futures increased margin requirements overnight - Broke above 20800 daily pivot - Continuing to auction above previous session high Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 11/7) - Weekend Gap: -0.13 (filled) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 310.36 - Volume: 24K - Open Int: 262K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -1.3% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2024Long
by mv3trader5
NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Anticipating a Slightly Bullish Bias.Introduction Today, we focus on the NZDUSD pair, assessing if a slightly bullish bias is likely. Amid evolving fundamental factors and current market sentiment, the New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZDUSD) may see subtle upward momentum, depending on several key drivers. Let’s explore these influences in more detail to help traders make informed decisions. 1. Recent NZ Economic Indicators New Zealand's recent economic data shows a stable but cautious outlook, with moderate improvements in employment and inflation metrics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a wait-and-see approach, prioritizing inflation control without aggressively tightening interest rates. Recent improvements in inflation data may continue to support the NZD, as stable inflation signals robust economic activity without undue financial strain. These trends encourage moderate investment inflows into New Zealand, providing slight upward pressure on the NZD. 2. Federal Reserve and US Economic Data The US Federal Reserve’s recent signals suggest the potential for a pause in rate hikes. This dovish stance supports risk sentiment, favoring currencies like the NZD. If the Fed emphasizes an inflation-fighting stance with a cautious approach, risk sentiment could rise, supporting a slightly bullish bias for NZDUSD. Additionally, softer-than-expected US economic data may weigh on the USD, creating room for the NZD to gain traction. 3. Commodity Prices and Global Trade Dynamics New Zealand's economy is heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly dairy and agricultural exports. A recent uptick in global dairy prices is favorable for the NZD, as higher export revenues strengthen New Zealand’s trade balance and overall economic resilience. Improved trade relations between China and New Zealand may also bolster investor confidence in the NZD, as China is a major trade partner. Positive developments here could add to NZD strength against the USD. 4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite Global risk sentiment plays a critical role in shaping the NZDUSD pair’s direction. The NZD often benefits in risk-on environments due to its status as a high-beta currency. Currently, with geopolitical uncertainties relatively controlled and a more stable global economic backdrop, risk appetite may support NZDUSD gains. If investors remain optimistic about global growth, the NZD’s appeal increases, leaning the bias towards a slight bullish trend. Conclusion In summary, the NZDUSD pair could exhibit a slightly bullish bias today, driven by favorable domestic economic indicators, the US Fed’s dovish stance, rising commodity prices, and stable market sentiment. This anticipated trend is subject to fluctuations, and traders are advised to keep a close eye on US data releases and global risk dynamics. Keywords: #NZDUSDanalysis, #NewZealandDollar, #USDollar, #NZDbullishbias, #ForextradingNovember12024, #ReserveBankofNewZealand, #FederalReserve, #Commodityprices, #Risksentiment, #Forextechnicalanalysis, #FundamentalfactorsinForex.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
NZDUSD Analysis for 16/10/2024: Slight Bullish Bias ExpectedIntroduction As of 16th October 2024, the NZDUSD (New Zealand Dollar vs. US Dollar) pair shows a slight bullish bias in today’s trading session. A combination of fundamental factors, economic data releases, and market sentiment are all playing a pivotal role in driving this price action. In this article, we will break down the key drivers for the potential bullish trend in NZDUSD today, with a focus on the latest developments in the global economy, central bank policies, and market conditions. Key Drivers for NZDUSD Bullish Bias 1. New Zealand Economic Data Strength One of the primary factors contributing to the slight bullish bias in NZDUSD is the recent release of positive economic data from New Zealand. Key indicators such as GDP growth and retail sales have come in stronger than expected, supporting the NZD. The New Zealand economy continues to exhibit resilience despite global challenges, and this has attracted investors towards the Kiwi dollar. In the latest report, New Zealand’s consumer sentiment index showed improvement, reflecting increased consumer confidence. This suggests that domestic demand is picking up, which is supportive of the New Zealand Dollar’s strength. As a result, this economic optimism is likely to boost NZDUSD. 2. RBNZ Hawkish Stance The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, signaling a possible interest rate hike in the near future to combat inflation. Although inflation remains elevated globally, New Zealand’s inflation figures are closely monitored by the RBNZ, and the central bank is prepared to act if needed. A potential rate hike would increase the attractiveness of the NZD in the forex market. The US Federal Reserve, by contrast, is leaning towards a more neutral stance, with expectations that interest rates may have peaked for the time being. This divergence in monetary policy between the RBNZ and the Federal Reserve is providing support to NZDUSD, as a more hawkish RBNZ outlook favors the New Zealand Dollar. 3. US Dollar Weakness On the other side of the equation, the US Dollar has experienced some softness amid mixed economic data and shifting market sentiment. The recent US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report showed inflation cooling, reducing the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. As inflation shows signs of easing, investors are beginning to price in the possibility of a Fed pause, which has led to USD weakness. Additionally, political uncertainty in the US, particularly related to fiscal policy and government shutdown risks, is weighing on the USD. The combination of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve and domestic uncertainty is making the US Dollar less attractive, boosting the NZDUSD pair. 4. Global Risk Sentiment Risk sentiment in global financial markets is another critical driver of NZDUSD. As a commodity-linked currency, the New Zealand Dollar often performs well when risk appetite improves. Today, we see a more optimistic tone in equity markets as investors respond positively to the easing inflation pressures in the US and signs of stabilization in global growth. This “risk-on” environment typically benefits the NZD, and we are seeing this reflected in the slight bullish bias for NZDUSD. Moreover, China's economic stabilization efforts, especially in the property sector, have provided additional support for commodity-exporting countries like New Zealand, bolstering the NZD. 5. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, NZDUSD has been testing key support levels in recent trading sessions, and a bounce from these levels is likely to fuel further upside. The 50-day moving average (MA) has recently crossed above the 200-day MA, forming a bullish “golden cross,” which is a positive signal for further upside movement in the short term. In addition, RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings are indicating that the pair is not yet in overbought territory, suggesting more room for the bullish momentum to continue. Conclusion In summary, the NZDUSD pair is expected to maintain a slight bullish bias on 16th October 2024, driven by several key fundamental factors. Strong New Zealand economic data, a hawkish RBNZ stance, US Dollar weakness, positive global risk sentiment, and favorable technical signals all contribute to the optimistic outlook for NZDUSD today. However, traders should remain cautious of any unexpected developments that could shift the market sentiment. Keywords: NZDUSD, New Zealand Dollar, US Dollar, Forex Analysis, 16th October 2024, bullish bias, RBNZ, Federal Reserve, US inflation, interest rates, forex market, technical analysis, risk sentiment, currency trading, New Zealand economy, NZD strength, TradingView analysis, forex forecast, USD weakness.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
Will the Pound Show a Slight Bullish Bias Today? (15/10/2024)The GBPUSD pair is expected to display a slight bullish bias today, 15/10/2024, based on the latest fundamental factors and market conditions. Traders and investors are closely watching the movements in the British pound against the U.S. dollar, as the market sentiment shifts amid key macroeconomic events. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers supporting this outlook: 1. UK Economic Data: CPI Expectations The UK inflation report, which is set to be released later this week, is on the radar for traders. Early forecasts indicate that inflation may remain slightly elevated, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates. This anticipation tends to lend strength to the pound, as higher interest rates make a currency more attractive to investors seeking better yields. In recent months, the BoE has been steadfast in its approach to combating inflation, a stance that has provided support for the British pound, making GBPUSD sensitive to any inflation-related news. With inflation still a concern, a bullish bias for the pound can be justified, particularly in the lead-up to the CPI report. 2. US Dollar Softness: Lower Treasury Yields On the U.S. side, the U.S. dollar (USD) has seen some softness due to declining Treasury yields and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future of interest rates. Last week’s economic data pointed to potential cooling in the U.S. labor market and lower inflationary pressures, which have reduced the market's expectations for further rate hikes in 2024. With the Federal Reserve signaling that it may be nearing the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle, the U.S. dollar’s recent rally has stalled, giving room for pairs like GBPUSD to gain traction. This contributes to the bullish bias in the pair for today. 3. UK Political Stability and Brexit Sentiment Another factor supporting the pound’s slight bullish stance is the current phase of relative political stability in the UK. After the volatile post-Brexit years, the UK government is focused on stabilizing the economy. Any developments or positive sentiment surrounding trade agreements with the EU or other major trading partners could further boost the pound's strength. Brexit-related concerns have been less dominant recently, which has helped reduce the uncertainty that previously weighed on the pound. If this political calm continues, the GBPUSD pair could benefit from increased investor confidence in the pound. 4. Technical Analysis: Support at 1.2150 From a technical analysis perspective, the GBPUSD has found solid support around the 1.2150 level, which has held strong in recent trading sessions. As long as this support remains intact, the pair has the potential to make upward moves. Additionally, momentum indicators such as the RSI are showing signs of recovery from oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term bullish reversal. If the pair manages to break above the 1.2200 resistance level, we could see further gains towards the next key resistance level of 1.2300. 5. Global Market Sentiment In the broader market context, risk sentiment is playing a significant role in driving currency movements. If global markets continue to show risk-on sentiment, with equity markets rising and risk assets in favor, the British pound could see additional support against the U.S. dollar. Given the factors of strong inflation expectations in the UK, a softer U.S. dollar, and a technical setup that supports higher prices, the GBPUSD may be positioned for slight bullish movement today. Conclusion In conclusion, today’s GBPUSD outlook points towards a slightly bullish bias . While the U.S. dollar continues to show signs of weakness amid lower Treasury yields and potential pauses in the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, the British pound is drawing strength from expected higher inflation in the UK, the BoE’s hawkish stance, and a generally stable political environment. Traders should watch the upcoming inflation data and key resistance levels to confirm this bullish trend. Keywords for SEO: GBPUSD forecast, GBPUSD analysis, GBPUSD today, British Pound outlook, GBPUSD bullish, UK inflation report, Federal Reserve, GBPUSD technical analysis, Bank of England, Treasury yields, Brexit sentiment, Forex trading, GBPUSD trend 15/10/2024, GBPUSD prediction, Forex market news, currency trading
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
Event-Driven Strategy using Bitcoin Weekly FuturesCME: Bitcoin Weekly Futures ( MIL:BFF ) On Thursday, October 10th, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. However, the headline CPI came in ahead of the 0.1% monthly gain and 2.3% year-over-year rate expected by analysts polled by Dow Jones. As a result, both the US equity markets and cryptocurrencies slipped on Thursday. While the year-over-year headline CPI is the lowest since February 2021, digging into the category data reveals sticky inflation. Noticeable data includes: • Food: +2.3% YoY. However, Eggs jumped 39.6%, while “nonconcentrated juices + soft drinks” category was up 15.3%. • Motor vehicle insurance: +16.3% YoY • Video discs + other media: +11.6% YoY • Admission to sporting events: +10.3% YoY • Health insurance: +7.5% YoY High prices affect day-to-day life and contradict the notion of low inflation. The fact is that prices have gone up a lot in the past few years. Even though they rise more slowly now, the absolute price levels remain high. Examples from my personal experiences: • The $9 price tag for 1-1/2 dozen eggs caused me to reduce purchase to 1-dozon for $5. I still remember the good old days of 99-cent per dozen large eggs. • I watched a WNBC match featuring Indianapolis Fever and Catlin Clark in the summer. A seat close by the basketball court costs $200. Adding up hotel stay, fuel cost and a $50 T-shirt, this felt like a vacation budget. • A recent doctor’s visit required copayment of $100. Six months ago, the same clinic charged $75. This is a 33.3% increase. Event to Watch: The Next Fed Rate Decision Retrospectively, it appears that the Federal Reserve acted a bit too aggressively with the supersized 50-bp rate cut in September. With the sticky inflation data, the Fed’s next move on November 7th is uncertain. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, as of October 11th, the futures market expects the Fed to cut 25 basis points at the next FOMC meeting, with an 88.4% probability. Gone are the odds of another supersized cut. Meanwhile, the probability of a no-cut increases to 11.6%. www.cmegroup.com Driven by the lowered expectation on Fed rate cuts, on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.14% to 42,454, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.21% to settle at 5,780. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite shaved up 10 points (-0.05%) and closed at 18,282. The cryptocurrency market has a more pronounced reaction. Bitcoin gave up the psychologically important $60K level, lost $1,442 (or -2.36%) and settled at $59,564. Meanwhile, ETHER gave up $57.2 (or -2.38%) and closed at $2,356. However, market sentiments are still very bullish. By Friday, strong Q3 earnings reported by JPMorgan and Well Fargo helped push the stock market up again, with the S&P 500 breaking 5,800 and making its 45th all-time high in 2024. In my opinion, Bitcoin futures would be a good instrument for event-driven trades on the Fed rate decisions, given its higher volatility. Introducing Bitcoin Friday Futures Bitcoin Friday futures ( MIL:BFF ) are weekly, USD-settled contracts that offer a more precise way to gain bitcoin exposure and manage risk relating to such exposure. Each contract represents 1/50 of a bitcoin, ensuring capital efficiency and accessibility. The contract size of BFF is 1/5 of that of Micro Bitcoin Futures ( NYSE:MBC ), which is 1/10 of a Bitcoin. These shorter-dated contracts expire and settle to the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate New York Variant (BRRNY) every Friday at 4:00 p.m. New York time and may track the spot price of bitcoin more closely. Futures contracts traditionally expire on a monthly or quarterly basis, such as BTC and MBT, whereas BFF will settle weekly every Friday. Because of this shorter duration, BFF will have a shorter cost of carry resulting in a price that may more closely track bitcoin’s spot price. Bitcoin futures price = bitcoin spot price + financing costs to carry the position to expiration Two consecutive Fridays will be listed at any time. A new BFF contract will be listed every Thursday at 6:00 p.m. New York time such that market participants will be able to trade the nearest Friday plus the next two Fridays giving traders the choice to hold or not hold exposure over the weekend depending on their preference. Trade Setup using BFF for the FOMC Event The Federal Open Market Committee will release its next rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on Thursday, November 7th. The BFF contract expiring Friday, November 8th will begin trading at 6:00 PM Eastern Time on Thursday, October 24th. A trade could be set up on or after October 24th, and closed by November 7th or 8th, after the market reacts to the Fed decision and before contract expiration. While the market overwhelmingly expects the Fed to cut 25 bps, new data could change the expectations dramatically in the next four weeks. The most important data points are: • BLS Nonfarmed Payroll and Unemployment, November 1st • US Presidential Election, November 5th Separately, the next BLS CPI release will be on November 13th, after the BFF November 8th contract. We could use the BFF November 15th contract to trade on that event. As an educational writeup, I do not offer a personal view on the future direction of BFF prices. With basic information provided here, traders could apply their own view to set up a trade on BFF. Generally, if the Fed cuts rates in December, stocks and cryptocurrencies could get a lifting as lower rates reduce the cost of capital. Meanwhile, if the Fed pauses and decides on no-cuts, the uncertainty on interest rate trajectory could cause risk capital to fall. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
4
CNH: Chinese Currency Could Return to the 6.3-6.9 LevelCME: USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( CME:CNH1! ) Last week, I discussed how China’s huge stimulus package, coupled with the Fed’s supersized rate cut, could improve global energy demand and lift crude oil higher. As soon as the stimulus was announced, China’s stock market staged a huge rally. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index moved from below 2,800 on September 24th to close at 3,336.5 on September 30th, up 19% in a week. One-month return for the SSE and notable Chinese stocks are listed here: • SSE: +17.5% • Yonghui Supermarkets: +59.9% • JD: +51.3% • BABA: +32.5% • BIDU: +25.5% China's stock market is closed on October 1st-7th for observation of the National Day holiday. Would the China rally continue when the market resumes trading on Tuesday? Goldman Sachs just released a research note, saying: Unless China does QE now, the current market rally will crash and burn, and the economy will be a crater. If China does do QE, oil will soar, and gold and bitcoin will be orders of magnitude higher. While this is presented as two alternative paths, there is only one way to go, in all practical purpose. After going all out last month with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, the Chinese government could not afford to see the stock market and the housing market to tank again. It really needs to finish the job by injecting fiscal stimulus into the economy. Now that the market sensation has already turned positive, government spending would trigger consumer spending as well as investment from the private sector. Such a multiplier effect could lift the Chinese economy higher. Everything looks bright, with one small problem: China-listed stocks are off-limited to most foreign investors due to financial regulations and the foreign currency control regime. China’s currency could strengthen as its economy recovers I hold the view that the China’s currency could appreciate as its economy improves. Outside of China, investors could invest in USD/RMB futures to hitch the economic hike. To start the discussion, let’s first make some clarification to the confusing terms in the FX market. The USD/RMB exchange rate is quoted as the number of RMB per dollar. The current USD/RMB rate is 7.09, meaning each dollar could exchange for 7.09 RMB. When the RMB appreciates against the dollar, the price quote would get lower, not higher. For example, the rate 6.50 means you now need 6.50 RMB to get one USD dollar. In RMB terms, this is 0.59 Yuan less than the current USD/RMB rate 7.09. In this scenario, the RMB gains value relative to the dollar. While the RMB appreciation equates to the dollar depreciation, in charts, the lines representing USD/RMB and the dollar index should move in the same direction. • For dollar index, the line moving up means dollar gaining value. • For the USD/RMB, the line moving up means the dollar appreciating against the RMB. • These two things usually occur at the same time. In 2023, as China’s economy did not rebound after the end of the pandemic closedown, the RMB depreciated more than 10% against the dollar, sending the rate from 6.69 to 7.37. In 2024, the two lines diverged due to different economic forces. • Dollar index moves down with the market expectation of the Fed cutting rates, reducing the interest earned from holding dollar asset. • The USD/RMB quote moves up because of the slowdown in China’s economy. In my opinion, the two lines will converge again, both moving down in Q4. Dollar index will get lower as the Fed continues rate cuts. The USD/RMB quote will also go lower, as improvement in China’s economy would strengthen the country’s currency. For someone with a bullish view of RMB, he could establish a short position in CME USD/Offshore RMB Futures ( NYSE:CNH ). Remember, shorting means the expectation of the quote to go lower, which actually means RMB appreciating against the dollar. The contract has a notional value of $100,000. At Friday closing price of 7.061, each December contract (CNHZ4) is worth RMB 706,100. CME Group requires an initial margin of RMB 14,000 for each CNH contract, long or short, at the time of writing. Hypothetically, if CNH bounced back to 6.70, its previous high in January 2023, the quote difference of 361 pips (=7061-6700) would produce a gain of RMB 36,100 (=0.361x100,000) for a short position. The risk of shorting the CNH is that the Chinese government did not follow through with a fiscal stimulus, and the market rally is short lived. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:CNH1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
Interest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate DecisionsInterest Rate Strategies: Trade Smarter with Fed Rate Decisions Trading interest rates may seem straightforward at first: buy when cuts end and sell when they fall. However, this approach often defies expectations, as determining when rate cuts truly end isn't as simple as pointing to a rate pause following a cut. While today’s Federal Reserve rate decisions are made during scheduled (and unscheduled emergency) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, this wasn’t always the case. Before the 1990s, the Fed often made changes outside of meetings. The shift to exclusively deciding rates during FOMC meetings was implemented to provide greater transparency and predictability for markets. Topics Covered: How Are Interest Rates Traded? Three Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies. Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself). █ How Are Interest Rates Traded? This strategy focuses on trading around Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, including hikes (increases), cuts (decreases), and pauses. These decisions are believed by many to have both short- and long-term effects on the market. Key Strategy Concepts Backtested: Buy on Rate Pauses or Increases: Go long (buy) when the Fed pauses or raises interest rates, typically signaling market stability or optimism. Sell on Rate Decreases: Go short (sell) or close longs when the Fed cuts rates, often indicating economic concerns or slowing growth. Buy on Specific Rate Decreases: Enter trades when the Fed implements specific rate cuts, such as 50 basis points (bps) which represents 0.5%, and analyze market reactions over different time horizons. █ Strategy: Long during Pauses and Increases, Short during Decreases This section examines the effectiveness of going long on rate pauses or increases and shorting during decreases. This strategy performed well between 2001 and 2009, but underperformed after 2009 and before 2001 compared to holding positions. The main challenge is the unpredictability of future rate changes. If you could foresee rate trends over two years, decision-making would be easier, but that’s rarely the case, making this strategy less reliable in certain periods. 2001-2009 Trade Result: 67.02% Holding Result: -31.19% 2019-2021 Trade Result: 19.28% Holding Result: 25.22% 1971-Present Trade Result: 444.13% Holding Result: 5694.12% █ Strategy: Long 50bps Rate Cuts This section evaluates trading around 50 basis point (bps) rate cuts, which is a 0.5% decrease. Large cuts usually respond to economic stress, and market reactions can vary. While these cuts signal aggressive economic stimulation by the Fed, short-term responses are often unpredictable. The strategy tends to perform better over longer timeframes, as markets absorb the effects. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -0.19% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.41% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 2.46% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 11.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -2.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -1.84% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -3.72% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 1.72% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -15.79% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -6.11% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 7.07% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 29.92% █ Strategy: Long Any Rate Cuts This section reviews the performance of buying after any rate cut, not just large ones. Rate cuts usually signal economic easing and often improve market conditions in the long run. However, the size of the cut and its context greatly influence how the market reacts over different timeframes. 1971-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: 0.33% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 2.65% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 4.38% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 8.4% 2001-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -1.12% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: -0.69% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: -1.59% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 0.22% 2009-Present Trade Duration: 10 trading days — Average Return: -3.38% Trade Duration: 50 trading days — Average Return: 3.26% Trade Duration: 100 trading days — Average Return: 12.55% Trade Duration: 250 trading days — Average Return: 12.54% █ Key Insights from Backtesting Interest Rate Trading Strategies The first assumption I wanted to test was whether you should sell when rate cuts begin and buy when they end. The results were inconclusive, mainly due to the difficulty of predicting when rate cuts will stop. A rate pause might suggest cuts are over, but that’s often not the case, as shown below. One key finding is that the best time to be fully invested is when rates fall below 1.25% or 1.00%, as this has historically led to stronger market performance. But this can be subject to change. █ Interest Rate Trading Indicator (Backtest For Yourself) Indicator Used For Backtesting (select chart below to open): The 'Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) ' indicator analyzes U.S. interest rate decisions to determine trade entries and exits based on user-defined criteria, such as rate increases, decreases, pauses, aggressive changes, and more. It visually marks key decision dates, including both rate changes and pauses, offering valuable insights for trading based on interest rate trends. Historical time periods are highlighted for additional context. The indicator also allows users to compare the performance of an interest rate trading strategy versus a holding strategy.
SP:SPXEducation
by TanHef
M2K: SmallCap May Get a Big Lift with Rate Cuts UnderwayCME: Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 Futures ( GETTEX:M2K ) Global financial market orbits around Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Hiking interest rates means monetary tightening while cutting them signals easing. In the past three years, we have witnessed a full cycle of Fed hikes and now its reversal. • In March 2022, as inflation rose rapidly, the Fed started a series of rate increases, pushing the Fed Funds rate up by 525 basis points from 0-0.25% to 5.25-5.50%. • In September 2023, after 11 consecutive rate hikes, the Fed put the brake on. It kept the Fed Funds unchanged for a full year in eight FOMC meetings. • Last Wednesday, the Fed finally entered the long-awaited rate cut cycle. It slashed interest rates by a supersized half point, or 50 basis points, in its first cut since 2020. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the latest reading of headline CPI is 2.5% in August, down 6.6% from its peak in July 2022. We may conclude that the Fed has largely completed its mission of combating inflation. The BLS data shows that the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.2% in August 2024 from 3.6% two years ago in August 2022. Fed’s easing signals its pivot to the second mandate, to support full employment. Lowering interest rates could reduce borrowing costs, and in return help business expansion and employment. Russell 2000: SmallCap may get the biggest Boost The discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates the present value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. A lower cost of capital (CoC) shall cause the price of the investment to go up, other things equal. Small companies would gain the most compared to larger corporations. In the preceding rate hike cycle, they were hit hard as credit standards got tightened and credit spreads expanded. We will now see the reversal. Russell 2000 is the benchmark stock market index for US small companies. CME Micro E-mini Russell 2000 futures ( GETTEX:M2K ) were settled at 2,252.6 on Friday, up 10.05% year-to-date. For a comparison, the S&P 500 gained 19.50% YTD as of Friday, while the Nasdaq 100 was up 17.59%. In my opinion, the major stock indexes rose on the back of the AI-driven technological breakthroughs, where Big Tech dominated but few Small Cap companies could benefit. In this new cycle, lowered borrowing costs and the abundance of credit could help small businesses improve their balance sheets. The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates in the next two years. Corporate bond yields could likely return to the 2-3% range. The credit spreads, including Baa-Bbb, Baa-Bb, and Baa-Ccc, would likely get smaller. This could bring further boost to the Russell index. Could we quantify the impact of rate cuts? Let’s illustrate this with a $1 million payment, to be received in five years. • Applying the BBB corporate bond yield of 4.88% as the CoC, present value of $1 million will be $788,019. • If the CoC moves down by 250 bps to 2.38%, the PV will be increased to $889,046. • This shows that a 2.5% reduction in CoC could boost the PV by 12.8%. The same concept would work on the Russell index. CoC could drop either due to interest rate decrease or because of the narrowing of credit spread, which favors smaller companies. The result would be an increase in the market value of Russell component companies. For someone with a bullish view of the Russell 2000, he could establish a long position in CME Micro E-mini Russell 2000 futures. The contract has a notional value at $5 times the index. At Friday closing price of 2,252.6, each December contract (M2KZ4) is worth $11,263. CME Group requires an initial margin of $760 for each M2K contract, long or short. The Fed will next convene on November 5th-6th and meet one last time in 2024 on December 17th-18th. In my opinion, if the Fed continues lowering rates in these two meetings, Russell 2000 could likely move up further. Hypothetically, if the Russell is 5% higher by December, the 113-point increase would translate into $563 (=2252.6*0.05*$5) gain per contract for the long holder. The risk of long futures is the index going down. If inflation spikes unexpectedly, the Fed could possibly pause its rate cuts, casting doubt on the future rate trajectory. For more experienced traders, put options on the E-Mini Russell 2000 futures could be deployed to hedge the downside risk. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M2K1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
USDJPY Weekly Outlook: Slightly Bullish Bias – September 23,2024USDJPY Weekly Outlook: Slightly Bullish Bias – September 23, 2024 The USDJPY pair has been a focal point for traders, and as we enter the week of September 23, 2024, a slightly bullish bias seems to be developing. Several key factors suggest that the US Dollar (USD) could continue to edge higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY), driven by fundamental and technical market conditions. This article provides an in-depth analysis, highlighting critical elements affecting USDJPY this week. Key Drivers Behind the Bullish Bias for USDJPY 1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance The primary driver for the USD strength is the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary policy stance. With the central bank signaling that interest rates could remain elevated for an extended period, the US Dollar has found solid support. Traders are pricing in the possibility that the Fed may hike rates again in the near future, which tends to strengthen the USD. Higher interest rates in the U.S. make the dollar more attractive to investors compared to the low-yielding Japanese Yen, which still sits in a negative interest rate environment. 2. BOJ's Ultra-Dovish Policy The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, with no significant shifts expected in the near term. This dovish stance puts pressure on the Japanese Yen, especially as other central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are moving toward tighter monetary policies. The policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the BOJ remains a significant factor driving USDJPY higher. 3. US Economic Strength Recent U.S. economic data has shown resilience, with key indicators such as employment figures, retail sales, and inflation trends supporting the idea that the economy is in a solid position. This economic strength underpins the USD's upward trajectory. The robust economic outlook increases the likelihood of sustained monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, further bolstering the USD. 4. Safe-Haven Flows Favoring USD Over JPY While the Japanese Yen has traditionally been a safe-haven currency, the USD has increasingly taken on that role in times of global uncertainty. With ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth, the USD has been more appealing to investors seeking safety, diminishing the Yen's haven status. This factor adds to the bullish momentum for USDJPY. 5. Technical Factors Supporting USDJPY From a technical standpoint, USDJPY has been trading in a bullish channel, with higher highs and higher lows observed on the daily chart. Key support levels around 148.00 have held strong, providing a base for potential upside movement. On the upside, a break above the 149.50 resistance could trigger further gains, targeting the psychological level of 150.00. Conclusion: USDJPY Slightly Bullish This Week In conclusion, USDJPY is expected to exhibit a slightly bullish bias this week, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, the BOJ’s dovish approach, and the relative strength of the US economy. Safe-haven flows are also favoring the USD over the Yen, while technical factors suggest room for further upside. As we navigate the markets this week, traders should closely monitor central bank commentary, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments, as these will likely shape USDJPY’s trajectory in the coming days. SEO Keywords: USDJPY analysis, USDJPY forecast, USDJPY bullish bias, USDJPY September 23 2024, Federal Reserve USDJPY impact, BOJ monetary policy, USDJPY technical analysis, US dollar strength, USDJPY interest rate divergence, USDJPY safe-haven flows, USDJPY trading strategy.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
Lower Rates Expected by 9/27/24Ahead of the Fed meeting Wednesday the market was pretty much 50/50 split on whether the fed funds rate would be cut by 25 or 50 basis points. After the 50bps announcement the counter intuitive move occurred, which was rates began rising, but this should have been a surprise. This was as straight forward "buy the rumor, sell the news" gets. Today however it appears the rates attempted to rally past 3.76% but failed. 3.76% happens to be the 50% fib level from the recent highs to lows and now we'll look to see the 10-yr break below 3.70 for a sustained move lower. Marking this as a "Long Investment Idea" since lower rates imply higher bond prices, don't be fooled by the rate chart.
TVC:US10YLong
by jpoma13
Federal Reserve Cut Sends Bitcoin UpThis week, the Federal Reserve delivered a highly anticipated 50 basis point interest rate cut, the first of its kind in over four years. Crypto markets, as expected, reacted swiftly, with Bitcoin jumping over 4% and breaking past the $62,000 level. The broader cryptocurrency market followed, with Ethereum, Solana, and others posting gains as investors recalibrated to the Fed’s more dovish stance. But while the headlines may paint a picture of optimism, market sentiment remains divided. For some, this rate cut signals the beginning of a new liquidity-driven rally. For others, it raises red flags about the health of the economy. At first glance, the Fed’s decision was a boon for risk assets. With the dollar weakening, Bitcoin benefitted as investors sought alternative stores of value. In just a day, Bitcoin crossed the $62K mark for the first time in weeks, while Ethereum hovered around $2,350. But traders are already questioning how long this rally can last. A significant portion of the crypto market remains unconvinced. Analysts are cautious, noting that the aggressive nature of the rate cut might signal deeper economic concerns. The 50 bps reduction, larger than initially predicted, seems to be an attempt to stay ahead of a potential economic slowdown, with rising unemployment and muted inflation indicating trouble on the horizon. Despite the positive price movement, questions remain. The $1.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options set to expire this week could lead to increased volatility, with a put-to-call ratio suggesting that traders are evenly split between bullish and bearish positions. Bitcoin’s maximum pain point sits around $58,500, raising the possibility of near-term price declines if the market takes a turn. Looking ahead, traders are already placing bets on further rate cuts. With the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings scheduled for November and December, expectations are building for an additional reduction by the end of the year. However, the size of the cut remains to be seen. Polymarket, a popular crypto prediction market, indicates high uncertaintly as to the size of the cut. Currently, traders see a 57% chance on a 25bps decrease. This has prompted speculation that Bitcoin could retest its all-time high, but there are also plenty of risks ahead. Additionally, the timing of the next rate cut is crucial. If the Fed’s easing aligns with the US presidential election in November, the market could experience heightened volatility. Although pro-crypto stances from candidates like Trump are seen as positive for Bitcoin, uncertainty around the election could still rattle investor confidence. For now, the market is cautiously optimistic. Bitcoin’s surge post-cut is encouraging, but it’s still too early to declare the start of a new bull run. Institutional inflows, buoyed by the growing popularity of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, suggest that long-term sentiment remains positive. However, it’s clear that many investors are hedging their bets, bracing for potential market turbulence as the year progresses. Patience will be key in the weeks ahead. The crypto market has always been volatile, and while the Fed’s rate cut provides a temporary boost, the broader economic picture remains uncertain. Traders will need to keep a close eye on both the macroeconomic landscape and the internal dynamics of the crypto market as the year draws to a close. In the meantime, the Fed’s next move will be crucial. With more rate cuts likely on the horizon, the question is whether the crypto market can continue its upward momentum. Otherwise, another period of turbulence is in store.
Long
by Coinrule
Interest Rates Dropped to 5%!The fact the Federal Reserve & U.S. government cut interest rates by 50BPS, more then they were expected to, goes to show that interest rates have done MORE DAMAGE then they were suppose to, to the economy. Now the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50BPS, is them trying to put on a show to the public & saying “look we know the damage has been done by us, but we are trying to rectify it by making rates lower” GET READY FOR A GLOBAL FINANCIAL & ECONOMY CRASH IN 2025!
TVC:DXYLong
by BA_Investments
SPY500 $SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024SPY AMEX:SPY | RALLY AFTER FED RATE CUT - Sep. 19th, 2024 BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $552.50 - $575.00 WEAKER BULLISH ZONE (PALE GREEN): $552.50 - $540.50 Weekly: Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish This was my analysis for the end of the day yesterday, forgot to post it. Price has already rallied fairly well today. The Fed cut rates yesterday 50bps, down from 5.50 to 5.00. Here is what I was looking at as the market became volatile when reacting to the news. Despite the market already quickly moving in favor of the bullish zone, I still think we will reach the top of that zone before any form of reversal or significant pullback. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, spy, sp500, s&p, AMEX:SPY , fed, federalreserve, fedrate, fedratecut, interestrate, jeromepowell, fedchair, 50bps, volatile, volatility,
AMEX:SPYLong
by TonyAiello
Fed Kicks Off Rate-Cutting Cycle. Why the Muted Market Reaction?Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed? Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally in stocks. Maybe gold XAU/USD flickered a bit, but it was mostly froth . And here we are — the first day of trading in an environment with lower interest rates. Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday the first trim to borrowing costs in four years. The move ushers in a new normal where US interest rates USINTR are projected to continue moving lower from their 23-year high of 5.5%. The easing cycle kicked off with a jumbo-sized 50 bps (basis points) slash. Surprisingly, the Fed went for the juicier, bolder and more aggressive option, leapfrogging the less interesting and exciting cut of 25 bps. First reactions across the board showed investors were hyped to get what they wanted — the broad-based S&P 500 hit an intraday record . Shortly after, however, stocks across the board pulled back and markets became anxious over the outlook as the realization kicked in. If the economy is doing fine, why go big on cuts from the get-go? What’s more, central bankers are keen to ax interest rates by another half point in 2024, ultimately wrapping up the year with the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25% to 4.5%. Christmas may come early — the Fed meets twice more this year, on November 7 and December 18. Better Safe Than Sorry? A super-sized half-point cut could actually be a pre-emptive measure to alleviate a strained economy. But if inflation is now largely in the rearview mirror , what could the problem be? The other mandate. The Fed has a dual mandate of keeping prices in check (inflation) and upholding a stable labor market (jobs). “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability,” Jay Powell said at the annual Jackson Hole gathering last month. And indeed, America’s jobs have seen a pronounced slowdown over the past few months. In July, markets added just 89,000 jobs (revised from an initial estimation of 114,000 ). In August, hiring had picked up modestly to 142,000 , but below expectations for 164,000. Pros and Cons of Bumper Cut Essentially, this big-boy cut of 50 bps is a double-edged sword. It cuts into borrowing costs, making money more affordable, potentially stimulating businesses to add more jobs and grow their gig. And it also prompts consumers to take on debt and get that house. But on the flip side, a cut of that magnitude risks stirring up price pressures again. To get to full employment, the Fed faces the challenge of knocked inflation waking up from its slumber. The size of the cut at this particular time doesn’t mean anything without the markets’ reaction to it. Apparently, investors were unimpressed and shrugged it off as no big deal. Looking ahead, however, the stakes are high because stocks are at all-time highs. The S&P 500 touched a record, Big Tech is leading the charge into artificial intelligence and investors can’t own enough of the highflyers Nvidia NVDA , Meta META , Apple AAPL , etc. The actual picture will become clear once markets figure out what the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle means and what to do about it.
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by TradingView
25
“Dollar Index Declines After Fed Decision”The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its policy rate for the first time in four years, lowering it by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75%-5.00%. Following this decision, the decline in the dollar index accelerated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the decision shows increased confidence in maintaining a strong labor market while ensuring moderate growth and bringing inflation down to 2% sustainably. Additionally, the Fed lowered its federal funds rate projection for the end of this year from 5.1% to 4.4%, suggesting the possibility of a further 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed this year. Technically, if the index falls below the 100.50 level, the 100.0 and 99.50 levels can be considered support. However, if it recovers and moves above the 101.0 level, resistance can be observed at the 101.85 and 102.70 levels.
TVC:DXY
by primequotes
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re expecting some volatility this Session with the pending FOMC statement so for this report we’ll again look at the extreme levels. We’ve done well already this week, no need to risk anything trying to capture tops and bottoms, so keep an eye on the levels but remember, the trade comes after the event. The move started early in the week with the price hitting our resistance level and then making the move we wanted completing our first target. This has however left the completion of the move on the table, so we’ll stick with Sundays KOG Report idea for now, but expect a move to the upside potentially into that 2602-5 region and above that 2610! It’s 2610 as the extension that needs to reject the price in order for it make that move downside, as breaking above that will take us further into the 2625-30 region before any breather. So, as the chart shows, if we get 2602-5 and reject, we could see price move downside to clear the liquidity sitting first at 2550-55 and below that 2525-30. 2525-35 if visited, we feel would represent an opportunity to capture the swing low and then attempt to target that 2550-55 region as the first target. We’re going to play it safe this time and say if it works it works, if it doesn’t, it doesn’t. If you followed us this week, again we’ve done what we needed to for the week, everything else here is a bonus and should be treated with minimal risk on the markets, until they have settled. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
3
Pre FOMC Rates Decision Analysis18th September DXY: Consolidate around 100.90, (if 50bps cut) needs to break 100.60 to trade down to 100 round number support. (if 25bps cut) bounce from 100.60 to bearish trendline NZDUSD: Buy 0.6220 SL 25 TP 75 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Buy 0.6780 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Look for test and reject of resistance area, Sell 1.32 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength) EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 25 TP 50 OR Sell 1.1110 SL 20 TP 50 (Straddle) USDJPY: Buy 142.80 SL 50 TP 150 (DXY strength) USDCHF: Sell 0.8420 SL 30 TP 45 (DXY weakness) USDCAD: Sell 1.3560 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY weakness) Gold: Could range between 2570 and 2590, Looking for a test of 2600 and possible correction lower
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Rate Cut Incoming. Buckle Up"What the Yield Curve and Fed Moves Mean for Your Next Trade." Historically, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate while the yield spread is negative (also known as an inverted yield curve), it has often been an indicator of an impending market correction or recession. Let’s break this down: Historically, the bond market is a key indicator. Typically, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds; This a healthy sign. When that flips and short-term yields surpass long-term ones, we get what’s called an inverted yield curve. This inversion signals that investors are getting nervous about the near-term economy. When the Fed then steps in to lower rates, they’re trying to stimulate growth, but it often comes too late. Looking back at past events: The dot-com crash of 2000: The yield curve inverted, the Fed cut rates, and a 35% market correction followed. The 2008 financial crisis: Again, the yield curve inverted, rates were cut, and the market saw a major downturn exceeding 50%. Going back even further, the same pattern held in the 1970s and 1980s. The big questions are: Why does this combination signal trouble? Will this pattern repeat itself again? While history tends to repeat itself, the data shows that when the Fed cuts rates with a negative yield spread, market corrections often follow. The inverted curve suggests tighter credit conditions, reduced lending, and lack of confidence, all piling on top of one another creating a recipe for disaster. Stepping back even further, we see that investor sentiment and the bond market tend to lead the way. Credit tightens, and companies cut back on spending. Another a perfect recipe for an economic slowdown and market drop. It's a familiar cycle. So lets buckle up.
TVC:DJIShort
by oh92
1