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BLK: Outflows will hurt?BLACKROCK Short Term - We look to Sell at 602.67 (stop at 646.89) The primary trend remains bearish. Sentiment remains negative despite the pull-back higher in prices. Previous support at 610.00 now becomes resistance. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 505.63 and 470.00 Resistance: 610.00 / 760.00 / 900.00 Support: 505.00 / 450.00 / 350.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:BLKShort
by VantageMarkets
Inflation not going to slow down for the US until 2028In the short term - like today! 8:30 EST 13 Oct 2022 If the CPI (measures inflation) comes out at above 8.2% this could lead to a market crash as the Fed would likely raise interest rates by another 100 bps on 2 November to curb inflation. If the CPI comes out below 8.2 this could spark a market rally as they will believe inflation is starting to cool down. In the long term. Price broke out of the W Formation and is showing major upside to come for Inflation. This could go on until 2028... If this happens, there is a potential Depression that could kick in world wide. This depression would then last for another 10 - 20 years (if they can get it under control). We need a government and quantitative reset... Sorry for the doom and gloom but it's not looking good technically.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by Timonrosso
USDCAD: Buy dips!USDCAD Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.3750 (stop at 1.3690) Previous support located at 1.3800. Previous resistance located at 1.3850. Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. Our profit targets will be 1.3870 and 1.3900 Resistance: 1.3850 / 1.3870 / 1.3900 Support: 1.3800 / 1.3750 / 1.3700 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
The Fed is likely to increase interest rates furtherEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve reiterate the general directions for the central bank would be more rate hikes, allowing USD/CAD to close at 1.3814 after considerable oscillations, USD/JPY also reached a 24-year high at 146.91. Later tonight, year-on-year US CPI figures are expected to run hot at 8.1% - though lower than 8.3% last month. EUR/USD was last traded at 0.9704, recording minimal growth. The market awaits the German CPI tonight, forecasts estimate a steady 10% rise in September. Although the year-on-year UK GDP has contracted from 2.4% to 2.0%, GBP/USD still rose above the 1.110 level and closed at 1.1103. AUD/USD traded marginally higher at 0.6276. The gold price gradually increased to $1,673.26 an ounce. Struck by recession fears, WTI oil futures fell further to $87.27 a barrel.
by Mitrade_official
8892 on Nasdaq is imminent. It’s again quite simple. 8892 is only 10% lower from here. That’s just still not enough PE compression. We are still up 525% since January 2010. That’s ridiculous. Purely liquidity melt-up not based on any fundamentals. Earnings were also a garage.. If you know this now you’ll take the red pill and understand how Marcus will work going forward and how they always should have worked. Not 0% rates and unlimited quantitive, easing or QE . QT will be massive and constant for years. With rate hikes for foreseeable future. Period. At best. $200 a share for the S&P. Morgan Stanley had it at $190 a share. $200 a share X 14X equals 2800. Now that’s at best. On Nasdaq. Ultimately. After this failed 15 year fed experiment. And PPI sand CPI much higher than anything reported tomorrow or anytime, this will be an extremely deep recession. And 15-20% chance of a depression. Fed funds rate must be above the CPI rate. This is economics 101. Terminal rate will be north of 7%. Not 4%. The Fed will not stop. No matter what, so follow these “God Fibonacci levels” to the tee. Because the market probably has 20% more to fall at a minimum. And then you can talk about at least being somewhat close to properly priced. Everything is overvalued, especially the NASDAQ, which is the worst and S&P. be smart. Energy. Some healthcare, And qqq puts and spy puts. Nov/December time frame. Very important to have a good amount of QQQ and SPY puts. This is what the revenues are made. To hedge your portfolio and gain from times once in every hundred years a lottery ticket. Watch implied Vol. so you don’t over pay. And for godsakes, SELL EVERY SINGLE RALLY WITHOUT HESITATION. EVERY RALLY. Good luck
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by Section3133
4
SPX Bias is BearishBias: Bearish *My bias criteria doesn’t necessarily indicate a directional position - it is based on technical criteria at the close of each trading session. In my opinion, it is time for the broader markets to start accumulating assets / equities. I think it’s time for investors and traders to FIGHT THE FED. The Fed has been wrong for two years, yet the financial markets and economy are putting the ‘trust’ in The Fed that they all of a sudden get it right. We have an insufficient regulator of the Financial System; therefore, a potential risk for Substantial Financial Breakage. We keep hearing The Fed say, “We have many tools, etc.” and yet those same tools were unable to control inflation at 2%; whereas, they allowed it to run rapidly over 8%. The Fed is fighting lagging and backwards data with raising interest rates, of which, take time to impact the U.S. Economy. SPX Upward Levels: 3,719.23 3,699.86 3,679.60 Downward Levels: 3,636.71 3,615.74 3,558.58
SP:SPX
by bsdvs23
Amazon Short PositionCurrently priced at $135 Tesla’s underlying stock price sits between its weekly PP 0.236 and PP 0.382 Fibonacci resistance pivots . Currently priced just below weaker PP 0.382 resistance level the stock is trading above its central PP level. This is a bareish signal. Investors should expect a correction towards its support. Furthermore, Tesla’s underlying price sits outside the 20-day ranged Bollinger’s upper bound. This is also a bareish signal, investors should expect a correction towards it’s lower bound. Based on these signals it’s reasonable to assume a bareish correction towards the Fibonacci’s support. We anticipate Tesla’s underlying price to reach it’s 0.382, R1 resistance pivot before bareish corrections occur. Based on buy trends since the start of the year represented by the green candles, Tesla’s underlying stock price has pretty much reached the top of a buying trend and investors are about to witness bareish corrections. I have presented this using swing low and high prices since the start of the year. Therefore, we have set a purchase price between the PP 0.236 and PP 0.382 resistance level . We anticipate based on buying trends that the green candles will reach a price of at least $137. The team have set a target price in line with the Fibonacci’s middle support pivot of PP 0.706. The buyer should sell around $101.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by vf_investment
3
USD/JPY eyes US nonfarm payrollsUSD/JPY has been hovering close to the 145 line most of the week, and the trend has continued today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.81, down 0.21%. The US releases nonfarm payrolls later today. The release once received massive coverage and was usually a market-move, but the new era of high inflation and global tightening has stolen much of NFP's thunder. Still, the indicator is an important bellwether of the health of the US economy and could provide insights into future rate moves from the Federal Reserve. The consensus for the September nonfarm payrolls stands at 250,000, lower than the 315,000 recorded in August. The US labour market has been very robust, and investor reaction will likely be muted if the consensus is not wide of the mark. The markets will be more focussed on hourly earnings and the participation rate - soft readings would raise speculation that the Fed could ease up sooner rather than later, which would be bearish for the US dollar. Conversely, hot readings would support the Fed remaining hawkish, which would give the US dollar a boost. Japan will also be keeping a close eye on today's US jobs reports. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) has shown that is willing to intervene to prop up the Japanese yen, and a stronger-than-expected NFP could be the trigger for another round of intervention. Since the dramatic intervention on September 22nd, the yen has moved only slightly above the 145 level, which could well be a 'line in the sand' for the MOF.  The MOF intervention, which was meant as a warning against speculators, likely cost 2.84 trillion yen. The move led to Japan's foreign currency reserves falling to their lowest level since 2017. With the Bank of Japan capping JGB yields and the Fed continuing to deliver oversize rate hikes, the US/Japan rate differential is widening, which means the yen will likely continue to lose ground, barring another currency intervention by the MOF. There is resistance at 145.36 and 145.97 USD/JPY has support at 144.29 and 143.68
by OANDA
1
NZD/USD tumbles despite RBNZ hikeNZD/USD started the day with gains but has reversed directions and is sharply lower in the North American session. The New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5657, down 1.38%. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a 0.50% hike, bringing the benchmark to 3.50%, its highest level since 2015. The RBNZ has now hiked rates at eight consecutive meetings and even discussed a super-size 0.75% increase at today's meeting. The RBNZ has been aggressive with its rate-tightening cycle, and there's likely more to come. The rate statement noted that "core consumer inflation is too high" and the labour market remains tight, a signal that the central bank will continue to tighten until inflation has peaked. This means that the November meeting will likely bring a rate hike of 0.50% or 0.25%, depending on economic data and the inflation picture. Inflation hit 7.3% in Q2, up from 6.9 in Q1. One of the dangers of a steep rate-tightening cycle is choking off economic growth and Moody's rating agency said after today's rate hike that a soft land was "increasingly unlikely". The RBNZ might disagree, pointing to a 1.7% gain in GDP in Q2 and a robust labour market. The economy has proven strong enough to bear sharp rate hikes and Governor Orr is looking for a peak in inflation before easing up on rates. September was a disaster for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged a staggering 8.5% and fell to its lowest level since March 2020. NZD/USD has rebounded 2.0% in October, but the currency faces significant headwinds. The escalating conflict in Ukraine, which has seen President Putin annex 15% of Ukrainian territory, and a hawkish Federal Reserve are likely to continue weighing on the New Zealand dollar in the short term. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5712. Below, there is weak support at 0.5639, followed by 0.5522 There is resistance at 0.5829 and 0.5902
by OANDA
USDCAD: Buy dips!USDCAD Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.3475 (stop at 1.3415) Previous support located at 1.3550. Previous resistance located at 1.3600. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. Our profit targets will be 1.3595 and 1.3600 Resistance: 1.3600 / 1.3650 / 1.3700 Support: 1.3550 / 1.3500 / 1.3475 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
NZD/USD - All eyes on RBNZThe New Zealand dollar continues to rally. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5746, up 0.43%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds a meeting on Wednesday. The RBNZ has been aggressive with its rate tightening and is expected to raise rates by 0.50%, which would bring the cash rate to 3.50%, the highest since 2015. Governor Orr has hinted that the rate cycle could be coming to a close soon, but that is still more work to do to tame inflation. In Q2, CPI rose to 7.3%, up from 6.9% in Q1. The economy has performed well, with GDP rising 1.7% in Q2, along with a strong labour market and solid wage growth. This means that Orr can continue to raise rates above 4.0% in the knowledge that the economy is strong enough to handle additional rate hikes. September was a disaster for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 6.5% and fell to its lowest level since March 2020. With the US dollar taking a breather, NZD/USD has rebounded this week, with gains of 2.70%. The volatility could well continue, and the New Zealand dollar is likely to face more headwinds in the short term. First, the risk-related currency has been hit hard as risk apprehension has soared. The war in Ukraine has escalated and the energy crisis facing Western Europe could tip many countries into recession this winter. China's economy has been slowing down, which means less demand for New Zealand exports. Second, the Federal Reserve remains in aggressive mode and is committed to curbing inflation, even if that results in a recession. US Treasury yields have been on an upswing, propelling the US dollar higher against most of the major currencies. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5712. Below, there is support at 0.5639 There is resistance at 0.5829 and 0.5902
by OANDA
UPDATED TRIPLE COMBO CORRECTION CONCEPTBoth X's break their respective channels. Per EW no doubles, triples or triangles permitted in X waves, so would be looking for a clean ABC. Confluences supporting this: Technicals - Bullish divergences on CVD and RSI on higher timeframes - Harmonic conflucence Thesis: - Production numbers in Europe and US came back to today with noteworthy misses, showing demand destruction taking hold and putting pressure on USD. BoA late Friday note that FED's will need to curb rate of hike or risk systemic failures and many commentators echoing the same message post Japan and BoE interventions. Thesis resources: www.forexlive.com www.forexlive.com www.zerohedge.com **NOTE: Previously posted Diagonal - 5 wave count, violates Elliot Wave principles in that 4th wave has not (perhaps yet) broken into the 2nd wave. Therefore WXY or WXYXZ are more likely and fit the current price action.
by Linneaus
1
AUD/USD rebounds ahead of RBAAUD/USD has started the trading week with strong gains. The Aussie is trading at 0.6447, up 0.67%. Is the nasty slide over? The Australian dollar is coming off a third straight losing week. September was a disaster, as AUD/USD plummeted 6.4%. The escalation in the war in Ukraine, which has sapped risk sentiment, and the aggressive Federal Reserve have dampened market appetite for the risk-related Australian dollar. The RBA meets on Tuesday, and Bank members are widely expected to deliver a fifth consecutive hike of 50 basis points, which would take the benchmark rate to 2.85%. After that, the RBA may lower gears to 25bp moves. Governor Lowe has signaled that he would like to shift to 25bp hikes at some point, which would help guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid choking off economic growth. However, there is no indication that inflation has peaked, and soaring inflation was the primary reason for the RBA's sharp rate-hike cycle. The next inflation report will be released in late October, with the RBA November meeting just one week later. It's a safe bet that the size of the rate hike in November will depend to a large extent on that inflation report. In the US, the Fed may make a U-turn in policy before the end of the year, depending on the strength of the economy. The data can be conflicting, which was the case on Friday. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, rose 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July and above the consensus of 4.7%. At the same time, the University of Michigan sentiment index showed that inflation expectations for 5-10 years ticked lower to 2.8%, down from 2.7%. In the meantime, the Fed's hawkish stance has fuelled the US dollar's upswing. AUD/USD has support at 0.6450 and 0.6363 There is resistance at 0.6598 and 0.6685
by OANDA
Out of The Frying Pan, Into The FireIn terms of the global macroeconomic picture, the past two weeks have been nothing short of a firestorm. Last week, the UK government announced plans for unfunded tax cuts and additional government borrowing in the ‘mini budget’. This caused a drastic reduction in market confidence. Consequently the Pound crashed to under $1.04, historically low levels against the U.S. dollar. The volatility currently playing out in financial markets is unprecedented and akin to what we are accustomed to in the world of cryptocurrency. In order to try and stop the sell-off of the pound, yesterday the Bank of England reversed course and announced that it will engage in market operations. This will involve purchasing long-dated UK government bonds (known as gilts) in an attempt to halt the fire sale which was jeopardising major financial players such as Pension Funds. With these market operations, it is now likely that UK inflation levels will rip even higher than the eye-watering levels they are already currently at. The question now becomes, what will be the next central bank to blink and how will this continuous market chaos impact Crypto and other markets? Over the past few days, crypto and wider markets have been holding up relatively well given the state of the wider economic picture. However, with a recession looming the possibility of another leg down looks increasingly likely. In recent weeks we have seen a direct correlation between inflation levels and the price of certain cryptocurrencies. When U.S. inflation data came in on the 13th of September at 8.3%, 0.2% higher than expected, the price of Bitcoin nuked 5% in a matter of minutes. Some market forecasters assume that the Federal Reserve will eventually have to pivot and loosen up its policy, inviting in higher inflation but preserving the global financial system. However, little in the Fed’s communication so far implies that this is either likely or going to happen soon. Ultimately, either decision will have stark consequences for all financial markets, including cryptocurrency. As it stands, a market reprieve and return to an ‘up-only’ bull market seems unlikely in the foreseeable future.
OANDA:UK10YBGBP
by Coinrule