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USD/JPY eyes US nonfarm payrollsUSD/JPY has been hovering close to the 145 line most of the week, and the trend has continued today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.81, down 0.21%. The US releases nonfarm payrolls later today. The release once received massive coverage and was usually a market-move, but the new era of high inflation and global tightening has stolen much of NFP's thunder. Still, the indicator is an important bellwether of the health of the US economy and could provide insights into future rate moves from the Federal Reserve. The consensus for the September nonfarm payrolls stands at 250,000, lower than the 315,000 recorded in August. The US labour market has been very robust, and investor reaction will likely be muted if the consensus is not wide of the mark. The markets will be more focussed on hourly earnings and the participation rate - soft readings would raise speculation that the Fed could ease up sooner rather than later, which would be bearish for the US dollar. Conversely, hot readings would support the Fed remaining hawkish, which would give the US dollar a boost. Japan will also be keeping a close eye on today's US jobs reports. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) has shown that is willing to intervene to prop up the Japanese yen, and a stronger-than-expected NFP could be the trigger for another round of intervention. Since the dramatic intervention on September 22nd, the yen has moved only slightly above the 145 level, which could well be a 'line in the sand' for the MOF.  The MOF intervention, which was meant as a warning against speculators, likely cost 2.84 trillion yen. The move led to Japan's foreign currency reserves falling to their lowest level since 2017. With the Bank of Japan capping JGB yields and the Fed continuing to deliver oversize rate hikes, the US/Japan rate differential is widening, which means the yen will likely continue to lose ground, barring another currency intervention by the MOF. There is resistance at 145.36 and 145.97 USD/JPY has support at 144.29 and 143.68
by OANDA
1
NZD/USD tumbles despite RBNZ hikeNZD/USD started the day with gains but has reversed directions and is sharply lower in the North American session. The New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5657, down 1.38%. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a 0.50% hike, bringing the benchmark to 3.50%, its highest level since 2015. The RBNZ has now hiked rates at eight consecutive meetings and even discussed a super-size 0.75% increase at today's meeting. The RBNZ has been aggressive with its rate-tightening cycle, and there's likely more to come. The rate statement noted that "core consumer inflation is too high" and the labour market remains tight, a signal that the central bank will continue to tighten until inflation has peaked. This means that the November meeting will likely bring a rate hike of 0.50% or 0.25%, depending on economic data and the inflation picture. Inflation hit 7.3% in Q2, up from 6.9 in Q1. One of the dangers of a steep rate-tightening cycle is choking off economic growth and Moody's rating agency said after today's rate hike that a soft land was "increasingly unlikely". The RBNZ might disagree, pointing to a 1.7% gain in GDP in Q2 and a robust labour market. The economy has proven strong enough to bear sharp rate hikes and Governor Orr is looking for a peak in inflation before easing up on rates. September was a disaster for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged a staggering 8.5% and fell to its lowest level since March 2020. NZD/USD has rebounded 2.0% in October, but the currency faces significant headwinds. The escalating conflict in Ukraine, which has seen President Putin annex 15% of Ukrainian territory, and a hawkish Federal Reserve are likely to continue weighing on the New Zealand dollar in the short term. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5712. Below, there is weak support at 0.5639, followed by 0.5522 There is resistance at 0.5829 and 0.5902
by OANDA
USDCAD: Buy dips!USDCAD Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.3475 (stop at 1.3415) Previous support located at 1.3550. Previous resistance located at 1.3600. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. Our profit targets will be 1.3595 and 1.3600 Resistance: 1.3600 / 1.3650 / 1.3700 Support: 1.3550 / 1.3500 / 1.3475 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
NZD/USD - All eyes on RBNZThe New Zealand dollar continues to rally. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5746, up 0.43%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds a meeting on Wednesday. The RBNZ has been aggressive with its rate tightening and is expected to raise rates by 0.50%, which would bring the cash rate to 3.50%, the highest since 2015. Governor Orr has hinted that the rate cycle could be coming to a close soon, but that is still more work to do to tame inflation. In Q2, CPI rose to 7.3%, up from 6.9% in Q1. The economy has performed well, with GDP rising 1.7% in Q2, along with a strong labour market and solid wage growth. This means that Orr can continue to raise rates above 4.0% in the knowledge that the economy is strong enough to handle additional rate hikes. September was a disaster for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 6.5% and fell to its lowest level since March 2020. With the US dollar taking a breather, NZD/USD has rebounded this week, with gains of 2.70%. The volatility could well continue, and the New Zealand dollar is likely to face more headwinds in the short term. First, the risk-related currency has been hit hard as risk apprehension has soared. The war in Ukraine has escalated and the energy crisis facing Western Europe could tip many countries into recession this winter. China's economy has been slowing down, which means less demand for New Zealand exports. Second, the Federal Reserve remains in aggressive mode and is committed to curbing inflation, even if that results in a recession. US Treasury yields have been on an upswing, propelling the US dollar higher against most of the major currencies. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5712. Below, there is support at 0.5639 There is resistance at 0.5829 and 0.5902
by OANDA
UPDATED TRIPLE COMBO CORRECTION CONCEPTBoth X's break their respective channels. Per EW no doubles, triples or triangles permitted in X waves, so would be looking for a clean ABC. Confluences supporting this: Technicals - Bullish divergences on CVD and RSI on higher timeframes - Harmonic conflucence Thesis: - Production numbers in Europe and US came back to today with noteworthy misses, showing demand destruction taking hold and putting pressure on USD. BoA late Friday note that FED's will need to curb rate of hike or risk systemic failures and many commentators echoing the same message post Japan and BoE interventions. Thesis resources: www.forexlive.com www.forexlive.com www.zerohedge.com **NOTE: Previously posted Diagonal - 5 wave count, violates Elliot Wave principles in that 4th wave has not (perhaps yet) broken into the 2nd wave. Therefore WXY or WXYXZ are more likely and fit the current price action.
by Linneaus
1
AUD/USD rebounds ahead of RBAAUD/USD has started the trading week with strong gains. The Aussie is trading at 0.6447, up 0.67%. Is the nasty slide over? The Australian dollar is coming off a third straight losing week. September was a disaster, as AUD/USD plummeted 6.4%. The escalation in the war in Ukraine, which has sapped risk sentiment, and the aggressive Federal Reserve have dampened market appetite for the risk-related Australian dollar. The RBA meets on Tuesday, and Bank members are widely expected to deliver a fifth consecutive hike of 50 basis points, which would take the benchmark rate to 2.85%. After that, the RBA may lower gears to 25bp moves. Governor Lowe has signaled that he would like to shift to 25bp hikes at some point, which would help guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid choking off economic growth. However, there is no indication that inflation has peaked, and soaring inflation was the primary reason for the RBA's sharp rate-hike cycle. The next inflation report will be released in late October, with the RBA November meeting just one week later. It's a safe bet that the size of the rate hike in November will depend to a large extent on that inflation report. In the US, the Fed may make a U-turn in policy before the end of the year, depending on the strength of the economy. The data can be conflicting, which was the case on Friday. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, rose 4.9% in August, up from 4.7% in July and above the consensus of 4.7%. At the same time, the University of Michigan sentiment index showed that inflation expectations for 5-10 years ticked lower to 2.8%, down from 2.7%. In the meantime, the Fed's hawkish stance has fuelled the US dollar's upswing. AUD/USD has support at 0.6450 and 0.6363 There is resistance at 0.6598 and 0.6685
by OANDA
Out of The Frying Pan, Into The FireIn terms of the global macroeconomic picture, the past two weeks have been nothing short of a firestorm. Last week, the UK government announced plans for unfunded tax cuts and additional government borrowing in the ‘mini budget’. This caused a drastic reduction in market confidence. Consequently the Pound crashed to under $1.04, historically low levels against the U.S. dollar. The volatility currently playing out in financial markets is unprecedented and akin to what we are accustomed to in the world of cryptocurrency. In order to try and stop the sell-off of the pound, yesterday the Bank of England reversed course and announced that it will engage in market operations. This will involve purchasing long-dated UK government bonds (known as gilts) in an attempt to halt the fire sale which was jeopardising major financial players such as Pension Funds. With these market operations, it is now likely that UK inflation levels will rip even higher than the eye-watering levels they are already currently at. The question now becomes, what will be the next central bank to blink and how will this continuous market chaos impact Crypto and other markets? Over the past few days, crypto and wider markets have been holding up relatively well given the state of the wider economic picture. However, with a recession looming the possibility of another leg down looks increasingly likely. In recent weeks we have seen a direct correlation between inflation levels and the price of certain cryptocurrencies. When U.S. inflation data came in on the 13th of September at 8.3%, 0.2% higher than expected, the price of Bitcoin nuked 5% in a matter of minutes. Some market forecasters assume that the Federal Reserve will eventually have to pivot and loosen up its policy, inviting in higher inflation but preserving the global financial system. However, little in the Fed’s communication so far implies that this is either likely or going to happen soon. Ultimately, either decision will have stark consequences for all financial markets, including cryptocurrency. As it stands, a market reprieve and return to an ‘up-only’ bull market seems unlikely in the foreseeable future.
OANDA:UK10YBGBP
by Coinrule
Japanese yen dips, retail sales nextThe yen has reversed directions today and is in negative territory. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.59, up 0.33%. Japan releases a data dump later today, highlighted by retail sales for August. The headline reading is expected to rise to 2.8%, following a 2.4% gain in July. It was exactly a week ago that the yen went on a spectacular roller-coaster ride, as USD/JPY traded in a 450-point range. The yen has performed poorly this year, losing about 20% of its value against the dollar. As the yen continued to slide, the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) would warn that it was concerned, but the verbal rhetoric was not backed up with action until the MoF's dramatic currency intervention last week. The MoF stepped in after USD/JPY broke 145, and the yen climbed as much as 2.5% after the intervention. Immediately, there were questions as to whether a unilateral action could stem the yen's descent. Is 145 truly a line in the sand, or will Tokyo allow the yen to continue to fall? The intervention gave the yen a brief shot in the arm, but it has been unable to consolidate these gains, for two reasons. First, the Federal Reserve is expected to remain hawkish at least into 2023, which has pushed US Treasury yields higher and widened the US/Japan rate differential. Second, the yen is caught in a tug-of-war between the MoF, which wants to see a stronger yen, and the BoJ, which is focused on maintaining an ultra-accommodative policy, which has kept JGB yields at low levels, even though this has hurt the yen. Governor Kuroda has said more than once that a weak yen is not necessarily bad, and has made clear that he will not change policy until it is clear that inflation is not transient (taking a page out of Jerome Powell's playbook). These conflicting signals have invited speculation in short positions in the yen and I would not be surprised to see dollar/yen make another attempt at breaking the 145 line shortly. 144.81 is under pressure in resistance. 146.06 is next There is support at 143.21 and 141.88
by OANDA
Taking a Long-Term Look at Treasury YieldsU.S. Treasuries have gone through a period of historic turmoil as the Federal Reserve starts shrinking its balance sheet. Today’s weekly chart considers just how dramatic the moves have been using the 10-year note’s yield index (TNX). The first thing that stands out is the accelerating rate of change since about March 2021. This chart shows ROC with a nine-week interval, which peaked above 80 percent almost five months ago. Moves like that are simply unprecedented in the six decades of TNX’s history. Of course, there are problems with viewing percentage change for an index that is itself a percentage. (After all doubling from 0.6 percent to 1.2 percent isn’t a huge feat.) So we used TradeStation’s analytics to compare the changes in net points and found they’re still unusually large. For example, TNX rose about 120 basis points in the last nine weeks. Aside from the spike in April and May of this year, that was the biggest increase since August 2003. Before that surge, you have to look to the 1980s, when yields were twice as high. The second interesting pattern is highlighted by our Price Streak custom script, which shows TNX has risen for nine consecutive weeks. That is the longest unbroken upward move since 2004. (The only longer runs occurred in 1968 and 1972-1973.) Finally, consider the simple price level. TNX hit 3.992 yesterday, just 2 basis points from its peaks in both 2009 and 2010. While yields may continue higher over the longer-term, will traders look for consolidation at this historic resistance level? TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation
EUR/USD falls to new 20-year lowThe euro is in negative territory today, after posting six straight days of losses. EUR/USD is trading at 0.9553 in Europe, down 0.41%. September can't end fast enough for the euro, which has declined a massive 4.8% against the dollar. Earlier today, EUR/USD fell to 0.9536, its lowest level since June 2002. With the war in Ukraine escalating and Nord Stream reporting that its pipeline was deliberately damaged, it's hard to be optimistic about the euro's outlook. The sham referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine have ended and predictably, the vote to join Russia was close to 100%. Moscow is expected to declare on Friday that the territories are being annexed to the Russian Federation, sparking fears that Russia could resort to nuclear weapons to defend what it claims is Russian territory. There was a further escalation in the Ukraine war last week, as explosions at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines are suspected to have been sabotaged. Nord Stream 2 has been shelved and Nord Stream 1 has been shut down for weeks, and any faint hopes that Russia might renew gas exports through Nord Stream have been dashed. European natural gas prices have jumped in response to the news. The US dollar continues to rally, and 10-year Treasury yields pushed above 4.00% earlier today, for the first time since 2008. The markets are showing a healthy respect for Fed hawkishness, even after inflation weakened in the past two inflation reports. There is some optimism that the current rate-tightening cycle is reaching its end, with Fed member Evans stating that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of tightening at some point. For now, the US dollar has momentum, driven by an aggressive Fed and weak risk appetite. EUR/USD is testing support at 0.9554. Next, there is support at 0.9419 There is resistance at 0.9640 and 0.9711
by OANDA
SPDR S&P 500 ETF - Short PositionWhen looking at SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST current underlying value and most recent price behaviour when using a 2-hour range, investors can see a confirmed break out. The point in which the selloff crossed the $408 price point, a rejection of bullish momentum. A candle-close confirmation consolidation occurs around the $398 price point before further bareish momentum. Underlying price movements of SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST witnessed a loss of its initial gains in this instance, the confirmed break out shows bareish correction after a failed attempt to keep underlying stock prices higher. When observing 50 and 100 day ranged EMA averages investors can see that on the 15/09/22 shorter 50-day EMA moving average crossed beneath the longer 100-day EMA moving average. This dead cross was followed by a strong down trend, underlying prices falling 1.7%. This was after bullish rallies that were witnessed since 19/07/22 when shorter 50-day EMA moving average crossed above longer 100-day EMA moving average. This fresh bullish crossover was followed by a rally that saw the underlying share value to increase over 12%. On 23/08/22 the EMA dead cross saw a sell off over 5%. The fresh bullish cross witnessed on 12/09/22 was soon rejected on 15/09/22. This dead cross saw a sell off over 1.7%. Currently EMA moving average lines are not moving back towards one another, instead they are moving parallel in a different trajectory. Inside bars highlight bareish momentum. This was after the rejection of bullish momentum. Therefore, this bareish down trend is more likely to continue. Based on EMA moving averages and candlestick patterns and behaviour we are bareish in sentiment. We anticipate that the stock will fall further and have taken a short position as a result.
AMEX:SPYShort
by vf_investment
3
BOE delivers 50bp hike, sterling steadyAs expected, the Bank of England hiked interest rates by 0.50%, bringing the cash rate to 2.25%. There was an outside chance that the BoE would press the rate pedal to the floor and deliver a 0.75% increase, but in the end, members decided unanimously on a less aggressive hike. The central bank is grappling with 9.9% inflation and a falling British pound, which means that more large hikes are likely coming. The British pound has edged higher and is trading at 1.1287. With the rate decision out of the way, the markets will focus on UK releases, which are expected to be soft. Later today, GfK Consumer Confidence, which has been in a deep freeze, is projected to tick up to -42, up from -44. The week wraps up with Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Friday. Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 47.5, up from 47.3, while Services PMI is projected to slow to 50.0, down from 50.9. The Federal Reserve delivered a third straight hike of 0.75% on Wednesday, raising the benchmark rate to 3.25%. This was largely expected, although there was a possibility that the hawkish Fed might raise rates by a full point. The Fed's decision was a "hawkish 0.75% hike", which gave the US dollar a significant boost, as GBP/USD plunged 1.01% on Wednesday and closed below the 1.13 line. The Fed sent a clear message that it plans to remain aggressive, as inflation has proven much more persistent than anticipated. August inflation fell from 8.5% to 8.3%, but this was higher than the forecast of 8.1% and only reinforced the Fed's hawkish stance. Fed Chair Powell left the door wide open for yet another 0.75% increase in November, and unless inflation shows a dramatic drop, December is likely to bring a hike of 0.50% or 0.75%. With the benchmark rate now above the neutral rate of 2.50%, additional hikes will likely lead to a recession, but this is a price the Fed is willing to pay in order to curb red-hot inflation. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1269. Next, there is resistance at 1.1384 There is support at 1.1144 and 1.1061
by OANDA
Fed decisions boost the USD trendThe Fed raised its funds rate by 75 basis point to a target range of 3.00% - 3.25%, its highest since 2008. DXY remains bullish, even technically, supported by a rising trendline, 20 and 50 SMA on D1. Even if the RSI starts showing overbought signal with bearish divergence, and Bollinger bands upper limit reached, it isn't in this case a sell signal: strong momentum brings traders into this trap. Wait for RSI to cross below the 14 SMA as described on the chart to start looking for a correction. Measuring the corrections shows us strength recently in the momentum ( smaller corrective waves ). Measuring the impulsive wave shows us that the uptrend hasn't reached yet it's logical goal. With the good news on the USD, the index can reach the 114 level. Goodluck, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by joe-abdallah
KIWI ON SALE!Like I previously mentioned in my other published idea title BOLD GOLD, because of the hawkish fed and raising inflation The USD is stronger than most if not all G7 currencies. As a result commodities & commodity currencies across the board is selling off such as the NZD & AUD, they may be the weakest currencies crossed w the USD. Last week I sold this pair at 0.61875 and took profit at 0.59986 a -3.05% move (-189 pips).This week I reopened a sell position w some of the profits from the trade I closed out last week at 0.60697 and at the present moment market is down -1.24% (-75 pips). My current take profit is 0.58793 ( -190 pips) but the market can definitely pull lower if the USD strength persist as I suspect it will, at least until the next rate decision on the 22nd of this month. If or when NZDUSD breaks & close below the 4 month trend line found on the D1 I can definitely see this pair heading towards 0.57000 a -4.8% (-287 pips) move from market current price. Lastly, in less than 1 hour the USD PPI YOY & PPI ex Food & Energy numbers will be released , the consensus is 8.8% & 7.1% respectively, a surprise higher than a expected number could fuel another USD rally, a lower than expected number can cause a temporary retest. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Short
by xavierNF
4
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. For this FOMC KOG Report we’re going to reference the KOG Report shared on Sunday where we said we would be looking for some form of relief rally in Gold. We suggested earlier in the month that we could potentially see this rally happening at some point during the last week of September, so for that reason we will be looking at the lower levels to go long. We have targets below which we would like to see completed before the move to the upside, what we want to see though is how the price reacts to these levels and where it creates its base. Our daily is already showing some bullish signs, however, the weekly is suggesting some more movement down is possible. A lot of traders will be sitting long here at the 200MA so a sweep of liquidity on the lows is very possible. For the reasons above, we’ll again be looking at the extreme levels to take entries with a plan to take this up towards the 1700+ price regions. Illustrated on the chart are the key support and resistance levels we feel they can tap into before swinging the move in the opposite direction! The first level we’re looking at is just below the 1650 psychological level where if we see a strong support we feel there will be an opportunity to take the long trade back up towards the 1680-95 price points. We’re going to keep it simple for this report as our plans are on the KOG reports and nothing has really changed, apart from the ranging price action that we’re witnessing pre-event. Its also possible that the market has priced in this release, in which case we will continue as we are. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16