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CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET CAP MAKING MOVES!Good evening all! The total market cap is currently ranging even though it has had a large bearish candle on the 4 hourly charts. I cannot predict the market however, I can put a few psychological indicators together and estimate the most likely event to follow. The most recent move can be seen as a breakout of a bearish flag formation. we are still in a range however, this pattern sets a target that will see the price breakout of this consolidation area if the bears are able to stay in power. Range explained: The support and resistance levels are placed using the fib retracement on the daily chart, these levels happen to be the strongest levels of support/resistance (50% and 68.2%) thus any move below/above would most likely result in a continuation/reversal. My opinion leans towards the bears as the overall market is bearish and my indicators show strength in the bears. The 972B price had been tested a couple of times and has been solidified as a strong level of support\resistance to break in the future, as it added confluence in the strength of the bears. This Level is to be carefully watched on the way back up. If the market had to remain healthy after this dramatic decline in a short period, I would like to see a retracement up to the 944-942B price in order to have more confidence in the flag breakout as well as a prosperous decline to the potential target which lies at 867B . The 944-942B level acts as a strong middle point in the consolidation range and thus will make a great reflection point before the price continues downwards. Thank you for your much-valued time! Please feel free to give me your opinion and like the article if you found it interesting. @TradingView
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Crisp_Flow
Unemployment is inevitable according to market history.Graph of the inflation rate with unemployment rate laid over top. EVERY TIME that inflation has peaked and rolled over, unemployment has spiked shortly after. If you wonder why Powell says things like "The labor market is unsustainable." it's because he and every central banker in the world (more or less) are trying to kill inflation. Inflation dies, it takes out employment. So the next time someone points to labor statistics as a sign of economic health, you can tell them that employment is transitory.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by stockpreacherman
1
As policies continue to diverge…For readers who have been following us right from our first ever TradingView idea, you’ll recall our first ever trade idea on long USDCNH. It’s been a fun 5 months writing and sharing our thoughts with the community. Much has happened since April, but two critical things stayed the same. The US Federal Reserve remains hawkish, raising rates, while the PBoC remains dovish, continuing with its easing stance. The result? USDCNH trading beyond the 6.9 level, surpassing both our target levels. With the next Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we think it’s time to review this idea again. The CME FedWatch Tool allows us to gauge what market participants are expecting the Fed to do. The prevalent consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to raise rates till the end of the year before holding rates at the 3.75 – 4.00 % level for the next year. On the other hand, the PBoC has continued to ease, cutting reserve requirement ratios & lowering its medium-term lending facility. With China still battling Covid via lockdowns, persistently low inflation numbers, and weak economic numbers, we see further easing on the cards from PBoC. Looking at the charts, the USDCNH pair has just completed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. After breaking out to the upside and a brief pull-back, prices continued upwards with strong momentum. Using classical charting techniques, the target levels for the breakout can be set to the distance of the high and low of the symmetrical triangle and applied to the top of the triangle. With the target price of 7.1180, there is still upside for this trade. It seems that policy divergence will remain for these two major economies, which is likely to strengthen the USD and weaken the CNH further, driving up the USDCNH pair. Using technical to identify target levels where we will be comfortable, we think that there is room for more upside. Entry at 6.9500, stop at 6.8545. Target at 7.1180. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
9
FED Pivot?This chart suggest a FED pivot arriving much sooner than some may suspect. Compared to 2016 - 2019, the fast & big drop that usually follows a euphoric peak, came much quicker for this year. Given how much money printing went on during the pandemic, it's worth considering that this might be simply the first and second Elliott Waves for commodities, but there will be big corrections along the way, and since inflation is the rate of rising prices, not the price change itself, it would not be surprising for the FED to declare victory sooner than later. As for the fact that recessions often coincided with rates dropping, today is not comparable because the FED only started raising rates recently. It is arguable that the FED actually raised rates roughly around the right time, not "too late" as some would argue.
AMEX:DBCShort
by Indotermes
SPY will bottom before FED ends rate hikes:see contrarian viewLast August 27 I already gave the bearish scenario wherein the FED continues even into a recession. The downsides were 350, 320 & 280 IF SPY breaks below 400 & 380. Today, Friday, SPY seems to be doing an oversold bounce. So let us assume the contrarian role against the market’s extreme pessimism. What if the market sentiment changes & the market suddenly realizes that the FED is just pretending to be very hawkish just to kill that big rally from June bottom of 362? From June low, SPY rallied a little more than 61.8% Fibonacci to be stopped by the ma200 at 431. From there it reversed down exactly to Fib 0.618 at 3900. This bullish view will take into account certain things: *The duty of the FED is not only price stability & full employment but also to fund the government. Rising interest rates will blow up the govt debt. *Inflation has gone down in commodities like gasoline, food, durable goods. Rents & wages are more sticky. Fuel prices will go down if Iran deal push through or if Saudi agrees to increase production. The US, unlike EU, has enough supply of natural gas. *A FED pause is still possible in 4Q2022 or early 2023 if inflation & the economy really slows down due to demand destruction, earnings recession, lay-offs & rising unemployment. FED may keep rates steady for a while & then continues with less hawkish hikes. If rate hike is overdone, rate cuts & QE will return quickly to save jobs, the economy & control government debt. *This may be enough for sentiment to change & for buyers to come in pushing this rebound even higher. Let us just assume that the June low of 362 is already the bottom & SPY is doing an ABC wave up. Using Fib extensions, the possible levels are 460, 476 (double top), 500 & 530. Volatility will remain high with recession fears & geopolitical uncertainties not going away soon. See the wedge down & the wedge up. FADING THE FED IS TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE but fundamentally less probable. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPYLong
by xtremerider8
The Only Chart That Matters for The Next DecadeConsumer Price Index Year over Year (CPI YOY) vs 2 Year Yield (2YY) vs Fed Funds. To even begin to arrest inflation, the Fed has to get Fed Funds above the 2YY. To break the back of inflation, the Fed must get Fed Funds above CPI YOY. Does the most recent drop in CPI YOY mean that peak inflation is already in? People forget that when inflation runs hot, so does its volatility. For lasting inflation reduction, the Fed has to get to the real neutral rate. And consider that the CPI formula you are seeing in this chart has been altered numerous times, proponents would say to better reflect productivity gains, critics would say to mask real inflation to benefit the government. Whatever you believe, if we calculated CPI the way we did in 1980 it would be nearing 18% . So it's much, much worse than this. This is the only chart that matters for the next decade.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by UnknownUnicorn1334230
Euro rebounds after sharp losses, NFP nextThe euro is in positive territory today after taking a nasty spill on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 0.9984, up 0.40%. Thursday was a day to file away and move on for the euro, as EUR/USD tumbled 1.07%. The euro is under pressure from a high-flying US dollar and is having trouble staying above the symbolic parity line. A combination of solid US numbers, weak eurozone data and lower risk sentiment sent the euro sharply lower. German Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.1, down from 49.3 in July. This marked a second straight contraction, and was the lowest level since May 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic. It was a similar story for the eurozone Manufacturing PMI, which dropped from 49.8 to 49.6, a 26-month low. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle with supply chain disruptions and a shortage of workers, and high inflation and an uncertain economic outlook are only exacerbating matters. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.8, showing modest expansion. The labour market remains strong, with initial jobless claims dropping to 232 thousand, down from 237 thousand a week earlier and much better than the consensus of 248 thousand. Adding to the euro's woes is the uncertainty over European energy supplies from Russia. Russia has shut down Nord Stream 1 pipeline for three days for maintenance, but Germany has charged that the shutdown is politically motivated and that the pipeline is "fully operational". Nord Stream is supposed to come back online on Saturday. Even if Moscow does restore service, this episode is a reminder of Europe's energy dependence on an unreliable Russia. Germany has greatly reduced its dependence on Russian gas, from 55% in February to just 26%, but a cutoff from Moscow would result in a shortage this winter. The week wraps up with the August nonfarm payrolls report. The consensus is for a strong gain of 300 thousand, after the unexpected massive gain of 528 thousand in July. The report could well be a market-mover for the US dollar. The markets are finally listening to the Fed's hawkish message, and a strong reading will raise expectations of a 0.75% hike in September and likely push the dollar higher. Conversely, a weak report would complicate the Fed's plans and raise the likelihood of a 0.50% hike, which could result in the dollar losing ground after the NFP release. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 0.9985. Above, there is resistance at 1.0068 There is support at 0.9880 and 0.9797
by OANDA
EURUSD in the BOX !Hi dear friends; According to the two falling equal lags that you can see in the chart left side (two-piece spike), now I think we are in the trading range of the market cycle after the descending channel. On the other hand, we can see the price second encounter to the top of the trading range also, it seems that the double top has been forming, and the price can fall to the lowest part of the box. I will be waiting for the confirmation of this double top in different time frames. The news from the Federal Reserve indicates an increase in interest rates also. I think that the Euro will lose resistance soon! Cordial regards.
Short
by ali5adeghi
HPQ: Charts dnt lie?!HP Inc Intraday - We look to Buy at 28.99 (stop at 26.49) Short term momentum is bearish. Price action continues to gravitate towards crucial support levels with aggressive selling interest. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 35.19 and 38.00 Resistance: 36.00 / 41.00 / 46.00 Support: 27.00 / 23.00 / 15.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:HPQLong
by VantageMarkets
Another Dip in the Market. What's the Silver Lining for Crypto?With inflation's end nowhere near in sight, the Federal Reserve this week announced more "tough times" ahead - indicating that they're likely to do more interest hikes for the rest of 2022. Inflation rates in the US right now sits around %8-10 - but since CPI reports exclude food and energy prices by design, the "real" inflation rate is likely a lot higher. Most people see the prices of food and gas rising in their own lives and are probably feeling more than what the "official" numbers say, at least. A lot have been said about what this means for the economy as a whole, but if you're a crypto investor the things to recognize are: - This is the first time in history that the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates during a recession - normally you lower rates as the economy dips to give it a boost, but the Feds have no room to do that since the rate was already at 0 for most of the last decade. The problem is much more severe than it is typically reported, especially in the wake of the COVID lockdown procedures that we have yet to experience the full effects of, yet. Some are predicting a market correction as high as 50-60% in stocks, 30-40% in real-estate. We don't know if it's going to go that high but there's no reason to think that it's going to improve, at this point. ("Brace for impact", as many have been warning for a while - it's finally coming.) - Increases in interest rates generally means borrowing is more expensive, which is likely going to slow down startup investments in the Web3 space, too. Crypto projects, VC/VC firms, and "thought leaders" in the space as we know now are likely to disappear in the next few years as access to cheap money dries out. - Crypto projects that have been heavily reliant on marketing to keep their prices up will likely tank with the fiat markets, because of its increased overlap with the mainstream economy. Even Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, etc. may be in trouble since their notoriety may turn sour when the fiat markets tumbles further. (Being well-known is not an asset in this case, in other words.) - Currently the most popular crypto coins have no means of reacting to inflation rates (except for Ethereum, which will begin its staking services after the "merge" in September, in theory), so they may struggle to justify convincing people to HODL while the banks start to offer higher interest rates for savings accounts overall. Staking coins like Tezos , Algorand (ALGO), Cosmos(ATOM), are in better position to take advantage of these trends since they are, at least for now, outperforming the banks by a very large margin. - When the economy as a whole starts to get unstable the common wisdom is that money will flow into the USD. We don't know if that will happen this time - especially with the USD's credit rating outlooks having deemed "negative" by international agencies since 2013. We know that generally speaking, interest in crypto assets tends to increase in countries where its fiat currencies are less stable - but that often requires a breaking point in which the population loses faith in the banking system as a whole. Are we at that point, yet? - For crypto prices to stay stable, all it needs is about 1% of existing fiat money to maintain its current price. (The general economy is about a 100x bigger than the crypto economy as a whole right now.) But it's allocation, per coin, is not likely to stay even. Crypto will bottom out with the fiat economies, but only a select few coins are likely to make a comeback during the recovery process. Many crypto investors are banking (literally) on the general public losing faith in the fiat system as the market dips further, which will make crypto investments look more appealing. The most obvious "utility" for crypto right now is staking rewards - which are objectively outperforming the banks right now, but the bear market will also be a period for altcoins working on providing real value to its users to come out ahead. It's going to be a wild ride either way - good luck, folks. 🤞
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
16
TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP LOOKING BEARISH!The market is currently on route to levels lower in the following days to come. This statement will be justified in the paragraphs that follow. Flag break: The market was trending in a bearish flag formation starting on the 18th of June and has recently broken out on the 19th of August. The breakout target levels for this flag formation puts the total market cap at prices as low as $618b, however there are a few strong levels of support that will prevent a sudden drop in price which will result in a hopeful healthy decline in price. It could be argued that the $765b support could be a bottom for this move as there should be a huge buy back at these levels as it does pose as a strong support, being the intraday low of the flag formation. EMA: Following the break from the flag formation, the price has fallen below the 100 Ema again, after peaking above briefly. This adds additional confluence for the bears to continue strong. Looking back at the previous brief break above the 100 EMA followed by a sudden break under, the current price seems to be playing out similarly to the past move. The following attachment is the example of the similarities of the current price movement. RSI: The RSI is looking slightly oversold however still has some way to go in relation to the previous bottoms at 21.74. This indicator strengthens my predictions on a potential consolidation area in order to build up for another bearish move. My opinion over a consolidation area will be discussed below. Support, Resistances & Fib: The price has broken below a previously strong level of support at $960b, therefore it could be argued that the price will consolidate below this level to recreate the support as a prominent resistance. This level of now resistance is also a 50% fib retracement level further strengthening is position as a key level of support and resistance in the future. The red circle displays the break from the key support: The 61.8% - 65% level is approaching and should hold the price up for some time. It could be argued that the price has fallen into a consolidation area between $972b and $911b. This potential consolidation area would further create health in the price action by making sure the market does not overextend, however due to the current news regarding inflation reduction by the fed could result in the price falling straight through these levels due to massive sellouts however this is all speculative at the moment. I shall be looking into the matter which will be discussed in an article that follows. Feel free to give me your most honest opinion on the current market. Thank you
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by Crisp_Flow
Bitcoin In a Sucker's Rallyhello frends its ur pal coinholio and i have an opinion abou the marked my thinkings is that the bit coin is not at a good price. too much people think that fed will pivot at the first sign of a down turn and we will get qe to maek price again. me no thinks that will happen sooner enough until market is alredy worse than it be right now. there is a rally in stocks that bitcoin follow right now because some peeps think we can land softly, but i think we will land on our bungholes, let me explain the reason why: fed pause is not fed stimmy if internet rates make a rise, the fed will stop making them go. but fed will not give stimmy until everyone gets fired and we are balls deep in a recession. me thinks not only the soft landing narrative is false, it will break down in the next few months and bitty will be mad. recession will come sooner at the end of the year and stimmy in mid to late 2023. the numbers of peoples with job is still very high but its one of the only raisins that we arent in official recessino, spy lags behind, but bitty will follow spy price action and get crushed to oblivion in a recession. people is buying less stuffs, less stuffs is being producted, there is less supply, less demand, less of the real wagerinos. we is at the cusp of recession and its coming sooner than u think. my source is a forest rat, i met him in a forest and his name is benjamin and he told me that things are looking bad and i should move into the forest with him. then we discusted the market and he said he sold his house a few months ago. some people use like, leading and coincidence indicators to make decides about this but woodland creatures i thin can tell a more accurate story about whas gonna happen. im gonna not post much cuz they dont have internet in the forest but i put a lot of money into james bond and took him into the forest cuz apparently he does goodly during slowing economix gross. thank you for watching if u like my video please smash that like button and subscribe to my channel and dont forget to enable the notifications so i can tell u which berries are safe to eat and which ones give u the runs
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by coinhoIio
S&P 500: Daily outlookS&P 500 forming a bearish Gartley pattern that I found out in Daily chart, what we could to see a bearish movement to the previously lower like 3600 pts. Also, remember that this occur what happen what the FED could to hike interest rate right now in September put the global financial market in worst situation of the bear market. And also tightening the America monetary policy. Talking about technical analysis, we see that S&P 500 forming a higher low in 3 occasion that maybe, I thinking that stock market could to be a possible market crash what FED do, and also cooling down the inflation rate But now, S&P 500 show us that stock market could to be weak during the next days, and also very correlated with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to short this assets. I hope that this idea support you!!!
SP:SPXShort
by harisonhbn9718
SPX500/ES1 - Watch Out for the Jackson HoleLast week saw SPX and Nasdaq's bear market rally finally clip into April and May highs before the week finished notedly, albeit not too terrifyingly, lower. All along the way, none of the Twitterati or the media cartel has so much as issued a peep about the Federal Reserve's critical Jackson Hole meeting lying in wait at the end of August. Notably, two of the three Jackson Hole days land on the Thursday and Friday trading days. Much of the rally was predicated on there being no FOMC this month, which would in theory mean no rate hikes until September. However, with how things have been set up, what do you suppose is going to happen in both the lead up to and during Jackson Hole? Perhaps what the market endures at Jackson Hole is something like an "unforseen" and "Black Swan" 200 bps rate hike that shocks the markets and sends them in an astonishingly quick descent below the June lows. Then, everything depends on whether September's FOMC is stimulus and QE again. October could be a critical starting point for a "return to normal" bubble rally or a Bump and Run Reversal. Either way, the expectation that there's more moon ahead after a 8+ week bear market rally is really not very realistic, or very intelligent. After days of buying, it's time for some selling, because that is how volume is generated. And for SPX, that means numbers that sound like 40xx and 39xx are likely on their way. Consider that SPX used to trade in parallel with BTC. On Friday and through the weekend, BTC and Ethereum suffered a 20%+ wipe out and are about to endure more. SPX and Nasdaq are lagging behind in that pattern, and although they won't lose 20% overnight like crypto does, 100-150 point down days on SPX are big losses if you're holding a fat bag of SPY and QQQ. What to do? You can buy the dip, aiming for a "return to normal" at 4400-4800. But what if this is the quiet fulcrum moment that things have gone from rally to doom and you're catching knives? It's an easy way to incur massive losses and wipe out the gains from the previous run if you were long. Be careful. This is the most dangerous time in history. The Federal Reserve, which the Chinese Communist Party has been subverting since at least 2013 , will say and do anything to manipulate the global markets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
Greenback slows down for next Fed rate decisionEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 US and Germany have recorded minor contractions in their respective economies at 0.6 and 0.1% respectively, with optimistic projections expecting growth to reappear in the short term. The greenback retreated slightly against other major currencies, EUR/USD slightly moved up to 0.9974, and the British Pound closed at 1.1829 with minor gains. The Chinese government has promised more stimulus packages to boost its economy, sending AUD/USD to 0.698 with minor oscillations. Although the US bond yield curve is still inverted, investors anticipated another rate hike from the Federal Reserve in September, USD/CAD then closed at 1.2924 and recovered to 1.2953. Gold futures took up the role of an inflation hedge, increasing to $1,778.2 an ounce, only to fall to $1,771.4 afterward. As the final draft of the nuclear deal is ready, awaiting Iran’s confirmation, the possible daily injection of 1 million barrels of crude oil into the market once again saw WTI oil futures dropping to 92.52 and stabilizing at 93.00. Later today, the US Core PCE Price Index and a speech from the Fed’s Chairman Jay Powell could prove to be insightful, but they are unlikely to confirm market bets of a 50 or 75 bps rate hike next month. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
ALERT - Top and DropTraders, Is This One Key Indicator Telling Us That it is Time to Buy Again? For the last few weeks, you’ve heard me sus out my thoughts on the dollar potentially double-topping and then dropping. Heh, top and drop. Should be a song title. Anywho, a double-top is precisely what the dollar has done thus far. Is this signaling to the markets that it is finally time to buy or will the fed continue to tighten the noose on the markets? I think you all know where my bets lie. And thus, I thought it worthwhile to put out a quick post here regarding the topic. If you’ve watched any of my videos, you’ve all seen this chart before. The RED highlighted area is, of course, my anticipated price action for the dollar, which is currently a key and leading indicator for the markets along with the VIX (fear index). When the dollar drops (becomes weaker), this weakness is often added to the market growth and appears as strength. Essentially, it is simply the market’s attempt to factor in inflation. Strength in the dollar often negatively impacts the market and denotes deflationary pressures, in this case, coming from the fed. The VIX has been dropping since mid-June. And now, I expect the dollar may follow suit. If so, we may have a huge buy signal flashing in front of our eyes. Let’s watch this closely and trade accordingly. Best to you all! Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
Market split bets on the next Fed rate hikeEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI ▶️ There is a month between now and the next US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the investors are undecided about how high it would be. Given the falling gas prices, strong labor market, and the looming recession, the US central bank could favor a 50 bps rate hike. On the other hand, the latest comments from Fed officials maintained they are adamant about controlling inflation to 2%, hinting at another 75 bps rate hike. As a result, the greenback extends its strong run against its peers. EUR/USD slid to 1.0034, and despite having slightly optimistic retail sales readings, GBP/USD stabilized at 1.1820 and closed at 1.1827. The Aussie was held back by a sluggish Chinese economy, AUD/USD went below 0.7000 to 0.6872, while USD/CAD climbed to 1.2993 and edged towards 1.3000. With another rate hike marked on the calendar, gold’s safe haven status was overshadowed by the US dollar, gold futures declined to $1,762.9 an ounce. Oil prices were stuck between prospects of Iranian oil entering the market and a possible recession, which ended up closing at $90.44 with little change. In US stocks, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) enjoyed a rapid rise that reached meme status, but it just lost 40.54% of its market cap, after a major shareholder sold his entire stake. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official