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Will the Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Be Good or Bad for Crypto?It's probably going to be a tough market in the short term, but the interest rate hikes of 22' is exactly what the economy needs right now. Reducing access to cheap loans should curb the frenzied markets, at least somewhat. (Though given how low the rates are projected to be, probably not enough.) What does this mean for crypto? Well, that's the big question everyone is asking now. They said that Evergrande and cryptocurrency would go down together, but that didn't turn out to be the case. Will the same happen to USD? In a way, 22' is going to be a big test for how resilient the USD really is. Politics has been warping the numbers lately but inflation is the lie detector that will reveal the truth about the US economy. American Exceptionalism? Or will it follow the same pattern China did? Time will tell. (If you're a crypto supporter like me, you're hoping for the latter, of course.)
Long
by RyanTanaka
S&P 500 Has a Lot More Room to Grow, Too Early for a Recession.If you look at the S&P500 index ( TVC:SPX ) chart, you find that it has reached, and even surpassed, the previous high at 3393.5 which occurred just before the CV19 drop in March 2020. The last close on 31 December 2020 was at 3760. However, many attribute the recent V-shaped recovery to the Quantitative Easing scheme by the Federal Reserve, which makes a lot of sense. Printing money accelerates inflation and raises the prices of everything including stocks. If you haven't yet, look at the M2 Money Supply ( FRED:M2 ) (chart below) to get a feel for the scale of the increase in money supply during 2020 relative to the past 20 years. Below is the chart of SPX for the past 20 years. Below is the chart of M2 money supply for the past 20 years. Notice the jump in the last year. This analysis looks instead at the chart of SPX divided by M2 . That gives us an inflation-adjusted look at SPX. We notice that the index has not yet achieved the V-shaped recovery. It is 2/3 of the way there. What's more, even the Feb 2020 high is not higher than the 2007 high that was just before the house mortgage crisis, and the latter is not higher than the dot-com bubble high in 2000. This simply means that making money through the S&P500 is not really making money, not really increasing the value of your holdings, but it is rather a mere hedge against inflation; and a failed hedge at that. It hasn't even achieved previous highs. With all that being said, I do not believe that the March 2020 correction was anything to be scared of. I think we will achieve the high that occurred just before that drop. I say do not fear a major correction, let alone a recession, before we reach the top of the parallel channel as the arc arrow indicates. And keep your eyes only on the inflation-adjusted chart of SPX.
SP:SPXLong
by TechNerdOmar
4
Gold to $1675?Markets have priced in a March hike for some time, which takes the sting out of this form of tightening, and which could create the set-up for a 'sell-the-news' recovery in risk assets. But, more importantly, participants have begun to question whether the strike on the Fed's put is further from the market, in a regime where the central bank is battling inflation and specifically combating a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. In this context, we think it's unlikely that the Fed will pivot from their plan to start hiking rates as soon as March and start quantitative tightening soon after. However, evidence that quantitative tightening might be more impactful for asset prices suggests that the Fed could still eventually use this policy tool to manage the strike on its put — without necessarily causing undue harm to its primary objective of keeping inflation expectations bounded. For precious metals, this signals few immediate avenues for relief as the complex struggles to attract capital in the face of a hawkish Fed. The evidence continues to overwhelmingly point to Chinese purchases as the single largest source of inflows in past weeks, which are vulnerable with Lunar New Year around the corner. CTA trend followers are set to liquidate some gold length should prices break below $1810/oz. ©TDS CTA Tracker The liquidation occurred, then we're now left with very little structure below to bounce from. Because of that, I am looking to whether the trend followers push for the Sell Stops below $1675 to grab some liquidity and buy into that capitulation
TVC:GOLD
by TH_Analysis
2
BITCOIN , BTCUSDT 1DBitcoin ♻️ Bitcoin jumped up after the support test of 32900 and was able to move up to 38500 But this does not seem to be the end of the downtrend, and the pullback to the lost level was probably $ 39000- 40000$ , According to the ABC model, which was analyzed 4 days ago, the level of 29000-30000$ not been tested yet and the cycle has not been completed⚠️ Bitcoin needs at least a few strong 4-hour candlesticks with a high volume, over 40000$ , to climb and end the correction and downtrend. But tonight, after the Federal Reserve meeting and the release of economic statistics and a statement on digital currencies, we can better understand the market decision and trends ❗️ ➖➖➖➖➖➖ ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️ 👤 Saeid.Mahbob 📅 01.26.2022
by SaeidMahbob
4
False Breakdown in the S&P 500?Early this year, we covered the false breakout in the S&P 500. Now the opposite may have taken place: a false breakdown. Notice how prices dipped yesterday to their lowest level since mid-June. They blitzed through support from early October and July, before reversing to close slightly positive. That kind of testing below support, followed by a quick rebound back above it, is a potential sign of the bears retreating for now. How to explain the recent violent selloff? Worries about the Federal Reserve are clearly one issue, but another factor could be the concentrated news cycle. After all, investors had to cope with Fed meetings in both December and January – without many any break from corporate earnings. Throw in a few million omicron cases and tensions over Ukraine, and you had a depressing environment emotionally. But how long will the gloomy winds blow? Jerome Powell speaks his piece tomorrow afternoon and exits stage left. Then comes Elon Musk and then Tim Cook , followed by Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerberg next week. We also hear from Satya Nadella this evening. That flood of earnings (about half the S&P by the end of next week) could dispel the recent bleakness. Still, SPX has broken the trendline beginning in October 2020. It also took out the 200-day simple moving average . The result could be a period of consolidation as the Fed begins its hawkish work. Traders may watch the early-December lows around 4500 as the next important resistance and prepare for a few months of chopping around. (Remember the first rate hike is expected in March.) TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
2
Fantom is on the way for a second Elliot Impulse Wave!! Not a Financial Advice !! FTMUSDT The last published idea is still in play. Although we overshoot over the first leg of Elliott Wave, we are coming down and preparing for the third leg. I can imagine the CPI report by fed on 12 Jan will bring us down to the buy zone. There I will add more fuel to my rocket :) I think the CPI report will be nothing burger but I expect SHF to dump the market to ride the wave of retail's uncertainty for at least half a day to a couple of days then we turn back to the upside again. I do not think we go lower than %1.5 Be careful and never invest more than you are willing to lose! That is the most important rule in investing.
FLong
by GoatOfWallStreet
10
Rising real yields are driving the stock market selloffInflation expectations (T10YIE, red line) have been on the rise since Q1 2020. Nominal yields (US10Y, turquoise line) bottomed as gold (XAUUSD, yellow line) topped in Aug 2020 after the Fed marked the end of stimulus expansion, shifting speculation to timing the eventual tightening. However, stocks (ESH2022, S&P 500 future, purple line) did not turn lower until Dec'21-Jan'22 as *real* interest rates (DFII10, orange line) started to rise. This is as the markets began to believe the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, so inflation expectations came down while nominal yields pushed upward. Higher real yields drive portfolio de-risking. Investors are able to achieve a comparatively lower risk profile given a level of expected return, so assets toward the "risk-on" side of the spectrum suffer relative to anti-risk alternatives.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by IlyaSpivak
1
Drawing Parallels from 1999-2000 Hiking Cycle During the 1998-2000 period we had a 20% correction in SP500 in the LH of 1998 followed by WTI bottoming in the low teens and 3 very fast rate cuts In the following 8 months up SP500 gained just shy of 50%, WTI gained 60% and the first 25bps rate hike come in 30th of June 1999 SP500 corrected to retest previous low, then second rate hike of 25bps come in on 24th Aug 1999 SP500 corrects again briefly trade 3% below previous low. 18th Oct 1999 will remain the low for the next 16 months ! From the first rate hike in June 1999 and the last in May 2000 (175bps) the SP500 gains 8% and WTI 160% The Market, both SP500 and WTI did not start breaking until Sep 2000 that is 14 months from the first rate hike. The parallel to today are March 2020 correction 35%, WTI bottoming in April, Rates cuts to 0.00 SP500 from Mar 2020 to Jan 2022 gains over 100%, WTI gains 300%, first rate hike in sight My conclusion is that the hiking cycle isn't going to break the market, Energy/Cost of living will be where the pay is going to come from. Lets put it that way during 1999-2000 hiking cycle the music never stopped it only slowed down it stopped 8 months later when there was no more BUYERS, I believe we will follow a similar path into 2022-2023
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ElReyChristophe
$SPX Inverse Head and ShouldersS&P500 15m TF Major Reversal Pattern confirmed with the textbook Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern printed on the 15m TF overnight in the US. Initially gapping down price almost hit the Fib Retracement 0.236 before the buying started which now has me thinking that inflation worries are now being priced into the market. Where to from here? A rally IMO would consist of a short-term consolidation (Sideways Movement) until Fed Meetings have agreed on an outcome regarding rates before a rally towards the Former Daily Support Zone which I now consider a Daily EQ (Equilibrium). A failure to break this level would likely see a retracement back towards the Fib Retracement 0.236 and a continuation towards Support. RSI on the Daily TF is indicating oversold and a momentum shift from here would most likely print Bearish weakness on MACD, which in turn may give us confluence of indication of a short/long-term Bullish rally. Alot is still unknown yet and I implore correct Risk Management and Position sizing in a time of unknown and volatility.
SP:SPX
by Trader_Johnni
SPX Technical Analysis 01/24/2022 - *Hammer Candlestick* [Daily]SPX found ground at 4231 Support. A beautiful hammer candlestick showed up on the daily chart today. A hammer candlestick indicates a potential price reversal to the upside. The price must start moving up following the hammer; this would confirm the reversal. RSI extremely oversold at 20. The Federal Reserves FOMC meeting tomorrow , and Wednesday should help provide further direction of the market. If dovish; expect a major rally. If hawkish; look out below. Updates to follow. *Trade the charts, not the noise that comes with corrections*
SP:SPX
by Cogg
US100 Institutes trapping retails for exit liquidityWe closed Friday at the local support pf 14600 and went through it like a knife through butter down to the next major support at 14400. If we do not hold that there is a high chance we dive into 14000. A Pattern that keeps repeating is that we see green candles in premarket, fooling average Joe that the dip has ended, average Joe buys in, and in the second half of the trading day institutes DUMP IT. That is, the retails SEND IT and later Institutes DUMP IT. Be very careful on green candles...false breakouts are a known tactic to attract exit liquidity. Only get in the market when it is very well clear that the tanking has ended.... hard to call but you know...
CAPITALCOM:US100
by GoatOfWallStreet
DJI WEEKLY - FIB RETRACEMENT - CORRECTION MODE - MEGAPHONEFollowing along with the MEGAPHONE theme from a previous chart taking the first touch of the MEGAPHONE TOP, as the top. Being a weekly chart, we need to see the weekly close below the RIBBON for CONFIRMATION that we are indeed heading into a period of CORRECTION. Given that the FEDERAL RESERVE will meet next week and have already stated that they will not move in to bolster the stock market I hazard a guess that the DOW will continue its current downward trend. As we all know the FED is slow to respond as that is the nature of the data cycle, they are at least 3-6 months behind real-world. We also need to keep in mind that the FED is an INFLATION fighting mode which means they will be announcing a rate rise of 25 basis points at the very least for a MARCH START, which the market has already priced in. My gut feeling is that they need to raise rates by 50 basis points to douse inflation, which the market has not priced in. We have a CHINESE NEW YEAR coming up and harsh WARNINGS FROM the WEF and DAVOS. Take care and stay safe. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
TVC:DJIShort
by alphamindset
USD/JPY dips ahead of Japanese CPIThe Japanese yen has edged higher for a second straight day. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at the 114.00 line. In economic news, Japan releases December inflation data and the BoJ will publish the minutes of its December meeting. In the US, economic releases were mixed. Unemployment claims jumped to 287 thousand, above the forecast of 220 thousand and up from the previous release of 231 thousand. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 23.2, up from 15.4 prior and above the consensus of 20.0 points. Inflation in Japan is moving higher, although at a much more modest clip than is the case in the US or UK. Core CPI, which had been hovering close to zero for months, surprised to the upside in November with a 0.5%, up from 0.1% prior. This was its highest level since February 2020. BoJ policymakers aren't losing sleep over surging inflation, but after decades of deflation, rising prices are a novelty for the central bank, as well for businesses and consumers. The BoJ has no plans to shift from its ultra-easy stance, and the bank kept policy intact at this week's policy meeting. Still, it was significant that at the meeting, the bank revised upwards its inflation forecast, which hasn't occurred since 2014.  For the fiscal year starting in April, the BoJ is projecting inflation of 1.1% up from the 0.9% gain it forecast in October. This is noteworthy because the BoJ is acknowledging that inflation could overshoot its projections, something we never saw in the years of deflation. Unlike their counterparts at the Bank of Japan, Fed policymakers are focused on surging inflation and how to contain it. A rate hike is looking increasingly likely in March, but it's unclear just how much of a push the Fed has in mind. We've seen a measured approach of 0.25% hikes for years, but with inflation running at a 40-year high, there is talk of a dramatic 0.50% hike. The Fed is clearly sensitive to market conditions, so odds are that it will avoid a huge 0.50% jump in rates. Still, unusual times may require unusual methods, so it will certainly be interesting to follow the Fed in the weeks ahead. There is resistance at 115.54, followed by 116.88 USDJPY has support at 113.18 and 112.16
by OANDA
3
Oil is climbing the stairway to Heaven. We are in an interesting world where price signals are all over the place due to the manipulation of markets by governments. With inflation driving the market it would seem realistic for oil to break out into a new high. The question is, do we have a massive market sell-off that drives many asset prices down as the acts like the 12-year-old threatening to run away from home? Do they actually do it? Is it all talk? Only time will tell but be watching for a pivot back to QE or fewer rate hikes in the future. We all know that there are elections coming up the FED is likely to be put in place in order to make things go as smoothly as possible. The purple box is a nearby resistance zone and the red line is heavy top resistance. We have been playing XLE for quite some time with incredible returns and a good dividend. Fed: " But MOM! You said we can play outside until the street lights come on!"
TVC:USOILLong
by DefyingFinance
1
Aussie rises ahead of key employment dataThe Australian dollar has reversed directions and pushed above the 72 line. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7224, up 0.54% on the day. Australia will release December employment numbers in Thursday's Asian session. The economy is expected to have created 43 thousand new jobs, which would be a modest gain compared to the monster spike of 366 thousand in November. The market is also projecting that the unemployment rate will tick lower to 4.5%, from the 4.6% beforehand.  A strong release would likely give a boost to the Australian dollar. Earlier today, Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment for January disappointed with a reading of -2.0%, marking a second straight decline. Consumers are wary that the spike in Omicron cases could trigger further lockdowns. The number of hospital cases has swelled and on Tuesday, Australia recorded 77 deaths from Covid, the highest one-day total since the pandemic began. An ANZ report last week noted that the Australian consumer is suffering from an "Omicron malaise in spending" and that could mean trouble for the Australian economy, as consumer spending is a key driver of growth. The major banks are planning to revise downward their growth forecasts and Commbank has already lowered its Q1 forecast QoQ from 2.3% to just 1.0%. In the US, there are growing concerns that the Federal Reserve will accelerate the tightening of its policy. This has been reflected in an upswing in US Treasury yields. The 10-year rate climbed above 1.80% on Tuesday, a 2-year high, and hit 1.90% earlier today, but has retreated to 1.83%. The 10-year rate hasn't been above the symbolic 2% level since July 2019 but could reach that line shortly. Most analysts are projecting three or four rate hikes in 2022, but the Fed may have more in store - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, made headlines last week when he projected the Fed could hike up to six or seven times this year. There is resistance at 0.7304 and 0.7392 AUD/USD has support at 0.7139 and 0.7062
by OANDA