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Ethereum Recovers $4K... Can it Sustain?? 🤔Ethereum got a huge lift from the FOMC statement yesterday. We rallied from lows at $3646, finding support at our level exactly. We've since regained the $4K handle, if but barely. We appear to be hanging on by a thread at support at $4020. Two red triangles on the KRI suggest resistance here. The Kovach OBV has turned sharply bullish, but is leveling off suggesting that we may be oversold at this point, due for a correction. That FOMC rally was enough to get us back to $4K, but it might not be enough to keep us there. Watch for support at $3861, then $3646 again if things turn south. If we can muster another rally, then $4258 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
What the FOMC Statement Means for BitcoinBitcoin rallied off the FOMC statement yesterday which was a first for crypto, and confirms the maturity of this product. Larger institutional investment and the influence of derivatives on the crypto market are the likely reasons for this rally, which demonstrate that macro events effecting traditional market instruments like stocks, bonds, forex, etc. are now of importance to crypto. Bitcoin rallied from lows $46.2K to just below our level at $49.7K, before a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. Currently we are ranging, establishing value in the high $48K handle. The price action should remain confined to the $40K's, with trading choppy and illiquid into the new year. The best trading strategy here seems to be to wait for lower levels and accumulate on dips. The Kovach OBV has soared with the rally, but has leveled off as BTC established value. Watch $49.7K and $50.8K to continue to provide resistance and $46.2K to provide support from below, with $45K being a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
DXY Steadies in the 96 HandleThe US dollar index soared with the FOMC statement yesterday, but has since cooled off, feeling out lower levels. We seem to have broken through a trendline connecting lows on this lower bound, but appear to have found support at 96.24, the lowest technical level in the 96 handle, and intersection of our trendline. We should have strong support from 96.24, but if we break below it watch the vacuum zone below to 95.82. With the FOMC behind us, there won't be much more data events this week to drive prices, so anticipate ranging in the 96's. We have several technical levels above, ending at 96.65, which we expect to be a ceiling for now.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
USDCAD's Bearish Reversal Now ConfirmedThe USDCAD started falling after FED's December policy decision. The reversal was elucidated by the breakdown below the ascending channel and the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.28117. The next target for the new downtrend is the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci at 1.27336, with the intermediate support level at 1.27500. The latter is underscored by the crossover between the 100-day MA (in blue) and 200-day MA (in orange). If the price action manages to close below the two, the next target for the downtrend would be the previous swing low at 1.26100.
Short
by Trendsharks
The Final Sprint (16 December 2021)Doubling the pace of QE tapering The Federal Reserve ended its final monetary policy meeting for the year with a bang. While holding interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0-0.25%, the central bank doubled the pace of quantitative easing (QE) tapering from the current $15 billion ($10 billion of Treasury securities + $5 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities) per month to $30 billion ($20 billion of Treasury securities + $10 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities) per month starting from January 2022. The decision to speed up tapering comes as the central bank felt that “the economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support”, Fed Chairman Powell explained during the press conference. He also mentioned that the recent pace of inflation is “uncomfortably high” and employment in the U.S. is making substantial progress towards the central bank’s maximum employment goal. And so, the committee felt that the time has come to progressively withdraw from the policy enacted in response to the pandemic. Hence, in March 2022, the Fed’s massive bond buying programme will come to a complete halt, opening the way for interest rate hikes. Dot plot indicates aggressive rate hikes for 2022 In the released quarterly projection materials, the dot plot shows a big shift in the dots upwards, indicating that more members are now expecting interest rate to be at a higher level for the next few years. Specifically, all 18 members of the committee expect at least one rate hike while 12 of them expect three rate hikes in 2022. Also, 11 members expected that interest rate will return to the pre-pandemic level of 1.5-1.75% in 2023, contrasting from the previous projection materials that only three members expect so. The sense of urgency for more rate hikes come as inflation has escalated to a near 40-year high level. Persistent inflation Ever since consumer prices set new highs in decades for two consecutive months, the Fed has changed its view that inflation is transitory. The central bank’s Chief is now acknowledging that inflation “may be more persistent” and is having an upward pressure on inflation expectations. It was also mentioned in the rate statement that supply and demand imbalances have led to “elevated levels of inflation”. Thus, the Fed has revised PCE inflation expectations upwards for 2022. Moving forward, we can expect the Federal Reserve to wind up its QE during the first quarter of 2022 since good progress towards its dual mandate has been made – annual inflation has more than doubled the central bank’s target for several months and the rate towards maximum employment has been fast and is expected to continue in the near future.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Divergence spotted on Bitcoin! After Feds. Daily chart!Just after the feds meeting on tuesday dec 14, i anticipated a buy the news opportunity but decided to wait untill today( dec 15). I went to the BTC/ETH daily chart and tried to spot potential buying opportunities and to my greatest amaze for the first time in my short crypto trading life i had spotted a bullish divergence on the RSI oscillator on the daily chart. After realizing that the market is coming from a recent dip and a potential bull run next year january, i am considering buying the "dollar cost averaging" style and probably waiting till the end of the week to examine the full divergence set up on all possible time frames for more accurate confirmation. Hopes these helps?
Long
by Jezzz_
SHORTING EUR/USDSHORTING EU! Brief Technical Analysis: - Bearish Flag forming on the H8/Daily TF - Nice impulse to the downside breaking past 1.13000 - Retest of the round psychological number 1.13000 - 61.8 Fib level lines up with previous stated confluences - 3rd touch of trendline on H1 timeframe Brief Fundamental Analysis on the currency pair: - ECB aren't looking to change monetary policy anytime soon - Energy crisis in Europe growing concern - Concerns over new Covid strain 'Omicron' - The FED are looking to increase their tapering pace, raise interest rates as soon as early 2022 - US Dollar seen as a safe 'haven' for investors (risk-off market = bullish for the Dollar and bearish for the Euro)
Short
by TomBray1
1
TOTAL CRYTOCURRENCY MARKET VIEWSThe TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP is found on a pretty strong support, where we have $2.153T and $1.965T as Monthly supports, and $1.963T as weekly support. The recent dump took it all the way down to the Monthly and weekly support of $1.96T, where we got a bounce pretty quick. There is a possibility that we could slowly test the $1.96T again in the few next days. A Monthly close above the $2.153T is crucial so that the bullish momentum can continue into beginning of next year 2022. But if we close a weekly/monthly below $1.96T, we will probably see the bullish momentum being delayed for a couple more months. Bear in mind that the FED decision about tapering still has to come out in the next few days, and that also can impact the markets negatively for a while, but yet to be seen. What I am seeing now, it is a accumulation phase for a few days/weeks between $2.4T and $1.9T, which can be a good opportunity to buy for the long term. My sentiment: MONTHLY -> BULLISH . WEEKLY -> BULLISH . DAILY -> BEARISH Red lines = Monthly Supp. Resist. Blue lines = Weekly Supp. Resist.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by ITS-BENG
$AAPL is nearing a climatic top, brings major risk to the marketAAPL stock is currently vertical, see way too many traders asking "should I sell my AAPL calls" or "its going to $200." - "its going to 3T market cap" reminds me of the last time it was around 2T mc and tanked. Funds buying large amounts of weekly calls always leads retail into a trap, they do this because in the interim they are planning to offload shares. Market makers are forced to hedge by buying up shares, when supply runs out and that option flow isnt there to support price through a gamma squeeze- the stock falls sharply. Retail is left holding the bag, the headlines/talking heads on cnbc sucker them in every time. Be patient, a big trade is coming. (Might be aligning with fed meeting on Wednesday.)
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by PriceActionRules
1
The Bond Marekt Awaits Inflation DataBonds have continued their slow decline trough support at 130'07 and are hovering just above 130'00. We are starting to see support form in the middle of the vacuum zone between these two levels, confirmed by two green triangles forming on the KRI. Both Kovach momentum indicators have dropped precipitously, which might indicate that we are staring to become oversold and that 130'00 is a floor for now. If we see a relief rally, watch 130'07 or 130'19 for a target. If we continue to decline and break 130'00 then 129'26 is the next target. ZN is likely not to make any significant moves until CPI data comes out this morning.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Is Gold Failing at $1,800?Gold traders have been watching the important $1,800 level for years. Now the yellow metal may be at risk of decisively breaking it. $1,800 was initially important as a peak in late 2011 after XAUUSD failed to hold $1,900. It was then retested in February and October of 2012 before gold entered a long slide toward $1,000. Prices spiked to new highs above $2,000 in August 2020 in the wake of coronavirus and the Fed’s aggressive stimulus. But they have trended lower since and made a series of lower highs. The most recent lower high of $1,877 occurred in mid-November. Another potential signal is the MACD oscillator on this weekly chart. Notice how it turned negative before other dips, like in September 2020 and April 2018. If it starts to fall with prices remaining under $1,800, that could be especially discouraging to the bulls. Next, you have a difficult macro backdrop with the Fed tapering asset purchases before potential rate hikes in 2022. Bullion also faces competitors as a store of value given the rise of cryptocurrencies. In conclusion, consider these comparisons versus October 2012: Gold is down about 1 percent. The Consumer Price Index is up 20 percent. Bitcoin is up 525,000 percent. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradeStation
1
Pound lower, retail sales reboundThe British pound is in negative territory in the Friday session. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3450, down 0.35% on the day. UK retail sales for October surprised the markets, as the gain of 0.8% m/m was the first gain in five months. Clearly good news, but the improvement could well be due to early Christmas shopping rather than a change in the mindset of consumers, who have been slow to spend since the end of the lockdown in the summer. Consumer confidence has been weak as caution is the mantra in what has been a difficult year. On an annual basis, retail sales fell by -1.6%, which follows a read of -1.1% in September. Inflation continues to accelerate as the "transient" narrative seems out of sync with what is happening on the ground. The UK consumer price index hit 4.2% y/y in October, above the consensus of 3.9%. The data will add to the pressure on the BoE to raise interest rates at the December policy meeting. The bank held rates at the November meeting, which shocked the markets, as Governor Andrew Bailey had sent strong hints that the bank would raise rates in order to contain inflation. The BoE is projecting inflation to go as high as 5% in early 2022 before falling lower in 2023. After being burned by the BoE, investors will be mindful about projecting a December rate hike, but it's clear to everyone that the bank will need to raise rates shortly - if not in December, then early in the New Year. With no tier-1 events out of the US today, the markets are focusing on President Biden's choice for Chair of the Federal Reserve, which should be announced on the weekend. Jerome Powell was considered a strong favourite until recently, but Fed member Laura Brainard could be a surprise choice. Brainard is considered more dovish than Powell and would be expected to raise rates more slowly. If Brainard wins, we could see an immediate reaction from the markets and the US dollar could lose ground. GBP/USD has support at 1.3310. Below, there is support at 1.3206 There is resistance at 1.3562 and 1.3710
by OANDA
TYX 30 Year Bond YieldWith Fed Powell having his big speech last week, I wanted to take a look at the TYX which is the 30 year treasury bond yield. Although he noted that they won't necessarily hike interest rates in the short term, he did say that he would consider doing so Q2 and above depending on job growth and GDP growth. There was also a clear warning that the Fed would pullback on some of the bond purchasing two times in November and December going into 2022. The TYX normally responds to this in a bullish manner. With the CPI reports being the highest since 1990, consumers are taking hits with having to spend more money for the same products. In the most recent months, this hasn't really mattered to the average consumer. However, if the CPI reports continue to come in higher than forecasted, I'm sure that those same consumers would start pulling back their expenditures. Now taking a look at the chart, my focus is on the Daily TF where there seems to be a bullish flag forming and or an Eve and Eve double bottom that could be in the midst of forming if consolidation persists within the next 3 months. The Mac D indicator seems as if it needs to retrace the previous high and it has already surpassed the 38% retracement level and am looking for a bullish move out of the flag to reach the 61.80% retracement. If this happens and we cross above the 200 ema (already happening on the 15 min) we could be back in the 2's at some point in the near future. What do you think? Like, follow, agree, disagree! Not advice! Just an Idea!
TVC:TYXLong
by Redimere_91
Bitcoin Short Setup! ABC elliot wave correctionFull short elliot waves setup headed to 44000 to 48000 USD is finally here!. Some many bullish comments you heard: "november 80k"...."December 120k target cause stock to flow model"... too much FOMO I presume. We strongly believe on an end cycle have been reached this time and Bitcoin needs to correct 20% - 35% at least to keep an ascendend steps like it was in the past. Some few reasons to considery it: 1- FED Tappering it's here. 2- Inflation rate on historical highs. 3- Evergrande default and some few chinese institutions with high loans and no liquidity. 4- Bitcoin market makers are watching peoples FOMO. 5- Bitcoin Bearish Rising wedge Elliot waves and chart features: 1- Logarithm chart 2- Wave A: 55500 - 58000 Wave B: 60000 - 63000 Wave C: 44000 - 48000
Short
by maugigli
7
The Road To Normalcy Begins (06 November 2021)Fed starts tapering! The long-awaited taper meeting has finally arrived! The Federal Reserve announced during their monetary policy meeting on Thursday that it will begin slowing down its net asset purchases by $15 billion per month which comprises of $10 billion Treasury bonds and $5 billion agency mortgage-backed securities. The first round of tapering will begin later this month and the second round will take place at the beginning of December. Moving forward, the monthly pace of quantitative easing (QE) tapering will be similar to these two months and may be adjusted depending on the economic outlook. Regardless of the pace, the Fed is expecting QE to end by mid-2022. The following illustration shows that under the same tapering pace, QE will end in June 2022. Nov 2021: $70b Treasury Bonds + $35b Agency MBS Dec 2021: $60b Treasury Bonds + $30b Agency MBS Jan 2022: $50b Treasury Bonds + $25b Agency MBS Feb 2022: $40b Treasury Bonds + $20b Agency MBS Mar 2022: $30b Treasury Bonds + $15b Agency MBS Apr 2022: $20b Treasury Bonds + $10b Agency MBS May 2022: $10b Treasury Bonds + $5b Agency MBS Jun 2022: End of QE A small step back on “transitory” With the recent comment made by Fed Chairman Powell that supply bottlenecks will take longer to ease, thus expecting prices to remain high for a longer period of time, the Fed has taken a small step back from its view on inflation being transitory. The previous confidence that the elevated inflation “largely reflecting transitory factors” has now been revised to “largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory”. During the press conference, Powell also clarified the definition of “transitory” that the central bank adopts after highlighting that the word has different understanding to different people. For the Fed, “if something is transitory it will not leave behind permanently – or very persistently higher – inflation”. With the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the central bank Chief is expecting inflation to continue its rise into 2022 before easing back down during mid-2022. Maximum employment still quite a distance away Although tapering of the massive $120 billion per month QE programme has begun, Powell warned that the Fed’s decision to do so does not imply a rate hike is underway. The central bank held its interest rate unchanged at the targeted range of 0-0.25% and would like to see the labour market achieve maximum employment before considering a hike. As of the October’s jobs report, the U.S. job market is still some 5 million jobs away from the pre-pandemic level. The Fed is likely going to consider a rate hike only when the jobs lost during the pandemic have been fully recovered. Even so, the central bank may wait a little longer to be certain that jobs growth is indeed consistent before committing.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
3