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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For August 9, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook It seems there is no stopping Bitcoin after the cryptocurrency surged past our psychological Mean Res $46,580 mark, which held the coin captive for four sessions from passing this barrier. Next is our target Inner Coin Rally of $50,130, coinciding with a significant $50,000 Maginot Line . Will the price of Bitcoin increase to $50,000 this weekend? See the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For August 9, 2021" page at the usual site for the rest of the market story.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TradingSig
Slowdown In U.S. Inflation Not A Game Changer (12 August 2021)Prices stagnate in July. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a continued rise in the prices of goods and services in July albeit at a slower pace while annual inflation has stagnated as expected. The key driver behind the slowdown in inflation comes from the strong deceleration in price rise of used cars and trucks (+0.2%). At the same time, prices of new vehicles (+1.7%) continued to rise at around the same pace as the previous two months. More downward pressure on oil prices as White House calls for more hikes in production. The White House called on the OPEC+ to hike oil production yesterday. In the released statement, the White House wrote that “higher gasoline costs, if left unchecked, risk harming the ongoing global recovery”, responding to the recent rise in oil prices that drove the spike in global inflation. The effect of transitory inflation is starting to play out. With the opening of the economy and the issue of supply shortage starting to tone down as supply catches up, inflation pressures coming from used vehicles will likely be toned down. Also, with the rising pressure applied on the OPEC+ to increase oil production, we may be hearing from the organization next month during their meeting on further production hike in the future. Fed likely to remain confident despite slowdown in inflation. To conclude, although the July inflation figures disappointed the market a little, translating to a weakening in the U.S. dollar, this is unlikely going to be a game changer for the Fed as annual inflation is still way above the central bank’s 2% target. As a matter of fact, the slowdown in inflation is within expectation of the central bank. Hence, the recent releases of strong jobs and inflation figures are likely going to boost the confidence of the Fed in making QE tapering announcements during the Jackson Hole Symposium.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Price Outlook of Gold for 2021-2050*** THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS *** 10Y Treasury and Gold's Price: Gold is correlated strongly (92%) with the 10Y Treasury. During 2020, during the depths of the pandemic, we saw 10Y rates under 0.5%. This was the primary catalyst for Gold to find its new ATH during August of 2020. This strong correlation makes it necessary to understand the primary drivers of Federal Reserve policy and actions. Miss-guided Inflation to Gold Correlation: Inflation is the most commonly purported catalyst behind Gold's price movements. This remains true, however the present narrative surrounding inflation (and the convoluted way QE finds its way to markets) makes it very difficult for the public to have an understanding of long-term inflationary expectations. Under the current regime, we are in much greater danger of Cyclical Deflation than any significant inflation. Hyper-inflationary rhetoric is silly and I'll not address it seriously. My assertions of inflation and deflation trends rely strongly on the Federal Reserve operating under the laws by which it's presently constituted. This is unlikely to happen in the long term. Federal Reserve Frustrations and Law Breaking/Changing: Within the next 5 years it will become painfully obvious to the Federal Reserve they're incapable of generating true inflation. Once the Fed and the Government resign to this fact, there'll be a proposal to change the Federal Reserve Acts to give the Fed more monetary freedom. The way this affects American Life is in the introduction of a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency); transforming the Fed from the Lender of last resort into the Spender of all resorts. This will be the true catalyst behind inflationary trades; shifting Gold's closest price correlation from the 10Y rate to the threat of true inflation. Powell's Fed Ending: Jerome Powell is slated for re-appointment early in 2022. I don't think he will be. It's likely the next Chairman (Chairwoman) of the Fed will probably be Lael Brainard. In this case, my above statements are hastened and magnified. Federal Reserve (Monetary Policy Trajectory): The Federal Reserve remains hawkish in the short term. This means short term 10Y rates are unlikely to rise to or above 2% for the next few years. As stated above, under present forces, low rates are bullish for the price of Gold but since rates are already tightly approaching 2% the buy signal for gold will remain neutral until 2023. I don't think Gold make any significant moves, but it will likely maintain its present price with a +/-10% around the 200 day moving average. Price Prediction: I will not be buying more physical gold until either 10Y rates rise and remain above 2% or until the Fed introduces a CBDC. I don't see either of these catalysts forming until 2023. Until 2023, it's best to play the short-term averages and trajectories in the Paper Gold markets. Depending upon the economic outcomes of the next few years, Gold could vary wildly in price. If strong deflation persists, $500 Gold is not out of the question. If Laws change and a CBDC is introduced, the price of Gold could easily rise above $10,000 (or other denominations). Unconsidered Catalysts (BASEL III): BASEL III is close to being enacted. I have not been able to research all of the components of BASEL III's changes. However, one of the major changes (along with reinstating Gold as a Tier I asset for collateralization purposes) is making unallocated positions impossible. How BASEL III does this is not clear to me but I will post an update once I have a better understanding of this. Removal of unallocated paper positions in Gold would result in a precipitous rise in Gold's price if the assumption of many Goldbugs (that gold is heavily manipulated through paper markets (ETF's and Bullion Banks)) are true. This isn't that ridiculous an idea considering some statements given by Greenspan and Bernanke. I'll go into details on these statements in future ideas. Short Term Prediction (Now to 2023): NEUTRAL with a price of Gold ranging from $1,700.00 to $1,900.00 . Long Term Prediction (2023 to 2050): REMARKABLY BULLISH with a price of Gold ranging from $50,000.00 (eq) to $100,000 (eq). (where "eq" allows for future U.S. dollar equivalents)
TVC:GOLD
by forever_green
Fed QE Tapering Talks Reaching A Crescendo (05 August 2021)Just a couple of days before the release of the long-awaited U.S. nonfarm jobs report, several Federal Reserve committee members expressed their hawkish views on an QE tapering. Fed Vice Chairman sees QE tapering to start this year. During his speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics yesterday, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that together with the other committee members, they expect the U.S. economy to continue recovering towards the central bank’s “substantial further progress” standard although this was not met in July. Also, Clarida highlighted that if his “baseline outlook does materialize”, then he expects the announcement for quantitative easing (QE) tapering to be made later this year. With the progress made in recent months, he believes the Fed is ready for a first round of tapering by year-end. In regard to interest rate, Clarida explained that the three conditions required before the Fed considers a rate hike are: Labor market conditions reaching levels consistent with the Fed’s assessments of maximum employment Annual inflation rising to 2% Annual inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time And in a scenario whereby the Fed’s economic projections realized over the forecast horizon, Clarida believes that the three conditions will be met by the end of 2022, thus anticipating a rate hike in 2023. Other committee members in favor of carrying out QE tapering soon. Fed committee member Robert Kaplan said in an interview yesterday that the Fed should start tapering QE soon and gradually as this will give the central bank more flexibility in the future in terms of interest rate adjustments. He also highlighted that continued progress in the job market for July and August should warrant an early tapering of QE. Another Fed committee member James Bullard also supported the idea of an early tapering of QE during an interview with the following reasons: Economic growth in 2021 will likely exceed the central bank’s projection of 4% Unemployment rate has declined much faster than projected Annual inflation for 2021 will likely surpass the projected 1.8% Hence, Bullard believes it will not be an issue meeting the criteria to get QE tapering started.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
1
The week ahead on Dollar. A BIG ONEDollar started this week's trading on a softer tone following an indecisive yet more dovish than expected FED meeting last week. It all depends now on the PMI numbers this week, which is expected to come out as positive. However, any lower than expected numbers should be bearish on the Dollar as this should confirm doubts of slower recovery and economic growth resulting from Delta variant. We also keep an eye on the NFP numbers at the end of this week, anything figure higher than 1 million new jobs should be considered highly bullish, and this would add extra pressure on Jerome Powell to at least specify a tapering roadmap at Jackson Hole's symposium. Any lower than 600k should again confirm slower growth and hence the sweet spot to me is in between 600k - 1kk that should give low to moderate volatility on the US dollar. Technically, USD still has a bearish target at 91.50 points roughly which could slowly be reached during this week's trading as it is supported with a negative divergence with the breakout below the rising bearish wedge.
TVC:DXY
by MohannadYakout
EURUSD Continues to Strengthen Following the FED Meeting The recent breakout of the EURUSD above the descending channel was bolstered yesterday following the July policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell and his colleagues from the FOMC did not bring anything new to the table, which weakened the greenback in the short term. The price action is currently probing the 200-day MA (in purple). The next closest resistance can be found at the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.18892.
by Trendsharks
FED: Recovery Heading Towards The Right Direction (29 July 2021)The Fed’s decision. The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered no surprise during their monetary policy meeting earlier today as widely expected. The Federal Funds Rate was held unchanged at the target range of 0-0.25% while quantitative easing remains at $120 billion per month ($80 billion of Treasury securities and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities). Optimistic tone on U.S. economic recovery in the rate statement. Although no actions were carried out, the Fed did expressed signs of optimism on the U.S. economic recovery in the interest rate statement. The following changes made in the statement indicate so. The sentence: “Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened.” has been revised to: “With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen.” The change indicates continued recovery in economic activities and employment. The sentence: “The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown improvement.” has been revised to: “The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered.” The change indicates that the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved since the previous meeting. The sentence: “Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.” has been added into the latest statement, indicating optimism in the economic recovery. Progress made in economic recovery but still far from full recovery. Despite the optimistic tone sent out by the Fed, the central bank’s Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned during the press conference that the economy is still a distance away from making “substantial further progress” towards the Fed’s goals of maximum employment and price stability. This does not come as a surprise since the U.S. job market is still around 6.3 million jobs away from the pre-pandemic level. Furthermore, Powell highlighted that inflation is expected to remain above the central bank’s target in the upcoming months but not sufficient to trigger a change in monetary policy. On the issue of the recent rise in COVID cases due to the Delta variant, Powell downplayed the negative impact it has on the U.S. economic recovery. He said: “With successive waves of Covid over the past year and some months now, there has tended to be...less in the way of economic implications from each wave, and we will see whether that is the case with the Delta variety,” expressing confidence that the handling of the Delta variant will be more effective than handling COVID-19 when it was first declared a pandemic. Impact on the market. The upbeat tone delivered by the Fed resulted in the market going risk-on, increasing the demand for risky assets and currencies. Thus, the safe haven U.S. dollar weakened against the other major currencies.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
7.28.21 Candle Will Be Telling!What we have is a possible Hanging man. We have two of the three ingredients for a 87% chance of downward trend over next week or two if next candle is red. Given this weeks events, its looking bearish short term at the very least. Will be interesting to see how things shake out! Let me know your thoughts of if this was helpful! Not advice or a recommendation to initiate any kind of transaction. All investments have risks associated with them. Trade with care.
AMEX:SPYShort
by deadsquare214
5
Impact of Fed Unchanged Interest Rate and Gold PricesHere I tried to show the movement of the day when Fed announces its unchanged Interest Rate decisions during the last 6 times. As you can see, the gold prices had been quite volatile during the last Fed decision on June the 16th and shed 1.45%. Since then, the yellow metal has not been able to overcome the loss and is in the downward trend. Please note that this is shared for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended for financial decisions. If you like the idea, please like and comment :)
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn621491
The Australian Dollar Appears OversoldThis week’s Federal Reserve meeting could ignite some activity in the currency market. The Australian Dollar, in particular, has some interesting patterns. First, stochastics on AUDUSD’s weekly chart have dipped to their most oversold level since February 2020. Next, consider how prices have returned to the 0.73 area where they peaked Aug. 31-Sept. 1. This is also near a monthly low from May 2017. Intermarket analysis could be interesting because the Aussie has traditionally followed copper (although that correlation has broken down this year). Given the current rally in copper and ongoing strength in iron ore, this could support the currency. Remember, Australia is a major mining country. Overall, there isn’t much confirmation yet and the Australian economy is still struggling. However, given the Fed’s commitment to low rates and potential topping patterns in the greenback, futures traders may want to keep an eye on the Aussie for a potential turn. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
by TradeStation
Gold Miners Have Had a Golden CrossThe Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF has one of the most interesting charts in the market. Notice the steady decline from last summer, followed by a bump in the spring. It then gave back almost all those gains but still managed to drag the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) above the 200-day SMA. That results in a strange situation with both SMAs falling – yet still in a bullish sequence. Next, the recent drop erased most but not all the earlier bounce. It has managed to register a higher low (notice the weekly chart below). Third, MACD has turned positive in the last few sessions. Finally, stochastics on the weekly chart show an oversold condition: The other catalyst could be the Federal Reserve because Jerome Powell was more dovish than expected yesterday. The U.S. dollar has trended upward lately, but in March GDX turned higher about two weeks before the greenback rolled over. So we could be at a start of a new pattern, with a dovish Fed lifting precious metals and dragging on the dollar. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
AMEX:GDXLong
by TradeStation
59
Gold has no concrete direction right now! After finishing an uptrend, the chart broke its parallel channel and entered a side way consolidation phase. In this current situation, there is no solid speculation for the future of the chart. The only thing which is possible here is to short when we are near the top and open a long position near the bottom(supporting areas). We should be cautious about tonight’s federal reserve’s statement. That news would make the markets move very extremely! Good luck.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by khanzadiashkan7
USD/CAD: Inflation it's a good sign that U.S. economy will peakThe U.S. Dollar continue strenghten during this day, and today, we have a good news that Federal Reserve it's running the inflation in the economy. For that, this it's a good news in the economy as investor hope with more news about the next check stimulus about the covid-19 recovery in America. Now, I put a long position in the market price at $1.2520 CAD and the SL will be $1.2490 CAD (30 pips) and my target at $1.2600 CAD (81 pips)
Long
by harisonhbn9718
DXY UP or DOWN then UP ?Last week the USD - supported by mixed data - was consolidating after rejection from the descending trendchannel and still within an important zone near the 92 . Two possible scenarios are in play : A) The price closes below 92 and then DOWN to an important area marked by the arrow 1- Fib 0.618 2-91 psychological lvl 3-retest of the broken Weekly descending trendline 4-Daily ascending trendline 5- Bearish Divergence on StochRSI From this point an UPWARD move would be expected B) The price consolidates before finally BREAKING OUT of the Daily descending trendchannel and initiating the Weekly Double Bottom pattern and price may carry it to the 97 lvl If price breaks 90.5 DOWNWARD the idea becomes invalidated ***Color coding*** Violet Monthly & Weekly Red Daily Blue Hourly Grey LQ zone *** Thanks for reading and safe trading everyone,,,
TVC:DXYLong
by kimozelghonemy
Gold: The Big Picture.- Period of pandemics and uncertainties - Period of high inflation attacks when U.S. economy started falling (all that money kicks-into daily US economy and affect/inflate household spending) --- Same period where money will start flowing EMs & China (Age of EMs starting here because of trillions of Junk-Dollars need to earn something out of the U.S. markets instead of ducking) - Period of 2Ks largest inflation attack (Gold may hit up to 7500$-10000$ then like before when it hit 850$ first time) - Dust setting, but things never gonna be same anymore. Age of Global Hyperinflation, where U.N. will start talking about "rebuilding global monetary system", end of Bretton Wood officially. * Scenario is based on Elliott Wave & current/near-future market structuring, reforms (basel 3, fed bullshits, EMs such as Turkey, etc.), Asia, 1:1000 banking during pandemics, incredible money supply (how US gov't pickpocketing citizens & the world) etc. (My personal view.)
FX:XAUUSD
by Gentlem4n
2