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Topical FRED and Yale Investor Confidence Data IndicatorsYou can copy this chart as your own to get the indicators. Required Reserves of Depository Institutions, in $ Billions FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org Announcement: www.federalreserve.gov FAQ: www.frbservices.org Explanation: This action eliminates the need for thousands of depository institutions to maintain balances in accounts at Reserve Banks to satisfy reserve requirements, thereby freeing up liquidity in the banking system to support lending to households and businesses. Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org pages.uoregon.edu Monthly smoothed recession probabilities are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. Historically, three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities above 80% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new recession, while three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities below 20% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new expansion. Unemployment Rate FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. U.S. Confidence Indices Yale: som.yale.edu Buy on Dips: The percent of the population expecting a rebound the next day should the market ever drop 3% in one day. Crash (this is somewhat confusing): The percent of the population who attach little probability to a stock market crash in the next six months. The Crash Confidence Index is the percentage of respondents who think that the probability is strictly less than 10% . Valuation: The percent of the population who think that the market is not too high. Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: Wednesday Level FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org The total face value of U.S. Treasury securities held by the Federal Reserve. Purchases or sales of U.S. Treasury securities by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) are made in the secondary market, or with various foreign official and international organizations that maintain accounts at the Federal Reserve. FRBNY's purchases or sales in the secondary market are conducted only through primary dealers. Assets: Other: Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level FRED: fred.stlouisfed.org Repurchase agreements reflect some of the Federal Reserve's temporary open market operations. Repurchase agreements are transactions in which securities are purchased from a primary dealer under an agreement to sell them back to the dealer on a specified date in the future. The difference between the purchase price and the repurchase price reflects an interest payment. The Federal Reserve may enter into repurchase agreements for up to 65 business days, but the typical maturity is between one and 14 days. Federal Reserve repurchase agreements supply reserve balances to the banking system for the length of the agreement. The Federal Reserve employs a naming convention for these transactions based on the perspective of the primary dealers: the dealers receive cash while the Federal Reserve receives the collateral.
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