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SPX | Let The Roaring '20s Begin!As the famous billionaire said in December 2021 (elon), the "prophet" who is apparently loved and trusted by everyone. I don't know why... Disclaimer, SPX by itself will probably not follow this path, things are quite complex as you will soon find out. First of all, Recession is not something simple. Everyone talks about it, but it is not always meaningful. This year, equities weren't in a recession. While on the one hand the prices dropped, the denominator (dollar value) increased. The 2022 "Recession" is not apparent, we have just hit the mean. Note that the channel is automatically drawn from 1950 using the Log-scaled Linear Regression indicator. Taking note of the above, we can interpret that instead of SPX following the 1920's bubble, the pair SPX*yields will. These charts above give us a valuable lesson. Until now, a .50 increase in yields had little effect on the direct equity value. A monthly rate hike of 100 points had little meaning in the 80s. A change from 15% to 16% on yields for example, is just a 6% increase in the immediate price of money. A change from 0.25% to 4.50% in 2022, is an 18x increase. This means that the immediate effects of such an increase are dramatical. The 2022 "recession" occured just because price was so rapidly revalued. The change in dollar value is "effective immediately", when a rate-hike comes. Everything measured in dollars is immediately repriced accordingly. Even if price may take time to show it, cost does change. The USOIL true price changed immediately. US investors enjoy a massive discount in oil price, while the rest of the world "enjoys" a bull-flag. But this phenomenon will not last forever. Rates will eventually hit a ceiling and the FED will pivot. I will now try to "estimate" when the tightening schedule might end. Had the 2020 crash not happened, this would be an average rate-hike schedule. It lasts 7 years. This puts the end of the tightening schedule to the end of 2023. So to add these together, we expect a QT environment until the end of 2023, and stable decrease of yield rates starting in 2024. Now I will try to make sense of them all, and try to find a probable behavior of SPX based on the yield hike-drop schedule. For simplicity, I pretend that the terminal rate is already here (or priced in). After all, the US10Y chart shows signs of peaking. We can conclude that even if this is not the terminal rate today, and based on the FED announcements, the market has already priced in the full extent of the tightening schedule. I will return to the modified USOIL chart. We have seen that in reality, the price for oil (the main contributor to inflation) dropped a lot thanks to the tightening schedule. The USOIL/yields chart is like a time machine. It shows the final price equities/commodities will take when the dollar-repricing (rate hike) circles around the economy. We can conclude that the rate hike schedule was successful and will cool down inflation (inside the US) With all of the above, it is safe to assume that: Inflation has peaked (for now?). The rate-hike schedule / QT environment will persist until the end of 2023. From 2024 we can expect rates to drop. By multiplying or dividing with yields, we can make conclusions for the reason why we were not in a recession this year. Since equities and yields are multiplied to calculate the true equity value, we don't have a clear indication on why the true value is increasing. Charting SPX/yields can help us understand "thanks to who is the true SPX chart increasing". By analyzing them, we can get more indications on the future movement of SPX. We assumed that yields have nearly peaked. They will remain constant or increase a little for the months to come. Equities have no reason to continue a sell-off now that yields have almost peaked and the worst of inflation has passed. So we expect equities to increase compared to steady yields in the following months. Taking all of that in account, we can end up with the following charts: A probable scenario: An improbable scenario: More about the trends in the following idea: Moral of the story, always have a plan B. Make sure not to waste it creating a bubble. When inflation drops and equities bubble, there will be no reason for rates to increase. Just like in the 2018-2020 Recession, we will beg for the FED to drop rates to feed the bubble. When there is no more room for yields to drop, equities will. The equity market is infested with weapons of mass destruction (derivatives). It is bound that we see a burst of this long-term bubble. Final question of the night: Why would anyone print an astronomical amount of money to make so little in the end? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I've talked about how the 2018-2020 Recession no-one remembers is a micrography of the 2008-2009 Recession. For reference, look at the rate-hike schedule, and notice the little "step" that appears in the end of the 2008 rate-drop schedule. The same appeared in the 2020 crash. On the left, the modified-GFC is visually similar to the standard GFC chart (with and without yields transformation). On the right, the bubble SPX experienced in 2018-2020 now looks like an actual recession. PS2. This crazy idea I posted may not be so crazy after all... PS3. In 2025, Nostradamus (another pseudo-prophet) told that WW3 would come. The same I heard from many others. endtimeheadlines.org PS4. The two sources of wealth are theft and inheritance. -Aristotle Onassis PS5. I am not a trader, I am a father. Take what I say with a grain of salt.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
41
The DOW Road has Ended. Now Welcome Hyperinflation.The market has chosen a way to profit throughout all these years. This is the end of this way, QE lead us here... in this dead end. Equities was the "gold" of the time that passed. Now this is changing... If you read until the end of this idea, you will realize that a lot is changing. I will briefly analyze this chart and what it tells us. This is the ratio of equities compared to yields. I have modified yields using an equation I made up. This channel is drawn from 01/01/1950. This is a date I use since this is the day America 2.0 was born. I have talked about it on the MV = PQ idea linked in the end of this idea. Well, we have just missed this trend... Right now we could be witnessing the very beginning of US 3.0. Long-term technicals on this chart are deadly for DJI. So this chart above suggests that the new big thing is bonds. As you will now realize, this is not the entire story... The following are IMPORTANT: There are some things that trouble me... SPX compared to energy is showing signs of stagnation. There is substantial drop for equities ahead of us. So okay, energy cost is going to increase compared to equities, that is something we have taken for granted the past few months. We have talked about this a myriad times... This is not the entire story. This chart below shows that energy increases will overperform yield increases. So in a sense, inflation (calculated from commodity cost) will overperform yields. Inflation is poised to increase much more than yields. Until now yields were consistently decreasing, now there is no more room down for yields. Even if yields remain stable on today's levels, this chart suggests that energy prices will still increase. If yields increase, energy prices will increase more compared to yields. This is a recipe for hyperinflation... This chart below, shows more evidence towards the same conclusion... Basically, "long-term inflation" (PPIACO*GOLD) is creating bull-flags compared to "total money created from yields" (mod-yields*CURRCIR). This means that the cumulative price of production cost and gold cost, will substantially increase compared to what bonds yield in total. Conclusion: Chaos. No matter what politicians want, things are out of control right now. These charts suggest that. This is a long-term phenomenon which cannot change from free will. Nature is more powerful than we could ever hope to be ourselves. These charts are simply scary. I don't have the words to explain much. The charts speak for themselves. I am sorry for the rushed post, and any mistakes that I might have done. I began writing about DOW, and I found out that there is much more happening right now... We all knew that we could have increased cost of energy, and stagnating equities. I couldn't put the scale of them in perspective. I hope that these charts gave you some perspective, they certainly gave me a clear perspective. PS. While we cannot avoid what is coming, we have the power to choose what boat to take. The stranger told us that we cannot be in two different boats. We are basically obliged to choose our path. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
10
Warning DrumsJust a short update for today. It is important, so it deserves an idea on its own. For the first time since 2019, the FED is now officially giving money into the system. What could this mean for the US economy? Are they sensing weakness or is this just a response to the recent banking crises? Now let's look at the history of bailouts. Price made a higher-high, and stayed high for months until the GFC. Similarly in 2019, without anyone concerned about recession, the FED pivoted and cut rates. This might be the beginning of more bailouts. Who knows how many more... There is a big difference however... Historically, during periods of economic weakness, the money input was higher than the output. Now, the scale of money going out of the system is astronomical. So much so, that is literally bull-flagging. Money supply metrics cannot be ignored. Record low RSI for money supply. Beware, these scale of these events is incalculable. The numbers we witness here are massive (RRPONTTLD). The money supply monster we have created is more powerful than it's creator. What must be done to fight it? And who will be the first to fall? Do note that RRPONTTLD is a sum of agreements. The effect of such a dramatic money drain out of the system will take years to show itself. This M2SL drop is just the tip of the money-berg. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
FRED:WORAL
by akikostas
VIX - is the sell 20, buy 30 strategy done?Throughout 2022 you would have done VERY well taking profit when the TVC:VIX hit 20 and accumulating when the VIX hit 30. But has this trend concluded? This movement and profit/accumulation opportunity is consistent with the most recent tightening from 2017 to 2018 where fed funds were rising, and the yield for 2 year treasuries in the bond market exceeded fed funds. When the yield for 2 year treasuries fell below fed funds the VIX remained below 20 until covid hit. The VIX spiked during covid and consistently descended while the market expanded. This pattern is only observed in the most recent cycle and not something that we see consistently repeated historically. If the 2 year remains below fed funds, should not expect the VIX to range between 20 to 30 or will 20 to become the ceiling?
TVC:VIXLong
by Ben_1148x2
The Bear Party Hasn't Even Started YetEvery major crash in modern history came after rate hikes completed. Either during the plateau or during the first cuts. No bulls can explain how we're going to avoid that fate this time. We hiked twice as fast as 2007 and 2018 hikes, yet somehow there's gonna be a soft landing? Yeah right LOL It's already looking like a broadening wedge like 2000; and about to break the 13yr trendline for the first time since 2020. See inflation chart below: Worst case scenario(red), we get rapid deflation that causes a 6 month bull run at first, but ends with devastating crash. Like 2019, however we can't afford to write more stimulus checks. So there will be a depression, not a recession. No V recovery. Best we can hope for is more inflation(yellow); so the government can try and print it's way out of debt. Chop sideways roughly -50% +100% for a decade or more. Pipe dream is green, the Fed managing to thread the needle and get inflation between 0-3% for years to come. All while the U.S. Treasury manages to service it's interest payments, despite failing to close the gap between tax receipts and spending. This is not going to happen. It's physically impossible to produce 5M qualified workers overnight to fill the gap between job openings and job seekers. Layoffs won't help either. By then the recession is in full swing. Higher taxes coming as well. Growth is dead.
FRED:EFFRShort
by Nicklaus68
4
SPX | Early AccessI have posted about this chart before, but I wanted to show it more clearly this time. Above we see SPX, the standard chart. Below we see a custom index I invented, which is VVIX/VIX. It is a neat way to make sense of the chaotic nature of VIX. To clear things out, I have hidden both charts and instead I show an indicator called WLSMA. It is tremendously helpful to smoothen the "fog" the standard chart creates. In the end I will add the link to the inventor. I took great care on drawing these trendlines. I tried to get into the mind of the investor back then, and drew the lines that best made sense, and could provide some actual meaning. On the chart, red arrows are drawn. These are the times when the VVIX/VIX chart violates decisively it's trendline. On the same dates, I created arrows on the SPX chart to get an idea of just how early this method warns us. While this method may not be useful for traders (I am not a trader, I am just passionate analyzing charts), I find it incredibly interesting on how these two correlate, and make actual sense. I find VIX by itself completely useless. Don't get triggered by what I said. How on earth is VIX = 20 a good buy-in strategy? It is as about as useful as RSI getting below 80. Again don't get triggered by it and flame comments down below. Numbers and money don't mean nothing. It is perspective and values that make sense. Now onto some charts: In 2008 we were notified from VVIX/VIX all the way back in February of 2007, and got a confirmation on April of 2007. This is not a typo, 1 year before the GFC. Curiously, this happened when FED's tightening schedule was near it's end. Also interesting is the April-September period of 2008, when the VVIX/VIX chart showed signs of hope when it broke above it's trendline. And compared to now: We can conclude similarly for the 2010-2015 period. And the 2016-2020 period. And the 2020-2023 period of course. Are we approaching this hopeful period before the crisis? A comparison between 2008 and 2023, in the period of deadly hope. Link to the inventor of the WLSMA indicator: Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
SPX | A Trader's MindThe anxious moment when your investment goes through a period of slowdown or drop. When everything is good, everyone is happy. Nobody thinks twice when a market is growing. It's at that point of the first lower-low, when an investor loses their sleep. And it can be suffering when insomnia is prolonged. The 2022 Recession will be remembered as the most confusing and pressured of all. One whole year later, and still we don't sleep all that well. We hoped that things would clear out by now. Instead, the situation is more confusing and chaotic than ever! Being in a period of all-time-high records, I feel proud. Yet, the responsibility in my work is most important than ever. And there are many records occurring right now... For the first time, Money Supply has taken such a dramatic downturn, with an incredibly steep yield-curve inversion. With 470B burned until now (M2SL chart) and with such a prolonged inversion, it seems that a new era begins right before our eyes. A period when money is scarcer and scarcer. We were crying all these years that money loses it's value. Now that money is getting much more powerful, we are still crying. This kind of mentality doesn't help us. It can certainly get us pretty far, but in the wrong direction. We should dedicate our thoughts and efforts into deciphering this incredible new era. I am not optimistic for this new era for many reasons, an explanation of these reasons is not fitting in a trading platform. We are facing serious humanitarian problems that we choose to avoid, or problems that we create (un)willingly. To figure out what happens, we should begin thinking spherically. Isolating equities doesn't get us far. It is the balance of powers that is changing in an instant. -- Tricky Bear Market Trendlines Bear market analysis is not as simple as many expect. The bottom is not that easy to pinpoint. There are many bottoms that precede the terminal bottom. In each one, everyone trades as if the bottom is in. Most of these times, the bottom is not in... I've seen innumerable charts this past year, claiming that the bottom is in and that we should trade it. Yet, none of them ended up true Breakout, divergence, MA crossover, over and over and over again... The same mentality occurred in previous recessions... After these instances, more downside followed. Are we sure we are out of the woods? -- Hollow Equities The Stock Market is not what it used to be. The major indices are not priced just by stocks, but from derivatives also. The following chart attempts at calculating the percentage quantity of derivatives. The higher it gets, the more "hollow" prices get. More info in the following idea: How much should we trust index prices given that they are filled with weapons of mass destruction? -- Cash instead of Stocks From 1920 to 2020, Equities were the go-to investment. Currency was just the mechanism to buy into equities. Now a paradigm change is beginning. Progressively higher yields and steady equities shape an entirely new understanding of what investment is. From investment in equities, to investing in money itself. A horizontal movement is expected for DJI against yields. Equities can increase as much as yields allow them to. Not the other way around. Until now, equities dictated yields. If equities stagnated, yields had to drop to stimulate the economy. Now, equities may increase only when yields allow them to. The FED is showing that rates will not lower even if this ends up in severe financial crises. Money has to remain strong for those who have it. In periods of war, financial advantage is more important than growth. Surviving against the enemy is a priority. Talking about a paradigm shift! -- Commodity Inflation Commodity inflation is brewing. Now it is beyond brewing, it is getting explosive... Inflation is getting so severe, that it is bull-flagging against money supply itself! At least according to my charts... And if Bitcoin can be considered a commodity, it is showing the same dynamics as material commodities do. And in an even higher degree! To NDQ Bulls, the big-tech bubble appears to have already ended! Perhaps we have not seen just yet the dynamics Bitcoin can get. It is proving an investment that is progressively accumulating incredible amounts of idle wealth. High amounts of money are "parked" in Bitcoin, sitting idle. This chart is very simplistic. One more experienced with Bitcoin analysis can make a more thorough analysis. If one of you does, please inform me because it is very interesting for me! There is much more occuring. Housing is one important market, on which I am not experienced to analyze. As a conclusion, I advise every TradingView user to concentrate their efforts into deciphering the future. In this new era of progressively stronger currency, equities and investments will not perform like they did the past 40 years of QE. There is much work to do for us to financially survive in this environment. PS. To get something out of the way, I don't give trading advice. My charts are drawn with arrows so as to explain more easily my thought process. I post these ideas to provoke conversation and logical analysis. I can always be wrong in my thought process. If you disagree with a chart, please disprove it with a chart. Not with texts of semi-logical reasoning and by calling me crazy or conspiracy theorist. Of course any comments and corrections are welcome! It is when you want to disprove something that requires you to send counter-evidence. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
5
SPX | The Everything BubbleSPX vs Inflation is a chart I explained in the following idea. While this chart showed incredible golden-ratio behavior, there are some periods which stand out. The smooth dance of the ratio throughout the last 100 years, has some quirks (the red ellipses). These periods are not random, they all feature a bubble behavior. It is clear as day that in 1996 the .com bubble formed, which caused SPX to return to trend in 2003. The 2004-2008 stock market growth and the Great Financial Crisis are not apparent, since they are part of The Great 2000 Recession. They are in the middle of a long-term downwards trend. So where does this leave us? If this chart has any meaning, we are in the middle of the air, with incalculable drop for the chart in the future... One target can be pinpointed using probable fib-extensions, using retracements drawn from important highs and lows. It is 12 times lower than now, or 92% drop. It depends on how you look at it... PS. I know that charts don't go back in time. The red arrow is drawn towards the left for aesthetic reasons. Who knows how far downwards is the trend now... PS2. I invented a new name for the Head and Shoulders pattern. I call it Cerberus, the three-headed beast guarding the Underworld. Look at it in action: The tail of Cerberus is a dragon's head spewing flames, which in trading would be a bull-flag. Chart taken from SPY_Master Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
6
SPX | The cake is a lieThis is not the 2008 Recession. This is deception. This is the Recession nobody remembers. SPX by itself doesn't show the entire truth. The monster of QE clouds your vision, clouds your judgement. It's strength, it's pressure pushes everything upwards so much. Too much... Until you are in a delusion. The 2020 Black Swan was not black. He was in the shadows. One of the lights that can help you see him is the SPX*US10Y chart. In the "Related Ideas" there is the link to the inventor of the chart. This is the 2020 Black Swan we all witnessed. This is the 2018 Recession that really happened. For reference, this is the modified chart from 2008. And the chart from 2022. Pattern taken from 2008 and fits like a glove. We are also in UTAD, in a long-term Wyckoff Distribution. Is it a conspiracy theory? It could be. The easiest method of manipulating the economy is with bonds. They make them and they define the base yield. So in theory and in practice, they can affect the economy any way they want. In short, they could in theory hide a recession in an ocean of money, in the era of information and QE. They are after your money. They will do anything to take them. Watch out. Who knows what trap they will set up now... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
30
SPX | Did you win?Ah the beauty of Fibonacci... when after a painful recession for equities, we reach the golden ratio alive and well. The satisfaction!!! Now we can go all-in equities! Perhaps you are one of the lucky ones who bought the October bottom, then congrats to you! How much was your profit really? After all, this was a peculiar year... Yields massively increasing, equities dropping. It is like a dead end, it feels like a maze... The main chart does show a significant recession... But we have passed it! Some charts suggest that we had no recession this year... Other charts suggest the complete opposite! Note that these are my charts. I was the contradictory being... Look at what the last chart means: LQD is the investment-grade ETF. On the second chart it is compared with SPX/(modified-yields) and on the third with SPX/(modified-yields*PPIACO). The correlation is as good as it can get... This is a mess... what can we infer from all of these charts? Something fundamental can help us clear the picture. We can differentiate between 4 distinct periods of the economic cycle. A. Equities increase while yields decrease (bonds increase) This is the QE model, which followed us for many years. During this period, the only winner is the one who had only stocks in the beginning. Investing everything in the stock market is your best bet. B. Equities increase while yields increase This is the scenario when the economy is at it's best. During this period, everyone wins. Both the one who has stocks and the one who is selling/lending cash (sitting on cash) win. Any kind of investment is good in this period! C. Equities decrease while yields decrease This is the nightmare of the wealthy ones, and this period that rarely comes. It happened during the 1929, the 2000 and the 2008 recessions. During this period, you win if you have nothing invested, and without any money. Borrowing money to buy stocks is the best plan. D. Equities decrease while yields increase Sound familiar? This is 2022 in a nutshell. During this period, I hate to disappoint you, the only one who wins is the one who has a lot of money. Sitting on cash and lending it is your only option. The immense amount of money that the US printed, is now sitting in the hands of few. If you traded for profit, then you are probably at (or near) net-zero. In 2022, you won if you sat in cash. We have gone full circle, from advising into sitting in cash, to advising into selling, to buying, and back to the beginning. Finance is complex... To conclude, my head is spinning... I have no idea what all of this will lead to. It is as if we are in a lose-lose scenario. Invest in bonds? But is the US going to be able to pay them out, after decades of free money? And with so much money in circulation, how many bonds are being purchased at these "extortionate" rates? How in the world will the US be able to pay out so much? Invest in equities? They look like they will face years of stagnation. The only thing that smells lately is the smell of war, the smell of "I have nothing to lose". The only thing to gain now is resources. Commodities are bull flagging against everything. More specifically, the combination between the cost of commodities and the cost of their production added together. This makes me believe that a small increase in production cost will lead to multiplicative increase in the final product value. This is a recipe for hyperinflation. And the big profit is if you own the land the resources are produced. (Ukraine for wheat, Taiwan for silicone, etc...). Everyone is willing to fight for these lands... I am adding this chart for the picture on the left. The CEO of Bank Of America is preparing for US bankruptcy. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
Rates Obsession - a pro interest rates set-up on TradingView Interest rate pricing has a huge effect across many financial markets at present – the correlation between short-term rates, rates volatility and the USD is certainly evident. However, with such a big window for increased volatility in interest rates pricing, as traders try and price the prospect of a 25bp or 50bp hike at the 22 March FOMC, as well as peak fed funds pricing, could increased pricing result in a big move in the USD and NAS100? In the video, we look at how we can look at the fed funds curve and understand ‘what is priced in’ – we look at how to measure the degree of cuts priced in for a specific period of time, and how to look at implied volatility in bond markets – and, why it is important for FX and index traders? Interest rates and short-term US Treasury bonds are the first derivative and so many markets take their direction from these inputs - hopefully, this gives some understanding of how you can use TradingView more effectively to assess these inputs.
TVC:US05YEducation
by Pepperstone
4
The Oil WarOil is strictly tied to dollar price (petrodollar). World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both... US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared to treasuries. Do note that there is a discrepancy between consumer oil (USOIL) and investment oil (USOIL/modified-yields). Rate hikes are not for inflation, they are for economic war advantage. During a war period, and in a deglobalized world, you need substantial purchasing power to import, and selectively export goods. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
2
Uncontrollable Inflation?Will inflation get under control? This is a question that spins on my mind. This chart clears the picture. On the top of the equation we have "long-term inflation", calculated by GOLD*PPIACO On the bottom we have the true equity value, calculated by modified-yields*SPX modified-yields = US10Y+1+1/US10Y. It follows the standard US10Y chart. This chart tells us something alarming, that no matter the politics, we are inside a massive bull-flag. This chart below, measures the long-term inflation compared to total-money-earned-from-bonds. Another golden bull-flag appears, which found support on the 1980 peak. Commodities could over-perform any attempt we have at stopping the inflationary pressures. Any upwards move on yields, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost. Take a look at SPY_Master's ideas regarding bull-flags. He is the inspiration of the GOLD*PPIACO chart. He basically used GOLD*DBC as a good measure of inflation. I replaced DBC with PPIACO for longer-term analysis. Now I will explain how and why these charts work. On the top we have GOLD*PPIACO. Gold is measured in dollars, while PPIACO not exactly... So on the numerator there is only one occurence of dollar value. M2SL moves exponentially compared to PPIACO. So PPIACO by itself doesn't get inflated by money printing. On the denominator, on the one chart we have (mod-yields)*SPX, which is again measured in dollars, but SPX is transformed for the "true" value of dollar. I thank SPY_Master once again for the inspiration. He invented the SPX/(1/US10Y) = SPX*US10Y chart. On the other chart we basically have the total money made from bonds. Total money printed is transformed for their cost. In reality this denominator measures the true value of all money printed. So it is once again normalized. Finally, look at this chart which compares equities with long-term inflation. Any upwards move on equities, will have multiplicative increase in commodity cost. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I am not a trader, these charts are not "tradeable". In fact, they could give someone second thoughts on investing. I don't have second thoughts on investing. These charts help us understand that sometimes, things are not as straightforward as we would hope. PS2. To anyone who hasn't played Half-Life 2, Father Grigori is the guardian of a city called Ravenholm. We don't go there anymore. PS3. My name implies that I am a priest of sorts, I unofficially could be one. Officially, I am not a priest. I am in love with how nature (and God) shows up in the most amazing of places. These golden flags are not random... Nothing is random. For example, look at this incredibly accurate chart. PS4. Please don't fill this comment section with arguments about faith and God, if you believe in one (or many) or if you don't believe in one (or many). These kinds of conversations tend to go up in flames. Please keep the peace.
TVC:GOLD
by akikostas
13
SPX | What goes up......must come down. Conservation of Energy We all know QE... The god-given gift which made everyone rich! Well, not everyone... Consumers sure took a hit. But who cares about them? We want corporations rich! And they got rich . And boy some of them did go rich... That's the beauty of the American Dream! Sure we were cheating... ...but look at all this money we made! Violets are green, dollars are green, stocks are green, everything is green! And stocks are everything! (This chart shows the stock market "dominance". How much of the wealth one can have is inside the stock market.) And now everything is inside crypto. We are all-in. In a Poker Game where The House always wins. After all that fun party, it is time for the bill, not clinton bill, not treasury bill, not dollar bill. It is time for debt to get paid. As always, nature will do it's trick... Nature seeks equilibrium. Entropy. When we cheat and inflate, it comes and deflates. Nature is a closed circuit. When some deflate, others inflate. And the cycle goes on... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
3
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly YieldsI have this question... Why are high yields bad? What is bad? We are in a period of big changes. There are lot's of balances changing, one of them is money. We have just passed (?) the biggest monetary experiment ever (QE) and we are about to enter the successor to that experiment, digital money. Digital money conveniently came about just at the time when hyperinflation became an expected reality. If you talked about hyperinflation 4 years ago, you were crazy, now it is expected (and perhaps actually coming). ... Instinct tells us that the unknown is a threat, rather than an opportunity. Instinct slyly and covertly compels us away from change and progress. ... -Dr. Breen In the center of the stages is the paradigm shift in yields. After decades of consistently lower yields, now we are expecting consistently higher ones. Many (including me) have prejudged themselves into be lie ving that high yields are inherently bad. I cannot conclude into what high yields are bad at. The title suggests that they have 3 faces, good bad and ugly. I can conclude that now, like always throughout history, we are rolling in a cycle. Some things have changed in unpredictable ways. This unorthodox chart shows us that this year, we have lived through something unique. Perhaps this will be the way things move forward. From the charts above I have tried hard to conclude into something. The only thing I have learned is the following: Bonds are the new equities. In QE world, lower yields made more money. How? Money printing and borrowing needs low yields for it to be popular. Immense liquidity bubbled everything and productivity skyrocketed. QE is the fuel of globalism. Equities paid out dividends, so higher equities led to even more money. In QT world, higher yields make more money. How? Money burning and lending needs high yields for it to be profitable. Money makes more money, and every day it makes even more money. Commodity producers (GOLD*PPIACO as an example) and wealthy individuals/corporations/nations can enjoy this new era. QT is the fuel of war. Everything is precious and everyone fights for it. In a globalized world, you could make money by being an intermediate entity. Now to make money you must actually own the resources and money. Rich get richer, and poor get poorer. This is the purchasing power of the consumer dollar. Poor get poorer... Poor get poorer when rich get richer. These charts above are simple to understand and analyze. Down below I will add some of my favorite charts. These charts calculate the value of commodities compared to equities or money supply. Commodity production bull-flags against equities. Commodity production bull-flags against money supply itself. The bull flag is against yields as well. True Production Cost (PPIACO*yields) is bull-flagging (?) PPIACO is used as a historical alternative to USOIL. For some reason, we cannot perform old historical calculations using oil. They show that the commodities prove a big motive for everyone. Especially to those who seek war. Would anyone in their clear mind expect WWIII to be talked about in the 2020s? With the knowledge we have collected throughout all these years, this would be out of the question! Yet, here we are, casually talking about it. Again, changes are happening but we are stuck in a cycle. All we can do about it is to understand where we are, and not constantly deceive ourselves and others into thinking otherwise. So there is a clear benefit into just realizing where we are, it is not financial profit, it is speaking truth. Conclusion? This is a zero-sum game for consumers. Also, with bonds we are committing hubris. Bonds is a mechanism that helps money itself make more money. Have you heard about the Ancient Greeks? They talked about the fact that when money makes money, it is Hubris (something like sin, only worse). Equities gave more output than there was input, if someone includes long-term dividends. You working and making money is not Hubris (according to Ancient Greeks). Making a system which enables money to make money, then you commit Hubris. Consistently higher yields will help money make even more money. Equities are facing Nemesis (compared to bonds). Bonds have just now committed Hubris. There may be many years until they face Nemesis as well. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. This movie "good bad ugly" was released in 1966, a period financially similar to the one we live now.
TVC:US10Y
by akikostas
2
The QE(xperience)Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose steadily. US being one of the winners of WW2 and with the Marshall Plan deal, had a big advantage compared to the rest of the world. Technicals: The 1.618 retracement proves a significant resistance from above, which behaved as the ceiling for the Great Stagflation period of 1960s. Price reached an indecision where price couldn't penetrate the 1.618 retracement, but didn't want to fall below the 1929 high. A golden bull-flag was created, which escaped to the upside in 1982. QE 1.0 After severe stagflation, a new era of progressively lower yields led to the creation of the mechanism for QE1. It's fuel ended in 2000, and for a decade, the economy had big trouble going forward. It wasn't until the GFC when the foundation was set for the birth of QE2. Technicals: We have reached the 3rd harmonic and this proves big resistance for price. During this time, a harmonic bull-flag shaped. QE 2.0 The QExperience, which until now was unknown and unnamed, had now a name. And we have lived with it until 2021. Derivatives came about and inflated what is left to inflate. Since day 1 of 2022 we are outside it's trend. Technicals: Retracements drawn using the Great Depression peaks/bottoms constitute significant support/resistance levels. Conclusion: This SPX modificator makes historical analysis of SPX more mathematically accurate and clearer to see/analyze. A new era of increasing yields leads to multiplicative problems in the QE machine. Welcome to the QT era. We are already in it, for the past year, we hope you enjoy your stay! Look at the GFC intervention. The modified SPX chart depends on yields. More about it on this chaotic, full-of-mistakes idea. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
13
Artificial LifeWe live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides that she wants to run the economy, and prints $100. She creates the debt as well, so all is good. CB lends that money to PB and demands some profit (Y) which could be the current US10Y. The Private Bank then, to profit off of the loan, lends some money to a human. Let's pretend that the loan the human gets is ($100+Y). On top of that there will be another tariff that will go towards the PB, let's say again Y. From that simplified transaction, the PB makes more profit than the loan, because she lended some funds from their reserves. So the PB will earn from the human 100+Y*(100+Y) and will pay back to the CB 100+Y. Now remember, the only money in existence is the $100 that the CB made. So technically, nobody can fully pay out their obligation. Everyone is in debt and technically everyone is bankrupt from Day 1. To cover the increasing needs of humans for loans, the PB needs more money, and so lends from the CB. The second time around, the PB borrows $100+y So what the CB does is print some more money, every day we pay out our old obligations and we create more. That story you might already know. I added it because I wanted to make some calculations on it. For us to make sense of it all, we try to find out how many obligations were created from thin air. Scenario 1 If everyone is paid off, including the CB, the extra obligations are y^2+2*y. Now let's consider the percentage we gained from all of this. From a single "y" obligation, we created y^2+2*y obligations. Therefore the rate of change is (final value - initial value)/(initial value). Rate of Change = ROC = y+1 And if we plot SPX/ROC = SPX/(US10Y+1) Scenario 2 Everyone is paid off, except the Central Bank. While this might not be 100% feasible, I believe that it ends up describing much clearer today's life. Now the extra obligations (extra money) in circulation are y^2+2*y+1 And the rate of change from the single "y" obligation is: ROC = y+1+1/y And this is the plot we are witnessing now. (SPX/ROC) Conclusion @SPY_Master invented this chart SPX/(1/US10Y), linked below. Which is basically a ROC of 1/y. So the new ROC comes to fulfill the one before it, and give it a more "mathematically accurate" representation. Where does this leave us? This chart stopped on the 4th retracement. RSI is looking something more beyond precarious. It is fearful. This is another chart on how price moved the last 20 years. I will comment later on some more charts. For now, I will let the indicators speak of themselves. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
8
Weapons of Mass Destruction"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are hitting new highs, getting inflated from more and more derivative trading and leverage. Just how much of what we see is a bubble? Judging by this chart, we should go back to pre-2015 levels... Trade lightly , for this is hallowed ground. - Wall Street Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
7
Markets want their equities back.The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold (penetrated it's ATR channel to the downside) and is now back inside it. This is bullish. This year stochastics were absolutely glued together, it doesn't get any tighter. Now they are ready for an upwards swing. But wait. Not all is good. The "true" SPX chart (SPX*US10Y) is showing it's first signs of weakness. So we have reached the point of "diminishing returns". Any increase in equities is not providing wealth. Like before, RSI, Stochastics and KC don't help. SPX is showing signs of strength for the following months. While I expect a degree of weakness in equities, not all hope is lost. In the meantime, I expect horizontal movement for equities, and some probable growth. Beware, for the cake is still a lie. A couple of extra charts: The chart I added above, the point we missed the trendline was in December 2018. In December of 2018 was the time when Put/Call ratio and VIX took separate ways. And what did equities do after this point in time? PS. With all that conspiracy, I wander why I don't wear a tinfoil hat... yet. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. - Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
1
This chart measures pain.Spoiler alert, there is a lot. Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously. An easy-to-explain chart. As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when there is strength, historically... Now the FEDFUNDS race now is for inflation (amongst other conspiracy stuff) Does this chart work??? I don't know... Orange line: It is SPX in log scale. Blue line: I tried to add in the equation the FEDFUNDS rate. The price of SPX is divided by M2SL. This takes out of the equation the money printing. Now we multiply by 10-FEDFUNDS rate. I could do many different calculations but this is good enough for my knowledge. I am no trader, I have even managed to forget physics I did one year ago, so you could't possibly call me a genius. So take this with a grain of salt. What we find out is a new blue line which could be a measure of today's strength of economy. Throughout history, the two lines followed together, with the blue line surpassing the orange. Therefore the "strength" is higher than the SPX reading. In 2008 the lines followed through in exactly the same fashion. Even in 2000, albeit the blue line being slow, they both reached the same bottom. What we see now is the incredible. The economy's strength is already in trash. And for quite some time... It appears that my extreme ideas are not that extreme after all... Go ahead, post some hate comments below, like some did in the idea I linked. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
2
Peak Equities?Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it? But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23? And another question... have equities peaked? For the past year, bonds have been outperforming equities. But equities have been holding relatively strong despite the monumental increase in yields. Now we might have reached the point of diminishing returns. Every move we make is beginning to turn up against us. The similarity to the Great Depression is stunning. Stochastics don't help the situation much. Even if a total crash does not occur, the product looks fated to move horizontally. The cover chart pinpoints us on a fib retracement, with much resistance above. The drawn levels were respected throughout the last 15 years. Other equity comparisons follow suit... The charts above attempt to objectively calculate the price of equities compared to the cost of money. This chart below attempts to calculate the excess performance SPX has, compared to the performance of an investment in bonds. It is further modified by PPIACO, the producer price cost. Printed on the chart are some beautiful bull flags, and some very historically-important retracements. Equities will have much trouble gaining traction compared to bonds. This year, the relative performance of equities compared to bonds, showed a 60% drop. So 2022 was definitely a Dump Year. This is massive of a figure for the equity market, measured as relative performance. Also the bond market has suffered a lot this year. If equities have already sustained a massive hit compared to bonds, who will be the next to take the dive? Since their product (their cumulative profit) has just now showed signs of stagnation. Will equities drop again or bonds, or both? It smells like 2023 will have some sort of dump... An analysis of equity mutual funds compared to bond-focused mutual funds could have a lot to say... I leave it as an exercise for the TradingView community. Feel free to tag me if you analyze anything regarding it! PS. Happy Dump Days as of now (The peak of the product chart), for the main indices are: DJI: Nov. 8, 2022 SPX: Nov. 10, 2022 NDQ: Oct. 25, 2022 Take a look at price action of the indices after that day if you are curious on how real prices translated from that day onwards. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
9
Energy ready for prime-time?An updated view Pattern taken from reverse symmetry. Elliott Waves Stochastic RSI Oscillators The 12 Month oscillator pushes everything upwards. Since the 3M oscillator is at it's top, we expect a short drop until mid 2023. It will be short because of the effect of the 1M oscillator as well as the 12M one. Oscillators tell us that it is probable for price of energy to drop until Q2 of 2023 and then begin it's rally. Energy could very well increase now. The ABC Elliott wave shown on the main chart is alarming. An alternate scenario is this. A 5-step Elliott wave. Either of them could play out. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DXY
by akikostas
2
Financial (in)stability mechanismsI have posted many times regarding volatility, especially the VVIX&VIX relationship. There are times when mechanisms need to activate to stabilize the economy, the psychology, the society. Recessions, wars, pandemics are periods that may justify such actions. It is wise for an investor to understand pressures and their direction. The motto "Don't fight the FED" and "Don't go against the trend" should be applied everywhere. A very rapid growth like in 2016 needed suppression, or else equities would have gone parabolic. Increasing yields makes growth harder. So the thought process back then was to suppress growth. I have some theories on why they wanted growth suppression. My ideas are extreme as they are, so I will try to put them into the suppressing field. After this parabolic growth that occured backstage, the recession nobody remembers ocurred. Yields suppress growth. Yields as a stability mechanism. Yield increases however can cause the opposite problem, money scarcity and liquidity problems. Yields cause recessions. Yields as an instability mechanism. _______________________________________________________ Now onto VIX. This year's recession was a time when financial stability had to occur to calm the markets. Back in 1929 we didn't have such mechanisms. The main chart, VVIX, shows us that there is substantial volatility management backstage. While I don't know the mechanisms for SPX and VIX stabilization, I have some theories. There are now massive hedge funds that can easily stabilize the equity/derivative market. VIX is a traded index, so hoarding contracts could in theory artificially change the VIX value. That is why I advised on volatility analysis by comparing VIX with volatility indicators. Hedge Funds (amongst other mechanisms) suppress volatility. Smart Money as a stability mechanism. I have posted before about the VVIX/VIX chart and how it can help us analyze SPX growth stability. So the question arises, how much and for how long have markets been manipulated? Surely in 1929 there was nothing one could do to stabilize the markets. That is why the recession was so deep and painful. We had no brakes. Manipulation/stabilization works in a consistent manner, when VIX peaks we suppress it. Suppression works by making VIX more predictable and less spiky. So inherently VIX manipulation decreases VVIX. With these charts we can see the stabilization mechanism in action. In the middle of the 2008 recession, in May-June we had this period when psychology briefly changed from pessimism to optimism. It is the denial phase of psychology. More about that in the "VIX | The effect on SPX" idea linked below. It is this vicious cycle during the VIX manipulation period that drags us further down inside the recession. VIX suppression cycle pulls economy into a vicious cycle. Stability mechanisms as instability mechanisms. _______________________________________________________ Onto some speculation: Perhaps we are in a long-term recession, since 2018. Again, look into "The Cake is a Lie" idea. Back in 2018 we were in a recession while equities were rapidly increasing. Now we are growing with equities dropping. This is nuts!!! Look at this VVIX/VIX chart comparison. In this chart I have hidden the price of VVIX/VIX and left just the EMA Ribbon. That is what we live through now. I drew a retracement from this specific point in time so as to better pinpoint the possible targets for VVIX/VIX. This chart suggests that we have never went through the crisis since 2018. I know this is crazy to say, but look at this chart below. RSI divergence confirms that. Perhaps the RSI of SPX correlates better to the VVIX/VIX chart. _______________________________________________________ Conclusion: So where does this leaves us? The fact that we have passed through two periods of upside down phenomena (2018 and 2021), when equities were increasing in a recession, and vice versa. This troubles me, as to how much is hidden. How big of a problem are we in and we have just not realized it yet. Moral of the story again? Don't believe what you are told and what you are shown. Don't listen to me as well. Do your own research. There may still be massive volatility ahead of us. VVIX is suppressed by more than 30%. If VVIX returns to normal levels ~120 and the VVIX/VIX targets are correct, this means that VIX will increase 3.5x from what it is now. As a number it makes sense because it takes us to the peak of the 2020 Black Swan. VIX has every possibility to go incredibly high. QE and Stabilization Mechanisms themselves have caused this fog. In our attempt to stabilize the economy, we have clouded our vision. The suppressing field will be shut off, on the day we have mastered ourselves. On the day we can prove, we no longer need it. And that day of transformation, I have it on good authority, is close at hand. -Dr. Breen
V
by akikostas