BTC GOLDEN CROSSBTC is having a rare golden MA cross, that is Bullish if you look at the charts... Price is going up
Fedmeeting
BTC FED Meeting!BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
Fed meeting on 1-Feb-2023 at 19:00 UTC
Looking for 25bp rate hike for potential bullish move.
BTC has had a run to almost 24k. But it's approach is quite tight like a triple tap in play.
Support levels marked in white for possible re-entry for Long via appropriate entry trigger.
Entry trigger could be bullish candle or bullish candlestick formation.
50MA 4h and 200MA 1D as guide.
But with BTC when it's hot, we don't always get support entries.
After Breakout level $25K (1D) we need break and retest for upside otherwise it's a level to target a short
via LTF (4h) break of structure.
If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
US30 SHORT POSITION!!!!!From my last posting I believe US30 Index is in the beginning phases of its Descend into 2023. Assuming that we are not going higher than 34K. After an initial drop from my supply line the chart has given us new confluence to re enter if the initial drop was missed. First we see a trade setting up at what is the local golden pocket, although this trade will not be as high probability it is an opportunity to add to the position. We can see an ascending broadening wedge pattern as well which has direct confluence with the Supply Zone given by the large institutional candle this morning. I'll be looking to add to my short posititon. Not financial advice.
SPDR S&P 500 ETFwe are channel trading/consolidation. and this will probably continue till the meetings coming up.
my main thesis is based off a few things. the up coming Jackson Hole meeting followed by Fed Jpow Friday. i believe we get under that 410 area. by Sept October. there is alot of factors influencing this, inflation, rate hikes, etc. 390 would be the area im looking for. i dont see us making a new 52wk low.
Hedge funds. from that 4300 are net short on the spx and cash heavy. more then normal. and this is why i also think we have a santa claus rally. we get the pull back in sept. sept and oct are the worst performing months. this pull back will bring you into a wonderful area of support at 390 and inflation keeps coming in at good clips. hedge funds are gonna say crap. inflations coming down. fed slows rate hikes. they will have to cover those short positions. and they can not go into the end of the year that cash heavy and that can bring you back to that resistance level . when hedge funds are usually this one sided. it usually doesnt work. look at august 2020 when they were in this same position. they were wrong and got completely rolled over. anyway. this gives traders tremendous opportunity.
On the longer term we have an inverse head and shoulders forming. the july 17 low being the head. even on the shorter time frime we have one and we are on the right shoulder right above the neck line around that 412/414 area. now i only point this out because its alittle interesting. some technical analysis .
fun fact- since 1950 the spy has never rallied pass the 50% fib retrace off a recession low and made a NEW low. just fun fact.
but the targted (oval- general area/zone) would be a long term buying opportunity if you missed the july 17th low.
or if you arnt fully invested it could be a buyable pullback imo. just my thoughts hope you like or got something out of it.
SPY forecast (2nd chance for long term entry)edit: we are channel trading/consolidation. and this will probably continue till the meetings coming up.
On the longer term we have an inverse head and shoulders forming. the july 17 low being the head. even on the shorter time frime we have one and we are on the right shoulder right above the neck line around that 412/414 area. now i only point this out because its alittle interesting. some technical analysis.
but my main thesis is based off the up coming jackson hole meeting followed by fed jpwow friday. i believe we get under that 410 area. by sept October. there is alot of factors which could change this. inflation. rate hikes etc. but trying to keep this short. 390 would be the lowest i see for now. i do not see us making new 52wk lows.
fun fact- since 1950 the spy has never rallied pass the 50% fib retrace off a recession low and made a NEW low. just fun fact.
but the targted (oval) would be a long term buy zone if you missed the july 17th low. or if you arnt fully invested it could be a buyable pullback imo. just my thoughts hope you like or learn something.
eth leaving out of ANGER wall street cheat sheet MUST WATCHeth is starting to show signs of capitulation on 4hr time frame . I love the 4hr because it can be a great tool to really see how the market is moving .. i see eth possibly coming back to 1275 area or higher before the next "big" drop
like or comment on the idea tell me what you think
BTC: FOMC IMPACT ON THE PRICE OF BTC!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Welcome to this exclusive BTC analysis. FOMC has had a huge impact on the price of BTC since the start of 2022. Here's my view on how can it be affected this time.
This event has the potential to change the course of risk markets (#BTC etc.) from bear to bull or to cause a capitulation event in risk, depending on the outcome.
In the previous two meetings, the FED hiked its rates and that would bring a positive outcome for BTC. The March 16 FOMC meeting marked a local bottom for BTC and after the announcement, we have seen a relief rally. The market is currently in a similar environment to the one created during the lead-up to the March FOMC meeting.
Markets are at critical levels, being ultimate support. US Dollar index, USDT Dominance is at important levels of resistance and BTC is at an important level of support from here we can expect a relief rally soon.
After the last two meetings, the BTC price shows a 20-25% bounce so if the same thing happens this time we might see a relief rally up to $45k-$48k in the next two weeks.
What do you think about this?
Share your views in the comment section.
If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow.
Thank You!
XAUUSD Gold : Launch to space? Or 1890 retest? 22.4 Jerome Powell, chairman of the FED yesterday basically confirmed a May rate hike.
But ask yourself seriously - Is inflation going to go away due to this? Will this save a bleeding economy?
Gold practically called the bluff on FED's comments AND the rising bond yields.
As you can see, post FED meeting we have the Gold keep the support trend-line since the start of the year.
Since breaking above the consolidation breakout , circled on the chart, Gold spiked up by about $70 , it is normal for a technical correction down to take place at such scenario, as we see with the price action now.
If the week closes above 1935-37 , which is the support trend-line since Jan 2022, the bull trend is kept and a new high will be in sight.
**A weekly close today below 1937-35 will confirm potential downside 1890 - Although this scenario is less likely, it is still technically possible.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow :D
I'll be posting daily Gold, WTI, BTC, Nasdaq, EURUSD and more with a special focus on WTI and Gold.
Thank you for the time to read and I'm always happy to hear suggestions about what you guys want to see more of and any questions of course :D
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPY the Bulls Are Back In Town...Hello Traders,
I hope you all are doing well. I just wanted to shoot a quick update for anyone a little shaken by the market or confused as to what's going on.
TLDR: Yes, there are still geopolitical concerns, but at the moment it's not important to the market, because we've already seen the response of the world and it has strengthened relations of NATO and basically blocked off Russia from World Trade and Financially. The Market's prefer hikes over inflation, and technical trading signals are still nearly perfect (as seen in above and below charts).
So we have our answer as to who's economy is really likely to crash.
Although the US would like to help more, there are limitations as to what we (the US) and other countries can do without sparking a Cold War or WW3, so the markets are pretty content that everyone is threading that needle.
Now, why did the market bounce off the fed announcements?
Many people without context assume that tapering and rate hikes are a bad thing for the markets; their thought process is that it makes valuations less attractive, due to more difficult borrowing for companies and consumers...
This idea isn't wrong, it's just that they're missing a few pieces of information in that logic.
First, the markets like policy that are good for the overall economy. Tapering and hikes will help fight inflation; monetary tightening is a signal that the Fed believes the economy is on firm footing. That is a good thing. The market easily prefers hikes over inflation worries.
Second, historically, while stocks tend to fall the month following rate hikes, they typically end the year up around 5%.
Lastly, there is progress on the geopolitical front. The World has condemned Russia's leader's actions; as we see a constructive movement in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, signs from China that it will roll back its broad regulatory crackdown and play a little nicer with the rest of the world.
We do also predict gas prices to continue in a downward spiral and fall substantially in the coming months due to the panic buying subsiding, along with other geopolitical and psychological factors, which need not go into too much detail on.
(It's important to note for those unfamiliar, the US is the #1 producer of crude oil, with about 20% of global supply, Saudis at around 12%, Russia 11%, and Canada at 6%). As such, the US is not reliant on Russia for oil; unfortunately, some of our allies are, to some extent.
The Chart
As a technical trader, that was a lot of fundamental analysis. Sometimes it's good to have both, especially when catalysts are often the driver on big movers. As I mentioned in my previous posts, technical trading has been on-point. Almost to the penny.
On Weds, March 16th, SPY gapped up, perhaps on the positive geopolitical news mentioned. Now we're sitting on a trend reversal and (yet again) a retest of the 200MA. Honestly, I think we will hang around the 200MA even if we do break to the upside, at least for a month or two as I had predicted back in January (see below) .
Please see for references.
January.
If you appreciated this please: Like, support, share, follow.
Sincerely,
Mike
(UPRIGHT Trading)
BTCUSDT - Trying to Find DirectionBTCUSDT seems to be trading in a range and trying to find direction. Support and resistance levels are marked on the chart.
Upcoming FED meeting will be the key in identifying the direction of movement. Everyone seems to focus on the interest rate hike (25 or 50 points) and it is most likely priced in by now. Therefore, the amount of increase might not have much of an affect on the markets.
Our focus will be on what the FED does with its BALANCE SHEET (key data to focus on from the meeting). If FED decides to reduce their balance sheet and starts selling assets, would expect a downward movement in the overall market regardless of a rate hike or not.
Not a financial advice and please do your own DD.
Thank you for your support.
EUR/USD: Various factors that will drag it closer to parityHello, everyone!
Global view on EUR/USD. It will sink to 1.10 and here is why:
1) Fed meeting results will make dollar king again
2) Daily Double-top formation is not finished yet
3) Bearish flag breakout
4) Same pattern after Fed meeting at November. Consolidation before the meeting, retest of a trendline and breakout after.
EUR/USD is very sensible to round numbers, so first target is 1.11 and after its breakout we can see Double-top target reached.
The trade is mediun-term, so I reccomend to put SL above the trendline.
DXY: FED dayHi everyone,
Since May-June this year DXY has been strenghtening.
To be precise the run commenced during the 47th G7 Summit that was held from 11 to 13 June in Cornwall, England.
The uptrend unfolded a rising wedge that was breached to the upside during the 2nd half of November.
On Nov.24th the Index paused and is now consolidating in a range between 97 and 96.
Focus on the intersecation between upper trendline of the rising wedge and the supporting level at 96 which falls on December 21st.
ATTENTION: the above view is subordinated to the reaction that the US dollar will have after the meeting of the Fed which will end today.
Further information will be provided over time.
Thank you and best of luck!
Cozzamara
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Aussie slips as retail sales slideThe Australian dollar is in negative territory for a second straight day. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7727, down 0.43% on the day.
Australia's retail sales started off 2o21 on a decidedly sour note, as the January report came in at -1.1%, much worse than the street consensus of +0.6%. The decline is attributable to Covid restrictions, which had a negative impact on consumer spending. The Aussie is also feeling pressure from the geopolitical front, as a tense meeting in Alaska between senior US and Chinese officials is weighing on investors' risk appetite. Add to this mix higher US Treasury yields, and it's no surprise that the Australian dollar is headed for a disappointing end to the trading week.
The Federal Reserve sent the markets a dovish message at its policy meeting on Wednesday, reiterating that it had no plans to raise interest rates before 2023. The US dollar dipped after the Fed meeting, but had little trouble erasing these losses. AUD/USD has posted considerable losses since Thursday's Fed meeting.
The catalyst for the recent US dollar strength has been rising US yields, and investors were treated to another rise in yields on Thursday. The bond market has been edgy all week, and an outstanding manufacturing reading was enough to cause a strong selloff in US bonds. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index soared to 51.8 in February, up from 23.1 and its highest level in some 48 years. This signals higher input costs, and US yields took off in response. The US 10-year rose to 1.72%, while the 30-year rose to 2.47%, boosting the US currency.
Bought of U.S. Dollar for FED interest rate meeting!!!In this analysis, I bought U.SL Dollar because for the pressure of the U.S. economic, we hope fundamentally that U.S. Dollar is going to the recovery and we hope a bullish candlestick.
Also to show you, I put 2 entry for buy order limit with a considerable SL with a good profit!!!
Okay, today, we hope that U.S Dollar it's going to up for fundamentals about the interest rate.
The first entry for buy order limit is in the $104.70 with the SL at $104.50 (20 pips) and take profit forecast of $105.34 (64 pips)
The second entry for buyr oder limit is in the $104.54 with the SL at $104.40 (14 pips) and take profit forecast of $105.34 (79 pips)
So, we hope that a big manipulation to liquidated long positon in the price market that amateurs put position to be liquidated and activated buy order limit that was putting below of the price market, that is my own strategy and fundamental to get benefit of the market.
Now, I going to invest just 0.02 lots in the price entry!!
Good luck!!!
In the next days we are going to updated the analysis of this par, a long time that I do not analyze this par than better to trade Euros.
Overview: FED meeting today about the interest rate!!!Today, fundamentally, it's a important day for the U.S. Dollar. So, we hope between the short-term and medium-term a recuperation of the U.S. economic. Because, if you noticed it, the indicators of all U.S. economical calendar showing a recovery of the economy in the unemployment, aid, aid financial, and more that Federal Government want to help and support unemployment and companies.
Keys Fundamentals:
1. Dollar down ahead of FED meeting
2. Dollar edges lower; FED meetin looms large
3. The FED meeting is the main event in town, being the central bank's first get together since FED Chairman Jerome Powell announced a more relaxed approach to inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium in late August.
4. Francesco Pesole wrote in the research note that Federal Reserve latest policy shift has fueled expectations that rates will stay lower for longer until 2028 to get a target to 2%. and is therefore offereing-and will likely continue offer in the foreseenble future-a reason to stick to US Dollar shorts position and hold the American currency a sell-the-rally approach on any US Dollar signs of reprise.
So, I believe that United States it's going to reprise the economic and there open up the economic and businness commerce that was in bad conditions of the covid-19, we hope to medium term a recuperation of the U.S. Dollar against the enemy par.
Also guys, the position in short was activated in hours of the night on my country Puerto Rico at 3 a.m. New York's time.
So, good luck of this trade!!!
Still Alert on the Euro crash!!! Technical Analysis Explained!!!Hello, in this analysis, the Euro it's in the distribution zone, so, I add a sell order limit at $1.1877 USD to entry in the sell of over 300 pips.
Now, in weekly we are so higher and Euro needs to make a correction approximately to leave at $1.15 USD as support on weekly!!!
This is a screenshot of H4 timeframe about the RSI, let's me explain a thing. The RSI making for the days higher lower, that indicator show a possible correction so deeper to take benefit of this crash!!!
Now, on H4 timeframe we are into his descendent triangle,it's a bearish chartist pattern
The only that I hope is that Euro goes to up a little to activate my sell order limit at $1.1877, my SL is localized at $1.1918 USD and obviously my target profit is $1.1549 USD approximately, it's 330 pips.
Fundamentals Keys:
1. U.S. Dollar softer as sentiment recovers on vaccine hopes and deals.
2. The dollar dipped agains riskier currencies on Tuesday as hopes for a covid-19 vaccine and big corporate deals improved investor appetite for assets such as the Yuan and the Euro
3. Traders said the currency look vulnerable as the European Union warns a collapse trade talks and propel the United Kingdom towards a messy Brexit, said Boris Johnson
4. Tomorrow it's a FED meeting about the U.S, monetary policy and disccussion of the U.S. interest rate.
5. The FED meeting will be its first since FED Chariman Jerome Powell unveiled a shift toward greater tolerance of inflation, effectively pledging to keep interest ratess low for lower.
Basically, we hope that United States is into the recuperation, about the problems of the United Kingdom and European Union. We look that US Dollar is bullish, Euro is bullish agains the Sterling Pound and Sterling Pound is bearish. So, we hope that analyze to suppport you!!!
USD/JPY has continued in sell (Short Position)In this technical analysis. In H1 timeframe we see that USD/JPY it's continued to bearish trend in H1 timeframe. But ussing the Izzi Money strategies, we could to pick down 100 pips of profit. So, I put a sell order limit at $107.24 at pick up my take profit at $106.12. So, that is my target profit, but following the trend is continue bearish. And also, today there are a lot news of US, especially the FED meeting that they will discuss the interest rate, and that it's an indicator of the economy. This it'w will be a great impact of this par.
FED wants strong USD or not???FED wants strong USD or not???
Tomorrow don't miss FED Meeting event!
Watch out FX:EURUSD !!!
Holiday Shortened Week Will See Fireworks in S&P 500This brief projection is based on a full study of the current Intermediate Wave 1 I am tracking for the S&P 500 index. We will see upward movement to begin the week with a top in the afternoon on July 2, 2019. We will likely drop 5-10 points into the close on this day.
The light blue numbers with parentheses around them represent each wave's end point for the Minuette waves. These projections are likely to be the most accurate on this projection chart.
The orange roman numeral 4 with a circle around it represents the projected end point for Minute wave 4. This is relatively in place, but likely to change based on the actual movement experienced through Minute wave 3 (orange roman numeral with circle around it).
The ultimate top for Intermediate wave 1 is currently projected to occur in the afternoon on July 8, 2019 with a peak around 3048-3064. This would mean a new all time high is set to occur (likely multiple times between now and then). In trying to apply real world events to a reason for a top and then a decline would likely revolve around the Fed. They will most likely NOT cut interest rates as many expect. They may however leave the door open for cuts as necessary in the future. This could see the index pullback over a total of 8 trading days with a bottom around 2875.04.
I am forecasting Intermediate wave 3 to be incredibly strong and last for up to 2 months or around the time of the 2020 US government fiscal year begins. It would be earnings season which could be the reason for a rising market (even if it is not fundamentally warranted). The end of the 2019/beginning of 2020 fiscal year could likely lead to a partisan fight in DC over what the budget should look like especially in a pre-election year.
This is as far out as I plan to forecast for now, and will adjust as necessary. I am bullish on the market until the second quarter next year. I foresee a major recession beginning next year well before the 2020 election.
EURUSD WAVE ANALYSIS 19 JUN 19Hello Traders,
Price action is not much interesting on this pair, Still moving on sideways only. As per wave analysis corrective B wave not yet complete, One more leg downside is possible upto 1.1175 to 1.1160 support zone.
Fed meeting also quite interesting factor,we will check out the technical's to work or not.
GBPUSD WAVE ANALYSIS 17 JUN 19HELLO TRADERS,
Last Week GBPUSD fell below our support level of 1.2605, Price action showing more downside on Pound. As per my Wave Analysis GBPUSD trading on Corrective ABC pattern on short term. Ahead of FED meeting pound fell to 1.2530 level to finish this wave B of this corrective structure.
GOLD: wasn't the FED bullish on US Economy?Hi Guys,
at its meeting of the 1st of August (X) the FED did not increase interest rates but its accompanying statements in the following 16 days became more and more hawkish and value dropped to 1160 (A). Price bounced and, following the release of the FED Minutes, it formed a ZigZag to test resistence (B).
What happened next is a combined horizontal pattern which ended with the FED Meeting of the 26th of September which raised its key interest rate for the third time in 2018 and signaled one more hike in 2018, most likely in December stating that the "accomodative" era is over (C).
And from C the precious metal has been rising up to X again.
Hope you like.
Thank you for your attention, and please share your views and comments. Any idea is a contribution for a better understanding of The Matrix.
Good Night!
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Thank you for following and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
