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Fedratehike

Potential Market Reversal by May 2024Overview I can't shake the feeling that a large market correction is around the corner and at the same time the market contradicts my sentiments by appearing stronger every day. So I decided to investigate the 1 Year Treasury Note ( TVC:US01Y ) which is directly affected by Fed Rates to see how the market correlated to those changes in the past. What I found leads me to believe that a steep -- but temporary -- correction is approaching between late March and early May 2024. Historical Data (Feb 2016-Feb 2024) While it may not always feel like it, the stock market appears to have an overall bullish affinity even during economic struggle such as can be seen during the pandemic of 2020. After an average of three FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings, a sharp correction took place within the FOMC meeting range or shortly following the third meeting. This is the case for all but the fourth window which actually manifested a reversal to what has become the rally we are experiencing today. The chart above compares the TVC:US01Y (Top) to the SP:SPX (Bottom Left) and TVC:DJI (Bottom Right). I interpreted this data as potentially two truths: 1) Institutional investors retreat during transitional periods then resurface when the outlook is more clear, typically reigniting the previous trend despite an overall trend change within Fed rates. 2) Fed rate changes are a precursor for market reversals. While not the only factor, they appear to hold a significant weight that if supported could lead to a reverse in market trajectory as can be seen after the third and fourth window of FOMC meetings. **I only accounted for FOMC meetings where the 1 Year Treasury Note experienced significant trend changes** Market Projections I do not believe an apocalyptic correction is coming, but I do believe there will be a significant dip across the board following one of the next two consecutive FOMC meetings. The current dates for those meetings are March 19-20 and April 30 - May 1, 2024. It is my opinion that the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels serve as a good opportunity to enter a position should a correction occur. However, technical indicators should be closely watched for signs of a recovery before entering any positions.
DJ:DJIShort
by Shepherd_Investor
4
GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Plan For FED RATE DECISION 🥇 Next week, on Wednesday, we are expecting FED Interest Rate Decision. Here are potential scenarios for Gold: Bullish If the price breaks and closes above 1987 daily resistance, it will be a strong bullish signal. A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 2000 level then. Bearish If the price breaks and closes below 1960 support, it will lead to a further bearish continuation. Next goal will be 1940 Wait for a breakout, that will be your best confirmation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VasilyTrader
11
AUDUSD Watch: Key Level Break and Lower Low, Wait for a PullbackCheck out my previous post "Breaking Down The FX Market: What You Need To Know" for a comprehensive video analysis. The AUDUSD has been in a bit of a tricky situation lately, as price has broken a key level and made a lower low. This has traders wondering where the pair may be headed next. However, before jumping in, it's important to wait for a pullback and not chase price. With the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision, it's important to keep a close eye on the market and be cautious in your trades. The FED is expected to raise interest rates, which could have a significant impact on the currency markets. This means that traders should be paying close attention to the market developments and be prepared for any potential volatility. By being patient and waiting for a pullback, traders can better position themselves for success in the AUDUSD market.
Short
by natron
MSFT: Bearish channel drive?!Microsoft Short Term - We look to Sell at 238.54 (stop at 249.55) Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward. Further downside is expected. Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return. Our profit targets will be 211.20 and 200.00 Resistance: 240.00 / 292.00 / 317.00 Support: 219.00 / 200.00 / 190.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by VantageMarkets
UPDATED DETAIL OF RALLY CONCEPT BTCAll in all it's not looking good for the bulls, but there is a case to be made for a stronger rally. It’s a tough upside down one but there’s a valid thesis. Basically BoE buying bonds now, pivoting… currency wars…energy crisis…. feds MAY pivot for the wrong reasons, bad reasons, namely because of systemic risk. In this case FEDS would be effectively short term capitulating on inflation and there could be a flight from a rapidly inflating dollar into equities, of which deflationary assets like Bitcoin could get crowded and blow off. It’s a marginal scenario but it’s in the cards as we see nations risking default, currencies like GBP and EURO collapsing, and an environment of negative real interest rates. It would ultimately be a disaster over all, but it could lead to a powerful relatively short lived push for Bitcoin. Plunge protection rescued the global financial markets from a complete meltdown on Wednesday with margin calls and liquidation notices sent out on of UK’s long dated bond backed pension funds representing about 2/3 value of UK’s 1.5 TN Sterling Investment funds ….. Markets were possibly something like moments away from a 2008 scenario. (see below for CNBC coverage) With inflation running rampant in developed nations and the bond markets getting routed: - IF CPI Oct 13 shows US is finally cooling (NOT suggested by core PCE numbers today, labor market tightening rather than loosening and overall strong economic data points in the US) - AND Feds decide to take a wiat and see with 50 bps to give other economies a chance to breathe in order to avoid system risks, THEN we could see something like a short lived rally that could extend to end of year. www.cnbc.com Some quick and easy fun to follow refernces: youtu.be youtu.be
by Linneaus
1
NASDAQ, 21ST SEPT MEETING ANALYSIS!!its hard to predict what am i predicting now, its somewhat related to speculating, what am i saying is that due to FED's meeting, the market will react negatively and reach around 11520. but far enough who knows what will it be declared in the meeting so far. but i am saying such statement because just because of 'hike news' the market reacted negatively, so if FED posts any good news too, still the public will make out there positions, and after making there positions, that potential will be generated to go in a bull run. so end of this week, we could see the start of NASDAQ'S BULL RUN!! FURTHER ON, DO EVEN CHECK MY NIFTY'S BULL RUN ANALYSIS OF THIS MONTH!
NASDAQ:NDX
by raghavchoudhary2016
2
Winter is Coming to Financial MarketsWTI crude oil is currently trading at $83 a barrel. Who would have thought that with OPEC cutting oil production and Russia shutting down natural gas distribution, petroleum would be $10 cheaper than when the Ukraine War first started? Winter is coming to global economy. And financial markets everywhere would be bracing for a deep freeze in the coming months. On Wednesday September 14th, I will be delivering a keynote speech titled “Option Strategies Focusing on Global Crises” at the trading floor of CBOE Global Markets (Chicago Board Option Exchange). Those who follow my writings on TradingView know that I first unveil “Event Driven Strategy Focusing on Global Crisis” three months ago, in this writing on June 7th. I warned my readers of the upcoming bear market on June 22nd. On July 3rd, “Have Gasoline Price Already Peaked” became the No. 1 trade idea featured in TradingView Weekly newsletter. “Market Impact of the US Mid-term Elections” was selected as an “Editors’ Picks” on August 17th. TradingView Weekly newsletter with the title “Midterms are Coming” were emailed to millions of subscribers including you and me. On August 29th, “The Great Wall Street Repricing” became my 7th “Editors’ Picks” trade ideas, and made it to TradingView Weekly for the 3rd time. If you are in Chicago next Wednesday, it would be great to meet up in person. Besides the seminar, you could observe the market close bell ringing and mingle with other traders in our networking cocktail party. If you aren’t in Chicago, you could join us online. Details for event registration could be found at my Twitter (please check my account profile). To comply with House Rules, I could not disclose more information here. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Editors' picks
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
27
The Great Wall Street RepricingEquity Indexes: CME Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), Micro Russell 2000 ( CME_MINI:M2K1! ) On August 26th, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell declared to forcefully fight the worst inflation in 40 years. He warned that the Fed would continue raising interest rates, even if it would cause "some pain" to the U.S. economy. In an eight-minute speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Chairman Powell said that higher rates could persist "for some time." "While higher interest rates, slower growth and weak labor market conditions will lower inflation, they will also cause some pain to households and businesses," he said. "These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But failure to restore price stability will mean even greater suffering.” "Price stability is the responsibility of the Fed and the cornerstone of our economy," he said. "Without price stability, the economy doesn't work for anyone." Stock market fell immediately in response to the Fed’s hawkish tone. By the end of the day, the Dow plunged over 1000 points, or 3.03%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 tumbled 4% and 4.4%, respectively. Russell 2000 closed below the 1900 mark, down by 3.3%. A New Game in Town In the past decade, US capital market operated under the assumptions of low interest rate and low inflation rate. They have been effectively overturned. In addition, we also face heightened geopolitical risks in Europe and supply chain bottleneck in the aftermath of a global pandemic. In a new investment regime, all financial assets would go through market repricing. To navigate this new paradigm with rising interest rates and high inflation, we will launch a series on the repricing across major asset classes in this new regime. This week, we deep dive into the repricing of US equity index. Upcoming stories will follow up on interest rates, foreign exchange, energy, metal, agricultural commodities among others. We will also re-visit our previous trade ideas whenever appropriate in this series. Equity Indexes Will Decline Due to Higher Cost of Capital The discounted cash flow (DCF) pricing theory states that stock price is the present value (PV) of expected future cash flows discounted by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Let me illustrate this concept using a $1 million payment, to be received in five years. • For a company with excellent credit score, we could use Moody's Aaa Corporate Bond Yield as our WACC. • Moody’s Aaa bond yield is quoted at 4.18% today, up from 2.52% a year ago. • PV discounted by a 2.52% WACC is $883K. PV with a 4.18% WACC is $815K. • When the cost of capital goes up, present value drops by 7.7%. Fed rate hikes would raise borrowing cost for all US corporations. Therefore, stock prices across the market should decline due to a higher cost of capital, other things equal. Last Thursday, in an interview with CNBC, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard claimed that his year-end target Fed Funds rate is 3.75%-4.00%. After Powell’s hawkish statement, I have good reasons to believe that Fed Funds rate would reach 4.50%-5.00% by the end of 2023 and stay at that level for at least a year. Triple-A corporate bond yield is usually 200 basis points higher than the risk-free Fed Funds rate. Going back to our $1 million example, A 7% WACC would yield a PV of $713K. This represents a 12.5% discount from the current PV of $815K. Of the 500 companies in the S&P index, only two have Triple-A rating. Nineteen are rated from AA- to AA+. And 119 are rated from A- to A+. This indicates that the borrowing costs for S&P component companies are higher than the Aaa bond yield. They could face a bigger hit in a stock market repricing. Based on this logic, I expressed my view by shorting US stock index futures on June 22nd, as in my story titled Bear Market is Far from Over . What about smaller companies, such as those in the Russell 2000? They usually have lower credit ratings and higher borrowing costs. Moody’s Baa Corporate Bond Yield is 5.13%, nearly 100 basis points higher than the Aaa yield. One year ago, it was 3.31%. If we assume an 8% WACC for Russell 2000 and go through the same exercise, the $1 million future cash flow will have a PV of $681K, down 13% from current level. Up to this point, we focus on just one factor, a higher borrowing cost. In an economic downturn, companies would incur lower revenue and lower cash flow. Smaller companies could be impacted more significantly. Let’s further assume that our $1 million in five years will be down by 10%, to $900K. With an 8% WACC, the PV is now $613K, down 25% from current level. With double hit from higher borrowing cost and lower expected cash flow, Russell 2000 is more vulnerable to a repricing risk compared to S&P 500. In addition, Russell 2000 is overpriced with a trailing price earnings ratio (P/E) of 66.78, compared to a 22.84 P/E for S&P 500. I further expressed this view by shorting CME Micro Russell 2000 (M2KZ2), as in my story “A Tale of Two Americas” on August 7th. Friday, Russell fell 65 points (-3.3%) and closed below 1900 points. With three more possible rate hikes before the December contract expires, there might be some room for the Small-Cap index to fall. My view on shorting Russell stands. Financial market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odds of success in managing risk. I suggest leveraging real-time market data for a better gauge of market situation. Tradingview users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:M2K1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
34
EW count $ES1! with Predictions BONUS yield curve inversionCME_MINI:ES1! Hello all! Just thought I would share my work here today for all those EW analysis junkies to critique. Along with some commentary on current market/geopolitical/economic conditions and where I think we are headed. With recession on the horizon like pink clouds in the morning for a sailor, we have to get our work (profits) in and get out of the water before the storm wipes us out. Just like the sailor our work should be done quickly as there will be little time to reel in our catch. There are warning signs abundant that our global economy is coming to a crossroads of debt, supply/demand shock, and geographic positioning for goods. In my view China has little incentive to get manufacturing back online, just as Russia needs to "fix" it's pipelines all at once. The globe of power is quickly showing it's fault lines. (Saudi Arabia transferring payment to yuan?) Supply is low as Americans (like me) sit at home on their computers providing endless information through the air-waves and fiber-optic cables. We have become a soft nation through decades relatively peaceful times. We demand high pay and produce less physical or tangible goods, while buying up the worlds supply. We have had easy financial conditions that are begging to be repaid somehow. With debt over our heads (Debt>GDP) our puppet masters have used this pandemic to engineer a cheaper way to pay it down. Inflation = more dollars today to pay a fixed rate debt that is less than inflation. Flooding the economy with digital greenbacks is a win/win/risk. The risk here is that we let inflation get out of control and everyone is chasing the dollar leading to evermore inflation. I.e. If I sell bread at the market and know that each week my supplies are increasing at an exponential rate I will raise my prices accordingly, leading to my customers to ask for raises. Who, let's say, work at the grain fields, leading to higher grain prices; creating an inflation loop that leaves all participants with a increasingly worthless tender. This is why it is so important for the Fed to speak out ahead of inflation and keep expectations in check. If the Fed can curb that inflation cycle in our mentals then I may only raise my prices to the expected inflation target and no more, effectively putting an inflationary cap on all goods and services of all participants in our great economy. Now with that said, we have a lot of work to do to right this great ship and sail away from the depression storm. The smart money markets believe it is too late and the fed waited too long to correct. (As I said, I believe it was intentional.) The yield curve inverted in June and is a record setting inversion. Here is how the SPX reacted since the 80s to 2-10s inversions. As you can see some inversions foreran the markets collapse by months while sometimes the drop coincided with the inversion and in 2006 we actually had an increase of almost 15%! while the curve inverted before dropping around 55%. 2000 being the worse with a rally after 35% drop just to see another 30% drop into 2002/2003 If recent history has taught us anything; you are playing with fire the longer you stay in this market... but history has little to say about today, which I would point to the comp pandemic which I will have to compare next time to the Spanish Flu pandemic in Pt. II. My final question is, "we are seemingly already in a recession (although the powers that be are trying their best to redefine "recession"), is this drop that we have endured the end or do we see something greater as the historic yield curve inversion is pointing to? Here are my near term predictions with EW counts and demand/supply zones that I am watching. Happy Friday!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ZaphodBeebz
The Real Cost of Fed Rate HikesCBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on July 26-27. Market widely expects a 75-basis-points (bps) Fed Funds rate increase, from current target of 1.50%-1.75% to 2.25%-2.50%. The call for a 100-point hike, while still feasible, is weakened after U.S. gasoline price dropped 70 cents per gallon in the past month. New data hints that the runaway inflation may be contained. Federal funds Rate is the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow or lend excess reserves overnight. It is the most important global interest rate benchmark, as it directly or indirectly influences the borrowing cost for governments, corporations, and households. By the end of July, Fed Funds would have gone up by 2.25% (assuming 75 bps hike in July) from zero before March. The Fed is not afraid of raising rate even higher until inflation moves back to its 2% policy target. How much will a higher interest rate cost for government, business, or household? I will illustrate the impact of 100bps rate increase in this analysis. All data comes from either the Fed or USdebtclock.org, unless otherwise noted. Total Debt : By the end of Q1 2022, the total debt outstanding in the U.S. by both public and private sectors is $90.1 trillion. Mind-boggling. What does the number mean? • U.S. GDP was $23.0 trillion in 2021. Debt-to-GDP ratio is 3.92. It would take all Americans four years to pay off their debt, without spending or paying interest. • US population is 332,403,650 as of January 2022 per US Census Bureau. Debt per capita is $270,949. Each time a baby is born, he or she already owes more than a quarter million dollar. US National Debt : $30.6 trillion based on USdebtclock.org real-time calculation. This is just the debt owed by Federal government and various federal agencies. • National Debt to GDP ratio: 133%. • Federal tax revenue is estimated at $4.4 trillion in 2022. If our government just levies taxes and does nothing else, it will take seven years to pay off the debt. • Federal budget is $6.0 trillion in 2022, with budget deficit running at $1.6 trillion. Interest on debt is $440 billion, the fourth largest budget item. If interest rate goes up 100 bps across the yield curve, federal government will have to come up with $306 billion extra to service the debt. • Federal budget in 2022: $6.0 trillion o budget deficit $1.6 trillion o Interest on debt $440 billion (4th largest budget item) o Remark: $306 billion extra to service the debt, if interest rate goes up by 100bps • When all the rate hikes are over, annual debt interest payment could be over $1.0 trillion. It would become the 3rd largest budget item, behind Medicare ($1.4 trillion), Social Security ($1.0 trillion) and ahead of Defense ($751 billion)! State and Local Government debt : $3.3 trillion, of which $2.1 trillion from state governments and $1.2 trillion from local governments. • If interest rate goes up by 100 bps, state and local governments will have to come up with $33 billion extra to service their debt. • We may expect tax hikes from state and local governments, while public services may be cut back at the same time. US Corporate Debt : $11 trillion, which includes all debt issued by non-financial corporations domiciled in the U.S. • If interest rate goes up by 100 bps, American businesses will have to come up with $110 billion extra to service their debt. • We may expect higher prices for goods and services, as businesses pass on the interest cost to consumers. • Companies with high debt ratio may increase the chance of delinquency. US Household Debt : $23.5 trillion. This includes mortgage, auto loan, credit card loan and student loan, etc. • Personal debt per citizen is $70,304. If interest rate goes up by 100 bps, each person will have to come up with $703 extra a year to service their debt. • American families are fighting with a higher cost-of-living on multiple fronts. If the U.S. falls into a recession, their financial situation will worsen significantly. • Mortgage delinquency is expected to rise significantly. The remainder, approximately $21 trillion, is outstanding balance of credit instruments issued by banks and other financial institutions. Believe it or not, we have only just scrubbed the surface of our mounting debt problem. Most government liabilities are unfunded or underfunded. Each year, the Federal Government borrows new money to pay off the maturing debt. Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are pay-as-you-go programs. Government taxes current workers to pay for the benefits of retirees, without any money saving up for current workers. No one has a crystal ball if the benefits are still there when they reach retirement. With such a depressing future ahead of us, are there any trading opportunities? The answer is yes. I am counting on the inverted yield curve to return to historical normal. Yield curve plots the interest rates on government bonds with different maturity dates, notably three-month Treasury Bills, two-year and 10-year Treasury Notes, 15-year and 30-year Treasury Bonds. Bond investors expect to be paid more for locking up their money for a long stretch, so interest rates on long-term debt are higher than those on short-term. Plotted out on a chart, the various yields for bonds create an upward sloping line. Sometimes short-term rates rise above long-term ones. That negative relationship is called yield curve inversion. An inversion has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century, so it’s seen as a leading indicator of economic downturn. On July 21st, the yield on two-year Treasury notes stood at 3.00 percent, above the 2.91 percent yield on 10-year notes. By comparison, two-year yields were one percentage point lower than the 10-year yields a year ago. Why are we seeing yield curve inversion now? Short-term yield directly responded to Fed rate hikes. It has gone up 225 bps in five months. Longer term yields are determined by credit market supply and demand. The prospect of an upcoming recession held off lending by businesses and households alike, keeping the yields relatively stable. In my opinion, yield curve inversion could not sustain for long. Borrowers would flock to lower rate debt, pushing up demand for longer term credit. Market force would revert the yield curve to a normal one with interest rates on long-term debts higher than those on short-term ones. Are there any instruments we could leverage to trade the reversal of yield curve inversion? Long the Spread of CBOT Micro 10-Year Yield (10Y) and 2-Year Yield (2YY) . Traditional Treasury Futures are quoted in Treasury Notes price, which can be viewed as the present value of future payments that bondholder will receive – interest payment every six months and the return of principal at par value at maturity. Micro Yield Futures are more intuitive. They are quoted in yield directly. On July 22nd, August 10Y Yield Futures (10YQ2) was settled at 2.819. August 2Y Yield Futures (2YYQ2) was settled at 3.06. The 10Y-2Y spread is -0.241. The 10Y-2Y spread has been positive in recent years. It turned negative in the beginning of July as we experienced the inverted yield curve. I expect the spread to return to historic normal - a positive number, in the coming months. To trade Micro Yield futures, margins are $240 for 10Y and $330 for 2YY. A long spread can be constructed by a Long 10Y and a Short 2YY positions. The great thing about a spread trade lies with the fact that you don’t have to be right in predicting the direction of interest rates. Spread will be widened if 10Y rises faster than 2YY. Even in a falling rate environment, if 10Y fell less than 2YY, the spread will be enlarged too. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
📊BTC and FED RATE: is it better to hike? Crypto mythbusters!Some experts use such rules as hiking rate = bear market and falling rate = bull market but if we compare the fed rate with the BTC price we can see that the price is not always follow this rule. Trully say in most cases it don`t. Let's dive deeper into it! ______________ 📊THE BULL MARKETS: 1️⃣ 2015-2017 – the rate is growing. 2️⃣ 2018-2019 - the rate isn`t growing but still high. 3️⃣ 2020-2021 - the rate is 0 and market is growing. In 2 out of 3 cases the market is growing when the rate is high. At the end if we compare two Bull markets of 2017 and 2021 there is more massive and longer growth was at 2017 when the rate was hicking. ______________ 📊THE BEAR MARKETS: 1️⃣ 2017-2018 - the rate is growing and market is falling. Actually, it can happen because of the lack of buyers. It was the biggest BTC bullrun so the hicking rate is not the main reason. 2️⃣ 2019-2020 - the rate is falling and price is falling too. 3️⃣ 2021-2022 - the rate is growing but the price is falling. In 2 out of 3 cases the hicking of the rate push the price lower but as we have already identified the 1st bear market of 2017-2018 had to happen after the biggest bull market. 🚩Why the market can fall this time? We had the case of Do Kwon and Luna, UST. Additionally, the stock market push the price of crypto lower. This 2 thing caused the extreme fear at the market and forced retail traders to sell. 🏁Finally, we can say that this pattern is unclear and in most cases work against the rule "hicking rate = bear market". Traders, what do you think about this patterns of the FED rate and BTC price? Maybe we need to use it with other aproaches such as inflation rate, money supply etc together to make a succesfull fundamental analysis? Write your thoughts in the comments. 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Yuriy_Bishko
3
$TWO - REIT getting slammed with Rate Hikes / Bearish Bearish below $15 Looking to short it if it breaks support zone. Good Dividends but unsure if it's worth buying at support level. Swing Idea: 1. Short below $15 / Cover over $15.50 OR 2. Buy at support level and write a cover call when it gets to resistance level I think it will fall more as the fed rate hikes will impact all the REIT. I will monitor next week to see watch the daily chart. Only issue I have with TWO is they had a reverse split and have not been doing well. If it continues to fall in price, I think another reverse split will happen. Which is why I am bearish. If you're an expert with REITS - please comment and advise with your thoughts on it. Thanks!
NYSE:TWO
by work1411
FED rate decision vs technical analysisThe USD/JPY is currently in a weak symmetrical triangle pattern, this is also coincidentally where the 25 MA and the 13 MA look like they will be crossing over in the near future (I would moreover say 13 MA crossing above the 25 MA, indicating a bullish play). Also, the Coppock curve is positive, but is slowly reaching prior resistance, so this could mean a potential rebound if a bullish breakthrough occurs. However, a bullish breakthrough seems more likely since the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement line is providing support to the currency pair. On the other hand, the FED interest rate decision is tomorrow. So, if the volatility is high and there is a bullish breakthrough, I would be expecting it to be very short-term. If there is a bearish breakthrough, then I would be expecting it to be short-medium term.
by BlackbearTrader
EUR/USD Triangle After hitting our first TP on Friday (1.126) the pair is back trading inside the triangle after it it has recovered from the bearish breakout which didn't last long and therefore lost its significance. The main reasons behind this large recovery are : 1- Markets expecting the Fed to deliver a dovish statement on its last meeting in 2018. 2- EU and Italy reaching a deal on the country's budget. The triangle's range is becoming narrow and I expect a breakout after the Fed.. Any signal of a delay in 2019 rate hikes can send EUR/USD to 1.1445,1.147 and 1.15 in extension.
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Rising wedge, End of USD Bull trend ?I just spotted a rising wedge on the DXY weekly chart which started with the dollar uptrend in early summer. As concerns over slower global growth increase over time , the Fed may shift its forward guidance and turn more dovish on its last 2018 meeting in the next few days. Combined, this bearish chart formation and maybe a more dovish tone from the Fed might end the USD bull trend. Breaking the lower slope of the wedge will be a confirmation signal of a reversal.
TVC:DXY
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
The Fiat Experiment. Now Entering a New Massive Bubble. Hold on.The chart mostly speaks for itself, but.. My Hypothesis: Signal 1: The Fed drastically lowers the interest rates. Money supply increases. Stocks inevitably go up due to there being more money in circulation. Signal 2: The Fed notices the inflation and drastically raises interest rates. Money supply becomes stagnant. Signal 3: Money supply is stagnant, however, stocks continue to rise. We are now in a bubble. POP! Repeat... How long can this continue? The Fed has painted itself into a corner and has already gone down to basically 0% interest. Will they have a negative interest rate next time? 6 Years of an artificially low interest rate has created a fake bull market that's only growing because money supply has drastically increased. This bubble looks like it could hurt much worse than the last two. Why doesn't the fed stop making drastic increases/decreases to the interest rate? Why not a more gradual/linear change in rates? This feels like a casino. Could The Fed learn from history? Maybe. But not likely when you factor in politics. The Fed would have to sit by and watch the economy crashing while it only gradually lowers interest rates over a much longer period of time, which would drag out the recession. Are they willing to do that? The last two bear markets lasted 1.25 and 2.5years. Imagine a recession that lasted 5+... As for gold... During the Dot Com Bubble, gold dropped 30% but eventually rose into the Housing Bubble. Then during the Housing Bubble it kept rising and went on to hit an ATH. This time around, I'm confident gold will never see $800 again, and the top could be $5k+. It'll be interesting to see how gold acts during this bubble, will it continue up as it did during the Housing Bubble? Or is it going to go sideways for a while before a huge move up? Takeaways For me, it's incomprehensible to see how this doesn't fail, eventually. Will it be after this next bubble? 20 years from now? 50? I have no idea, but considering we're in a casino, I'm All-In that this is going to get ugly. (never mind when technology/AI starts taking more jobs while the global population is increasing...) Time will tell, but for now, staying in stocks and gradually shifting to gold (and silver) in the coming years seems like the best "bet" OH! & don't forget about crypto... ;)
SP:SPXLong
by liamcambra
6
STEEM/Bitcoin Cycles Warm For A Few Days-Big Chill Coming?STEEM/Bitcoin 12 Hour Bars, LOG Scale, 06/19/18, Written 3:35 p.m. EST, by Mike Mansfield Hi trader friends, STEEM might get hot for a few days but don’t let if fool you. It should then cool off again for at least one to two more legs down before it can likely finish its larger Wave (C) decline. Price is more important than time, but even better when price & time suggests the same thing, as in the case here. SUMMARY: BOUNCE THEN LOWER, SO LOOK FOR SHORT OPPORTUNITIES AFTER NEXT TWO WAVE 4 BOUNCES. Currently on Andrews Median Median Line support after a 5 wave down. This should provide a smaller degree Wave 4 a bounce for several days to sell into. Then, down again. Why? Cycles, Elliott Wave count, Gann/Andrews/Schiff lines are all still bearish. CM_Williams indicator has slight bullish divergence, enough to support a small degree Wave 4 bounce. But, the fact that it made lower lows on the swing before, supports our longer-term bearish view. Solid red and green arrows show most likely path. Dashed red and green arrow show less likely path NO BREAKOUT UP UNTIL: 1. Daily close above the pink dashed horizontal line, which, is the prior Wave (1) low, and would likely invalidate bearish view. 2. Daily close above the red Andrews pitchfork upper channel line. 3. Daily close above the blue dashed Gann 3:1 line, whichever of the three possibilities comes first. ELLIOTT WAVES, BIG PICTURE:p Most likely path appears to be larger ABC zigzag or larger ABCDE contracting pattern, but unclear as yet. I show both, so if you move the chart around you should see larger picture wave counts. We do not yet know if STEEM will boil and take off up after the forecasted (C) wave low or simply have a larger Wave (D) bounce followed by a Wave E) wave low, perhaps into the apex of a contracting pattern. If STEEM does take off with high volume after the Wave (C) low, and moves up in clear non-overlapping 5 wave pattern, then STEEM could have the beginning of a new impulse wave up, sooner rather than later. CYCLES: Cycles are about potential general energy shifts, not necessarily exact turning points. Sometimes they invert, sometimes they are perfectly timed with market highs and lows. Cycles, are meant for general trend guidance. Blue cycle = general trend thus far. Next trough, September 25, 2018. Green cycle aligned with the 3 major lows. Next trough, August 26, 2018. Red cycle tends to catch intermediate highs. Next trough, July 29th. This could be telling if the market gets unusually strong after July 29th. Watch for that date to see if the energy shifts dramatically up. General guidance: Look for SHORT opportunities into possible lows around the end of July,, end of August, end of September. NOTE: Do not use cycles alone! We really like the SteemIt platform and hope it keeps growing! Definitely check out SteemIt as a competitor for Medium.com and eventually, perhaps other social media sites like Facebook and YouTube, since SteemIt integrates with Dtube and “pays” you for content, unfettered by the powers that seek to control free speech and hold some blockchains down until they have their own versions to gain even more power. BOTTOM LINE: More cooling off ahead after two Wave 4s of different degrees have their short-term pop ups. Then down again to complete at least a Wave (C) low, possibly lower, or a Wave (E) apex in a wedge or triangle. Lows in the end of July, end of August, and/or end of September, 2018. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Cheers! Michael Mansfield CIO
Short
by UnknownUnicorn1613901
Bull flag waving... the white flag; top of the channelYeah thanks Fed. ECB next on the grill. Look for fairly sharp pullback to DIA 247 area, where strong support reaching back intersects the old downtrend. Dunno if the flag will keep waving or another bad break could come up- very dicey now. This is the end of Elliott wave V (leg 3). In My Humble Op, with 4 hikes looking at Fed funds rate near 3% >>> that's the breakpoint where bonds look better than stocks. Dow Transports still look healthy but the financial sector is weak, suggesting end of the bull and recession around the next corner. Flag might fly for a month or more after pullback but... New Chairman Powell wants to make name for himself - he ain't no Paul Volcker nor Alan Greenspan. Fed's gonna burst the bubble and start a secular bear market with 20-30% correction. Will be real exciting in Sep after the next hike- God forbid they hike 50 basis pts. Don't the most exciting crashes usually arrive in October?! LOL... Well it was a nice bull while it lasted; Hey Jerry, let's take him out back to the woodpile and put it down, shall we?
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
1