Get started

Fedratehike

Correction EurUsd Confirmed 15-03-2017 (ap)Hello Dear Traders & Welcome To Growing Forex "TRY & REFER THE BOLLINGER BAND WITH RSI" Be Prepared For A Rate Hike Today (1.00%) According To Bloomberg The Sentiments Of The Rate Hike Are 94% & It We Are Pretty Much Sure That They Are Going Hike The Rate, The Average True Range Of Volatility Of EURUSD On Rate Hike Is Approx 100-150-200 Pips (according to past rate hikes) That Is Enough To Drag The Price Southwards To 1.0560 or 1.0492 Levels. Trade On The Breakout & Close The Trade On 1.0560 - 1.0492 Levels As Shown In The Chart. This Will Probably Indicate The Completion Of Wave B & Start of Wave C. KEY EVENTS TO WATCH TODAY : 1. FOMC Economic Projection (report) 11.30 (IST) 2. Fed's Monetary Policy (report) 11.30 (IST) 3. Fed's Interest Rate Decision 11.30 (IST) 4. FOMC Press Conference at 12.00 (IST) "Don't Waste Your Time With Explanation, People Only Hear What They Want To Hear. " Good-Luck, Regards, Growing Forex.
Short
by GrowingForex
EURUSD UncertaintyCurrently, the sentiment of the pair seems to be clearly inclined to a down movement of the price. But we should rather wait until Friday to find out more about what will be the real direction of the pair. Note that the US is strongly considering a hike in interest rate which can cause the USD to grow much stronger. However, the France is currently on crosshead of most European traders. Le pen is one step ahead against his opponent. Her winning the presidential election will be crucial for the Euro and combined with the increase in the FED Interest rate we can almost definitely conclude that the EURUSD pair will undergo a downfall.
Short
by Hizmaylof
Gold : Complete Analysis with Dollar, S&P500 IndexOur long pending analysis and the most sought analysis is Gold. True, people are worried at uncertain times and economic scenario's around them, so they want to analyse whether Gold will be safe security for part of their investments. Before we go into analyzing the Xauusd, Be clear about the fact we are building a case with our analysis considering various economic factors.While driving car we look at traffic, speed limit,weather (Fog or rain) etc not just the destination. So we are analyzing with Global scenario's,News Events, Fed rate hikes & more. What do we see in the chart above ? Broadening Wedge Ascending Pattern which usually breaks to downside, rarely it moves up. Check out My posts on AUDUSD and USDCAD you will know how this pattern worked in the past. For sample, I'm attaching Aussie, for usdcad post check in my public profile. Above chart is not one time instance, I can show you more charts for this broadening wedge working in same manner breaking downside and moving up after the breakout. So Gold is expected to give the breakout before Fed meet & move below 1200's, with Fed rate hike ( 80% probability for rate hike) Markets will move in knee-jerk reaction with few session wicks going below 1175's barely kissing 1150;s or staying above during that time. After the dust settles down, Gold will move up as it will be considered as safe asset. Now we will have a look at DXY, So in next 3 weeks DXY will reach 103's and will move down when Fed rate hike is announced. We knew Sell the News which is insync with the post. The upside move for rate hike is already factored in , so the reversal on cards.When it moves down again Gold is sought as safe asset for investment. Apart from all these, We don't know clear picture of Trump's policies ( Economic especially), by Jan'17 we will get an idea what he is about to do, which will be definitely perceived as bad for Global economy because any change in stable policies is not accepted with cheer. (a) Fed Rate hike - Corporate/Industries will find tough on investments & expansion - Avg or less than expected results (b) Bonds will fall & people search for safe assets (b) Corporate Cash flow in future gets reduced - stocks will move lower (c) Stock markets won't be preferred investment Need more proof, check this : When US markets go down what will markets around the world will do ?? Go Down. I can show the same pattern in many scrips. But these uncertainty around the markets are enough for markets to go down & What's the safe asset ?? Gold ! Investing in this precious metal, demand will go up and Gold prices will rise. Only if something real good happens for whole global economy it will remain below 1200's,else we will see 1360's level in Gold from 1175's. Now you might have realized Why its multi-factor analysis. I'm expecting your comments to discuss further, so feel free to comment your opinions...
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InsiderB
37
SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS: BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGEShort AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to commonwealth connections. Therefore AUD is likely to come under pressure in the future as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate, as the US Election nears, Global growth worries continue (Japan, Europe, China) and Brexit/ uncertainty about further Euro Area exits continues to intensify - we can see Gold and US Treasuries continue to gain supporting the risk-off view and thus supporting selling AUD. Also, risk-off encourages $ buying as a safe haven deposit on the Brexit backdrop. - Further, going into earnings season next week, historically risk currencies (AUD) perform poorly as investors seek safer assets to hedge against earning surprises, thus this helps AUD selling and USD buying. Plus, most investors will want to hold some $ cash in order to fulfil their earnings based equity trading, so this also helps the short AU trade by increasing $ demand relative to AUD. 2. The RBA Meeting on Tuesday the 5th is likely to be dovish, as 1) Brexit risks are weighed in on again, after supportive/ dovish statements from RBA members following the Brexit decision and 2) AUD Macro Environment has performed poorly since the last meeting and the May Rate cut e.g. Retail sales 0.2% vs 0.3%, Unemployment flat at 5.7%. - However, I dont expect an RBA rate cut, as they cut last just 2 months ago in May by 25bps to 1.75% and their GDP print was firm at 3.1% v 2.8% yoy and 1.1% v 0.8% with Unemployment also stable (yet to see inflation), so I expect them to provide reassurance to markets with a strong dovish tone, with possible hints to a August rate cut - citing Brexit and looking forward to their end of July Inflation print as a gauge for further rate cuts. Nonetheless the dovish rhetoric should be strong enough to put pressure on AUD and tip the scales south supporting the AU short. 3. From a USD demand point of view, last week we saw USD lose 160pips against the AUD as Brexit Uncertainty negatively hit the Feds Rate hike cycle expectancy, flattening the curve in the front end which ruled out any hikes until Dec or 2017, fewer hikes = less USD strength. - However, since the beginning of the week where brexit risks ruled out hikes in the near term, the end of the week managed to turn rate hike expectations around as Brexit likelihood decreased/ shifted into 2017. This helped the Fed fund futures curve recover/ steepen somewhat in the front end, with the implied probability of a hike increasing from 0% to 5.9% for both September and November, whilst the probability of a hike in December also steepened significantly from 13.3% to 22.3% with the probability of a 50bps hike being priced for the first time at 1.1%. This trend of Fed Hike recovery is likely to continue as long as Brexit risks remain subdued, so we can expect USD to begin to price stronger in the coming days/ weeks. 4. Technically, AUDUSD trades 100pips away from a key handle at 0.76xx which is a double top and may provide the ideal short area. Further, higher than that at 0.78xx is the 12 month high which is also potentially a great level to get short from as a double top 5. Volatility - 1wk, 2wk and 1m (-1.52, -1.57, -1.60) AUDUSD Risk Reversals all trade with a downside bias indicating put/ downside demand is higher than upside, so the option market net expects AUDUSD to come down over the above tenors. - Out through the 5th, 6th, and 7th (post RBA) we see large notional OTM put options and open interest at 0.7365, 0.7440 & 0.7445 which supports the view that the RBA will be dovish and that AUDUSD is likely to hairpin around the 0.76xx double top level.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4