FGBL
A Simple Swing Trade Setup for Euro-BTP FuturesSince earlier this year, all European bonds have extended losses due to the impact of Ukraine war. The downtrend is persistent; therefore, the only trading action we will take is to short the market. Among all European bonds, the Italian government bond (Euro-BTP Futures) drops somewhat in an orderly fashion (breakouts with clear pullbacks). Therefore, we will be looking to enter sell positions in this market in the near future.
Euro-BTP futures has recently made a new low at the support area of 132.50, which indicates that the downtrend is still very valid. The price is currently in the bearish impulse stage, therefore, there is no immediate trading action for us to take. Our plan is to wait for the price to retrace back to the 138.00 area (previous support level), and from there we will watch the price action and enter sell positions.
Euro-BTP futures is currently among the top products to watch in our passive trading portfolio because the movement is not as sharp as other European bonds, such as the Euro-BUND futures (German gov’t bond) and Euro-OAT futures (French gov’t bond), where they fall without much of a retracement.
We will update this post as the price comes near our entry zone.
Double Bottom in German Bunds, Expected Rally to 171.2Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart. German Bunds (FGBL1!) formed a double bottom or W chart pattern setup after testing 169.60 support and break above 170.3 resistance. Expectations are for the uptrend to continue, with the completion of the setup being around the 171.20 price level. Failure of the setup will be observed if FGBL1! were to decline below the long term moving average, taking the price to 169.80.
Technical Indicators
During the course of the double bottom setup, the respective short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages had positive crossovers. Currently the price is trading above the respective MAs. Other technical indicators are also displaying bullish signs. The RSI is trading above 50 while the KST recently had a positive crossover.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 169.80 and a target of 171.2. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.37.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. Currently I have a position in FGBL1!.
The European Giant is at a consolidation periodAfter the huge drop in the beginning of the week, the market couldn't recover from the sudden shock it received, instead it kept consolidating forming a whipsaw closing the week with uncertainty.
We may see a waking up of the market by the start of the new week but since there is US presidential elections next week, things may go either great or worse.
The European giant is continuing to drop downThe market continued to drop down from the beginning of this week making it one of several market that fell during week. We might see more dropping of the market due to France's foreign policy and its conflict with the Arab world specially since France monopolizes the biggest part in the Eurostoxx50 which negatively affected the rest of the participating countries in this giant stock market.
The European Giant may move upward heavlyThe market started strong by pushing down as the bears entered the market with high volumes to put a great impact on the market, but the bulls have squeezed the sellers at 3138 giving a feeling that the market may reverse go heavily upward. But the price should break a very important area in order to continue its way upward which is 3169, and if the price could break it we may see a beautiful long trade.
The market is showing an inclination to go bearish this morning!I see that market has given a good bearish signal with a significant volume that is superior to its previous volume, but i also see an support zone at 3198 that the price should break before taking off downward. When the price breaks the support line, you should definitely sell the market.
The Euro Stoxx50 Is trying to trap the traders.I see that the market is trying to trap some trader as it is trying to show a fake move to the bottom where there is a tremendous support are at 3189 that pushes the price up no matter what! On the other hand, there is also a strong resistance area at 3217 and i see there is high probability that it will break it and move up. So, when the price breaks that resistance area, you definitely should buy the market.