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$EURUSD - JUDAS SWING - Low of the week hit. (Idea)I personally called a buy to myself earlier this morning because I'm anticipating prices to get to 1.184-1.185 ish before we start to see a down trend. Here's The trade I personally called. I had a limit set and it hit in London and I woke up in profit so my natural instinct is that we would have a buying bias going into today anticipating that high for the week. Then I saw another buy opportunity and took that. And as you can see, that didn't work out So like any normal trader I waited to see what was actually going on. And I still have my chart marked up with all of the order blocks and I couldn't have been more surprised to see that it hit the same order block from last week. So I bought based on that. It hasn't made a lower low so my analysis stands that it will eventually get to my high that I'm anticipating which is 1.184-1.185 ish. I've done too much analysis on this chart but I just got hit with something I didn't expect today. But that's ok. It just gives me another chance to get back to where it is going to be. So here's my current position to my current aim. P.S. I don't believe in trend lines. Only discount prices.
Long
by BodiesXWix
EURUSD - Higher Prices for Next Week Hello and welcome back. If you found this idea helpful, please leave a like. Even in uncertain conditions and with the election around the corner, EURUSD produced higher prices like clockwork. I am expecting the same thing going into next week. We can retrace back into the pink box, but I would rather not see that. I am expecting EURUSD to move into 1.1850 and then take out the highs at 1.1870. Perhaps expand into the 1.1900 big-figure. That is what I am seeing at this time.
Long
by TheMystiqueTrader
1
$EURUSD - Selling Breaker for Pullback - Hold over the weekend? As I have EURUSD pretty mapped out if you've been following my ideas, I'm, just giving an update. I sold the breaker at 1.18260 as a breaker is usually an indicator to sell.My stop loss is only 4 pips because it got pretty high above the breaker before I sold. And we need a pull back before moving forward to the next bearish order block which will be the next big fall and/or seasonal downtrend. I'll buy again at the next bullish order block which I believe I have located on the chart. I'm just questioning if I should hold over the weekend. A lot of uncertainty. I may just close 99% of the trade and leave a .01 Lot Size running to see what happens. I'll probably know make up my mind 10 minutes before the market closes. EDIT after 5 minutes of thinking. I'll probably hold. I've been calling EURUSD correctly for at least the last 2 weeks. I don't think I'll be wrong on this one. Not to toot my own horn or anything, but I'm just really understanding this pair more than others.
Short
by BodiesXWix
3
$EURUSD - Now Bullish Until at least 1.18400I know, anyone who sees my ideas on EURUSD knows that I keep going back and forth. But After I hit profit on all 4 of my shorts I noticed a bullish order block at 1.17345 that I didn't notice before. So I closed all my trades and bought there (Well 1.17364 is my actual entry) because I knew we had to get to the bearish order blocks above, where the big drop happened a few Sunday's ago (Sept 21st actually) . So it dipped and it will continue to do what it's been doing. Bullish and Bearish moves. The problem is that we haven't seen anything lower than that of the low 2 weeks ago at the end of the week on Sept 25, so it has yet to beak sell side market structure. So I've decided I'm turning on Bull Mode Until the Major order block before the major fall a few weeks back. Once we hit that order block, I'll turn back Bearish. It goes along with my 6 month plan I laid out, this time I', just a bit more specific. Larger Picture. While typing this I've fluctuated anywhere between 12 and 20 pips in profit.
Long
by BodiesXWix
$EURUSD - False Break Out ComingWhat I believe is depicted in the graph. Convince the retailers to buy during the London session while it runs into a bearish order block, there will be an abrupt turn around and price to head below the equal lows to trigger the retail sell stops. The probably a pull back and take those sell stops out at their stop losses. Then the continuation sell. The continuation sell will most likely happen around 6-8 a.m. CST. I would enter short anywhere between 1.17720 and 1.17900 and aim for 1.17250-1.17200. Hopefully Lower.
Short
by BodiesXWix
$EURUSD - I'm Being a BearDue to the major shift yesterday, my daily bias is to be bearish. And even though we have not made a lower low, we have yet to create a higher high so I'm being a little aggressive with a bearish call since I don't have as many confirmations as I would like to have. I pulled fibs across a few situations and entered on each three of those situations shown and 3 different take profits for all 3. I've entered at 1.17724, 1.17635, and 1.17543. First Goal is 1.17250, Second is 1.17075, Third is the 1.16860. These are the 0. -27%, and -62% extensions. If it makes it to -100% at 1.16615 that would be great. 1.1800 is serving as a major resistance. And when overlaying bond yields, the German yield (conducive of the Euro), it steadily declined during the hours of 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. (CST U.S.). However since 8 a.m., they've both shifted toward more positive yields and the German yield is a bit more aggressive, so that is a little worrisome. I could be completely wrong. We may need a higher retracement before we start seeing the seasonality of the fall of the EU. I'm just hoping it's sooner than later. Side note #1 - I'm in the positive on my last position I took. Crossing my fingers it stays that way. Side note #2 - I don't believe in trendlines. Side note #3 - I use the Dollar Sign ($) in front of the symbol because I post these to twitter and it will tag $EURUSD like a hashtag except. And it can be searchable like a hashtag.
Short
by BodiesXWix
$EURUSD - Long Term (6 Months?) - Rethinking Retracementi use the CoT Report for a lot of guidance. If you know how the commercial/central banks are trading, then you have a pretty goof idea as to where the market is going to go. As mentioned in many of my ideas, they started shorting back in March. My belief if they stacked a lot of orders at that March high, know it would eventually get lower than that point. The First week of September is when EURUSD made it's most recent high, and so far, high of the year, which is typical for about this time of the year if you look at yearly cycles. The commercials were at the deepest in shorts at this time and started lessening the shorts shortly after. Just two weeks ago we did see the massive sell off. Last week we started to see the retracement, more longs were added. Now what I did whas draw a fib from the highest point in September to the High point in March, these are the times the commercials switch from longs to shorts (March) to the height of their short positions (September). I threw in a few ideas here on trading view that we would probably see more aggressive shorting, not seeing the foresight of what the ultimate achievement of the central banks are trying to do. So now I throw another fib on top of the current ont, this fib is from the highest high (September) to the most recent low that we've had since that high in March which was just about a week/2weeks ago. There's a confluence overlap of the new 62% retracement that is sitting on top of the 70.5% retracement of both of these fibs at the institutional level of 1.18600. As I can't see the future, this could easily make it's way back to the 1.2000 level, just to draw enough retail buyers in to go long at the opportunistic moment. But I digresss. I believe that near the 1.18600 level will be the kill zone to go short, for all of those shorts that have been building will finally take off and make a run for the original March-Sept fib to hit their extensions -27% to -62%. And just prior the -62% of the March to Sept fib is the pivot, -100%, for the September to September 25 fib. These institutional levels are 1.12000 and 1.17000. And the 1.17000 level is where we find a major support zone. As price typically chases 10 year bond yields, you can see a clear divergence in the the US 10 Year yield (Blue) vs. the Euro 10 year yields (Yellow, Top Down it goes Italy, Spain, France, Germany) While the U.S. yield is currently making a higher high since August 27, the rest of the Euro countries are slipping in yield prices. Just another tidbit to support my claim. Yes. A lot is going to happen between now and then. As for my related idea to short this week, I'm not so sure, I think we'll be seeing more bullishness. But I believe this is the framework of this pair that we should see play out until next spring when we start to see a bullish move once again. I'll try to call the day trades when I see them in this pair because they've been forming around 6a.m. - 8 a.m. CST U.S. But as for now, This is my current and final skeleton of the EURUSD. Final note, I don't believe in trend lines. Sorry, not sorry.
by BodiesXWix
1
$EURUSD Weekly Outlook - To Summarize - ShortCoT has the commercial banks shorting the EURUSD still. Yeah, they added a few long positions this weel, but that was to get back to a level they wanted to add more shorts. They/ve been shorting since the height of the Pandemic swing. so for the Central banks to start being profitable, the price will have to be below 1.13500. If you draw a fib from the start of the EURUSD commercial shorts to the height of the commercial shorts, you can see it unfold in the fib extensions where price wants to reach. I personally like to see a bit of a larger retracement to the green box notated in this chart during the London/NY session before aggressively going short. Plus theirs divergence in the 10 year bonds between the currencies. As most are going up, the EUR is taking a dip as of recent. DIVERGENCE IN 10 YEAR BONDS Strong Bear tendencies this week. It will be London op and NY open to find the best setups to go short.
Short
by BodiesXWix
3