Fibo
Fibonacci numbers detected on the time axis. 3rd wave to go. 1 bar = 4 hours.
The distances between the tops and the bottoms of the latest price movements returns us almost perfect Fibonacci match:
* 13 + 22 -> 36
* 36 + 22 -> 59
* 36 + 59 -> 95
* 95 + 59 -> 154 / 4h = 27d for the 3rd wave
95th bar (ending of the 2nd wave) falls on the 15th of January, so I expect that current movement down can last up to 3 more days and the price can get a bit below $13000. If the price will reverse here, the next upward movement could last for around 27 days and bring us to the new heights. It can be interpreted as the 3-rd impulse wave. The 2nd corrective wave has almost reached the bottom of the 1st wave. The 3-rd wave can be long and powerful.
Bitcoin: BTCUST Big .618 Fibo: still bearish Bitcoin BTCUSD
Apologies for leaving Bitcoin unattended yesterday, busy with other business. It was left 'positive whilst above 15485'.
Well that didn't last long. This level was lost to bears early in
London yesterday and the subsequent rally took BTC all the way back to up to the 15485 blue line precisely - before
falling away again by 1800 points. It was strong above this line and weak below it...but why so weak? Readers will know that
usually not much heed is paid to Fibonacci levels - they tend to work sometimes in FX markets - and for every .618 that can
be produced, there are 12 more that can't - so they do occur, but as a trading tool they are not much use to us, about 90%
of the time. But for once it just could be that Fibonacci has revealed a bigger, more frightening pattern hiding in the
noise...Bitcoin is a currency after all. If you were looking for one last 'hurrah', one last 'suckers' rally' it would to sell the
.618 retracement of the entire decline from the high just under 20,000 to the low just above 11,000 (on Bitstamp feed).
And guess where that .618 would take Bitcoin up to before the real real decline then sets in ? That would be 16394 for
the next rally high...followed by the REAL decline and fall.
Bitcoin in fact made a high in China the night before last at 16476, just 29 points above the blue line and next upside
target at 16447 - it fell 2000 points over the next 11 hours before rallying 1000 (exactly 50% of the previous decline) to
15485 key level for the day and reached at midnight GMT (10 hours ago now) before falling away again by another 1800
points. So Bitcoin continues to behave technically by the book. But this is bad side of Bitcoin we're seeing now, not the
good. And that big Fibo says it's not over yet. We are not looking to buy again yet until the dust settles, and that won't
be soon by look of chart at moment.
This little rally from usual 5-6am GMT lows is not to be trusted. We look to short it from higher up...(or keep all
powder dry until we see a proper bottom defined further out in time, which we will try to get close to when it comes).
It can rally to 14539 and perhaps push into the next line of resistance above here, at 14648-14700 but not much higher
(for sure 15485, which was support yesterday, is now resistance and is unlikely to be breached until the downside
has been tested first now. Can also sling a support line under the lows of the day so far to give a short signal - look to short
once broken..should test the underside of this trend line once broken lower and recoil down again...can short then with
stops above the line by at least 50 points . Otherwise we stay on the sidelines.. This is no place for brave buys. We wait.
Bitcoin is getting interesting, buyt for all the wrong reasons now. But soon this will present an opportunity. For most then,
powder dry. We wait. Like ravens have to wait for the wolf to finish his dinner, so must we.
Indepth Gold AnalysisLets go deeper with this analysis for gold D1 time frame. Looking back we recently broke support and dropped to the first 38% fibo target. This fibo appears to have failed to hold and price started to make its way down to the next resistance line which only has two bounces. Naturally we will likely see a third.
The price action shows absolutely no indication that we will stop here and there doesn't appear to be any kind of resistance here.
PLEASE NOTE: "I dont have the indicators displayed on this chart. To see the full visual of the analysis go to www.precisiondigital.ca it is on the home page."
Looking at a full tool chest of indicators we can see much of the same thing:
The MFI so heading south, is below 50 and shows no sign of letting up. We will likely see a spike down with some price action if/when it hits the oversold mark.
The RSI has just hit oversold and generally speaking is still pointing down, although the very moment we see a little softness. Because of the MFI, I suspect the RSI will rise slightly and smash back through over sold territory. This will also cause some price action down.
The OSMA shows great strength for the bears and indicates that we are still very much heading downward. It is rising and well above the zero mark.
The RVI has recently broken support and is slightly below the 0.00 level. If it continues lower, this would indicate that the bear push has just begun.
The Stocastics is oversold and starting to turn up indication that the bull wave may be close. This means we might see some short term stalling until it turns back around. In conclusion I am fairly confident that we will be seeing some more bear movement, at least to the support level at approx. 1228.
With the indicators the way they are, we could easily pass that to hit one of our other support level targets at approx. 1210 and 1194.
Always remember to manage your risk properly and avoid chest pains. Try smaller lot sizes for a while, you just might like it. Good luck!
Updated Bitcoin Chart: 45% TradeREAD READ READ
Here is my updated Bitcoin Chart: 45% Trade Opportunity Timeframe unkown
For those that have been with me on the previous trade, you have known that we shorted bitcoin near the 11,000 levels (chart was posted earlier, however). Currently still an active trade. I will close short at 9500 levels safely and watch the key levels between 9500-7860 keenly, and consider going long at 9300, and 7900 levels. I may use a weighted cost average between the two, depending on price movement at the given price.
Entry: 7860
Stop Loss: 7200
Target Profit: 13700
I believe the price will consolidate around the 9300 levels for a couple day timespan, and then continue dropping to our target entry points.
History has the potential to repeat itself and I would see this as a medium risk trade.
In the past, bitcoin had retraced from BTC High in June, and corrected itself in a full retracement to the near 3000 levels. After so, it continued to pass the Fibonacci going for 261.8% retracement levels. After, it had then dipped down to the 161.8% levels, and surely bouncing and rising yet again. As you guys can see, the fib retracement has been very accurate thus far.
Currently, following this trend, bitcoin had passed through a full retracement from 7800 levels previous to 5600 levels. Thus far, bitcoin had retraced and passed through the 161.8% and 261.8% retracement levels.
In conclusion, I see a potential buy opportunity on a bounce to the 161.8% fib level. We will watch closer as the price dials in to see if we can find more technical analysis.
Happy Trading to you all.
Easiest Way to Draw Fibonacci LevelsMy entire trading strategy is built around how I draw and utilize Fibonacci levels. I use Fibonacci levels to determine precise entry, target, and stop loss placement in combination with other technical analysis methods. The biggest problem I see with a lot of traders is that they do not know how to draw Fibonacci levels properly. So I will show you my method and you will see that the market really seems to react to it. If you have any questions please post a comment below.
Step 1: Go to the Monthly timeframe and pick the previous month's fully formed candle. If the previous month's candle does not have a large body relative to the rest of the order flow, then it is perfectly acceptable to go back two months and pick that candle instead.
Step 2: If it is a Bullish candle draw your Fibonacci levels from the high of the candle to its low. If it is a Bearish candle draw your Fibonacci levels from the low of the candle to its high.
Step 3: Switch to a lower timeframe (daily chart and lower) and observe how price reacts to the Fibonacci levels as support / resistance
Step 4: The following month re-draw your Fibonacci levels if required
Tips:
1)On my charts I include the 1.272 and 1.414 levels as well as the 2.0 level. These are not automatically visible
2)You can also 'reverse' the levels (simply draw them in the opposite direction or use the reverse function in the Fibonacci tool's settings) if the current month's price action violates the 0 level. This does not happen often.
Example: AUDUSD. I have drawn the Fibonacci levels from the low to the high of the October Monthly Candle
Now look at the same Fibonacci levels on the Hourly Timeframe. I have highlighted clear rejections in November of Fibonacci levels that can be used as entry points and the elongated rectangle shows a clear demand region near the 1.00 level.
DAXEger fiyat 13.030'u gecer ve 13.030 ustunde kalicilik saglarsa ana hedef noktasina varana kadar turuncu olarak cizdigim fibo seviyeleri arasinda hizli hareket edip tirtikli fibo çizgilerinde yavaslayacaktir. Birincil ana hedef olan 13.330 da ise duzeltme dususu gelebilir, islemden cikip beklemek gerek.
___________________________________
If the price exceeds 13,030 and sustains above 13,030, it will move quickly between the fibo levels I draw in orange until it reaches the main target point(13.330) and slow down in the serrated fibo straps.
Bearish USD/JPY: An outlook for next 6-8 weeksWe can see right now at RSI that is accumulating to the overbought territory, the price is too high, reaching the level of a previous higher high which consequently produced a big sell-off turning down the price to 108 levels. So in this case, anytime soon we could see the opportunity to enter in a hard downtrend rally.
USDCAD short idea (H1/H4)Hello, All!
CAD FX:USDCAD has been continuously strengthening versus USD since May 2017.
The last major breakout of the previous support level of 1.233x occurred on 06 September.
After that, the pair was moving inside the ascending triangle which is most likely to be the accumulation phase prior to the next major move. If indicated point 5 is reached, it will also make Wolfe wave formation a reality and will provide an interesting opportunity to go short.
This setup was inspired by TomHall's original idea, many thanks for it!
GL and nice profits!
NZDJPY DAILY/WEEKLY TRADE (SELL)The grand bearish wave FX:NZDJPY is forming on DAILY/WEEKLY time frame. Fibo fan is indicating the possible future location of point V . Being a long-term project, it'll take significant time to reach its goals, but if reached, they're definitely worth* it :-)
This idea was largely inspired by beauty and simplicity of Tradewonk's analysis:
Good luck and profitable trading!
Gold Buy ZoneD1 - We have a good up trend line and is already very close to it. We can look for buys as long as 1214 zone holds.
H4 - Triple cycle would end at 1220 zone which is also a magnet zone and a very strong supportive area of the D1 swing low.
1234 is the Fibonacci expansion 61.8% along with the daily trend line. Price already bounced from it, providing a good movement up. Keep in mind price is already in a good place for buys.
Summary - Until the 1234 zone holds we can look for buy opportunities already. Next zone to follow is slightly lower around 1220.
VSTM Wave completion + other concurrent price action
I'm long 500 units VSTM given the completion of the wave cycle + concurrent daily close above .38 fibo AND minor support from the initial trend reversal line established back in March.
Be careful though, fundamentals are fairly weak with this small cap company failing to produce a profit. Stop loss set tight at around 1.8. 5 year target at $15+. Short term, I expect to see $5/share, hopefully by the end of the year. Assets alone value over $2/share, so for me, it's a moderate risk.
My first day here at TradingView, cut me some slack :-D Any input would be greatly appreciated.
NIKKEI225 H4/DAILY TRADE (SELL)Hello, traders!
NIKKEI 225 formed a bearish wolfewave and made a good move below the line 2-4 being supported by medium volume.
Opened sell position, but as the price bounced from fibo fan 61.8, it may retrace to line 2-4 later. If so and supported by divergence/volume, this can become an opportunity for more shorts.
GL All!