AUD/CAD - Daily Chart Analysis - Waiting a BreakoutAUD/CAD - Daily Chart Analysis - Waiting a Breakout
If the price broke the trend line with a breakout candle, enter LONG .
Take profit 1: @0.99860
Stop loss @0.95160
If the price bounce on the trend line enter SHORT .
Take profit1: 1st support @0.94500
Take profit2: 2nd support @0.93400
Stop loss: @0.9800
Have a nice trading! gg.
Fibo
The stock market looks very bearish if this happensA channel from the lows of 2009 to now has broken and been re-tested. If the re-test breaks out then we move to fib levels, moves from the 23-38% are very common. If momentum picks up I'll be looking for a move into and below 14,000.
See more about this at our website: www.daytradersfx.com
EURGBP awaiting the BREXIT results (Weekly) PART2On the Weekly we can see the strong bearish bias with the large red candles all over the place. After the price has formed Bearish Engulfing on the 61.8% FIB it then made LH and came all the way down to the Monthly support level. Was a false breakout of the support when the price came back to retest the prior LH. The level 0.79370 is a very strong resistance as we can see that the price couldn't break it and close above. We can see the strength by all those spikes price made every time approaching the level. This time it made very nice Shooting Star out of this level and fall back down to Monthly support area where it is struggling right now. We can see that the EMAs crossed up however the price is still below the 200MA. As I've said in the PART1 (you can find on my page) we're heading down after bouncing back into the channel and off the FIB level unless we will break the channel, retest and continue to go up changing by this the existing trend.
Thanks for taking your time to read all of this) I wish you all profitable trading
EURUSD - Strucuture Trading+++ Don't forget to LIKE & Follow+++Here are my thoughts about EURUSD on 4H.
Price failed to make a higher high higher close above previous minor structure(red line) and if you drop 1 time frame lower you will see a Double Top with RSI being OB on the right Top + bearish divergence - nice trading opportunity for shorting EURUSD. If price goes higher you can take the opportunity for hopping on the bearish move.
If you look left price made a NSH - this NSH confirmed a bullish rotation in price on 4H, so currently I'm looking where I can go long. There is equal measured move(orange lines) that is completing right at previous zone(look where is NSL). There is 1.618 Fibo Extension too - that is almost perfectly aligned with the measured move.
I will be waiting for RSI to go in oversold condition and then I'll be looking for entry reasons based on my trading plan. You can wait for a Double Bottom with stops below structure level(NSL) and target previous minor structure.
Good Luck!
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GBPAUD is going down :D... I hope...GBPAUD
well, there is not much to say, in 15m just broke a nice resistance, it seems that will make a nice shoulder-head-shoulder, also seems like the 1h and 15m 5th elliot wave, and the end of a 4th wave on 4h. It coudn't suppas the fibbo resistance. And well, in the lv2 there are like the HELL of a lot of selling positions right above that is scaring the price away...
Squezze is starting to fall, we have a short aceleration... What else we can ask? Maybe that MA 50 that is like saying "hey dont trusth this dud, go long" but... Naaa, who really cares about that silly MA... (Put some tight stops...) put stops around 1.9913... Or something like that, remember your spread.
Remember if you have a winning position and it goes to a losse position is a mistake that has no forgiveness, please follow your trade with stops and so. This is a daily swing, that could turn into a positioner trade... It might go short for weeks :D
That is what I am aiming for. SELL MY CHILDREN SEELLLLL!!!
Dow Jones forecast week commencing 16th MaySo on Friday 13th May, we have seen the classic head and shoulder topping pattern confirm here on a lot of major indices. You could apply this thinking also to S&P500 and its derivatives Spy etc.
So the head and shoulder neckline break, all in shorts right? Wrong. Note the orderly bearish action, respecting fibs very tightly on the way down. Also note the formation of a downward channel in the process of forming the head and right shoulder. Also note that next week is options expiry (Opex) on Friday 20th May. This chart tells you all you need to know about what usually happens in these weeks northmantrader.files.wordpress.com
So my plan for next week is perhaps initially scalp short, and look for a reversal around the bottom purple channel line. If this plays out well and we see reversal there, you can get long and hold it, perhaps even past opex into week commencing 23rd May. Just keep bringing up your stops to lock in profit, or ride the trend (buy dips) intraday if you prefer.
If all goes according to plan (warning - it usually doesn't :D), we'll hit the upper trendline, and this will coincide with a 61.8 retracement and also a proper retest of the H&S neckline as resistance. If the plan is still in tact at this stage, that could be an excellent place to look for shorts, aiming for the technical target of the H&S, all the way down at 17k on the dow (which also coincides with the big 2000 level on S&P 500)
Evening star on GBPUSDNice "Evening star" pattern formed on the Monthly resistance, in line with FIB 61.8 made lower high. As the rule of the trend we're about to see new lower low which I'm expecting to be at 1.42250 (confluence with weekly support and -0.27 FIB). Entering on the bearish close below the CTL on 4H.
Oil Finishing Its' Symmetrical Uptrend. Retrace back to.382Oil has finished its second symmetrical uptrend (blue trend line) along with its 3rd symmetrical smaller trend (pink trend line) Expect it to retrace back to its .382 fib line as it did on the first leg up.
Note that this trend has had some retracements already unlike its first leg up. Look to break the .238 first before committing to the .382. Target Price is 46.56
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Gold: Sequential Cup and Handle Patterns.First off, I Apologize for the cluttered chart. If I find a better way to represent the data I will do so in the future. Also, there is a lot of info on this char so you may have to zoom in and move around to soak it all in.
It is looking like XAUUSD has a sequential cup and handle patterns happening. It also looks to be continuing this pattern in a Matryoshka doll fashion. The largest (yellow) has a ratio of 1.48, meaning the larger upward trend is 1.48 times bigger than its smaller downward trend. If we take this ratio and apply it to the next downward trend (green trend line) then you get the first red target bubble which was missed with the 1.48 ratio.
The ratio between the green trend lines is 1.27, which means the larger upward green trend line is 1.27 times larger than the smaller downward trend line. If you take that ratio and apply it to the incomplete cup and handle pattern then you get the predicted blue circle. If you apply the first, larger ratio of the initial cup and handle pattern (yellow trend lines) then you end up with the second red target circle.
The lines are drawn with similar angles. I couldn’t get the angles exact with Trading View, but they are pretty darn close and given that this is a rough prediction, I’d say they are accurate within the reason of this analysis.
Also note that using Fibonacci Retracements, using the green downward trend line and using the blue downward trend, it creates overlapping 1.618 retracements. This is important as it is near the target red circles.
The Target prices :
Blue Circle: About 1312 May 22-May26
Second Red Circle: About 1322 May 22-May 26 perhaps even May 29, or 30 (that Mon or Tues)
1.1618 Fib Retrace: About 1333 Mid June.
I am most confident about the 1312 ish range as the cup and handle pattern has fallen just short of either past 1.618 or .618 retracements indicating the trend runs out of steam early.
A scenario with fundamentals would be that it hits one of the first two targets, most likely the blue target, runs out of steam shortly then news could kick in where the Fed decides not raise rates in June, which would take gold to its fib retracement levels of 1333 in Mid June.
***One more thing to help you read the chart. Red font labels are the distance and angle of the downward trends, green being the upward.
Short NOC (and the Defense sector in general)The whole Defense industry is extremely overbought in all time frames, even in monthly. Stocks are reaching important long term Fibo projections.
NOC is making no exception, showing RSI bearish divergence and declining volume in parabolic rise.
Excellent risk/reward on the short side, target near $167, even $135 possibly.
$AUDCHF | High Probability Reversal @ 0.78228 | Fib Wolfe GeoHello Traders,
Here I have utilized the the Wolfe Wave, Geo's Off-Set Rule, and Fib clusters.
Wolfe Wave - Within the Wolfe's 1-2 and 2-3 points you must look out for an ab=cd pattern which we clearly have stated here. Points 3-4 and 4-5 are less likely to have such patterns. In fact, as a WW trader, you want the 4-5 path to be carved out as smoothly as possible. Which we also have here. The Wolfe is near completion, but this alone will not give us a complete analysis.
Geo's Off-Set Rule - I have defined levels at 0.75558 and 0.71548 to clearly show where the Geo's Off-Set Targets lie.
Rule 1 - If WW completes at point 5, we will look at the 1-4 line as the exit point.
Rule 2 - If price hits 5', we will look at point 4, 0.71548, as the exit point.
Rule 3 - If price hits 5" we will look at point 3, 0.75558, as the exit point.
Fib Clusters - There are 2 Fibonacci Extensions I chose to display in this chart. The first one is the one on points 1 & 2. This gives us a maximum excursion point at which price will need to reach in order to complete the 1.618 ratio. The next Fibonacci Extension is used on the final leg down from 3-4 which gives us a 2.618 confluence zone with the previous Fib Extension.
With that said, 0.78228 is the point price will need to reach in order to reverse its direction. If this pair moves quickly we may touch the 5' line defined, which would give us a high probability target of 0.71548 as an exit. If price does not reach the 5' line I still expect 0.71548 to remain a high probability target.
Best,
Chartistry
EURUSD Brussels Attack Caution - H4 bullish divergence RSIEURUSD Brussels Attack Caution
Just a short technical assessment:
I see maximum downside risk for the EURUSD-0.31% at around 1.1150, which is 0.38 fib support, upper ichimoku cloud and bottom of march uptrend channel despite a strong H4 bullish divergence in the RSI
On the upper end we could see a move to go through 1.13 levels and finally knock out 1.14.
Be cautious! This is a grandchess day. Whenever this happens, the major players on this planet make their moves!
Don't trust the media!
Cheers,
SinatraFX