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Fibo

Wide turbulent ranges for the ZARReferring back to my long-term idea posted in January (linked below “1H2023 USD/ZAR weekly timeframe”) I believe that the pair has started its 5th impulse wave higher towards the 2020 high around the 19.30’s after the failed break below the critical support rate of 16.80. The rand has depreciated for five consecutive weeks since mid-January which has seen the local unit slide roughly 7.65%. The economic calendar for this week is a heavy one with a host of local and international events and data prints which is expected to throw the pair into a wide trading range. Locally, SA’s finance minister will present the updated budget tomorrow. The main point of discussion that investors will look out for is Eskom and it is anticipated that the government will advance their plans to take on a sizeable amount of debt from the ailing power utility. The rand also faces a potential grey listing by the FATF this week. Honestly, don’t expect any local factors that will be rand positive anytime soon. Internationally, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting results will be released which will probably just support the Fed’s recent hawkish sentiment. To wrap up the week, US GDP results for 4Q2022 will be released and on Friday the US PCE price index will be updated, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. It’s difficult to make a call how these data prints will influence investor sentiment. Despite all the above factors that are undoubtedly rand negative, the rand could pull the pair lower towards the 61.8% Fibo rate of 17.84 if risk-on sentiments flow into the markets following the FOMC minutes, US GDP and PCE data prints. The rand tends to pullback aggressively after an uptrend, it overshoots like a rubber band to the top and bottom side. If this pullback materializes, buying at rates around 17.80 may be favourable. The support levels currently sit on the psychological rate of 18.00, 23.6% Fibo at 17.95 and then the critical support at 17.83 which coincides with the neckline of the broken parallel channel. I’m personally looking to leave buy limit orders between 17.75 and 17.85. A break above 18.28/18.30 will invalidate the expected pullback. Technically the daily MACD seems to be rolling over and could cross to a sell signal while the RSI is sitting in overbought zones at 67.85 which supports this expected pullback. Two factors that also support this USD/ZAR pullback is my expected pullback in the DXY and the fact that Platinum is finding support around $920 per oz (ideas linked below).
Short
by Goose96
3
DXY Pre January CPIThe upward momentum on the DXY after January’s positive non-farm payroll print on the 3rd of February seems to have subsided for the time being. The DXY managed to test its 50-day MA and touch the green 23.6% Fibo retracement level at 104 but these resistance levels have held their ground. The 23.6 % Fibo also coincides satisfyingly with the neckline of the previous upward trendline as well as the blue 50% Fibo retracement level. There was a gap down at market open this morning ahead of the highly anticipated US CPI print for January which is negative for the greenback. Last week Friday the BLS quietly revised the CPI higher for four of the past five months, with one month unchanged so always take CPI results with a pinch of salt (CPI is a lie but it influences investor sentiment). The supposed CPI for January is expected to print 6.2%, down from 6.4% in December, yoy. My track record forecasting scenarios from data prints aren’t great but this is how I see the lay of the land; an in line with expectations or a print lower than 6.2% yoy will add fuel to the Fed’s self-proclaimed narrative that they have beat inflation. This scenario will be dollar negative and will spur risk-on investor sentiment. This scenario will allow the DXY to fall below the support at 103 (covid peak) and drop lower towards the critical support at 101.843, blue 61.8% Fibo retracement level). On the flip side, a print at or above 6.4% yoy will have investors running back to the safe haven dollar with their tails between their legs. This scenario is expected to push the DXY above the resistance level of 104 and higher towards 106.00. (I don’t expect a fair CPI print if they can just quietly revise the numbers higher at a later stage without spooking the markets thus, I’m not in favour of this scenario materializing today). Technical indicators: The buy signal on the daily MACD seems to be rolling over which is dollar negative but there is a fair degree of bullish divergence on the RSI which is keeping me on my toes. I’m leaning towards the first scenario I mentioned earlier. Over the longer-term (the remainder of 2023) I’m very much bullish on the dollar and I think the bottom for the DXY is in at 100.90 I believe we will see the dollar milkshake theory play out this year when the economic realities start collecting their debt.
TVC:DXY
by Goose96
2
Fibonacci Retracement Levels In Forex TradingBoth novice and seasoned traders use Fibonacci levels as one of the most common and universal strategies when trading forex and other markets. It is a well-known fact that market prices incline toward levels where the bulk of market orders are gathered. Such levels can be found and predicted using a variety of ways. Systems for trading are built on a variety of levels. Since traders first realized that the price fluctuations of some assets frequently followed the Fibonacci number sequence, the Fibonacci levels have been employed in trading. The standard Tradingview trading platform, which is currently the most well-known and in demand, includes the tool because of how useful it is. Leonardo Fibonacci, who was born in ancient Italy, discovered a straightforward numerical sequence that is utilized globally and is consistent with a wide range of natural occurrences. The order is as follows: 0 followed by 1, then 1 (0+1), then 2 (1+1), then 3 (1+2), followed by 5, then 8 (3+5), etc. It appears that the Fibonacci sequence is the sum of the two numbers before it. An intriguing ratio may be calculated using these numbers: 0.618 is the result of dividing the first by the second (regardless of which of the numbers in the sequence are taken). And you get 0.382 when you split the numbers by one. The "golden ratio" is this set of fractions, and it appears frequently in nature, a striking example is a spiral like the seeds in a sunflower. The following are the trading-related Fibonacci correction levels: 0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, and 0.764. Levels of expansion are 0; 0.382; 0.618; 1.000; 1.382; and 1.618. It makes no sense for traders to manually calculate any of these figures, which are all calculated from the sequence. The key is to comprehend how they operate, what they are used for, what data they offer, and how to make effective use of them when trading. Special indicators that automatically draw lines on the chart or symbols in the trading platform are used while trading with Fibonacci levels. Retracement levels can be utilized for a number of purposes, such as support and resistance, to start trades, and to set stop orders. The usage of extension levels by traders for take-profit placement. Based on swings, or candles with at least two upper highs or upper lows on the left and right, Fibonacci levels can be applied to a chart. Additionally, bear in mind that Fibonacci levels for forex are a trending technique and are not applied during periods of consolidation. When the trend is upward, the price tends to retreat from Fibonacci-based resistance levels; the opposite is true for downtrends and support. Fibonacci Levels in Forex: How to Use Them Almost all charting applications contain Fibonacci retracement levels. Fibonacci lines are regarded as the most flexible and understandable option, however others also use fan lines, arcs, and time periods as typical tools. What do you need to know about Fibonacci numbers in order to trade? Values are calculated as 23.6, 38.2, 50.0, 61.8, and 76.4% on a scale of 0 to 100. The primary signal for foreseeing likely future price fluctuations is these ratios (prices often bounce back from levels). The indicator shows levels on the price chart and allows forecasting of future price changes.If you want to manually trade using the price chart or the software, you can select to display correction levels. To do this, drag the cursor from the bottom point of the trend to the top point. There will be five horizontal lines that display 0, 38.2, 50, 61.8, and 100% (an additional line showing 23.6% can be added). Depending on whether Fibonacci is trading above or below the lines, the lines can be utilized as support or resistance levels. The levels activate more frequently as the time span becomes longer. Finding a downward trend, appropriately stretching the Fibonacci lines, waiting for confirmation, and placing an order are the essential duties of a trader. Numerous strategies for using numerical series in trading exist. How Fibonacci Levels Work And How To Use Them In Trading Trading professionals can examine the changes in asset values by using Fibonacci numbers that are displayed as lines on the chart. As a result, resistance/support levels are established, and the degree of a trend movement's already-started corrective is examined. The price typically follows the guidelines of key levels on the Fibonacci lines. Therefore, there is a strong likelihood of a price reversal at the level, for instance, if the price crosses the line. Fibonacci retracement levels are particularly helpful for discovering pullback levels, for establishing the conclusion of a pullback, and for the continuation of price movement along with the trend because pullbacks are a natural part of every trend. The key correction levels are created by the interrelations between a trend and a correction shown by Fibonacci levels, which have recovery probabilities of 38%, 50%, and 62%. It only takes placing a grid over critical spots to see that pivotal price levels frequently cross Fibonacci percentage lines. Fibonacci levels and graphical patterns can be used to coincidentally determine market entrance and exit points. Opening profitable trading positions after a collapse or rebound from a level is beneficial. Trading professionals frequently employ Fibonacci lines to place Stop-Loss and Take-Profit orders. To avoid being caught by an unintentional pullback, it is preferable to position the Stop-Loss order above the levels (for the recovery from which the trader is counting). Take-Profit levels are based on Fibonacci extension.Remember that on a price chart, the support/resistance areas that coincide with the Fibonacci net levels are viewed as further support for the lines' significance. This instrument is the foundation of many trading techniques. Beginners should be aware that there is no definitive interpretation of the Fibonacci technique; it is merely a point of reference. Trading systems frequently incorporate Fibonacci levels with other technical analysis tools because this technique can occasionally fail to corroborate the signals. Importance Of Different Fibonacci Levels Expert traders claim that not every Fibonacci level behaves the same way on a price chart. Before using the instrument for trading, some regularities should be studied. Fibonacci levels and their importance in trading: 23.6 - weak, a clear confirmation is required to use it in trading. 38.2 - an important level, the price of the asset bounces from it for further consolidation. 50 is intermediate in importance between the two previous levels and gives a high probability of trigger. 61.8 - strong, like 38.2. 76.4 - 80.9 is a strong level as well. The likelihood of a profitable trade is quite high if we consider the strength of the levels, trade in line with the trend, weed out erroneous signals using a straightforward extra indicator, and avoid using low time frames. Additionally, it's critical to remember risk management and trading psychology's fundamental principles. Advice for using 38%, 50%, and 62% levels effectively Stretched between the trend's minimum and maximum, a grid is drawn on the graph. On the charts, three to four separate time frames with longer value movements can be displayed in various colors. Numerous Fibonacci levels will be displayed on the graph, allowing for analysis. Usually several of them exactly coincide on various time scales, therefore they are regarded as significant support/resistance levels. These three can be utilized to enter positions and exit open ones because fibonacci numbers have potentially important levels. These price retreat levels by themselves are not what drives price movement; if this line doesn't have the appropriate support, it will simply go to the next. More accurate signals are produced by combining Fibonacci with other tools (such as Moving Averages, trading channels, reversal patterns, etc.). A significant resistance/support level is 62%. When it is attained, the price frequently starts to vary erratically. When the price surges past the 62% level and moves on to the 70–75% retracement level (before returning to the 62% level), you can place an order. When two to three further crossover signals are received, trades can be initiated from deep retracement levels. It is preferable to avoid entering if there are no cross confirmations. It's also a good idea to keep in mind that once the correctional movement reaches the 62% pullback level, it may go on to reach 100% in the chosen time frame and stop the trend. Fibonacci Levels: How to Use Them in Forex Trading Fibonacci levels can be used relatively easily. The most crucial levels in forex trading are 23.6% and 38.2%, 61.8% and 76.4%. They are used to identify price pullbacks; when one appears on the chart, one should wait for a favorable price before joining the impulse (enter the movement at the moment of a pullback). When there is a significant market movement, the asset's price can drop by up to 23.6%, 38.2%, or even 50%. These ranges are regarded as ideal. Price increases of 61.8% or more may signal the beginning of a trend reversal. The Fibonacci levels should be drawn correctly: -Finding the price impulse. -Plotting the grid on the chart. -The expectation of a pullback to 23.6% or 38.2% or 50% to enter the market. -When there is no pullback, the price keeps moving, updating the lows/maximums, it is worth pulling over the grid based on new local extrema. -In this case, it is important not so much to determine the levels as to understand whether the current price movement is a correction concerning the previous one or the beginning of a new trend. When Fibonacci Correction Levels Do Not Work Fibonacci levels are not 100% reliable signals; they are more like rough guidelines that give information about the movement that is likely to occur. Fibonacci levels can also be broken occasionally, just like support/resistance levels can. There are many exceptions to the rules, therefore it is advisable to check the signals with additional tools and to take the maximum precautions when opening any position. The levels need to be carefully worked, refined, and filtered on a regular basis. Sometimes levels might be crossed, and the bounce occurs at 61.8 instead of 50%; other times, the price skips levels and views essential ones as weak and unimportant ones as important. Because of all these features, it is important to be able to combine different tools in a strategy and constantly gain experience trading with the selected tools. Conclusion The suggested strategy broadens the potential uses for trading with Fibonacci levels. You can use it to your advantage so that practically any corrective movement—not just ones that conclude at 38.2% or 61.8%—will be beneficial. You must be able to accept what the market offers you since it doesn't always move that well.
Education
by FOREXN1
15
Some simple DCA idea. Maybe a bit better than the average one ?Hello, everyone. This is my first idea, so please pardon me if anything goes wrong. With the bear knocking at the door a while ago, it seems that everything goes down. So maybe we should embrace the investor side ... The boring but rewarding path. On bear markets, everyone accumulates. The DCA it seems a viable option, as they say : "Time in the market beats timing the market". We could DCA by volume profile, Fibonacci retracements, or several other techniques. But why going so "complex" when we can make everything simple ? On Crypto, it's tested that we will see at least 6 consecutive "30% drops" after the latest "30% drop", if not even more. Influenced on this idea by our regretted mathematician, Mr. Fibo ... And applying it to the charts, I just have a new indicator with an embedded strategy inside. In order to do everything right , I am asking the community to give me feedback. And if there is a real demand for my creation, I will respond accordingly :) The questions will be : 1. Do you think this strategy will bring you profits ? If so, do you want to try my indicator for easier backtesting ? 2. How useful do you think it will be a trading automation website, to be launched in 2023 ? Dedicated to Risk/Reward ratio trades, but also containing this idea ? I am humbly awaiting your response, so ... Let's help each other ! Best regards, Ionuț
Education
by dogaruionut1993
3
Nov2022 - BTC (3D) - Next Peak $200-250k by 2025 + Risk FactorsDear anons, Provided another longterm projections based on past BTC peaks, dated back to 2017 & 2021, respectively. 💡Summary: NEXT PEAK > time target: mid/Dec 2024 > price target: $200k, 220k, 250k **factors affecting targets marked on-chart .. 💬 Extra Note: with various forms of hidden/blatant power wrestles ongoing btw China & US dat includes COVID plandemic aka engineered supply shock & globe-wide inflation Fed rate hikes aka exporting inflation everywhere else by weaponizing Dollar Ukraine war aka engineered gas & food inflation China zero-covid lockdowns aka weaponizing supply chain who knows wats next... Taiwan? CBDC's? Plandemic 2.0? based on above ongoing or potential macro developments, we're likely to overshoot on next peak target, with high certainty. think: $250k in REAL terms w depreciating dollar... ;p See you in 2025! cheers~ 🥂🔥
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by jeanne_k
1
JAPAN hit by covid cases and the economy contracted 1,2%Japan GDP growth drops 1,2% YoY, and it is followed by a increase in covid cases In the chart we can see: 76,4% FIbo could be the next support, because has already been tested the line after the breakout occured at 9AM GMT, and the top line of descending channel was tested twice after that, followed by bullish candles crossing EMA MACD and Signal is already above de 0%, and we can look at RSI, and it seems to be strong signal above 50
Long
by AFCapital21
Crude oil correction is over, time to go longHi traders, Today we want to talk about crude oil. We forecast that the correction of the oil initiated on March 2022 is over and we already have started wave III in the cycle degree (orange). These are the 2 main reasons 1- The expected minimum level for the WXY correction was reached (87.086). We can see clearly that the price has bounced from the Inflexion Zone, the green area. Therefore, we do not need to go further down to consider the WXY structure complete 2- The RSI trendline has been clearly broken. It is one sign that the new bullish cycle has started. We cannot discard the option that oil makes another low, but we are quite sure the inflection zone will be respected and therefore, crude oil correction is going to end above the 60 USD level. The last confirmation to ensure we are in the new bullish cycle is to break the highs made in march 2022, but it can take some time for that to happen and, meanwhile, we can take some long position trades trading the lower degree cycles (or Timeframes) structures. Ideally, you bought Crude oil in the inflection area, but in case you did not, once the price breaks the 94.039, which is the last high created in October, we will be looking for another long opportunity if a clear corrective structure is detected. We will keep you updated. Always keep in mind that risk management is, at least, as important as the entry-level or the SL. Remember the quote “If you do not manage the risk, you will not have any risk to manage” The market is always repeating the same type of defined structures. There are only two main wave types: the motive wave and when the motive wave ends it starts a corrective wave. Within them, there are only 3 motive waves structures (Impulse, leading diagonal, and ending diagonal ) and 5 main types of corrective structures (ABC, WXY, Flats, triangle, WXYXZ (triple correction)) Learning them and being able to spot them in the price action graphs will completely change the way you trade as these structures will provide entry point areas, invalidation levels, and targets for the trade. Have a safe and profitable trading day Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it is only the explanation of what we are going to do and it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by TradingtheRightSide
SP500 Short OpportunityHi traders, SP 500 is in a corrective cycle that started at the beginning of 2022. We do expect further down to end the WXY corrective structure. This will create new lows and it will break down the 3480 level. Considering that, we can take advantage of it by trading the end of B in the intermediate degree (blue) and riding the whole wave C before ending the corrective cycle WXY of wave 2 and starting the new bullish cycle. Short potential idea: Entry: 4144 SL: 4442 Target: 3210 Risk: max 2% of your account Always keep in mind that risk management is, at least, as important as the entry-level or the SL. Remember the quote “If you do not manage the risk, you will not have any risk to manage” The market is always repeating the same type of defined structures. There are only two main wave types: the motive wave and when the motive wave ends it starts a corrective wave. Within them, there are only 3 motive waves structures (Impulse, leading diagonal , and ending diagonal ) and 5 main types of corrective structures (ABC, WXY, Flats, triangle, WXYXZ (triple correction)) Learning them and being able to spot them in the price action graphs will completely change the way you trade as these structures will provide entry point areas, invalidation levels, and targets for the trade. Have a safe and profitable trading day Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it is only the explanation of what we are going to do and it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by TradingtheRightSide
How to use Fibonacci Retracement ⁉️ ‼️ Forex traders use Fibonacci retracements to pinpoint where to place orders for market entry, taking profits and stop-loss orders. Fibonacci levels are commonly used in forex trading to identify and trade off support and resistance levels. After a significant price movement up or down, the new support and resistance levels are often at or near these trend lines . Usually the price retracts to 50% or untile OTE (0.62, 0.705, 0.79) before another impulse movement occurs.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
XAUUSD Fibo retracament 38,2; 23,6; 0,523,6% we have the main resistance 38,2% we had the last support that already is the new resistance, and the 50% the support, with some shadows candles testing it. If 0,5 is crossed this have a big probability of being the next resistance. We believe two options of testing the support and resitance, however the 0,382 seems to be a strong resistance, tested several times, moretheless the 0,5 zone will be tested again Also if you look at 1H tf you'll see the EMA had also crossed the bb middle line, resulting in a short position for Gold
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AFCapital21
Simple forecasting with Fibonacci. What to do?I have plotted the monthly, and weekly and also zoomed in on the daily time frame to get a better view of it. The zone marked are zones that CLUSTERS the daily fibo together with weekly and monthly. There are 4 things to do before you place a trade on it. 1) Wait and let the market touch or come inside the marked zone 2) Wait 3) A bullish candle needs to close above the marked zone 4) Wait for a pullback which I prefer or you can instantly enter the market. If there is no bullish candle that closes above the zone and continues breaking the zone, expect it to go lower. Don't guess, follow what the market tells you to do. You can swing this trade all the way to 2026.
TVC:DJILong
by Muhammad_syafiee
10
Divergence Critical position on AUDCAD. the trend is actually bullish but instead we shorted. why? because, mitigation on the recent supply zone is stronger compared to the buyer side. alternatively, the formation is also divergent by RSI as well as AO. most of the time, you will see when a higher high is form there is a new trend to the upside but at some conjunction where this phrase is invalid, is where this kind of setup is brought up. However, we cannot solely depend on one perspective and for a better risk management i would like for it to drop and make a potential retest to the current price level. thanks.
Short
by Lavimystic