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Fibonacci

Mexican Peso Under PressureThe Mexican peso has posted three consecutive sessions of losses against the U.S. dollar, signaling a marked erosion in investor confidence. Particularly striking is the fact that this decline has occurred even as the dollar trades in negative territory on Thursday, highlighting the inherent weakness of the peso during the session. Two key factors appear to be driving this downward trend: on the one hand, markets are pricing in an aggressive new rate cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), and on the other, emerging external trade risks are further clouding the outlook for the local currency. Later today, Banxico is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 50 basis points, maintaining its aggressive monetary policy easing cycle. If confirmed, this would mark the second consecutive cut of this magnitude, lowering the cost of money to 9% from the current 9.5%. It's worth recalling that during the last tightening cycle, the rate reached a historic high of 11.25%, meaning the cumulative easing would total 225 basis points with this cut. This decision comes in a context marked by persistently high inflation observed in March and continued economic weakness. While looser monetary policy aims to stimulate economic activity, it also adds downward pressure on the peso, already weakened by external factors. Compounding the situation is a challenging trade backdrop. Mexico posted a trade surplus of $2.21 billion in February, reversing January’s deficit. However, this surplus is worrisome, as it was driven largely by a sharp drop in imports rather than a strong rebound in exports, underscoring a structural weakness in domestic demand. Particularly alarming is the performance of the automotive sector, with exports falling 15.2% in February. Shipments to the United States—Mexico’s main trading partner—declined 10.7%, while exports to other international markets plunged 40.2%. This vulnerability is exacerbated by the recent announcement by President Donald Trump of a 25% tariff on vehicle and auto parts imports, generating renewed uncertainty around the future of Mexico-U.S. trade relations. The combination of internal factors such as weak domestic demand, Banxico’s monetary easing cycle, and mounting international trade uncertainty—particularly in a key sector like automotive—paints a complex and challenging outlook for the Mexican peso in the coming months. Thus, markets appear to be anticipating that this storm could continue weighing on the peso, increasing the risk of further depreciation against the U.S. dollar. The Mexican currency is undoubtedly in a vulnerable position, awaiting greater clarity from both domestic and external fronts. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
ShibaInu SHIB price analysisNow the price of CRYPTOCAP:SHIB is at the top of the Buy zone. But do we want to buy this asset in our portfolio: more likely no than yes. Well, who already has #ShibaInu purchased, then he can only wait for a miracle in the form of at least x2 growth by the summer of 2025, to the range of $0.000029-0.000030 Or maybe OKX:SHIBUSDT price will repeat the "feat" of its older brother CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ? 👇 The patterns of price behavior on the global chart are quite similar, what do you think ?
by P_S_trade
AUDUSD 110 buy setup!!The current market structure shows a strong alignment for a potential upward movement, forming a double bottom at a significant support level. This pattern respects both the structural levels and Fibonacci retracement levels. With important news scheduled for release today at 8 PM, particularly positive developments for the dollar could influence market direction. Given the risk-to-reward ratio, it appears favorable to consider positioning for an upward trend. follow me for more breakdown
Long
by ShinForex1
US100 - Bullish Continuation Inside Ascending ChannelThis TradingView post showcases a technical analysis of the US100 (Nasdaq 100 Index) on the 4-hour timeframe. The chart highlights a well-defined ascending channel, reflecting the current bullish structure. Price action is seen retracing after touching the upper boundary of the channel, moving towards a key region of interest labeled as "IFVG" (Imbalance Fair Value Gap), where potential demand is expected. The analysis predicts a retracement to the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement zone, aligning with a confluence of support levels within the channel. A potential bullish reversal is anticipated at this level, aiming for a continuation towards new highs near the upper boundary of the channel. The green projection line illustrates the anticipated path of price action. This setup combines channel dynamics, Fibonacci levels, and market structure concepts to identify a favorable trade opportunity.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Louigi_24
52
Gold Price Outlook: Key Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Potential PriceThis 4-hour chart of Gold/USD highlights a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone in the $2,960 - $2,980 range. The chart outlines two potential scenarios: 1. A bullish reaction with a price push toward the $3,040 resistance level. 2. A bearish move breaking below the FVG, targeting the $2,880 support zone. Traders should monitor price action within the FVG for confirmations, with upcoming economic events marked at the bottom as potential catalysts.
FX:XAUUSD
by Louigi_24
14