US500/SPX morning analysisBearish analysis of US500/SPX.
Weekly RSI with bearish divergence.
Median line of pitchfork remains untagged, implying move down towards October 2022 low.
Convergence of fib levels/resistance at 6123.9-6144.4; length of move from October 2022 low is the same length as move from March 2020 low to January 2022 high, ATH with near-perfect tag of 2 fib channel expansion projected from January 2022 high to Octobe 2022 low.
Fibonacci
UNI (Uniswap); my notes for long-termIn the short term, there may be a drop to the $6.5 - $8 range, but in the long term, $14 and $28 are important. I consider these prices (now) and the $6.5 - $8 range as a buying opportunity. $14 is the first profit-taking area. If $14 proves to be strong support, I will update my profit-taking targets to $28 - 45 - 70.
In summary, I am watching the movements on the trend in the chart. $14 and $28 are very important, both are 0.618 fib levels. If it exhibits the behavior I expect here and there are good entries in terms of spot CVD, my targets are as I noted above.
This is not investment advice.
EURJPY - The 0.618 Fibonacci zone acting as resistanceThe EURJPY pair is one of the most interesting assets to watch.
Overall, the long-term trend has shifted from strongly bullish to neutral since the highs of July 2024. However, we can observe that each successive bullish rebound is reaching lower highs.
With the ECB lowering interest rates and the recent rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, a rebalancing is gradually taking place. As a result, at best, we can expect a range-bound movement between 156.00 and 164.00 in the coming weeks, and at worst, a sustained decline in the exchange rate in favor of the yen.
Holding yen long-term is not attractive from a swap perspective, but in the short term, attempting bearish rebounds is more interesting.
Here, I initiated a short trade, betting on a continuation of the downtrend after the pair rebounded from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone. Historically, this level is significant and acts as resistance when trends establish themselves.
BITCOIN → Price is in consolidation, but there are bullish signsBINANCE:BTCUSD broke resistance and gave a 4% momentum, it is not enough yet, but we have triggers and key zones. Price is still in consolidation, but it is likely that spring may be close.
You may ask - why are there two scenarios here? Up↑ and down↓ (before growth) ?
Well, the price is in consolidation and we have no clear assumptions in which direction the price will go. But we have key levels and zones, price behavior relative to them will tell us where the price will go.
So, let's get to the bottom of it!
Fundamentally , there is a small but important nuance: This week Trump said: “I am done with the war against cryptocurrencies”.
Followed by almost $ 1bn dollars flowing into binance. Is someone getting ready for something?)
1) Technically, we have a trigger for further growth: $99000 - $99300 zone. If the bulls hold the price above the previously broken descending line, the price will head to attack the trigger in the medium term. A breakdown and price consolidation above 99K could trigger a rally.
2) But, chances of reaching 90-91K before rising are still high. If the price continues to test 94.8 - 95K and gradually push through this zone, everything will become obvious. In this case we will wait for a retest of 90K and further growth.
Resistance levels: 99200, 102700
Support levels: 94800, 91280, 90К
On the daily and weekly timeframe we can see that the price is forming a strong consolidation after a strong growth. Globally, this is a positive sign for a continuation of growth, but locally, inside the range, set-ups can be both short and long.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Retest of trend support before the NEWS FX:XAUUSD is forming a false breakdown of the lower boundary of consolidation and support of the uptrend within the correction. Traders are waiting for S&P Global PMI indices in the US.
The gold price has rolled back from the record $2,955, but still retains chances for growth continuation. The decline is due to profit taking as traders prepare for the release of the S&P Global PMI indices in the US.
The PMI data may affect the expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Nevertheless, a possible price drop on the back of strong PMI data could be short-lived if Trump's new tariff plans reignite demand for safe-haven assets.
While gold may continue to correct, any drawdowns are likely to be seen as a near-term buying opportunity
Resistance levels: 2933, 2939, 2946, 2955
Support levels: 2924, trend support
A false breakdown of the uptrend support is forming. If the bulls hold their defenses above the key area, gold may continue its rise in the short to medium term. But, the short-term outlook depends on the news
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY → Retest of key resistance before fallingFX:USDJPY breaks the bullish structure of the market. Dolla in the correction phase has a favorable impact on the market. The currency pair is forming a retest of the previously broken trendline after a strong impulse
The yen reached a 10-week high on Thursday, causing the USDJPY pair to fall to 149.5. Investors are looking for safe-haven assets due to increased trade tensions caused by Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy.
The Japanese currency received additional support due to expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which will increase its attractiveness for investors
For now, the focus is on the 0.5 fibo resistance zone, 150.95, and previously broken upside support
Support levels: 149.5, 148.64
Resistance levels: 150.95, 151.4
Most likely, before a possible fall, the price will be able to test the previously broken support, and now it is resistance 150.95 - 151.4. False breakdown of the key Fibo zones may provoke further fall.
Regards R. Linda!
QQQ: Trend's 3 Frames of ReferenceTrend's Three Frames of Reference:
The Fibonacci channels in the chart are constructed based on the COVID low (March 2020) and the 2023 low, with a projection that aligns with the late 2021 top as a key reference point. This approach sets the direction of the Fibonacci channels in an upward-sloping trajectory, capturing the broader bullish trend while identifying key areas of support and resistance.
The trend structure follows a long-term ascending Fibonacci framework, where the lower blue regions (0.786, 0.618 levels) represent historical support zones, aligning with past market corrections.
The mid-range levels (0.5, 0.382) act as consolidation zones where price action frequently stabilizes before continuing its trend.
The uppermost red-orange zones (0.236 and above) highlight overextension zones, aligning with the late 2021 high, where the market previously faced strong resistance before entering a corrective phase in 2022.
By using the COVID low and the 2023 low as anchors, the Fibonacci channels effectively map the market’s trajectory and provide insight into potential future movements. The alignment with the late 2021 top further reinforces these levels as critical points for potential price reactions, making this an effective tool.
In this alternative Fibonacci channel configuration, the direction is adjusted to align with a steeper bullish trajectory, possibly emphasizing a different perspective on trend structure and momentum. The key anchors for the Fibonacci channels remain rooted in the 2023 low and recent higher highs, creating a more aggressively inclined channel structure.
This Fibonacci channel configuration differs from the previous ones by focusing on a shorter-term structure with a narrower range and downward-sloping alignment. It is anchored from the recent 2023 low to the subsequent high, with Fibonacci retracement levels applied to identify key support and resistance zones. Leaving this trend configuration is a signal that price goes for bigger range movement.
By utilizing three Fibonacci channel references, this method enhances price forecasting accuracy, confirms key support/resistance areas, and adapts to different trading styles. The combination of macro, momentum, and retracement-based analysis ensures that both investors and traders can make informed decisions based on multi-frame confluence zones.
Long-term investors should watch Configuration 1 for sustainable support levels. Momentum traders can rely on Configuration 2 for buying dips near 0.5 and selling near 0.236. Short-term traders should focus on Configuration 3 for managing pullbacks and breakout confirmations.
Next Fib target is the 1.618 at 100KIf there is a consolidation here expect GETTEX:48K Pre-Halving sell off, If no sell of now, then the 1.618 is the target and possibly seeing a distribution event at that point, and possibly 32% retrace back to the 68k area. from there the next stop will be the 2.618 fib which is the at $154k yielding 123% gains from 68k. a possible sell off expected... let's see how close the money face is, which is the convergence of two trend lines that are from previous low to high events. overall, the 4.236 is expected for the session highs of this halving cycle around 240k, although this would be the lower estimate as historical cycles have far exceeded the 4.236, yet the last cycle is exactly where the top was put in and we may see more traditional fibs being respected now that big money is playing the game. BTC topped out at 1T in 2021, and may top out at 10T next, estimating a Price in the high 600ks if that happens. this chart is only intended to predict the future supports and resistances for swing trading through the next 1-2 years.
Levels to consider for Crude oil Futures CL1!On this video i discuss what I think is the next long/short to consider and illustrate how not to get caught up in the noise of low probability setups .
Currently we are trading inside of a range between the POC and the VAH .
I look back on previous highs in the chart and how we reacted at those levels and what I potentially see looking forward . My bias overall is expecting more downside but I dont marry that one bias and simply look at the PA from both sides with a focus on having a plan in the event of a move up or Down .
Google Wave Analysis – 21 February 2025
- Google under bearish pressure
- Likely to fall to support level 175.00
Google is under bearish pressure after the earlier breakout of the support zone between the key support level 182.20 (former monthly high from November), the support trendline of the daily up channel from September and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from September.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active corrective wave 4 of the intermediate impulse wave (C) from September.
Google can be expected to fall to the next support level 175.00 (lower border of the upward gap from December).
American Express Wave Analysis – 21 February 2025
- American Express broke the support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 290.00
American Express recently broke the support zone between the support trendline of the extended daily up channel from August and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the c-wave of the active minor ABC corrective wave 4 from the middle of January.
American Express can be expected to fall to the next support level 290.00 (former monthly low from January and the target for completing the active ABC wave 4).
GBP/USD at Key Resistance: Potential Reversal or Continuation?The GBP/USD 15-minute chart indicates a strong uptrend, with price action forming a **Crab harmonic pattern**, suggesting a potential overextension. The pair has reached a key resistance zone at **1.26323**, aligning with significant Fibonacci levels, with the **Harmonic Optimal Point (HOP) at 1.26469** acting as a potential reversal area.
If a pullback occurs, the first downside targets are 1.26127 and 1.25993 , while the ** 200 EMA ** below may provide further support. A sustained break above 1.26469 could signal continued bullish momentum. Traders should monitor price action for confirmation before positioning accordingly.
GBP/USD Market Analysis – Bearish Reversal from Harmonic PatternThe GBP/USD pair has completed a Crab harmonic pattern , with price reaching the 1.618 extension level and reacting strongly at resistance near 1.2617. The rejection suggests a potential bearish reversal.
Initial downside targets (T1 and T2) are at 1.2515 and 1.2445. If price sustains below 1.2593 (AB=CD level), further downside is likely. However, a breakout above the high could invalidate the bearish setup. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before taking positions.
EUR/USD Market Analysis – Bearish Reversal from Key ResistanceThe EUR/USD pair has formed a bearish Bat harmonic pattern , completing near the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level. Price action has reacted strongly at this resistance, indicating a potential reversal. The first target (T1) is around 1.0394 , while the second target (T2) is near 1.0325 , aligning with key Fibonacci levels. If the resistance holds, a bearish move towards these targets is likely. However, a sustained break above the high may invalidate the bearish setup. Traders should monitor price action closely for confirmation.
CADJPY Wave Analysis – 21 February 2025
- CADJPY broke support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 104.00
CADJPY currency pair recently broke the support zone between the key support level 105.40 (which has been reversing the price from September) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of wave (2) from August.
The breakout of this support zone should accelerate the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (3) from November.
Given the strong daily downtrend and the bullish yen sentiment seen today, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 104.00.
TSLA Short - IntradayWith bearish indices, and displacement in TSLA on H4 time frame the narrative was bearish sentiment from that point of interest. As soon as I saw rejection from the POI, I waited for confirmation of my setup in the 15m and entry on the 5m, with 1: 3.3 risk to reward. The RR target was based on the sell stops resting below creating liquidity with Previous Day Low and Sellside Liquidity.