Detailed Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index – 4-Hour TimefrWhat triggered the recent movements?
As per analyst analysis, since February 20, 2025, the S&P 500 Index began a gradual decline, forming a clear downtrend that resulted in a total drop of approximately 21.14%. This sharp retreat was primarily driven by mounting investor concerns over President Donald Trump's foreign trade policies, particularly the increased tariffs on several countries, which led to widespread fear and uncertainty in financial markets, concerns about a potential global recession, slowing international trade, weakened economic growth and resurgence of inflationary pressure.
After reaching the key support level at 4798.58, its lowest point since January 2024, the index saw a brief consolidation phase, before a major market-moving development occurred: the announcement of a 90-day suspension of tariffs on selected countries by the U.S. President.
As per analyst interpretation, this event acted as a turning point, triggering a sharp rally of nearly 10% in a single session, which effectively broke the downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe and led to the formation of a new high (2), surpassing the last corrective peak (1). This confirmed a bullish reversal on the 4-hour chart.
What’s next on the 4-hour chart?
Although the index has shifted into an upward trajectory, a short-term pullback appears more likely at this stage, especially following the failure of trough (3) to break above the previous peak (2) at 5487 – a sign of weak bullish momentum.
If the price breaks below the 5107.40 level, a further decline toward the 4948.10 support level is expected. This level could serve as a potential rebound zone, where bullish traders might regain control and resume the uptrend, possibly retargeting the 5487 peak.
When is the bullish scenario invalidated?
According to analysts, the current bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price breaks below 4798.58 and confirms a 4-hour candle close beneath it. This would strongly indicate a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish, prompting a reassessment of the medium-term trend.
Important Note:
This analysis strictly reflects price action and technical patterns on the 4-hour timeframe only.
