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Fibonacci

CYCLE 4 ATH Mapping DETAILED - Price Levels & Time Frame AnalysiAs we now have confirmation of the election result and following our assumption this will lead to seasonal trends of a Santa rally for stocks and bonds as we close out the year, it is now worth mapping this scenario in more detail. This post looks at CYCLE 4 and maps where this cycle All Time High (ATH) may reach and when, base on historic Indicator behavior / Price Action / Measured Moves / Fib Extensions & Historical Past Cycle Lengths. Assuming BTC continues similar cyclic behavior to prior cycles. Please explore the below post interactively (which captures all discussed items) to review measured periods and to understand where items have come from with reference to this post. Historical Cycle Lengths Measuring from the Bottom to the top of each past cycle recorded the approx. number of days * Cycle 1 Bottom to ATH Top = ~ 742 Days * Cycle 2 & 3 Bottom to ATH Top = ~ 1,064 Days (For both Cycles) * Cycle 3 Bottom to 1st (Technical High - TH) Top = ~ 854 Days Plotting these on the chart (see blue dashed horizontal lines) it would be historically possible to see CYCLE 4 ATH land between December 2nd 2024 to March 24th 2025, and historically more likely between March 24th 2025 and October 20th 2024. It is noted the trend that cycles are increasing in length (particularly when measuring from ATH to ATH of previous and current cycles). The suggest time frames currently look reasonable, considering our Cycle Pivot Indictor (CPI), risk indicator, other charts we like to review for ATHs and current projected trend line channels etc. Fib Extensions Following analysis looks at the Fib Extensions from prior cycle top to current cycle bottom to estimate current cycle top. Please review the embedded post above if you are unsure how these have been calculated. * Cycle 2 ATH ($19,666) ~ reached just shy of golden pocket ratio of 2.618 ($20,382) * Cycle 3 TH ($64,895) & ATH ($69,000) ~ reached just above of golden pocket ratio of 1.618 - 1.65 ($61,327 - $65,047 respectively). If BTC hits the 1.618 golden pocket ratio extension again in Cycle 4, this would result in an ATH of $157,362. Measured moves suggest reaching these levels are possible, however they are considered the more bullish view of market possibilities at this point in time. It is noted the entire sequence drop in fib ratios from Cycle 2 to Cycle 3. While repeating this again would not make sense for this cycle, if we continue to half the difference for Cycle 4 we fall in the region of the 1.272 ($95,835) and 1.414 ($117,467) fib ratio regions. My current take on this analysis would be if BTC does exceed the 100K region, 117K may be a good target to look towards (just shy of the nice round number of 120K people could be targeting). If BTC struggles to make 100K then 95K might be the point where BTC has trouble.... Indictors * RSI - based on above, RSI on the weekly has just approached back into our uptrend region and heading into the overbought zone which it can stay for some time during the bull run period of the cycle. I would be looking to make sure BTC does not put in lower highs in the RSI as bearish divergences in this region in the past has formed in the making of Prior Cycles ATHs. Currently the RSI looks to have consolidated enough over the March - October 2024 period to make a decent run at finishing off the bull period in Cycle 4 (it has done what we wanted from an investor point of view). * Modified Osilator Wave Trend - similar analysis to the RSI is observed with historic behavior in this indicator. Note historically this indicator can run in the overbought region for some time during bull runs and establishing ATHs * MA OSCILLATOR Risk Profile Indicator - This indicator is at the right historically to suggest we are in the start of the exponential period of the bull run (after a pullback consolidation post the halving period). ATHs in cycles have been reached during 'Red Zone' price extension periods of my custom indicator. Hope the above makes sense. I intent to follow this up with some simpler analysis of other indicators.
by Brodie
Alikze »» FLOKI | Upward wave 5 scenario🔍 Technical analysis: Ascending wave 5 scenario - Ascending triangle corner pattern - In the 1W timeframe, a zigzag correction was preceded by an inability to break through the supply zone. - Zigzag modification has formed an ascending angle triangle pattern. - According to the bullish structure and behavior, it can have another bullish cycle. - Currently, it has left the corner of the ascending triangle and has faced selling pressure in the supply area. - Therefore, it can break the supply zone after the pullback to the broken structure and move to the next supply zone. - This rising log can be wave 5 and the last wave of the rise, which can rise at least as much as the previous wave (wave 3). Or to be able to grow as much as the previous log. 💎Therefore, according to the size of the previous log, which has grown by more than a thousand percent, this log can grow by almost 1000 percent from the floor before the growth modification. ⚠️ Note: If the bottom is touched before, the zigzag correction will be complicated and the analysis will be invalid and need to be re-checked. ⚠️ »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:FLOKIUSDT
Long
by alikze
2
Bitcoin Full InterconnectednessIn fractal analysis the randomness of price levels can be justified with the chart's historic HL coordinates. We'll use the old structure below as a base for further cycle breakdown. There are another two fib lines derived from angled trends, the fibs of which rhyme with chaos behind price action and cycle formation: Steep fibs determine timing of high volatility change: Note that they rhymed with other fib local wave measurement: 2013 ATH ⇨ Covid19 low related to pre-covid local high determines exact levels of support and resistance during the correction of pandemic fueled bullrun What also deserves attention here is that direction of fibs which acted as support around 2019 and covid19 drop produces curve which mimics the support levels of 2023 growth. So crossing below the support curve would be seen as first sign of bear market. Till that it has a time for growth justified by chart-based parabolic curve. 2 fibs derived from chart shows a decade of price & time interconnectedness which adds validity of the colored base structure. This is important for scaling the fractal and estimating the boundaries of growth distinctive to the historic cycles.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
5
BTCUSD Short-Term Analysis for 12/11/2024Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and prices can fluctuate rapidly. Always consult multiple sources and conduct thorough research before making trading decisions. Time Frame: 1-hour Market Analysis: The market has taken inducement and currently the market is experiencing a pullback to the daily point of control at 84547.00 . Key Levels: Support: 84547.00 (Daily Point of Control) Last Support: 78506.00 Resistance: 92818.00-94924.00 (Confluence of Fib Channel and Gan Box) Local High: 89,993.00 EMAs: 50/100/200 EMA (Bullish alignment) Trading Bias: Moderately Bullish Main Reason: If price further dips to the last support, the trend may turn bearish. However, if price bounces back from the daily point of control at 84547.00 and breaks the local high, price could reach the above-given resistance 92818.00-94924.00, which is in confluence and intersection between the Fib channel and Gan Box. The price is still above 50/100/200 EMA, and RSI is still indicating bullish momentum. Join our Discord community! discord.gg
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by avatarfreak
EUR/GBP 4-Hour Bearish Continuation Trade PlanEUR/GBP on the 4-hour chart suggests a bearish continuation within a parallel channel. A Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the previous Lower High (LH) to the recent Lower Low (LL), highlighting potential resistance levels. An immediate sell order is placed at 0.8282, with a stop loss positioned above the last LH at 0.83418 to mitigate risk if the trend reverses. The parallel channel, showing consistent Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL), reinforces the bearish trend. For profit-taking, the first target (TP1) is set at 0.8222, and the second target (TP2) at 0.8162, aligning with the Fibonacci support levels. This setup confirms a continuation pattern, suggesting further downside within the established channel.
Short
by Naqash16046
Will TSLA Break Out and Reach $382?Disclaimer: This analysis is not a buy recommendation, nor a guarantee that the price will reach the mentioned targets. The goal is to share a technical perspective to provide useful information for traders and investors. In technical analysis, there are no absolute certainties, only scenarios based on historical patterns. The weekly chart of NASDAQ:TSLA is currently in a period of indecision, which could evolve into a new uptrend, possibly forming wave 3 of an upward movement. Entering after the confirmation of this trend would follow a classic technical analysis approach, as mentioned by John Murphy in the first chapter of Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets (page 4): "The primary goal of analyzing market price action through charts is to identify trends in their early stages for the purpose of trading in the direction of those trends." Target Projection for Wave 3 If the uptrend is confirmed, Murphy also describes a way to calculate the minimum target for wave 3 (chapter 13, page 345): "A minimum target for the top of wave 3 can be obtained by multiplying the length of wave 1 by 1.618 and adding that total to the bottom of wave 2." Applying this to the TSLA chart, the estimated target for wave 3 would be around $382.00 . Possible Weaker Trend? A factor that could reduce the expectation of reaching this target is also described by Murphy (chapter 13, page 346): "In a weaker trend, the maximum percentage retracement is usually 62%." The amplitude of wave 2 in TSLA shows a retracement between 66% and 78.6% , suggesting a possible weaker trend, which could decrease the probability of reaching the 1.618 target for wave 3. What do you think? Do you believe TSLA will develop an uptrend? If so, what could contribute to reaching the 1.618 target? Or does the retracement of wave 2 suggest a weaker trend? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s discuss the possible directions for TSLA’s price!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LuccasChartRoom
3
EURJPY 12/13-Nov-2024 Possible Day trading Idea EURJPY Day trading Idea 1.EURJPY is in a bullish trend 2.I am looking for buys on a HL 3.Current trend is Pro trend 4.Price recently broke above previous H, formed a new H. left out a clean consolidation range before breakout. (In higher timeframes this will appear as OB) By highlighting the recent BOS; HH; recently formed HL, i can apply the FIB levels to identify the possible entry point where price has already reacted to it. but going down to LTF we can identify a MSS, and another possible area for entry. Proper risk management can be applied, This is a B setup trade. BOS-->HH-->HL---> Look for discounted prices for HL
Long
by Ocean98
1st wave upwards?Analyzing the NYMEX:CL1! (Crude Oil Futures) chart, the current level may serve as a potential reversal point due to several factors: Higher High Formation: On November 7th, the price established a higher high. If the current candle forms a higher low, it could signal the continuation of an upward trend. Bullish SMA Crossover: A few days ago, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed above the 50-day SMA, indicating a bullish momentum shift. Seasonality and Macroeconomic Factors: Historically, crude oil exhibits bullish seasonality starting in the second half of December. Additionally, global instability and the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts may contribute to higher commodity prices. These elements suggest a favorable outlook for crude oil prices in the near term.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by p4917
JM Financial: 6-Year Breakout with Huge Weekly Volume!🚀 JM Financial: 6-Year Breakout with Huge Weekly Volume! 🚀 Current Market Price: 119 Stop Loss: 85 Target: 170 JM Financial has achieved a major breakout after 6 years, with substantial weekly volume. The stock recently completed a box breakout above 112 and is now standing above the key neckline at 118, which it broke in September 2018 due to a head and shoulder pattern breakdown. 📈 Strategy: Consider pyramiding as the stock crosses 129 for potential gains. 📉 Risk Management: Use a stop loss at 85 to manage risk effectively. 📊 Disclaimer: As a non-SEBI registered analyst, I recommend conducting thorough research or seeking advice from financial professionals before making investment decisions. Exciting times ahead! #MarketAnalysis #JMFinancial #TechnicalAnalysis #Breakout #InvestmentOpportunities #StockMarket
NSE:JMFINANCILLong
by satyam15
SAMHI HOTEL Promising SmallCap Opportunity in the Hotel Industry🚀 Samhi Hotel: Promising Small-Cap Opportunity in the Hotel Industry! 🚀 Current Market Price: 207 Stop Loss: 183 Target: 238 The hotel industry is showing strength, and Samhi Hotel is no exception. Technically, it’s looking poised for a strong move. A close above the Fibonacci level of 203 signals a potential long opportunity. 📉 Risk Management: Ensure to manage risk with a stop loss at 183. 📊 Disclaimer: As a non-SEBI registered analyst, I recommend conducting thorough research or seeking advice from financial professionals before making investment decisions. Exciting times ahead! #MarketAnalysis #SamhiHotel #SmallCapStocks #HotelIndustry #InvestmentOpportunities #TechnicalAnalysis
NSE:SAMHILong
by satyam15