WMT ready to resume drop?My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I have been wrong many times before so I will just take this thing in stages and see if it plays out. After this massive decline, we should be in for a great market rally of many decades. I am expecting the market to end its recent rally this week. The current rarely would be about a week in length depending when it began for individual stocks. The rally has done a few important things with its slow and prolonged upward movement, mainly prevents a wave 3 signal from occurring during the next decline.
My wave 3 indicator tends to signal wave 3s and 3 of 3s. See my scripts for the specifics of the indicator. If the market had a short wave 4 up and then a sharp or prolonged drop during wave 5, a new wave 3 signal would occur which violates the currently placed Minor wave 3 (yellow 3). Allowing separation from the current wave 3 signal enables wave 5 to drop quick or slow.
This chart applies select movement extensions based on wave 1's movement on the left and then another based on wave 3's movement on the right. I keep the values between 0%-100% on the chart for wave 2s and 4s retracements of the preceding wave's movement for reference even though the retracement values would be inverted.
Specifically for WMT, Minor wave 3 was longer than wave 1, which does not place a maximum length on wave 5. Assuming wave 4 ends on Thursday or Friday, Minor wave 5 could be a week or longer. In that time, at the very least it should drop below wave 3's bottom of 83.87. Using some basic movement extensions, it will likely go lower. The 5 wave lower pattern for this fifth wave is hypothetical, but a bottom could occur between 74-79. Once we bottom, we should see another rally over a few weeks. I will forecast what that could look like as Intermediate wave 1 nears its end.
Fibonacci
TRUP/USDT in the coming hoursHello everyone, let's look at the 4H TRUMP to USDT chart, in this situation we can see how it has come out of the triangle on top and currently we can see a fight with the current resistance at $11.45, in a situation when it comes out of it on top it can go towards the targets at the levels:
T1 = $11.89
T2 = $12.58
Т3 = $13.08
Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to fall:
SL1 = $11.06
SL2 = $10.40
SL3 = $9.76
When we look at the RSI indicator we can see how on the 4h interval we have come out of the range on top, which however in the short term may give an attempt to recover the price or a temporary sideways trend.
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of Fed rate meeting...FX:XAUUSD goes into consolidation 3038 - 3024 before the news - Fed rate meeting. The situation is generally predictable, but gold is reacting to rising geopolitical risks.
Gold is stabilizing before the Fed decision , markets are waiting for the data. The regulator is expected to keep rates, but Powell's forecasts will determine further dynamics.
“Hawkish” tone of the Fed may lead to the strengthening of the dollar and gold correction.
“Dovish” signals about economic risks will support the growth of metal prices.
Geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariffs continue to have an impact.The market is preparing for high volatility on the background of the Fed's decision and events in the world
Resistance levels: 2038, 2045
Support levels: 3024, 3015, 3004.9
Several scenarios can be considered for trading:
Breakdown of resistance 3038 - 3045, consolidation of the price above the level with subsequent growth to 3050 - 3060.
Or wait for the reaction to the news and with a possible breakdown of support to look for strong levels to trade a false breakdown, for example 3024, 3015, 3005.
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY → Resistance retest (wedge) before the Fed meetingFX:USDJPY is forming a correction to trend resistance as part of the dollar index consolidation. An interesting situation is forming which could be a continuation of the downtrend.
Fundamentally, today is an important day. The FED interest rate meeting is ahead. Traders are waiting, the dollar is consolidating at this time. Most likely the rate will remain unchanged, but in this key everyone is interested in Powell's comments on monetary policy and their future actions.
USDJPY at this time is forming a correction to the bearish trend resistance, before the news the currency pair may test the resistance conglomerate: a wedge, 0.79 fibo, or an orderblock located outside the channel
Resistance levels: 150.16, 150.95
Support levels: 148.92
False breakout of the resistance zone can provoke a fall, as well as breakdown of the support of the “wedge” with the subsequent consolidation of the price in the selling zone. The price may test the zone of interest at 147.6, 146.54.
Regards R. Linda!
What is Gold Waiting For? Is This the ATH 3045? In our group, we secured profits in two rounds when gold hit an all-time high of $3045. Currently, we are still focusing on selling at $3040-$3045, as this is the liquidity grab zone for sellers.
I believe we can still trade within the sideway range, and be cautious of the two liquidity sweep zones as I have marked in the image.
Sell Liquidity 3040-3045: We can place Sell Limit orders in this area.
Buy Liquidity 3020-3025: We can place Buy Limit orders in this area.
The reason for this sideway phase of gold is that the market is awaiting the Fed meeting at 1:30 AM tomorrow, March 20th. After that, a strong trend will emerge. My plan is still leaning towards the Buy side, as the market is currently concerned about a potential economic recession in the US.
Therefore, we can focus on making small profits during this sideway period and wait for the next upward wave.
Thank you for your review, and I hope you'll stay longer by pressing Follow.
ADAUSDT pump and gain expected only from supports below 0.5$We are looking for short-term dump and fall here and also some stop loss hunting first to the downside and soon after that we can expect start of gain and rise to the targets like 1.5$ and more like the green arrows mentioned on the chart.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
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SHIBUSDT near major daily support pump ahead soonAs we said before and we can see on chart major daily support here is 0.000005$ to 0.000010$ and we are looking for heavy pump for SHIBUSDT ASAP like the green arrows mentioned on the chart also remember we may have 1-2 months range zone first and then start of gain.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
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Gold bullish for the next yearsHello traders,
you will find all necessary informations in the chart above.
Even if we see drops in the near future, the long term outlook is quite fine!
Think about all the money printing, the financial crisis and the pandemic.
Save your wealth and stay healthy!
My opinion only, no financial advice.
NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 19 March 2025
- NZDUSD reversed from the resistance level 0.5820
- Likely to fall to support level 0.5750
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the strong resistance level 0.5820 (former strong support from the end of November).
The resistance level 0.5820 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from September.
Given the multi-month downtrend, NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.5750 (former support from February and the start of March).
USD Gains Ground as Markets Await the FOMC and New ProjectionsThe U.S. dollar is regaining ground ahead of the much-anticipated second monetary policy decision of the year by the Federal Reserve, after having been under pressure during the first half of the week. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a 0.4% gain, positioning itself as the strongest currency among major Forex market pairs on this key trading day.
Alongside the greenback’s strength, U.S. equity markets are also trading in positive territory, reflecting relative optimism ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. The federal funds rate, currently within a 4.25% to 4.50% range, is widely expected to remain unchanged, with interest rate futures assigning a 99% probability to this outcome.
However, while the rate decision is largely priced in, market attention will shift toward the Fed’s new economic projections, and most importantly, to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. I personally anticipate significant adjustments in the Fed’s estimates, which could trigger notable market reactions.
Specifically, I expect the Federal Reserve to lower its 2025 economic growth projections from the 2.1% forecasted last December, in response to a more challenging economic environment, where we have seen a weaker U.S. consumer and the impact of recent tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration. Additionally, inflation projections will be a key focus, especially as we have seen a derailment of long-term inflation expectations, a crucial factor in the inflation debate, which have now reached their highest level since 1993.
The so-called "dot plot" will likely indicate two rate cuts projected for this year, reflecting a slightly less dovish stance compared to the three cuts currently priced in by financial markets. This discrepancy could drive volatility in both the dollar and equities if market sentiment shifts to accommodate this less accommodative outlook.
The post-decision press conference will be, in my view, the most critical moment of the day. Jerome Powell will face tough questions regarding the Fed’s stance on the growing risk of an economic recession, exacerbated by uncertainty over the effectiveness of the White House’s new trade and fiscal policies. It will be crucial to hear how Powell balances an inflation-focused narrative with the surge in inflation expectations, a key factor for future monetary policy decisions.
Powell is likely to adopt a cautious approach, avoiding any firm commitments on the future direction of monetary policy, aiming to retain maximum flexibility in an uncertain economic environment. Finally, it wouldn’t be surprising if the term "stagflation" takes center stage in journalists’ questions, given the current backdrop of persistent inflationary pressures combined with increasing signs of economic slowdown.
In summary, while interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the Fed’s statements and projections will be critical in shaping the future direction of financial markets and the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance in this challenging economic environment.
USDJPY UPDATE 19th MARCH 2025The price is currently rising as anticipated. I took partial profits already since price surpassed half of what I expected.
I also moved Stoploss to 149.443 to protect the remaining open position just incase.
I hope you guys took the trade too. If not, do not panic as the market always gives new opportunities. STAY ALERT
REMINDER
1.Never get to confident as the market can always surprise you in ways you can't even imagine, so always use proper risk management.
2. We learn everyday.
BTCUSD Daily Chart AnalysisBTCUSD Daily Chart Analysis:
As you can see on the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture. We've witnessed a strong uptrend culminating in a high near $108,000, followed by a significant correction.
Key Levels:
Support: The $80,000 to $82,000 zone is proving to be a crucial support level.
Resistance: We have immediate resistance around $92,000 to $96,000, and the major resistance at the recent high of $108,000.
Technical Observations:
The recent pullback is testing the aforementioned support zone.
Crucially, I'm observing a bullish divergence on the RSI, indicating potential weakening of the downward momentum.
Additionally, a bullish MACD crossover is imminent, further reinforcing the possibility of a reversal.
Potential Scenarios:
If the $80,000 to $82,000 support holds, the bullish divergence and MACD crossover suggest a strong likelihood of a bounce. We could see a move towards the $92,000 to $96,000 resistance area. A successful break above that level could propel BTC back towards the $108,000 highs.
Conversely, a break below the $80,000 support would invalidate the bullish signals and likely lead to further downside, with potential targets around $76,000 and $72,000.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is currently presenting a compelling setup. The confluence of a key support test, bullish RSI divergence, and a potential MACD crossover suggests a high probability of a bullish reversal. However, risk management is paramount, and traders should be prepared for potential downside if the support fails.
Potential Bearish Flag in Super MicroSuper Micro Computer has bounced since November, but some traders may expect further downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the major slide that began last May. SMCI’s spike in February stalled at a 50 percent retracement of that move. The maker of AI servers also tried and failed to clear its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Those signals may confirm the longer-term trend is moving lower.
Next, the small rising channel so far in March could be viewed as a bearish flag.
Third, SMCI has tried to hold support at its 50-day SMA but yesterday closed under it.
Fourth, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained below the 21-day EMA. MACD is falling as well. Both of those patterns may reflect short-term bearish trends.
Finally, SMCI is one of the most active underliers in the options market. (TradeStation data shows it averaging more than 800,000 contracts per day in the last month.) That could help traders position for moves with calls and puts.
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$SPY March 19, 2025AMEX:SPY March 19, 2025
15 Minutes.
50% retracement done for the move 549 to 569
Foe the fall 569.71 to 559.07 563-564 is good levels to short.
But we have converging moving averages in 9,21,100 and 200. So 559 +- should be a strong support.
As of now i am looking for longs above 568.
Bears are about to revive, short gold!Gold has rebounded to around 3040 once again. It is undeniable that the risk of going long is gradually increasing. At this level, the primary strategy should be to avoid blindly chasing long positions in gold to mitigate the risk of a significant pullback.
Additionally, during the recent retracement, gold only briefly touched the 3023 level before rebounding. Given the insufficient depth of the pullback, this swift rebound suggests that gold may continue to test its short-term highs. Currently, there is no clear technical topping pattern, and the candlestick formations remain strong, indicating further upward potential. Gold could extend its gains toward the 3050-3060 range.
From a trading perspective, it may be prudent to consider short positions in the 3045-3055 range.Trading means that everything has results and everything has feedback. I have been committed to market trading and trading strategy sharing, striving to improve the winning rate of trading and maximize profits. If you want to copy trading signals to make a profit, or master independent trading skills and thinking, you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to copy trading strategies and signals
Open your eyes and watch the bear dance!Bros, I have clearly pointed out in the last article update that gold will continue to rise and hit the 3030-3040 area, and the highest will only reach around 3040; gold has risen to this area as expected, and has reached a maximum of around 3038.
I have doubled my short position in gold around 3038; gold has risen sharply due to fundamental support and has seriously deviated from the technical side, so the faster gold rises, the more dangerous it is! After the market calms down, gold may experience a deep retracement.
So I’m looking forward to when the bears dance next! And I am always optimistic about gold falling back to the 3015-3005 area!
Trading means that everything has results and everything has feedback. I have been committed to market trading and trading strategy sharing, striving to improve the winning rate of trading and maximize profits. If you want to copy trading signals to make a profit, or master independent trading skills and thinking, you can follow the channel at the bottom of the article to copy trading strategies and signals