Fibonacci
Markets hate tariffs but traders love discounts
SPX500 is down over 12.2% YTD
Volatility Index (VIX) is above 40 — elevated fear in the market
SPX support zone likely around 4,888
Historical patterns show strong rebounds near similar volatility spikes
This could be a prime entry point — keep your cash ready
With tariffs back in play, volatility could spike — stay ready for discounted entries
NKE: Macro structure [Monthly time frame]Price reached the top of the macro support: 56-27.
The correction from Nov'21 top has a picture perfect three-wave structure that has reached area of an ideal extension to finish itself (60-44 support).
Although, within the context of todays market uncertainty, recovery from this support zone, might still be a larger bounce before one more leg-down deeper into macro support
Best of trading and investing decision and thank you for you attention!
YM / Dow Jones - long term perspectiveOn the CBOT_MINI:YM1! weekly/monthly/quarterly chart, nothing is looking out of the ordinary as of right now.
No matter what timeframe you're looking at, all timeframes have to go through cycles of rise and fall, and this current panic is just a normal red candle on the quarterly/monthly charts.
After this monthly/quarterly pullback, I'm still expecting a push higher to reach at least 48k before any longer term weakness should set in, if at all.
I see $34k-$38k as a mid-term discount zone, with 42-48k as a mid-term premium zone, with 48k as a magnet of sorts for price to draw toward.
I have 2 scenarios I'm currently watching for:
MID-TERM PULLBACK: Bull market stays intact, Trump ISN'T actually Hitler :-), price sweeps under $38k and sets up bounce back toward 48k from there.
LONG-TERM PULLBACK: World falls apart, Trump IS actually Hitler :-), bear market commences, multiple quarterly red candles, price does a deep pullback to $27.5k before rebounding from there.
SCENARIO 1 (seems most likely):
SCENARIO 2 (seems very unlikely):
Mostly, I would just counsel people to have a plan. "If bull market stays intact, do XYZ. If bear market develops, do ABC."
EURAUD | H4 Market OutlookFUSIONMARKETS:EURAUD is approaching a buy area currently. It's a good opportunity to consider entering the market for potential gains.
Nasdaq Elliott Wave Update on Short Position ManagementIn this video, I go through exactly how I plotted the wave counts that I published on 3rd April (linked to this idea). I also show how to estimate price target using support and Fibonacci extensions. Lastly, I talk about trading productivity again and why I recommend to take out some of your short position.
There are 3 main reasons:
1. We have completed wave 3 of 3 and is now going into wave 4 (and wave 4 are notorious for being unpredictable and may even have triple combinations).
2. We are what? 80% in the money and it happens very fast. So productivity wise, it is good to take some money off the table.
3. Weekend risk.
I am putting this idea as "Neutral" even though I am still expecting a wave 5 down. Reason is because we are in wave 4, and also because I pray that I can find time to update again when wave 4 ends and wave 5 of 3 starts.
Good luck!
Weekly Closing not Good but..Weekly Closing not Good but
the Stock is Still Bullish on Bigger
Time Frames.
Price dropped with Low Volumes.
Weekly Important Support seems to
be around 42.50 - 44.10
49-50 is an Important Resistance as
of now.
Stock Watch: AXP (American Express Co.) 🚨
We're eyeing AXP for a strategic multi-entry swing trade based on strong technical structure and long-term potential. Here's the plan:
📌 Entry Points:
1️⃣ $248 – First touch on short-term support
2️⃣ $234 – Healthy correction zone
3️⃣ $219 – Strong base of demand
🔻 Deeper Load Zone: $195 – Long-term trendline + major accumulation area
💰 Profit Targets:
✅ $285 – Previous resistance / key breakout level
✅ $300 – Psychological barrier & momentum zone
✅ $310+ – Blue sky potential 🚀
This laddered entry strategy gives us great risk management while maximizing upside. AXP remains a solid name with strong fundamentals, making it a low-volatility winner in volatile markets.
📊 Ideal for patient traders and swing setups.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All investments involve risk. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Sell Idea on NQ100 based on draw on liquidity NQ100 has been selling off mainly due to the tariffs issues but I'm more concerned with the draw on liquidity on the daily time frame at 17626.74 as it is a daily low. I'm anticipating price to draw close to that price due to this and also we have the London session low at 17657.27 which is very close to the price I mention above hence the idea of a buy to take out the London high .
Recovery or Pain?Will this be the infliction point or breaking point? Here we have multiple points of importance. Will this be a bounce or a crash?
BTC - short if the accelerated trendline breaks and confirms. This has been a very screwy time in markets, lol.
I was stopped out of my first BTC short after at least some profits were taken.
I still think that we are going to face a correction before heading higher, granted that we haven't seen the top of this cycle.
If this accelerated trendline breaks and confirms, enter a short position. That is the safest entry for now at least.
I would target the big picture trendline, which will probably be close to the .50 fib on this particular break-out structure. So, close to 76K.
We may even get a scare-tactic wick down to 68K-70K. That coincides with this structure's .618 pocket.
Anyway, that's it for now for me.
Thank you!
Gold’s Rally Pauses – Correction Incoming!!!Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) started to correct at the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and near the upper line of the Ascending Channel . The question is, will we have a minor correction or a major correction(main)?
Gold is moving near Resistance lines and Fibonacci levels and was able to breaks the Uptrend lines . I view the upward movement of the last few hours as an upward correction , which will likely cause gold to fall again.
In terms of Elliott waves , it looks like Gold has completed a major wave 5 and I expect Gold to start a major corrective wave . In Gold's history , major impulse waves have completed precisely near the upper lines of ascending channels .
I expect Gold to decline at least to the Support zone($3,100-$3,085) , if gold can break the lower line of the ascending channel, we can be more confident that we are in the main corrective waves .
Do you think Gold can create a new All-Time High(ATH) again?
Note: If Gold goes above $3,130, we can expect more pumps and a new All-Time High(ATH).
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
S&P 500 Faces Increased Bearish Pressure as Trade War BeginsThe S&P 500 has formed a downtrend channel following the break below the 5700 support level. Trump's new aggressive tariff policy raised the minimum tariff on China to 54%, while China responded with equally aggressive 34% tariffs. The trade war has now officially begun.
This escalation is clearly negative for the stock market. Recession risks have risen significantly, and it remains uncertain how much the Fed can cut rates while tariff-driven inflationary pressures persist. Rapid rate cuts could help soften the slowdown but may also risk fueling another inflation surge. That would be the more optimistic case for equities. However, the Fed is likely to proceed cautiously, suggesting that bearish pressure could continue for several quarters.
In the short term, the downward trend remains intact. If the S&P 500 breaks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, it may decline further toward the lower boundary of the new trend channel, where a potential bounce could occur. As long as the trend holds, bears remain in control.
Note: Powell is expected to speak today. His remarks carry even more weight following the tariff moves by both the U.S. and China.
Update for Mentorship on Trades and Key Levels $TSLA $SPY $NVDAUpdate for mentorship members on trades we've taken this week, Fib levels, support, divergence, potential tariff exemptions.
$AMD position trade idea LONG TERM weekly/monthlyNASDAQ:AMD has been weak for awhile on the weekly chart, but nothing lasts forever. This is a long position trade idea I have for myself, with the thesis that, long term, NASDAQ:AMD is reaching for $360ish over the next couple of years, based on fib projections from back when the bull market started years ago.
NASDAQ:AMD briefly touched a premium zone months ago (red shaded area), and with the current weakness NASDAQ:AMD has been pulling back and just reached a short term discount zone around $109 (green shaded area). My expectation is that NASDAQ:AMD might drop a bit more into this zone, perhaps sweep under the lows at $93.12, reach a couple of projected targets for the short interest (that I have marked in red and orange lines), and then find support and bounce aggressively from there.
This is all based on a pattern I frequently see where when a chart reaches the premium zone near the end of a move, it often pauses just shy of the target and feigns a reversal, falling back into the short term discount zone, often sweeping a low, and then aggressively pushing for the target that was intended all along. This serves to wash out any short term holders and deny them the full target, while offering good prices to the long term holders to reaccumulate before reaching their target.
Seek professional investment advice elsewhere, this is not trading or investment advice, this is my own observations and how I intend to approach NASDAQ:AMD in this current price area. I will not be blindly buying anything and I always manage my risk in case I'm wrong.
GOLD - Bullish Momentum Continues! Key Levels & Trade SetupCurrent Price Action:
Gold (XAUUSD) is showing strong bullish momentum on the 1-hour chart, with clear support levels forming. The price recently tested 3,108.56 and is holding above key psychological support at 3,100.00.
Key Levels & Trade Setup:
Support Zones:
- FVG (Fair Value Gap) acting as support
- Strong base at 3,108.56 (11:35 candle)
- Major psychological level at 3,100.00
Market Context:
The chart shows liquidity pools with clear buy/sell labels, indicating institutional activity. The price is respecting Fibonacci levels, suggesting a structured uptrend.
Final Thoughts:
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, with clear support levels and Fibonacci confluences providing high-probability trade setups. The 3,100 level is critical—holding above it keeps the bullish bias intact.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Always do your own analysis. Trade safe! 💡
“Gold’s Resilience: Sustaining the Long-Term Uptrend”XAUUSD remains in an uptrend and is estimated to be in wave (v) of wave ; more specifically, it is currently within wave iv of wave (v).
In the short term, XAUUSD is expected to undergo a correction toward the 2,948–2,989 area. However, in the broader outlook, I anticipate further upside movement toward the 3,091–3,161 level.
“DXY Set to Strengthen, but Upside Potential Appears Limited”The current position of the DXY is estimated to have completed wave (iii) of wave . Consequently, the DXY is expected to strengthen, forming wave (iv) while testing the 104.800 to 105.346 area.
“Weak Demand Signals Potential for a Lower Low”Currently, the position of NCF1! or Newcastle Coal is within wave 5 of wave (C) of wave , indicating that Newcastle Coal remains vulnerable to further corrections toward the 86.55–96.15 range, as represented by the black labels.
A similar pattern is observed in the red labels, where Newcastle Coal is also nearing the completion of wave (5) of wave .
We observe continued pressure on coal demand due to weak consumption and oversupply, as many countries are increasingly investing in renewable energy sources amid slower global economic growth.
Market Moves as Expected—Caution for a Potential ReversalDXY Update : The movement remains in line with my expectations, with the ongoing correction being held by the Fibonacci cluster. At this stage, DXY still has the potential to strengthen, testing the 102.791–103.150 area to form wave iv of wave (v).
However, caution is advised for a potential reversal toward the 100.462–100.946.
AUDUSD breaking down following the headlinesIntraday Update: The AUDUSD has broken flag support following the headline from China that they are going to impose a 34% retaliatory tariff. The AUDUSD just surpassed the 127% extension and now may target the .6118 level intraday.
Long term targets the post covid lockdown lows.
No Signs of the Bull ArmyDow Jones Update : The correction appears likely to continue, testing the 40,045–40,467 range. Subsequently, the index is expected to rebound toward the 40,714–40,945.
Additionally, it is worth noting the gap in the 41,173–41,629 range—perhaps the market may find its way there.
BTC - Crawling back up after Trump's tariffs.🚀 BTCUSDT - 4H Chart Analysis 🚀
📊 Market Context:
Bitcoin recently experienced a sharp move, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that price is now retracing into. The large gap in price action was influenced by recent economic uncertainty and speculation around Trump's tariffs.
📌 Technical Insights:
🔹 Price rebounded strongly from the support zone 📈.
🔹 Now approaching the FVG, where sellers may step in.
🔹 A potential lower high formation could lead to a continuation downward.
📉 Trade Expectation:
If price shows signs of rejection within the FVG, we could see a bearish move unfold towards previous support levels. The red arrow highlights the expected move if the resistance holds.
⚠️ Market Caution: Given the macroeconomic impact of recent events, volatility remains high. Always wait for confirmation before making decisions!
📢 Do you think BTC will reject this zone or push higher? Drop your thoughts below! 💬🔥🚀
