Why Bitcoin is going down, Reason? - fxdollars- {13/01/2025}Educational Analysis says BTCUSD may move DOWN from this range, according to my technical.
Broker - COINBASE
Because the BTCUSD pair showed some bullish weakness, it finally did liquidity, which was taken out on buy-side orders to show a sign of a downtrend, and I am looking to counter-trend this position.
Let's see what this pair brings to the table for us in the future.
Please check the comment section to see how this turned out.
DISCLAIMER:-
This is not an entry signal. THIS IS ONLY EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ANALYSIS.
I have no concerns with your profit and loss from this analysis.
I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS,
Happy Trading, Fx Dollars.
Fibonacci
ETHBTC - 2 ETH may soon buy 1 BTCBINANCE:ETHBTC is one of the most hated trades on the market right now. And based on price action from recent months and years - definitely for good reason. Ethereum is being viewed as a stale rust-bucket compared to the superior monetary properties of Bitcoin and the younger exuberance found in Solana. However don’t bet the house on that narrative continuing over the coming months. To me it seems that Ethereum may well have its time to shine once again...
Reasons to be super bullish
As crazy as it may be to say this, Ethereum can soon reach the rather insane price target of 0.5 BTC per ETH in the coming 18 months.
The pattern for the last 6 years has been one of accumulation, Wycoff Accumulation to be exact. Just look at similarities with an example pattern of GOLD posted from a few years ago, of it similarly being in deep accumulation and the price action that followed.
I’m willing to stick my neck out and say that the Wycoff (coiled) spring from the BINANCE:ETHBTC chart above has now completed, after over-shooting the downwards wedge (in white). Such an overshoot usually leads to the most volatile reversals, and is therefore one of my favorite trading patterns.
Not only that, BINANCE:ETHBTC also has a clean-looking cup & handle pattern forming, dating back to May 2018. Should that come to fruition, the minimum price target (taking the height of the cup via white arrows) would equate to 0.5 BTC. That just so happens to also perfectly coincide with the 1.414 fib level drawn.
Now, would Ethereum stop there? You’ve got to imagine so. However it may not…
BINANCE:ETHBTC 's onset to markets saw a 95x (pink arrow). Taking the same measured move, from the bottom in January 2020, would equate to a 30x move from current levels or a 55x from 2020's bottom. That would indicate a final target of 0.91 BTC, at the 1.618 fib, by around April 2026.
Another reason to suggest the selling is over, RSI is putting in a higher low, whilst price is making a lower low.
BINANCE:ETHBTC is mirroring the same setup as September 2019, with similar targets possible.
Reasons to be sceptical
We should be in a clearly bullish period, between Mar-24 to Apr-26 although we have yet to see bullish price action as of today. BINANCE:ETHBTC already enduring its bearish period from Dec-21 to Feb-24, this is unlikely to be another.
If we’re going to see the above come into fruition, we must soon see a huge uptick in volume in Ethereum in the coming days. Watch the green arrow underneath the chart to see if that happens over the coming 15-18 months.
BINANCE:ETHBTC looks to have already bounced off the 0.024 BTC per ETH. Or the 0.382 fib level (turquoise line). I expect very limited downside from here.
What might trigger a bullish change?
MSTR thanks to Michael Saylor has popularised his company as a quasi-leveraged ETF, turning the balance sheet of his company into a fast-tracked success.
Can you think of another company that is flush with billions of cash that is aligned with defi, NFT & decentralized markets and has one person on the board calling the shots for their investment committee? GameStop could well be the first public company to put Ethereum on their balance sheet and spark a huge step-change in the amount of institutional investment into ETH, over say BTC. They currently have $4.8bn in cash on their balance sheet and have yet to announce any M&A or changes to their corporate treasury.
Watch-out for catalysts, alt-season I sense is coming...
$SPY February 26, 2025AMEX:SPY February 26, 2025
15 Minutes.
100% extension move was completed yesterday. Now i expect a bounce before next fall.
For the rise 589.56 to 596.67 holding 593.5 - 594 is important for 597.5 to 599 levels.
We are still in a series of LL and LH pattern and below 200 averages too.
For the extension 589.56 to 599.96 to 593.02 I have a target 597-598 levels.
That should be a good level to short again.
GOLD → Shaking. Going into flat. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is moving from a local bullish trend to a flat state. Bulls are still protecting strong risk zones. What to expect from the metal next?
Investors are returning to safe-haven assets due to uncertainty over Trump's tariffs and weak U.S. economic data.
Gold pulled back from a record $2,956 on Tuesday on profit taking and due to a drop in Chinese imports. However, a weak U.S. consumer confidence index helped the price recover.
Gold's rise is being held back by a strengthening dollar and bond yields, but trade war fears are supporting demand for the metal
Resistance levels: 2921, 2929, 2942
Support levels: 2905, 2888
Thus, we are forming a flat (sideways range). There is a possibility for a decline, for example, to retest the support 2905 - 2888 before further growth. Or growth and breakdown of resistance.
If the bulls can enter the 2921-2929 zone and keep the defense above this zone, the metal may return to growth.
Regards R. Linda!
EURUSD → Pre-break consolidation against 1.053FX:EURUSD continues to form bullish hints for a possible continuation of growth. There is strong resistance ahead and the market is forming a pre-breakdown consolidation
The dollar continues its correction amid economic data, the country's politics and hints from Trump and Powell of a possible rate cut soon.
The euro is benefiting from the dollar's decline, but how long will it last, especially amid the tariff war between the U.S. and Europe?
Technically, at the moment, the chart indicates a bullish outlook. Within the local uptrend, an ascending triangle is forming, which generally indicates bullish interest in the market. The focus is on the pattern base - resistance at 1.053.
Support levels: 1.045, 1.040
Resistance levels: 1.053
If the dollar continues its downward course, the currency pair has all chances to grow.
A retest of the trend support (false breakout) before the resistance breakout is possible.
Breakout and consolidation of the price above 1.053 may provoke growth.
Regards R. Linda!
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/26/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21240.75
- PR Low: 21210.00
- NZ Spread: 68.75
Key scheduled economic events:
10:00 | Crude Oil Inventories
- New Home Sales
Continuing strong value decline to 21000 long-term inventory
- Pivot off previous session close, retracing 50% to 21300
- Maintaining inventory low range of previous 3 months
Session Open Stats (As of 1:05 AM 2/26)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 357.48
- Volume: 23K
- Open Int: 287K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -5.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
USD/JPY Market Analysis – 1H Timeframe📉 USD/JPY Market Analysis – 1H Timeframe
📊 Current Price: 149.563
🔍 Market Structure: Bullish Bias
📌 Key Levels:
🟢 Demand Zones (Support):
148.715-149.603
📈 Entry Plan – Long Setup
🔹 Buy Zone: 148.715-149.603 (Fib 0.618 - 0.786)
🎯 Target: 150.727
⚠️ Key Observations:
• BOS confirms bullish momentum.
• Fair Value Gaps (FVG) align with support zones.
• Break below 148.715 may lead to a liquidity grab before reversal.
#FXFOREVER #USDJPY #SmartMoney #SMC #Liquidity #OrderBlock #Forex #Trading
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Market Analysis – 1H Timeframe📉 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Market Analysis – 1H Timeframe
📊 Current Price: 88,574.47
🔍 Market Structure: Bearish Bias
📌 Key Levels:
🔴 Supply Zones (Resistance):
90,924-91,580
92,323-92,523
📈 Entry Plan – Short Setup
🔹 Sell Zone: 90,924-91,580 (Fib 0.618 - 0.786)
🎯 Target: 87,067.72
⚠️ Key Observations:
• BOS confirms bearish momentum.
• Fair Value Gaps (FVG) align with resistance zones.
• Break above 92,523 may lead to a liquidity grab before reversal.
#FXFOREVER #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #SmartMoney #SMC #Liquidity #OrderBlock #Forex #Crypto
Gold (XAU/USD) Market Analysis – 1H Timeframe📉 Gold (XAU/USD) Market Analysis – 1H Timeframe
📊 Current Price: 2,919.530
🔍 Market Structure: Bearish Bias
📌 Key Levels:
🔴 Supply Zones (Resistance):
2943-2947
2954-2956
🟢 Demand Zones (Support):
2874-2882
2834-2838
📈 Entry Plan – Short Setup
🔹 Sell Zone: 2923.8-2929 (Fib 0.618 - 0.786)
🎯 Targets:
✅ TP1: 2874-2882
✅ TP2: 2834-2838
⚠️ Key Observations:
• CHoCH & BOS indicate bearish momentum.
• If price holds below 2923, expect continuation down.
• Break above 2929.74 may lead to a liquidity grab before reversal.
#FXFOREVER #Gold #XAUUSD #SmartMoney #SMC #Liquidity #OrderBlock #Forex
EURUSD on the rise Yesterday, EURUSD tested the previous high again but failed to break through.
Since the beginning of the month, there have been many buying opportunities, which we have analysed.
Now it's time to reduce risk and monitor whether there is enough strength for higher levels.
If the price rises again, the target will be a breakout of the previous high.
The next resistance levels are 1,0554 and 1,0568.
BTS Heading to 74K or Is It Just a Shakeout?Not a pretty picture, is it? I hope it's just a shakeout of weak hands and not truly a breakdown.
The price has clearly closed below significant lows. Only saving grace is that the yesterday low is around 38.2% retracement of the rise from lows of August 2024 (sub 50K level).
Let's hope it reverses for good from here. If not, it's not just #BTC that will fall but majority of cryptos with it.
The EURCAD currency pair has reached a critical resistance levelThe EURCAD currency pair has reached a critical resistance level at 1.505, signaling an opportunity for selling.
From technical side
This pair has recently encountered strong resistance near the 1.500-1.505 area, where it has failed to break above these levels multiple times.
RSI has consistently been overbought territory above the 70 level. Euro is now overextended and due for a pullback.
From fundamental side
Recent economic data from the Eurozone has shown signs of slowing growth, with inflationary pressures remaining above the European Central Bank's target, potentially leading to a more dovish stance in future monetary policy.
On the other hand, Canada's economic outlook has been more resilient, with solid GDP growth, rising oil prices, and an increasingly hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada.
First Target: 1.498 area being 0.382 retracement level
Second Target: 1.493 area being 0.618 retracement level in conjunction with previous top
DJT - Parabolic Move IncomingNASDAQ:DJT is soon in my mind to begin the most insane of rallies. This chart for me is as clean as they come!
Recent Price Action
From the peak of October 2024 to recent days in February 2025 - the stock has seen a ~46% correction, in what is likely the completion of an Elliott Wave 2 correction (in X,Y,Z form).
This after a bullish initial Wave 1 formation saw it go beyond even the most bullish of bullish initial price targets, in just 2 weeks flat.
Price had prior to that been compressed inside a downwards-pointing wedge pattern (orange lines), since late March 2024. This is one of my most favourite bullish chart patterns. It often leads to explosive price action.
After breaking out of the wedge, it is now not-only putting the finishing touches to an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern (grey text)... but when it does so it will also complete a massive Cup & Handle formation (white arrows).
Future Price Targets
The initial target (T1) from this move would be $570 (20x) in a very short period. Perhaps even by end of June 2025. This would coincide with the 1.414 fibonacci level. Drawn from its initial introduction to public markets to its peak just weeks later.
Thereafter, an extended 5th wave target of $1,020 (43x) could be reached sometime around late November 2025 and January 2026. This coincides with the 1.618 fibonacci level (darker blue T2 line).
Price as of today has overshot the 0.382 fibonacci line and back-tested the previously-formed left shoulder. It is likely to find support here on the yellow line.
Next Up...
Volume has been pitiful of late. Watch it ramp-up again in the next few days, just like we saw in September 2024 when it completed its full retrace.
It is my expectation that we will see rest of the markets surprising bears, with a huge reversal before March, perhaps even combined with a significant dollar devaluation.
During this time when volume picks-up, a sharp reversal to the upside out of its latest wedge (dark red lines) is possible before the week ends on 28th February. If this occurs, this will likely confirm the end to Wave 2 of 5.
If there is any further downside to come, the absolute worst case scenario will likely be ~$18 - coinciding with the 0.238 fib. However this is not expected, just something to be wary of.
NASDAQ:DJT from here is ready to begin the most volatile of Elliott Waves, Wave 3. If volume persists, price will be drawn like a magnet to the horizontal sloping trend line in bold white.
Possible Elliott Waves
Wave 1 - $12 to $55
Wave 2 - $55 to $24
Wave 3 - $30 to $570
Wave 4 - $570 to $175
Wave 5 - $175 to $1,020
Ridiculous targets, right? So what could be the catalyst?
With the appointment of Kash Patel, we may now start seeing legal action taken against entities & individuals involved with naked short positioning. NASDAQ:DJT even in it's short history has been a prime target for this since 2022.
NASDAQ:DJT may be partially or heavily-involved with the Sovereign Wealth Fund being discussed for the United States.
NASDAQ:DJT may also complete the long-rumored acquisition of Bakkt Holdings ( NYSE:BKKT ). Perhaps even obtaining a minority stake in TikTok.
Short squeeze, M&A, fraudulent recovery, purchases of ETHUSD or just plain old organic price discovery - you pick your poison. But if you thought you'd seen NASDAQ:DJT reach its peak prior to the elections, be prepared to rethink your views.
NASDAQ:DJT has a LOT of room to the upside still from here. Make sure at the very least, you keep this one on your watch-list.
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Note : This post was originally published on 2nd November 2024 in the lead-up to the election. It was popular but was hidden due to an error on my part including a private indicator. It has now been updated to account for recent price action & timing.
btc finds 200 ema support, whats next?As I have been posting in these "Ideas" for the past few weeks about market direction and where the price for BTC will go. It now has come to pass where the 200 EMA has been tested and support has been found, It however has not generated any relief among buyer sentiment unable to push price above the previous days close leaving the digital asset to continue to bleed out and cause positions from all the 93k Bulls to liquidate.
Its a shame people cannot make the connection that the only way price can go higher is to go lower in a market. That Is why I am going to warn people about where we may go , I believe the 200 EMA will be tested again and if support is broken it will send is into the low 70k area where there are open orders and It is possible this may happen. The Bull market support band is the 200EMA however there may be institutional money that may drive us down to cause massive liquidations and fear and panic among those holding bags while greed causes big players to push more into the fringe of where we can maintain a recovery.
Watch for a retest of the 200EMA . which is a bit of a fuzzy zone , use the high and low to denote the area for support as well as keep an eye on the RSI and CCI , we are also watching on balance volume drop off which is not a great sign that there is market confidence however this will play out over the weekly and the weekly candle will start to materialize in the next few days.