Bitcoin – Testing Major Resistance: 95k next target?Bitcoin is currently trading inside a significant resistance zone between $88,000 and $89,000. This area has acted as a strong supply zone in the past, evidenced by multiple rejections that led to notable sell-offs. The recent upward momentum that brought price back into this area was backed by a strong rally off the April lows, pushing through local structure and recovering critical levels. However, despite the strength of this move, price is now approaching a decision point where bulls need to prove continuation capacity or risk triggering another corrective leg.
Consolidation Structure
The current structure reflects a potential accumulation base forming below resistance, marked by a series of higher lows and a compression of volatility. This typically precedes a breakout, though it also heightens the risk of a sharp rejection should buyers fail to sustain pressure. The local trend remains bullish on the 4H timeframe, but the lack of follow-through above resistance so far suggests hesitation. Price is essentially coiling beneath a ceiling, building pressure for a breakout or breakdown move in the coming sessions.
Bullish Scenario
If Bitcoin is able to cleanly break above the $89,000 resistance level, the key confirmation will be a successful retest of this zone from above. This area, once flipped into support, would offer a strong launchpad for continuation toward the next key target at $95,000. This target aligns with the measured move projection from the recent range and also represents a psychological milestone that may attract momentum buyers. A confirmed breakout and retest would signal strength from bulls and invalidate the prior resistance structure, transitioning it into new support.
Bearish Scenario
Alternatively, if price fails to break above the resistance zone and prints another rejection, I expect a retracement to follow. The first major area of interest on the downside is the imbalance zone between approximately $84,000 and $85,500. This level also aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, and given the inefficiency left behind from the recent rally, it serves as a logical short-term support area. A bounce here would not be surprising, particularly on the first touch. However, should price break below and close beneath this zone, it would indicate weakness and open the door for a deeper corrective move.
The next major downside target in that case would be the golden pocket between $79,500 and $80,500. This zone carries strong confluence: it’s formed by the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement, a previously unfilled price void (PVG), and the base of the recent rally. Price reaching this area would likely attract interest from both buyers looking for re-entry and shorts looking to cover. A reaction from this level could set the stage for a medium-term bounce or even a new accumulation phase.
Current Stance
At the moment, my stance is neutral-to-bullish while price remains within the resistance zone. I'm closely monitoring for a clean breakout and retest, which would trigger a long setup targeting the $95K area. Until that breakout occurs, caution is warranted due to the risk of rejection and retracement. If price breaks down from the current level, I will shift my focus to lower support zones, particularly the imbalance region and the golden pocket, for potential long opportunities or further confirmation of bearish momentum.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is at a pivotal point technically. The structure and momentum suggest the possibility of a bullish continuation, but confirmation through breakout and retest is essential. A failure to break and hold above resistance will likely initiate a retracement, with the imbalance zone serving as the first major test. If that zone fails, a trip toward the golden pocket at $80K becomes increasingly probable. This is a reactive zone-to-zone environment, and both breakout and breakdown scenarios offer actionable setups based on confirmation.
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