EURCAD Can Fall Fall Further DownThe last standard W pattern had failed. EURCAD completed an extended W pattern. It showed some rejection from the top. We have a support level in there. If this support levels is broken and confirmed with a bearish signal, we can see a good short opportunity. Targets are on the screen:
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Fibonaccianalysis
AUDCHF Possible BUY AreaAUDCHF completed a W FCP pattern. This made the price fall. It has fallen hard and could possible be going towards the area where we have confluence of an FCP zone and 2 trend lines. This can be a good Buy area for a possible bounce up.
As always wait for the confirmation on the smaller time frame.
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USDCHF Zone To Watch Out ForUSDCHF is at a resistance zone. If the market make it a support zone and gives a bullish confirmation above it, it can be a good buying opportunity.
At the moment it is at resistance level so if you want to go long, you must wait for a proper confirmation. Remember Buy at support and Sell at resistance :)
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NZDUSD Can Rise From The FCP Zone & M PatternNZDUSD Can Rise From The FCP Zone & M Pattern
As the chart indicates, we have an M pattern completion along with and FCP zone on the daily time frame. Wait for a confirmation based entry on smaller time frames. This can be a good day trade or swing trade opportunity depending on your trading plan.
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AUDUSD W pattern completion - Can FallAUDUSD has reached an area where it has completed a complex W pattern. There are a few levels and zones (as on the chart) to be watched.
When W pattern completes, a correction comes. This idea is on the daily time frame, so wait for a confirmation on smaller time frame to execute trades.
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USDJPY Higher Time Frame AnalysisJapanese Yen collapse continues with its lowest closing price in 34 years. If it falls through 160, it will be the lowest level against the U.S. Dollar since the 1980s. It can get even worse. Let's look at some charts:
1. We are currently sitting at 160 resistance level where a W FCP pattern is completed which can give us a correction. This is the last level which is preventing the USDJPY from slingshotting upwards.
2. A CUP formation is happening at the moment (rounding bottom). So if the correction comes at the current levels, that can make this a Cup and Handle pattern.
3. If the correction does not occur or we get a shallow one, these current levels can become a new support which can push USDJPY higher once confirmed.
4. There are several gaps left in 1980s. I posted about these gaps in my previous post approximately 7 months ago, indicating that USDJPY would be bullish.
5. These are the levels where in the long run USDJPY can go to complete a big W pattern.
This can have a huge impact on the #dollar index (DXY) too.
I recently did a premium analysis report on USDJPY and DXY (dollar index) for a client which has a more in-depth analysis and potential target zones/levels. Get in touch with me via DM if you want to order a copy of that report.
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USOIL Higher Time Frame Possible Bullish ScenarioThis is higher time frame bullish scenario on USOIL (WTI). This is only applicable if a bullish breakout occurs.
1. The price is inside a triangle which is getting squeezed and reaching its apex. That means we are going to have a breakout very soon.
2. Recently the price completed and M pattern and jumped higher. When M pattern completes the market goes higher.
3. If we get a bullish breakout from this triangle and if this breakout confirms, we can have formation of a potential W pattern. This when completed will have the potential to make oil fall again.
4. After that if the price stays bullish or becomes bullish again, we have a gap available around 100 area which needs to be filled at subpoint.
5. That will also lead us into a bigger multiple month and possibly multi year bullish formation of a W pattern.
But first, we need to see how price breaks out of the triangle.
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GBPUSD - Watch 1.3 round number and LevelsGBPUSD had an explosive move last week. This was mainly due to a fall in USDJPY from a resistance level that I shared. See the attached chart. This made DXY fall and most of the USD based pairs felt the impact of that. Now GBP use is back in a possible resistance area. Watch out for a W pattern and these levels.
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EURCAD W pattern Completion - Can FallEURCAD is near W pattern completion. This has been a complex W pattern in formation which usually gives a good pull backs.
This is a swing trade idea, so wait for a proper confirmation before going short.
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BTC - A Healthy Pullback or a Sign of More to Come?Hey fellow crypto enthusiasts! Let's dive into Bitcoin's recent price action and what we can expect in the coming months.
The Correction Phase: Why It's Not All Doom and Gloom
First off, don't panic about the current correction phase. After the halving, a correction was not just expected. It’s healthy! Think of it as Bitcoin catching its breath before the next big sprint. We're seeing an ABC correction pattern, which savvy traders will recognize as a typical and necessary, market movement.
Timing the Market: When to Make Your Move
So, when’s this correction likely to wrap up? Our crystal ball suggests somewhere between July and August/September. This is the perfect window to dollar-cost average (DCA) into your positions. By buying a fixed dollar amount of BTC at regular intervals, you can average out your entry price, reducing the impact of volatility.
Long Positions: Entering long positions in the 50000-52245 range could be a smart move, considering the support levels and the bullish outlook post-summer.
Key Levels to Watch: The Golden Zone
Here’s where it gets interesting. The big kahuna level to keep an eye on is 50K. Not only is it a psychological level, but it’s also where several technical indicators converge. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the smaller wave sits at $52,245, while the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the entire 491 day bull run is at $51,690. This zone also hosts an old trading range, known as a bullish order block. Translation? This area is packed with historical significance and potential support.
Fibonacci Levels:
Fib 0.618 of the smaller wave is at $52,245.
Fib 0.382 of the entire 491-day bull run is at $51,690.
Ichimoku Cloud: Your Support Safety Net
On the daily timeframe, the Ichimoku cloud’s edge (custom settings) aligns around the 50K mark, offering additional support. It's like having an extra safety net below a tightrope walker.
Altcoins: The Unsung Heroes
Don't forget about altcoins! Many have pulled back significantly, with some seeing 60-80% corrections. This is a golden opportunity to DCA into altcoins and position yourself for potential gains. Remember, during market corrections, altcoins often offer lucrative entry points for those looking to diversify.
Wrapping Up: The Bigger Picture
While the correction phase may seem daunting, it’s a natural part of the market cycle. The key levels around 50K-52K are not just numbers, they’re strategic entry points. With the support of the Ichimoku cloud there’s a lot to be optimistic about as we move towards the end of summer.
What do you think? Are you positioning yourself for the end of the correction? Drop your thoughts and let’s discuss!
With a clearer understanding of Bitcoin's correction phase and the key levels to watch, you're now better equipped to navigate the crypto waters. Happy trading!
EUR/GBP Struggling to Find Grip at Support
The EUR/GBP cross recently shook hands with support made up of Fibonacci ratios between £0.8408 and £0.8434 (consisting of 78.6% and 88.6% retracement ratios and a 1.618% projection ratio). While buyers have attempted to make a stand from the aforementioned area, the trend has largely favoured bears since November’s top (2023) at £0.8766. A clear descending resistance also warrants attention overhead that may discourage buying, extended from November’s peak.
Given the current structure/trend, traders (and investors) may watch the descending resistance – as well as resistance marked above at £0.8500 – for selling opportunities over the coming weeks.
GBP/JPY - Price is the leading IndicatorToday we are looking at GBP/JPY 5 Minutes timeframe.
Based on the price structure, we believe that the high probability direction in the short term is downtrend.
We have seen an ABC (Corrective) wave after the Low of Friday was made.
Key Structures to note:
Structure 4: 200.022 Downtrend continuation reversal point.
Structure 2: 200.674 Downtrend Violation Structure.
Always Think in Probability:
As traders, you must be careful to align your behavior and expectations with the following principles:
- Anything can happen
- An EDGE is only an indication of one thing happening over another
- There is a random distribution between wins and losses
- You don't need to know what will happen in order to make money in trading.
USD/CAD Trend reset - Buy ContinuationMomentum preceeds prices!
The USDCAD has had a trend reset (Secondary Trend), which is key to the Up-trend continuation.
The structural point for trend reversal is 1.3656, we want to see a second breakdown below the structure without breaking below 1.3624. A trade back above 1.3656 will be the first buy, confirmation will be a trade above 1.3671.
In terms of Target, we will use the Fibonacci retracement from the low to the high of 3.
Target 1: 1.3780
Target 2: 1.3838
Initial Stop Loss: 1.3624
Ethereum 15k+- i am far to be Elliot Wave expert and to be honest i am not a fan.
- there's a lack of precision and EW can be extended.
- Don't forget that the real name is " Elliot Wave THEORY ".
- included a Fibo Analysis + Trend Analysis + famous bubbles.
"The Elliott Wave Theory is a form of technical analysis that looks for recurrent long-term price patterns related to persistent changes in investor sentiment and psychology. The theory identifies impulse waves that set up a pattern and corrective waves that oppose the larger trend ".
- Everything is in graphic as always.
Happy Trading !
USDJPY Bearish ContinuationThe USD/JPY is one of the sell pairs we have from the portfolio selection we did yesterday.
The Major pull for us thinking of shorting this pair is the wave structure (3) Momentum Low; this price point has over 70% probability that at some time in the future, the price will come back there after a retracement.
On Friday,15-minute timeframe, we saw a breakdown which signifies a continuation of the downtrend.
Here are the key prices we should be looking at:
Sell Below: 155.60
Sell Confirmation: 155.24
Stop Loss: 156.02
Sell target T1 152.85
3 Best Fibonacci Tools For Forex Trading
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss 3 classic Fibonacci tools you must know for trading different financial markets.
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement
Fib.Retracement is my favorite fib.tool. It is aimed to identify strong horizontal support and resistance levels within the impulse leg .
We draw this tool based on the high and low of the impulse (from wick to wick) and it shows us POTENTIALLY strong structure levels determined by Fibonacci numbers .
Common Fib.Retracement levels are: 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of an application of a fibonacci retracement tool based on a bearish impulse leg on EURUSD.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Extension
Fib.Extension indicates strong horizontal support and resistance levels beyond the impulse . Similar to Fib.Retracement tool, Fib.Extension is drawn relying on impulse's high and low (from wick to wick) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong structure levels where the consequent impulses may complete based on Fibonacci number.
Common Fib.Extension levels are: 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of fibonacci extension tool based on USDJPY based on a bullish impulse leg.
3️⃣ Fibonacci Channel
Fib.Channel shows strong vertical supports and resistances (trend lines) within the channel . The tool is drawn based on the trend line of a valid parallel channel (based on wicks) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong trend lines from where the market may retrace .
The trend lines within Fib.Channel rest on 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 Fib.Levels .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of a fibonacci channel on USDCHF.
Remember that Fibonacci's are simply tools in a toolbox. In order to use them properly, you need to build a trading system around them, test it and confirm its efficiency.
GBPJPY Strong Reversal & GBPUSD UpdateThe Japanese Yen(D) is going through the B to C leg of its correction, which we saw in the yen pairs in the last 24 hours. The GBP/JPY is our pick for a long trade because it has a more technical-bullish outlook than most other yen pairs.
More info in the video.
GBP/USD
The cable broke higher yesterday above 1.2634 , the limit for any downtrend continuation. The violation of this point invalidated the expected downtrend continuation trade.
We must wait for the price to conclude the current rally before we can act on a new position in the cable.
EURUSD | MT Long H4 |Overly OversoldPair: FX:EURUSD
Timeframe: H4 - Medium Term (MT)
Direction: Long
Technical Confluences for Trade:
- Stochastics are in Oversold Conditions on D1, H4 and H1 time-frames
- Price action has some support trend-line holding it
- Horizontal trendline looks like a demand zone across the years
- Horizontal trendline (Red) is at the 1% Fib Extension Level
- Aiming for the 32.8% Fibo Retracement with 23.6% as the TP 1 level
Fundamental Confluences for Trade:
- EUR weakness has been mostly been pricing in the expectation that ECB will cut in June and diverge from the FED. Currently, priced in.
- Risk is further war escalation from the Israel-Iran tension
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 1.0620 - 1.0650
SL @ 1.0589
TP 1 @ 1.0698 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved)
TP 2 @ 1.0758
Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.44 (Depending on Entry Level)
May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D
*This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and am not responsible for any losses derived from it.
XPEV Elliot Impulse Wave I think that NYSE:XPEV completed the Elliot WXYXZ correction wave in April 2024, which started in July 2023.
I think that the major Elliot wave, which I am currently showing with the red line, has started 3 impulse waves. I think that this 3rd impulse wave will make the 1st wave. This impulse movement can take NYSE:XPEV up to $13-$15.
Take Profit Point 1: $10.2
Take Profit Point 2: $13
Take Profit Point 3: $15
Invalidation Level: $6
AUDUSD | Short H4 | Market Exe | Consolidation TradeTechnical Confluences for Trade:
- Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on D1 time-frame
- Price action is at a Consolidation Zone
- Aiming for the 50% Fibo retracement to TP
Fundamental Confluences for Trade:
- US yield differential against AUD will support USD
- China's economy is still struggling to improve and dampening AUD's growth potential
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 0.6550 - 0.6560
SL @ 0.6596
TP 1 @ 0.6505 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved)
TP 2 @ 0.6479
Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.10 (Depending on Entry Level)
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If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies.
If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks.
Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only.
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USDJPY | MT Short H4 | Riding on BOJ InterventionPair: FX:USDJPY
Timeframe: H4 - Medium Term (MT)
Direction: Short
Technical Confluences for Trade:
- Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on D1, H4 and H1 time-frames
- Price action may face some resistance from a previous support line
- Price is close to 61.8% Fib Extension Level
- Aiming for the 32.8% Fibo Retracement with 23.6% as the TP 1 level
Fundamental Confluences for Trade:
- Dividend repatriation season for Japan where MNCs bring back USD dividends and converts them to JPY
- These levels may see BOJ intervening to stop the Yen weakness
- Yield differential between USA and Japan cannot be denied and dovish BOJ doesn't help much; hence the weak JPY unless we see a firmer BOJ
- Further war escalation from the Israel-Iran tension may bring on risk-off moves and see the JPY strengthen
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 154.00 - 155.15
SL @ 156.56
TP 1 @ 151.30 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved)
TP 2 @ 149.27
Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 3.03 (Depending on Entry Level)
May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D
*This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and am not responsible for any losses derived from it.