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Fibonaccichannel

All Time SPX Fibonacci ChannelFibonacci channel with zero line stretching from 1942 low to 1974 low, and 100% at December 1961 high. The chart is in logarithmic scale. A few interesting things to point out: 1. Price only surpasses the 100% level during the dot com bubble and 2021-22 when the Fed's money printer was running wild (another bubble). 2. Price between the 78.6% and 100% level seems to coincide with low to moderate unemployment and average to above average GDP growth, however this is a generalization. There are instances where price remains above the 78.6% level during mild recessions (1960), and there are unexplained events like the "Kennedy Slide" where price dropped close to the 61.8% level even though unemployment was moderate and GDP growth was well above average. But in general, if price is below the 50% level, it's during tough economic times, like the 1970's. When the economy is in at least decent shape, we tend to stay above 61.8% at least. 3. Price almost reaches 100% level again in 1965. In 1997 it tests it before breaking through it in '98. In 2007, 100% level was reached, right before the Great Recession. 4. When the dot com bubble burst, price fell to the 61.8% level. March 2020 COVID low fell to the 50% level. 2022 low fell to the 78.6% level. At a minimum, the channel provides me a way to better visualize the long term trend. Be sure to zoom in. Do you believe we'll fall below the 78.6% level in 2023? Let me know your thoughts.
TVC:SPX
by SAKDOS
3
BTC: Don't Catch a Falling CoinPrimary Chart: BTC's Right-Angled Triangle "Don't catch a falling knife" is an oft-quoted aphorism among traders and investors. At its core, it's a warning about the dangers of buying into a downtrend or sharp drop before price has shown evidence of a bottom. Of course, there are profitable trading moves around buying dips in uptrends , and this cautionary phrase is not meant to address that situation. And some expert traders frequently do attempt to catch falling knifes at key supports, with tight stops, and with smaller position size, while acknowledging the low-probability nature of the obvious countertrend play. BTCUSD has experienced a severe ten-month downtrend since its all-time high. Experts have debated far and wide whether cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH and others have put in a lasting bottom or whether new lows are ahead. To attempt to catch the bottom in BTC now is as risky as it was back at the end of March 2022 after BTC's first bear-market rally. To buy BTC now, especially blindly and without a trading or investing strategy, is a lower probability bet than waiting in cash (for investors) or positioning on the short side (for traders). This is a time when the saying "don't catch a falling knife" applies. The author acknowledges, however, that fundamentally oriented investors may have reasons apart from technical charts to buy BTC for the very long term that may indeed remain valid. But even some well-known fundamentally driven professional money managers in this decade do not just ignore what the technicals and price trends shown on the charts are saying. BTC's Established Downtrend Since November 10, 2022 BTC has remained in a severe downtrend since November 2021 when it made an all-time high at $69,000. The Primary Chart shows a basic downward trendline where each bear rally has found resistance. Note also how this downward trendline rejected price repeatedly several times in late March and early April 2022. Once again this week, just when many wondered whether BTC was about to prove that its June 2022 low was a lasting one, BTC reversed right at this trendline. This trendline is also shown by the zero line of the Fibonacci channel, drawn on the chart below Supplementary Chart A: Fibonacci Channel for BTC The Primary Chart also shows that price has held above key support at June 2022 lows in recent months, which causes BTC's price action to form a sizeable right-angled triangle . Unlike symmetrical triangles, right-angled triangles imply a breakout direction. Martin Pring, a well-known technical expert, writes: "The symmetrical triangle does not given an indication of the direction in which it is ultimately likely to break. The right-angled triangle does, with its implied slanting level of support or resistance." But one cautionary point Pring makes is that triangle breakouts experience retracement moves frequently. If the original breakout is missed, some savvy traders often move in to catch a backtest if one occurs. Recent Confirmation of BTC's Downtrend BTC has confirmed its downtrend remains viable this week. Price tried to break above the downward trendline shown on the Primary Chart above. But it failed right at this resistance level. BTC has also tried to break and hold above three anchored VWAPs from the past several months. Each VWAP is placed at a key level of support / resistance at a recent swing high or low. The first is the anchored VWAP from May 31, 2022. The second is the VWAP anchored to the June 2022 low., the third is the VWAP anchored to the mid-August 2022 high. Below, Supplementary Chart B shows these three anchored VWAPs. More importantly, BTC's chart shows three failed breakout attempts above the May 31, 2022, VWAP. It shows five failed breakout attempts above the VWAP anchored to the June 2022 low. It shows one failed breakout attempt as to the VWAP anchored to the mid-August 2022 peak. Supplementary Chart B: Three Anchored VWAPS The most recent breakout attempt during the first week of September 2022 was notable for its speed and force. Within a mere six days, BTC's price rose 22.87 percent from the low to high of that swing. Considering that swing, however, most of the gains have been lost in the 3-4 days since its peak on September 13, 2022. BTC has also lost all its key retracements of this 22.87% six-day rally, except for the .786 retracement. Losing the .50 and .618 retracements of this rally, combined with the multiple failed breakouts above the May, June and August anchored VWAPS, provides further evidence to support the downtrend's continuation in the near term. Supplementary Chart C: Fibonacci Retracements of 22.87% Rally in Early September Further, the slope of the 8-day EMA provides a useful gauge of near term trends and momentum. Since the 22.87% rally ending September 13, 2022, the 8-day EMA has decisively begun to slope down again. Price has also crossed below it and found resistance into it. The 8-day EMA has also crossed below the 21-day EMA, a more intermediate-term trend gauge that also has turned down. Supplementary Chart D: Slope of 8-day and 21-day EMAs Attempting to guess where the bottom is and blindly buying, hoping that the price will rise, can sometimes work very well. But it fails more often than it works. A more strategic and prudent approach might be to evaluate some of the most simple trend gauges. Tuning out all the news and other noise about potential bottoms, one could consider the 8 and 21 EMAs on this chart, together with the other technical evidence. They have signaled along with the anchored VWAPs that the path of least resistance is lower for now. Further Evidence from Recent Peak in Momentum The 22.87% six-day rally in early September was impressive. Without seeing the downward trendline, one might suspect that BTC might be attempting to prove its June 2022 lows were final lows. But not only did price peak right at the downward trendline as one might expect, RSI momentum peaked just below the resistance level formed over BTC's entire summer rally since June 2022 lows. Note how RSI peaked at approximately 61.34 on September 12, 2022, the day before price hit the trendline and reversed lower. This is a common spot where RSI can reach during valid downtrends. In other words, RSI in a downtrend can find resistance at an upper range of 50-65. Supplementary Chart E: RSI Peak at Resistance on September 12, 2022 The Fibonacci Channel's Dynamic Support Levels The Fibonacci channel not only provides a clear trend gauge with its zero line, it also provides dynamic levels of support and resistance that run parallel to the predominant trend. The chart below shows the Fibonacci channels parallel lines with annotations pointing to areas of dynamic support where price may reach in the coming weeks. First, the teal line is the .236 retracement, a line immediately below this Fibonacci channel's zero line that runs parallel to it at a .236 proportion of the entire channel. Each of these Fibonacci channel supports are dynamic, which means that they change as time progresses. The teal .236 line would be the first multi-week support to consider around $14,700-$16,500. If this line does not hold, then the next line down, the .382 line (purple) offers support at approximately $10,000 to $13,000 in late September and early October 2022. Supplementary Chart F: Fibonacci Channel Intermediate-Term Support Levels Violation of Short-Term Levels Before the Next Trend Move Before the next downtrend move can occur, however, the June 2022 lows must break. The June 2022 lows lie at $17,592-$17,930. Another key level must also be broken before concluding that June 2022 lows will be tested. This level is $19,223, which is .786 retracement of the entire summery rally for BTC. This 19,223 level also coincides with the other Fibonacci .786 retracement of the early September rally at $19,447.57 (shown in Supplementary Chart C above). Supplementary Chart G: Fibonacci Retracements for Entire Summer Rally in BTC Volatility Compression Suggests Directional Move Ahead Lastly, volatility typically runs in cycles. Volatility compression leads to volatility expansion, and volatility expansion tends to lead to volatility compression. One way to gauge when the next directional move is nearing is to examine volatility. The Bollinger Bands help traders do so. The Bollinger Bands plot a line at a given number of standard deviations above and below a mean. The Bollinger Bands on BTC's chart below are plotted at the default of two standard deviations above and below the mean. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart of BTC show volatility has compressed despite the 22.87% move in early September and the sharp selloff since. This suggests a significant trend move is approaching rather than completing. Given evidence of BTC's downtrend being well established, consider that the probabilities favor a downward trend move in the coming weeks associated with the end of the volatility-compression and the start of its expansion. Supplementary Chart H: Bollinger Bands and Volatility Compression _____________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. BINANCE:BTCUSDT CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
22
NVDA: Placing the Rally in ContextPrimary Chart: NVDA's Primary Trend Since Its All-Time High November 22, 2021, with Anchored VWAPs SUMMARY: NVDA appears to have begun a countertrend rally within the context of a sharp downtrend. Other countertrend rallies have ranged from 28.9% to 40.17%. Don't be fooled by a show of strength that does not change the overall structure. Countertrend trading is lower probability, but can be lucrative if risk is managed with great discipline. The most conservative upside target (resistance) range for this rally is $128-$130. This would be reached, if at all, in the next week or two. If the $128-$130 level is reclaimed successfully, then the next higher target to consider is the $145-$150 range discussed below. Watch the green uptrend line off the YTD low on October 13, 2022 and the red VWAP anchored to the YTD low. If either is broken, all bets are off. NVDA has rallied about 15.58% off its YTD lows on October 13, 2022. The lows have not been undercut now for a little over a week. Broader equity indices have rallied as well, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both gaining about 2.3% on Friday. NVDA rallied along side both these indices. 1. NVDA's rally could continue into the FOMC meeting on November 1-2, 2022. The FOMC is likely to increase interest rates by .75 percentage points at the November 2022 meeting. The CME's Fed watch tool, tracking federal-funds-rate futures products, shows the probability of a 75 bps hike at 88% for November. Have markets already discounted this? Probably. What is unknown is whether any change in the Fed's messaging will occur or will the Fed maintain its higher-for-longer hawkish stance to deal with sticky inflation. Fed officials have spoken in recent weeks expressing dissatisfaction with the current inflationary environment and its ramifications for price stability. 2. Pullbacks may likely respect the very short-term VWAP anchored to the YTD low (red VWAP anchored to October 13, 2022). Watch this VWAP for support. If the VWAP is violated, it will be important to determine if the violation is decisive (slicing through and showing no sign of reverting back to the level) or if the violation is minor and brief. 3. NVDA just closed above its 21-day EMA, which lies at 124.16. Today's close was 124.66. 4. Before any higher price targets can be taken seriously, NVDA must reclaim its 34-day EMA (currently just below $130) as well as a key Fibonacci level (teal .236 level at $128.10) (shown just below this paragraph). This is the most conservative target zone for a countertrend rally. Supplementary Chart: Fibonacci Levels 5. A more ambitious zone for a price target may be considered only if the 34-day EMA is recovered first. This secondary target zone comprises two technical levels: (a) the VWAP anchored to the August 4, 2022, high currently located at 143.08, and (b) the gap fill area (teal-blue rectangle) at $145 to $150. 6. It remains crucial to place any rally into context, even if the rally seems like a powerful rally that is unstoppable for a while, like some of the other bear rallies in this market. Massive bear rallies can trick market participants into thinking the lows may be in, and lure them with fear of missing out. Other countertrend rallies have ranged from 28.9% to 40.17%. Don't be fooled by a show of strength that does not change the overall structure. Countertrend trading is lower probability, but can be lucrative if risk is managed with great discipline. 7. The larger context is a downtrend at the degree of the primary trend. All major swing highs and lows over the past year have been lower highs and lower lows. The anchored VWAP at the all-time high (dark purple) remains well overhead. Price would have to rally and hold the $190-$200 level to show material structural change. All other rallies will constitute noise at the larger degree of trend. In other words, the downtrend channel should contain any rallies for the time being. If not, then it becomes appropriate to consider whether a larger-degree structural change is occurring that may lead to a major trend reversal. Please note that SquishTrade is "cautiously bullish" only for the next week. In the larger scheme, the outlook remains bearish until substantial evidence appears that structural trend change is occurring at the larger degrees of trend. This remains unlikely with interest rates breaking above a 40-year trendline as discussed in this post:
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NASDAQ:NVDA
by SquishTrade
31
How Many Times Will BTC Get Rejected?Primary Chart: Fibonacci Channel and Fibonacci Retracements for June-August 2022 Rally The bear market cannot be finished even if a bear-market rally happens tomorrow that leads BTC above its 11-month trendline. Dip buyers keep jumping in to "find the bottom." The five stages of a bear market include denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance . Could crypto and equity markets still be in denial? Or have markets moved to the third stage of bargaining? With all the talk of "double bottoms," in both equities and crypto, perhaps the current stage is "bargaining." Why? By framing the current selloff in this bear market as a "double bottom," market participants show that they are trying to cast the current ugly decline in a positive light. A double bottom, after all, is a pattern that implies a powerful rally after the second bottom, where the rally eventually exceeds the peak between the two bottoms and continues thereafter once confirmed. So all the banter about double bottoms shows that a lot of bullish hopes still have not been crushed. The end of a bear market, by contrast, evidences the fourth and fifth stages of bear-market grief, which is depression and acceptance (capitulation). Given how dip buyers keep swooping in to buy at each low despite the numerous rejections at trendline resistance levels (see the Fibonacci Channel on the Primary Chart), capitulation has not yet occurred. Price action today, September 30, 2022, came very close to the 11-month downward trendline. Price rejected before actually tagging this line. But will it break the 11-month trendline in the coming weeks? Why should this time be any different than the all the other rejections since its all-time high? No one knows for sure, but if 11 months of history is any guide, the odds favor lower prices even if a whipsaw break of the multi-month trendline occurs. Trendlines can break, and technical experts say that a broken trendline does not automatically equate to a trend reversal. Instead, it often leads to either (1) a sideways trend, or (2) a continuation of the trend at a different angle of descent. Many asset classes have now undercut June 2022 lows including major equity indices such as the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) and the Nasdaq 100 ( NASDAQ:QQQ ). It seems likely that BTC can fight the tide (breaking June 2022 lows) only so long. Or is something else holding the price sideways for the past two weeks? This author primary relies on technical, rather than fundamental, analysis. So any readers who wish to add a fundamental perspective in the comments (even if it runs contrary to this view) are welcome to do so. Supplementary Chart A: Nasdaq 100 Undercut June 2022 Lows The current consolidation can also be framed as a right-angled triangle. Right-angled triangles do not have to break in the implied direction that the sloping side of the triangle suggests. Price never has to do anything traders or technical analysts say. But right-angled triangles often do break in the direction of the sloping trendline—whether the sloping trendline is the upper edge or lower edge of the triangle. This has lead to their classification as a pattern that does imply a directional move once the consolidation completes. Right-angled descending triangles, such as the one shown in the post below, tend to break to the downside. The triangle shown below is nearing its end, or "apex." This implies that a directional breakout should soon occur giving relief to either the bears or the bulls, or perhaps frustrating them both with a whipsaw move. Supplementary Chart B: Right-Angled Triangle Reasonable downside targets have been discussed thoroughly in the related BTC posts linked below. ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
15
BTC Likely to Test June 2022 Lows SoonToday saw volatile, whipsawing price action in both cryptos and equity indices. BTC was no exception. As discussed in an article on September 19, 2022 at the start of this week (see link in the Primary Chart above), the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held their September 2022 meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. This meeting concluded today with a presser at 2:00 p.m. EST in the US. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clearly stated that monetary policy would continue to remain restrictive and tight for quite some time until inflation comes down toward its 2% target. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation. Inflation has been the number one problem in developed countries from a macroeconomic perspective, and it has been running at high levels not seen in decades. Though some argue that inflation may have peaked, and there are good arguments for this conclusion, it remains sticky and well above central banks' targets, which in the US is 2%. The Primary Chart above links to other recent posts on BTC where key levels are discussed in more detail than in this post, especially the downtrend line and key Fibonacci levels. After the FOMC presser, it appears that BTC is heading quickly to test June 2022 lows. BTC failed in its breakout attempts over the summer as to key levels. This is discussed in the prior posts linked in the Primary Chart above. In the most recent post regarding levels to watch this week, .786 retracement of the summer rally was identified as a key one to watch. Price chopped around this level with two failed breakout attempts. These failed breakouts are similar to the failed breakouts as to other key Fibonacci levels as well discussed in the linked recent posts. Supplementary Chart A: Failed Breakouts This Week over .786 Retracement Level Given these failed breakouts, combined with the failure on September 13, 2022, at the major downtrend line resistance, BTC is likely headed to test June 2022 lows soon. First it must violate the lows from earlier this week at 18,271. A successful violation of this level will lead directly to June 2022 lows. After that, some of the Fibonacci Channel lines can be considered as subsequent targets. Please also see the update by @Tradersweekly posted in the link below, which covers volume and some additional resistance levels based on multi-year price peaks. This article is highly recommended for a complementary but slightly different perspective on BTCUSD. ________________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for this week. Also note that countertrend trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. Countertrend trades are lower probability trades as well. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
2
BTC Weekend Update: Chop Continues Before Next Trend MovePrimary Chart: Fibonacci Channel with Fibonacci Retracements of Entire Summer Rally BRIEF SUMMARY: Price continues to chop above and below the $19,246 retracement level identified in prior posts in recent days. Price action appears to be consolidating before the next trend move—this next downward flush may occur very soon. During this consolidation, trapping price action is occurring where breakouts above and below $19,246 are failing, trapping bulls and bears. More chop could continue until the breakout. The breakout is likely to happen in the coming two weeks —this is confirmed by the Supplementary Chart below, showing that the apex of multiple triangles is very near. But watch for a more volatile whipsaw fakeout move just before the real move in the direction of the trend occurs. A key target zone is the $14,200-$16,200 area where the yellow circle has been placed on the chart above. This yellow circle overlays the teal .23 Fibonacci Channel line. A key Fibonacci retracement level at $16,098 coincides with this target zone . Below this target zone would be $ 13,900-$14,800, a support zone that coincides with 2019 peaks—see the blue rectangle. A horizontal Fibonacci level also coincides with this support zone, with a 1.272 extension at $14,275 running through the center of this support zone. Additionally, one important Fibonacci level of interest lies at $12,000-$12,107 . BITSTAMP:BTCUSD continues to chop above and below the $ 19,246 level at the .786 retracement of the entire summer's rally. Failed breakouts above and below this level have occurred. As of early September 24, 2022, price is holding slightly below this level after a major rout in equity indices in Europe, US and Australia and other countries over the past couple weeks. This .786 Fibonacci retracement was identified on September 12 and 16, 2022, posts, as well as discussed as a level of greater importance in the September 21, 2022 and September 19-20, 2022 updates. On September 19-20, 2022 (Monday), the key levels to watch going into the FOMC presser on September 21, 2022 (Wednesday) were analyzed. Specifically, the charts discussed the "key Fibonacci retracements of the entire summer rally", noting that BTC had been holding near its .786 retracement, at $19,246, of the mid-June to mid-August 2022 rally. The September 19-20, 2022 post stated: "This level lies at $19,246, and price has made a couple attempts to break below it, each of which has failed, suggesting more sideways chop into the FOMC's meeting. In the Primary Chart above, note how price has continued to chop above and below the .786 retracement at $19,246. Each breakout ends up being a trap move. This seems to be the chop zone that will be the base from which the next breakout will lead to the next large trend move down. Price could break soon. The following support and trendline resistance areas suggest a right-angled (descending) triangle. These triangles suggest a breakout direction by the descending angle of the down trendline that composes the upper part of the triangle. Supplementary Chart A: Support Zone and Descending Triangles Further, price action seems to suggest that a break lower could occur at any moment. Before the break, be wary of more chop / whipsaw moves, especially a sharp move higher to trap bulls one last time before the next flush lower. A whipsaw move is not guaranteed, but would be unsurprising given the way BTC has chopped in volatile ways lately. Supplementary Chart B: Key Horizontal Fibonacci Levels and Support Zone Bears, on the other hand, should be prepared for a scenario where the next flush lower could be capitulatory, which may support conditions for a multi-month short-covering bear rally. While this bear rally is a more speculative concept based on the way markets behave after capitulatory lows, it's not unreasonable to consider potential possibilities if a severe flush arises the next few weeks. Traders may enjoy such a rally as well as shorting the next leg down of the bear market in coming months.
by SquishTrade
7
NDX / QQQ Resumes Downtrend But Approaches Multi-Year SupportPrimary Chart: Several NDX / QQQ Trendlines and Multi-Year Support Zone at $254-$267 SUMMARY : The downtrend has resumed since the consolidation pause in the days leading up to the FOMC presser on September 21, 2022. Shorter-term targets include June lows at $269-$270, and if June lows are violated, the next target range is $254-$267 on QQQ, which equates to $10,720 to $11,000 on NDX. This target range is supported by Fibonacci projections as well as a multi-year zone of support, which could lead to an interim (temporary) low. Importantly, watch for any undercut of the June 2022 low, and watch for a failed breakout below that level of support—which could lead to another countertrend rally or a period of sideways chop. The bear rally in July and August 2022 had even the bears scratching their heads with their tired paws—"tired" because this year has been anything but an easy ride for bears and bulls alike. In July and August 2022, AAII sentiment even showed some bears took off their furry suit and put on some horns, as the number of bears dropped as price continued to rip higher. But the more steadfast and patient bears were rewarded yet again after the August 16, 2022 peak. In the end, the entire summer's rally was a mirage, a rally that drew in many thinking the worst was finished. This is common in bear markets, with bear rallies in the Nasdaq in 2002 ripping 30-60% higher over weeks, and sometimes months. But now, the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ has resumed its downtrend decisively since the August 16, 2022, swing high. Every time a multi-day rally has appeared, sellers have pounced to flood the market with supply, sending the NDX / QQQ back on its downward path. The next target from a purely technical perspective appears to be the multi-year zone of support near $254/$255 up to $267 on QQQ, which equates to approximately $10,720 to $11,000 on NDX. This is not far below where price traded today. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 11,501.66 / QQQ at $280.07. This zone of support is also supported by Fibonacci analysis. Fibonacci projections show conservative targets for this leg of the decline around $255.68-$267.53 (Supplementary Chart A), which closely align with the multi-year zone of support (shown on the Primary Chart). Supplementary Chart A: Fibonacci Analysis with Projections Based on Structure of the Current Decline from August 2022 Highs Supplementary Chart B: Fibonacci Channel Showing Potential Target Assuming Bear Market Continues into Next Year The Fibonacci Channel is plotted on a logarithmic chart going back 22 years to 2000 approximately, and the lows in the 2000-2002 bear market. Coincidentally, the $228 price level at the 2.00 line coincides with the longer-term trendline support at about $225-$230 early next year —shown on the Primary Chart as the upward trendline, the lowest trendline on the chart. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by SquishTrade
8
BTC: What to Watch Going into US FOMC Presser This WeekThe US Federal Reserve Open Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation that has been running at high levels not seen in decades. Though some argue that inflation may have peaked, it remains sticky and well above central banks' targets, which in the US is 2%. The Primary Chart above shows key levels to watch going into the FOMC presser. The downtrend line in blue, which is the zero line of the Fibonacci Channel, rejected price decisively on September 13, 2022. But with an important trendline such as this one, a retest of the line is not uncommon, similar to what occurred where BTC tested this line from March 28 to April 5, 2022 repeatedly before finally resuming the downtrend. This occurred at the end of BTC's powerful bear rally in March 2022 that coincided with equity indices' rally during that time. The area of resistance that could be tested should price rally or whipsaw higher this week is between $19,900 and $21,416. The Primary Chart uses a yellow-colored ellipsis shape to capture the strong, dynamic resistance levels of this down trendline. The Fibonacci Channel also shows the parallel diagonal lines that run at Fibonacci proportions to this downtrend line, which also should be watched for price support in the coming weeks. The Primary Chart also shows the key Fibonacci retracements of the entire summer rally. BTC has been holding just above its .786 retracement of the mid-June to mid-August 2022 rally. This level lies at $19,246, and price has made a couple attempts to break below it, each of which has failed, suggesting more sideways chop into the FOMC's meeting. The .618 retracement of the summer rally is at $20,521, a level that should also be watched closely. BTC struggled to get above this level in June and July with two failed breakouts. Finally, after getting above this line, BTC began declining and fell back below it after its mid-August 2022 peak. BTC attempted one more rally above it in early September 2022, but this ended up as a failed breakout, another bearish signal along with the downtrend line. In addition to the levels shown on the Primary Chart above, the Supplementary Chart below shows shorter-term Fibonacci levels that also may become relevant this week. Considering that this decline from September 13 to September 19, 2022, may be a completed wave 1 of some larger Elliott Wave structure, it becomes important to consider the retracements as places where the current corrective wave could reverse. These levels are $19,993, $20,526 (coinciding with the other .618 retracement level shown on the Primary Chart at $20,521), $21,058, and $21,815. Supplementary Chart A: Fibonacci Retracements of September 13-19 decline Given the impact interest rates—and tightening financial conditions—have had on risk assets, it may be prudent to also watch interest rates closely. For this purpose, see the 10-year yield chart below. Supplementary Chart B: Current Uptrend in US 10-Year Yield (TNX) and Multi-Year High Reached The 10-year yield has shown no signs of slowing down yet. It continues to push higher, holding its short-term upward trendline from around the start of August 2022 until the present. The longer-term uptrend line has remained in effect for 2.5 years since March 2020. Note also that the 8-day EMA has held as support along with the shorter-term steep upward trendline. Until this line breaks, it is unlikely that crypto assets and equities can make substantial progress toward reversing their current bearish trend structures. For the curious, another chart showing the correlation coefficient between BTCUSD and TNX is shown in the final chart below. This shows that for most of 2022, the relationship between BTC and interest rates has been inverse. Many probably already have known this intuitively while reading news about increasing rates to combat inflation while simultaneously witnessing bear markets across most risk assets this year. This correlation coefficient has at times reached -.64 and -.68, showing fairly high levels of inverse correlation, which means that as yields push higher, BTC has fallen lower. This level has also dropped to lower levels of inverse correlation. Currently, the coefficient is at -.49. Supplementary Chart C: Correlation Coefficient for BTCUSD and TNX (Weekly Chart) ________________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature . This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for this week. Also note that countertrend trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. Countertrend trades are lower probability trades as well. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD CME:BTC1! BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Editors' picks
by SquishTrade
30
Fib. channel fitted on linear scale and a 20W extension20W moving average (and a white shadow of a 21W EMA) has historically indicated a good near term cost basis. With a fitted fibonacci slanted channel (and more-or-less randomly extending the 20W average) we can plot a possible path for BTC, dancing between past fib level trend lines for resistance at important price levels, while also holding support at this imagined 20W SMA extension. Of course, depending on the weekly close, this can breakdown form 20W SMA, in which case we continue our crab, I think.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by umutbilgicapple
BTCUSD, 31-32k New Support?Hey traders, Taking a Fibonacci Channel from March 2020 lows, the 2018 bottom, and the 2019 summer highs gives us some key S/R levels. The 1.272 trend line (currently at 31-32k) looks like a possible area that we will hold before breaking/ bouncing. If this ends up bouncing it will go back to test the 1.618 trend line. However, if the price action manages to break 1.272, I will exit and consider a short. The target out of 1.272 is at the old 2017 ATH at 20k. That being said, I hope this info was useful to you! Safe trading, -Pulkanator
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Pulkanatir
Litecoin Fibonacci ChannelHey Traders, Litecoin has been an interesting lagging asset but has had very neutral projections. This is because while it looks like it's bullish, there are many other factors that could present a larger downtrend. First off, the Litecoin Dominance (LTC.D) is currently in a massive downtrend similar to the other OG cryptocurrencies such as Monero, ZCash, Dash, Bitcoin Cash, etc. This means that it is safe to give it the benefit of the doubt of it going up since it's market dominance downtrend will probably continue. Now that said, the Fibonacci channel from 2018-2020 shows that the price held at: 0.786 ($121 USD) reveals we are confidently heading to the next level of 1, ($180 USD). If we manage to break this level I would safely assume 1.272 ($300 USD) is in the books. However, if it gets rejected at 1 it will reverse back to the 0.786 level ($120-125 USD) once again. Most likely if it breaks the 0.786 level it will present a good short opportunity all the way to the 0.618 ($90 USD). Caution, base your trades off of what Bitcoin is doing, if BTC is going up, a short position is not the best idea. Safe trading, -Pulkanator
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by Pulkanatir
2
Concept Catalog:🖼️:EURUSD Multi Spectrum🎨 T/A ☄️In Alignment with a Chart based Bullish on 'Quality Risk' stance for foreseeable: A multi perspective case: The Rising Euro to USD from time of this posting, to upside target: ~1.40 🐂🏄‍♀️🧙🏻‍♀️ Please See Detailed Charts Below - FX_IDC:EURUSD FX:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD CAPITALCOM:EURUSD SAXO:EURUSD GLOBALPRIME:EURUSD KRAKEN:EURUSD CURRENCYCOM:EURUSD EASYMARKETS:EURUSD WHSELFINVEST:EURUSD AMEX:FXE
Long
by d-MR96nBa
6