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Fibonacci Retracement

Total2 Market Cap vs BTC Market CapToday we are looking at ratio charts. We plot the ratio of Total 2 Market Cap (Total Crypto Market Cap excluding BTC) to BTC Market CAP. This ratio chart is making new lower highs this BTC Halving cycle. There seems to be no bounce from the lows and Alt coin season seems to be elusive. As we move towards the end of the halving cycle there is very little time left for this Alt season. To reach the previous cycle highs of 1.5 in the chart the Alt Coins have to more than double from here and BTC must remain at this price for the rest of the cycle. For this the total Crypto market cap must reach almost 5 trillion USD, which remains unlikely. A better estimate will be the ratio of Total 2 Market Cap vs BTC Market Cap ratio reaches 1.09 which will be 0.618 Fib retracement level. This 0.618 fib retracement repeats in many instances. The same is true for BTC.D. What do you think?
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by RabishankarBiswal
Today's Market Overview and for Tomorrow Today's Market Overview: General Trend: The market seems to be consolidating after breaking key structural levels (BOS and CHoCH). The price is hovering near resistance zones (Premium and EQH) and shows potential for a move toward lower support zones (Discount and Equilibrium). Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support Zones (Fibonacci Levels): The range of $2,690 to $2,684 serves as a critical support area. Resistance Zones: The area around $2,718 to $2,725 acts as a strong resistance zone, likely to impede further upward movement. Scenarios for Tomorrow (January 21, 2025): If the price breaks above the $2,718 level and sustains, it may target the next resistance at $2,725 or higher. If the price drops below $2,698, it could retest the support zone between $2,690 and $2,684. Fibonacci Insights: Key Retracement Levels: Based on the chart, critical Fibonacci retracement levels seem to align near $2,705 (0.382) and $2,690 (0.618), making these levels important for potential reversals. Recommendations for Tomorrow: For Bullish Traders: Wait for the price to stabilize above $2,718 and look for buy (long) opportunities targeting $2,725 or beyond. For Bearish Traders: If the price breaks below $2,698, short positions targeting the $2,684 support zone could be profitable.
SAXO:XAUUSD
by hesamdrgym
Airtel Vs (TTML, MTNL, IDEA) - Pre-Rally Vs Post-RallyHere’s an assertive revision of your content: --- **Why Airtel Dragged While TTML, MTNL, and IDEA Blasted?** The government’s consideration of waiving 50% interest and 100% penalties on AGR dues created a buzz, and certain "gurus" began hyping a potential rally in **Bharti Airtel**, a fundamentally strong telecom stock compared to **TTML**, **MTNL**, and **Vodafone Idea**. **But the market did the exact opposite.** TTML (+16.5%), MTNL (+10.5%), and IDEA (+9.11%) soared, while Airtel struggled below 1%. The question is **why?** **The Answer: The Importance of Technical Structures, Supports, and Resistances.** Market participants often assume that fundamentals drive prices. This is the **biggest myth.** Fundamentals (valuations, PE ratios, book value, order books, quarterly results) can create momentum but never dictate its **direction.** Supports and resistances are the **primary drivers** of price movement. Relying solely on fundamentals is like pressing the accelerator while trying to reverse park—damages are inevitable. Now, let’s review the technical factors behind the explosive moves in TTML, MTNL, and IDEA compared to Airtel’s stagnation. --- ### **TTML** On the **monthly chart**, TTML formed a **bullish flag pattern**, breaking out in **July 2024**. However, the lack of momentum in the telecom sector kept it range-bound until now. **Key Points:** 1. A **77% correction** from its all-time high (ATH) formed the flag. 2. Sideways consolidation since March 2024 created a **strong base**. 3. This base aligned with the **Fib 0.618 retracement** from the previous high. TTML was primed for a move. The AGR news provided the necessary trigger, leading to the much-anticipated breakout. --- ### **MTNL** The **monthly chart** of MTNL shows a **multi-decade bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern**. After breaking out, the stock faced resistance at ₹103 and retraced **58.5%**, aligning perfectly with the breakout zone and the **Fib 0.618 retracement level.** **Why the Rally?** MTNL’s bounce was overdue, and the AGR news acted as a catalyst, triggering the massive move. --- ### **IDEA** Vodafone Idea, the weakest of the group, also surged 10% (hitting an intraday high of 15% before closing at 9.11%). Despite its struggles, IDEA displayed critical technical alignments: 1. A **65.54% correction** from its previous high. 2. Support at the **Fib 0.786 retracement** level. 3. A bounce from the **bottom of a rising parallel channel**. Though IDEA lacked the fundamental strength of TTML and MTNL, it still rallied due to the technical setup. --- ### **Bharti Airtel: Why Didn’t It Rally?** **Quarterly Chart** (Right): 1. Airtel has been traveling within a **multi-decade parallel channel**. 2. After consolidating for 13 years, it broke out in **October 2018**, delivering **613% returns** since then. 3. The stock reached an **extended Fibonacci target (Fib 2.618)**—an exhaustion zone. **Weekly Chart** (Left): 1. Airtel corrected only **15%** from its ATH. 2. It is still in a **lower high-lower low (LH-LL)** bearish formation. 3. The price was at a critical juncture of **two resistances**: - The **falling trendline** from ATH. - A **weekly resistance** at ₹1640. **Verdict:** Airtel had already rallied significantly before the news and was in an exhaustion phase. Strong resistances at current levels obstructed its movement. --- ### **Key Takeaways:** - TTML, MTNL, and IDEA rallied because they **completed major corrections, formed strong bases, and awaited a trigger.** - Airtel, having already rallied, was in a consolidation phase with significant resistance levels. **Conclusion:** Blindly trading based on news or fundamentals without considering technicals is a recipe for disaster. Fundamentals may create momentum, but the **direction** is always governed by supports and resistances. A sector-wide news event will not trigger the same momentum across all stocks unless their **technical structures** align. Always combine fundamentals with technical analysis for informed decision-making. **Disclaimer:** With over **3 years of teaching experience** in the stock market, including **Technical Analysis**, **Behavioral Analysis**, **Advanced Patterns**, **Emotional Management**, and **News-based Trading**, we are dedicated to educating, not advising on buy/sell decisions. We are **NOT SEBI Registered** and do not provide specific **Buy/Sell recommendations or calls**. Our primary goal is to deliver **detailed analysis** on how to review charts and offer multi-timeframe perspectives purely for **educational purposes**. We strongly recommend that our followers **"Learn to Ride the Tide, Regardless of Its Side."** **Important:** Always consult with a **financial advisor** before making any investment decisions. If you appreciate our detailed analysis, we encourage you to **rate, like, boost, and share your feedback**. **- Team Stocks-n-Trends**
NSE:BHARTIARTL
by Stocks-n-Trends
GOLD → A change in fundamental background. Strong resistanceFX:XAUUSD faces strong resistance at 2721 and enters correction phase, which also coincides with the change of fundamental background and economic data Weakening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, the US dollar and US bonds. In addition, expectations of stimulus measures from China improved market sentiment. Despite this, the downward trend for gold may remain limited due to Trump's rather risky policies and expectations of two Fed interest rate cuts later this year. Overall, gold prices are likely to be volatile in the short term due to holiday market conditions and Trump's upcoming executive orders. Technically, the price is inside a symmetrical triangle, which in turn is located inside an ascending channel. If the resistance is not broken, pressure will be applied to the support.... Resistance levels: 2713, 2717, 2721 Support levels: 2702, 2697, 2690 A retest of 2702 will increase the chances of support breakdown and further fall. It can happen after the resistance retest. I do not exclude a false breakdown of one of the mentioned resistance levels before a further fall. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
10
BTCUSD | 1D SMC Short Setup with Refined SL and TargetsDescription: This analysis identifies a high-probability short opportunity for BTCUSD on the 1D timeframe using the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) framework. The chart shows clear bearish confluences, including market structure, supply zones, liquidity levels, and Fibonacci retracement zones. I believe the current bullish momentum is merely a manipulation driven by inflation news and the upcoming Trump inauguration. Following these events, I anticipate a significant market correction. Here’s the detailed breakdown and trade plan: Analysis: Market Structure: Break of Structure (BOS): Price has confirmed a bearish trend with BOS to the downside, signaling a continuation of lower highs and lower lows. Trendline Resistance: A well-defined downward trendline indicates selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish bias. Key Zones and Liquidity: Supply Zone: Highlighted in purple at $102,000-$104,000 . This zone represents an area where strong selling previously occurred, creating an imbalance. Golden Zone (Fibonacci Retracement): Located around $101,000-$103,000 , this area aligns with the 61.8%-78.6% retracement levels and offers a high-probability reversal opportunity. Weak High: The high near $104,000 represents untapped liquidity, which smart money may target for a liquidity grab before reversing lower. Equal Lows (EQL): Around $92,000 , these act as a bearish target where liquidity rests, aligning with the continuation of the bearish trend. Confluences for Short Entry: Price is approaching the supply zone and Fibonacci Golden Zone , indicating a potential reversal point. The weak high may trigger a liquidity grab to entice buyers before sellers regain control. Previous BOS and trendline resistance add further validation to the bearish bias. Trade Plan: Short Entry Setup: Entry Zone: $102,000-$104,000 (inside the supply zone and Golden Zone). Stop Loss (SL): $105,500 (above the supply zone and imbalance to account for liquidity grabs). Take Profit Levels: TP1: $97,000 – Close partial profits at this imbalance mitigation level. TP2: $92,000 – Target the equal lows and resting liquidity. TP3: $88,000 – Final target near the blue demand zone for maximum reward. Risk-Reward Ratio: With the entry at $103,000 (midpoint of supply), SL at $105,500, and TP at $92,000, the trade offers a 1:4 RR or better, depending on execution and scaling. Additional Notes: Monitor the price action closely as BTC approaches the supply zone for confirmation, such as bearish candlestick patterns or lower timeframe CHoCH (Change of Character). Scaling into the trade in smaller portions across the supply zone can improve overall entry precision. Adjust stop loss or take profit levels as market conditions evolve
Short
by CryptoTrustCapital
2
GOLD 30m CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR DAILYGold (XAU/USD) Outlook for the Upcoming Week: The outlook for XAU/USD in the coming week depends on a combination of technical, fundamental, and economic factors, including the Federal Reserve's policy, economic data, and the strength of the U.S. dollar. Here's an analysis based on the provided chart: Technical Analysis: Overall Trend: The chart shows a medium-term uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows forming. A small pullback is observed toward the end of the chart, which could potentially act as a retracement before resuming the uptrend. Key Levels: Support Levels: $2,700 is the nearest support level. A deeper support is located at $2,685. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance lies between $2,715 and $2,720. A breakout above this zone could push prices toward $2,735. Indicators (if applicable): Indicators such as RSI or MACD (not shown in the chart) can confirm whether gold is in overbought or oversold territory. If RSI is above 70, it might suggest selling pressure could emerge soon. Fundamental Analysis: U.S. Economic Data: Key economic releases, such as inflation data (CPI) or employment reports, could influence the dollar. Weak U.S. data typically supports gold prices. Federal Reserve Policy: Any dovish signals from the Fed, such as reluctance to raise interest rates further, would be bullish for gold as a non-yielding asset. Geopolitical Risks: Heightened geopolitical tensions could increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Forecast for the Week: If prices hold above the $2,700 support level and break the $2,720 resistance, a continuation of the uptrend is likely. Failure to hold $2,700 could lead to a decline toward $2,685 or even $2,665.
SAXO:XAUUSD
by hesamdrgym
Will BTC continue its uptrend?Hi all, let's look at the 1D BTC to USDT chart, in this situation we can see how the price has broken out of the downtrend line and currently we can see how we are struggling to move towards the recent ATH at $108700. Let's start by defining the targets for the near future that the price must face: T1 = 106275 USD T2 = 108476 USD Т3 = 112839 USD Т4 = 115756 USD Т5 = 118876 USD Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to fall: SL1 = 102746 USD SL2 = 100744 USD SL3 = 99094 USD SL4 = 97479 USD SL5 = 95161 USD It is worth taking a look at the MACD indicator, which shows that we have entered an uptrend again, and here we have a visible place for this trend to continue. Additionally, on the SMAs 20 and 50 we can see how we are getting closer to returning to a strong uptrend.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
Alikze »» LINK| Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario🔍 Technical analysis: Bullish Wave 3 or C Scenario - 1D 📣 BINANCE:LINKUSDT currency on the daily timeframe touched its targets in accordance with the analysis presented earlier, the scenario of the first of 3 bullish waves. 🟢 Chainlink touched its target after breaking out of the short-term descending channel. 🟢 It is currently in the supply zone on the daily and weekly timeframes. 💎Given the bullish momentum, this bullish leg, after breaking the supply zone, will have the ability to grow to the large supply zone of $60-$100. 💎In the first step after breaking the supply zone, the target will be $38 and $55. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea 💡 with a LIKE 👍 and COMMENT 💬 if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email 📧 in the future. Thanks for your continued support.🙏 Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
Long
by alikze
4
MKR/USDT 1D chart - accumulationHello everyone, let's look at the 1D MKR to USDT chart, in this situation we can see how the price is moving in a channel where it is currently struggling to choose the direction of further movement. Let's start, however, by defining the goals for the near future that the price must face: T1 = $1,533 T2 = $1,703 Т3 = 1997$ Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to decline: SL1 = $1,301 SL2 = $1150 SL3 = $1008 When we look at the RSI indicator and the MACD indicator, we can see that we are moving at the bottom of the range, which may indicate an upcoming trend change, in this situation, after such accumulation, we should see price increases again.
Long
by cryptodailyuk
ZEN Trade Setup: Ride the Wave to +50% ProfitAfter a strong bullish impulse, ZEN completed a 5-wave structure resulting in a +72% price increase and successfully took out a key high. This marked a potential short trade opportunity at the key resistance level. Subsequently, the price retraced significantly, forming a pullback into the golden pocket (0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement), a high-probability buying zone. This corrective move also completed a 5-wave structure to the downside, providing a favorable long trade opportunity with a compelling Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio of 3:1. The target for this long trade is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the entire impulse wave at $35.86, representing a potential upside of nearly 50%. Additionally, the negative 0.234 Fibonacci level at $35.98 aligns closely with this target, creating a good confluence zone. Key Levels: Entry Zone: $23–$25 Primary Target: $35.86 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) Confluence Level: $35.98 (Negative 0.234 Fibonacci extension) Stop-Loss: Below the low of $21 for downside risk mitigation, DCA
Long
by SiDec
GOLD → Correction after a false breakout. What's next?FX:XAUUSD reaches a key resistance that stops a strong rally. A false breakdown triggered a correction, which could be a chance for comfortable buys. The gold price stabilized around $2,725 after a three-day climb, remaining under profit taking pressure. Strong data on China's economy failed to inspire the market as real estate concerns and possible U.S. tariffs dampened optimism. Expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to support gold despite mixed data on the US labor market and retail sales. The Fed chief's statements about possible rate cuts in the first half of the year are adding support to the metal. Next week, traders' attention will be focused on US housing and industrial production data. Support levels: 2700, 2697 Resistance levels: 2712, 2721 Global and local trend is bullish. Counter-trend correction is being formed. Technically, the correction may reach the zone of interest 2700 - 2697, from which we should expect a rebound, for example, to 2712, or even the recovery of the bullish trend. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
NZDUSD → The bearish trend may get its continuationFX:NZDUSD failed to realize the chance when the dollar went into correction. Buyers do not believe in the realization of the bullish scenario at the moment. The price continues to succumb to pressure On the weekly timeframe the price approached the strong support level 0.5545 - 0.55. Accordingly, a reaction in the form of a small correction is possible. Small, because the dollar continues its bull run, and Trump's policy allows to keep this scenario in the medium term. On H4, the price continues to test the support at 0.5588 and a local descending triangle is forming amid pressure from the bears. Possible retest of the channel resistance before further decline. Resistance levels: 0.563, 0.567 Support levels: 0.5588, 0.5511 Technically, a breakdown and consolidation of the price below 0.5588 will provoke further sales against the background of the current local and global downtrend. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
3
BTC1! short idea with open gap fill and catching a quick longAs you might know, open gaps have a fill-rate of 90-95%. Additionally the open CME-gap (1W-basis) has much confluence with important technical levels for support and it lies in the middle of two zones where enormous amounts of USDT-inflows came into the market. 1. the 2024-range (Q1 - Q3) 2. the 2025-range (Q1 at least) Where the new neckline also is, the new support that became resistance appeared. It might also be a good strike for smart money to know that above the biggest orderblock of 2024 support has developed more strength and consequence. So why you don't give it a try to retest it? Here a maximum of buying pressure should lead to a strong bounce of BTCUSD towards a new alltime-high, if and as long as global liquidity rises again. But if not, at least inflation should do half of the bullish job for BTCUSD and a "sideways up" would be my - historically BIASed - expectation. It begins with a shorter short. In the end it might be a very, very quick longer long because of my expectation of rising buying pressure with huge volume delta for the bulls below 78k.
CME:BTC1!
by BossmodeInvestments
2
SOL as a US reserve? Trump's new idea.Hello everyone, I invite you to a review of SOL paired with USDT over a wide interval of one weekend. As we can see, the price was moving in a downtrend channel from which the top emerged and here you can see how we are staying above this channel. We also have a visible upward trend line along which the price is currently moving to maintain the upward trend. Going further, it is worth noting that the price again returned above the support zone from $203 to $185, and below the zone there is strong support at $165, which kept the price from falling to around $142. Looking the other way, it can be seen that the price first has to face a very strong resistance zone from $238 to $261, only when it manages to break out of it, the path towards $300 will open.
Long
by cryptodailyuk
GOLD → Realization of consolidation and retest of resistanceFX:XAUUSD is testing a rather important resistance, a break and consolidation above which will open the way to 2721 - 2726. Technically, gold has entered the buying zone, and the fundamental background supports it Gold was supported by weak US inflation data, dollar correction and adjusted expectations of Fed rate cuts, as well as hopes for stimulus in China. Traders' attention shifts to December retail sales and jobless claims in the US. These data will help clarify the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Weakened dollar and lower bond yields support the current growth of gold. Technically, all eyes are currently on the uptrend and resistance at 2697.8 Resistance levels: 2697.8, 2700 Support levels: 2690, 2678 If gold can consolidate above 2697-2700 and the bulls hold the defense above this zone, we should expect growth in the short and medium term. But do not forget about the news that will be published later. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
16
XLMUSDT → High readiness for a bull run to 0.6100BINANCE:XLMUSDT is ready to move into the realization phase after coming out of a strong accumulation. The market is struggling for a strong buying zone. The coin, technically, is ending its correction. The price is gradually updating highs and breaking intermediate resistance levels, but the key factor is the exit from the medium-term consolidation and breaking the resistance of the descending channel formed on H4. If the bulls hold the defense above the key support zone 0.46 - 0.452, we can expect growth in the medium term. In addition, the rising bitcoin and the approaching Trump inauguration can be good drivers for the cryptovalt market. Resistance levels: 0.486 Support levels: 0.4605, 0.4522 Thus, the focus is on the consolidation of 0.486, 0.46. A break of resistance will activate the rally. False break of support and consolidation above the level will also be a good signal that the bulls are quite aggressive. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
3
GOLD → Uptrend, price depends on CPIFX:XAUUSD continues to form an uptrend on the local and medium-term timeframe. The price is again testing strong resistance on H4-D1 and is showing signs of readiness to rise to 2700-2750. The PPI report was a bit of a surprise and a small driver for the markets, including gold, as the dollar moved into correction. CPI is ahead and bets are high on the report as it could change the market's assessment of the prospects for a Fed rate cut this year. A strong CPI could add pressure on gold, while a weak report would support the bulls.Hawkish Fed rates are supported by the premise that Trump, who begins his second term next week, is likely to fuel inflation with his protectionist policies. Technically, there is an area of volume density and order block ahead, which could trigger a small pullback to support from which upside could continue. Support levels: 2678, 2674, 2669 Resistance levels: 2690, 2697, 2703 But, in the short (mid) term everything depends on the news. CPI is ahead and with weak data gold may go on a bull run, but strong data may stop the growth and turn the metal around. Focus on key levels! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
EURJPY → The fall may continue after the correctionFX:EURJPY is under pressure. The currency pair is breaking the local uptrend. Technical and fundamental background is weak, which in general can put pressure on the market. Globally, the currency pair has no trend and is trading within the range of 166 - 156. The last growth attempt was unsuccessful, the price could not approach the intermediate maximum and facing a strong bear the price turned around and fixing below the SMA headed to the lower boundary of the flat. Locally, the change of character to bearish is confirmed, but before further fall the price may form a correction, for example, to 0.5 Fibo (imbalance zone), or to local zones of interest, but in the medium term the fall may continue. Resistance levels: 162.3, 163.1 Support levels: 160.9, 159.8 A false breakdown of local support is formed, which may lead to correction, but since we have confirmation that the market is bearish, after the correction the fall may continue. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
SOLANA → Will a false breakdown be the cause of the rally?BINANCE:SOLUSDT is testing a previously broken downtrend boundary as part of a correction. Bulls are employing aggressive methods to keep defenses above key support ahead of Trump's inauguration, keeping hopes high On the weekly timeframe, the market is supported by SMA50 support indicating a strong uptrend. The focus is on two strong levels: 204.75 and 175. These are the boundaries of the current range. A breakdown of any of the boundaries will play a key role in further price movement. But I consider the realization of resistance as a priority. On D1 yesterday a false break of strong support was formed in the form of previously broken downtrend resistance. This indicates that the market is still in a bullish plane and on the background of upcoming important news this could have a favorable impact for the coin. Resistance Levels: 203-204 Support levels: 183, 175 If the price starts to retest the support at 175 and form a consolidation with a gradual downward compression, the risk of breaking the bullish pattern will increase. But, based on fundamental data, I expect a consolidation above 183 and further growth Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
12