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Mar 2 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription: Things I'm thinking about this morning. Points of Interest: Untested POCs, October low, 200 moving average, 50% and 61.8% retracements, gap at the beginning of the sell-off, Monday $VIX pop to $40+. Technical: Untested POCs (see related ideas) beneath February high were erased in a swift correction. In my opinion, the virus-related news is the match that lit the fire (i.e., this was coming). I'm expecting some sort of bounce and retest of the lows. Additionally, half of the S&P 500 stocks are in bear market territory right now (www.reuters.com). Index Analysis: $RUT: TVC:RUT $NDX: TVC:NDX $DJI: TVC:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA Fundamental: Fed split on whether to cut or maintain rates; spending sees loss in momentum, but consumer fundamentals in a good place; goods trade deficit contracted; manufacturing business outlook recently rose to it's highest levels, but virus and future trade issues may complicate things; housing market hot as home building permits rise to highest levels; debt levels declining; world supply chains at risk due to this virus thing; global yields have generated massive inflows in passive indices that are heavily weighted towards a few stocks. In The News: "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank will “act as appropriate” to support the economy in the face of risks posed by the coronavirus epidemic, though he said the economy remains in good shape overall" (www.reuters.com). Fed funds futures "pricing in more than an 80% chance of a new 1% to 1.25% Fed target range for short-term borrowing costs by March 18, when the Fed next meets, down from the current 1.5% to 1.75% range. Pricing also shows traders expect rates to drop to the 0.5% to 0.75% range by July" (www.reuters.com) “Consumers shielded the economy from global headwinds for most of 2019 but they won’t prove immune to the coronavirus outbreak,” said Lydia Boussour, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “Persistently low inflation bolsters the case for a Fed rate cut as soon as March given the sharp tightening in financial conditions" (www.reuters.com) "Still, consumer fundamentals remain healthy. Personal income jumped 0.6% in January, the most since February 2019, after gaining 0.1% in December" (www.reuters.com) " he shrinking goods trade deficit could somewhat limit the downside to GDP growth. A third report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the goods trade deficit contracted 4.6% to $65.5 billion in January. Goods imports tumbled 2.2% last month and exports dropped 1.0%" (www.reuters.com) "While the coronavirus is disrupting supply chains for manufacturing, some sections of the industry do not appear to be experiencing significant distress. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose 6.1 points in February to a reading of 49.0, the highest level since August 2019, a fourth report showed. The joint MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago survey suggested a marginal impact on businesses in Chicago area from both the coronavirus and last month’s signing of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China" (www.reuters.com) Information I'm Carrying Forward: Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (www.reuters.com) "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash. Why it matters: Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (www.axios.com) "So add low interest rates to suppressed inflation (temporarily) coupled with slowing worldwide growth, and we get a powerful upward force for stock prices. Our upside target for the S&P 500 Index is now 3600 or higher." (www.cumber.com) "A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (www.bloomberg.com) Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
GBPUSD Great trade idea that I capitalized on. Just wanted to go over it real quick. First thing that stood out to me is that we are in a bullish market right now for GBPs and the market was in a discount area. As you can see since we were in a discount area it was a confirmation for me to buy it which, I did I will be holding this trade for the remainder of the week. Also we have the PO3 coming to play at the market projection hours that you must be paying attention to for GBPS. Check out the other GBPS they did the same.
Long
by JohnnWick
AMZN - 1/8/20 intraday levelsInteresting night last night... pre-market isn't compelling in either direction so I'm not going to try to predict direction. To my eyes, both AMZN and the market could go either way. I will note that we are trading a lot of volume at this price, which would great a good support level for bulls if we can hold above that $1901.82 area. resistance levels Yesterdays high at 1913.89 is the first level to take out. $1917.51 is a level that personally have my eye on as a more important resistance level based on historic price action. 1925.56 minor resistance, and then 1942.00 another level I'm watching closely. support levels We've got a few minor levels just below us if we decide to pullback. I've brightened up the levels that I'm watching closely. Notice we also have some fib confluence on some fo these levels for this swing low/high. Watching 1894.89 area closely as the volume at price for that level is the point of control over the past 10 or so days. Fib .382 retracement has some price history, minor. Watching the 50% retracement which has had some price respect but not a lot of volume at price. Next level down is 1876.50 area, decent volume at price and previous respected level. Finally, last nights bottom near 1853.66 has seen respect. Those are the levels I'm watching. If we can catch a bid above $1901.82 level I think AMZN has some real upside potential due to limited overhead resistance.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by danbeaulieu
AMZN - breached a key level for the bulls!We've been tracking AMZN for a few days now. View my initial post here : We're sitting on top of our key level the 61.8% retracement level off of all time high ($1901.88). We've respected this level historically and again in recent history. If we can turn it into support , I very much like a swing entry towards $1942 or better from this level. I've zoomed out to the 4 hour chart so we can see the big picture here. As we can see by the volume profile, there is not a lot of resistance above this $1901.88 level. If we can get the market to blow in our direction we have strong upside potential. But this was always the goal. We do have a possible rising wedge forming, but its unconfirmed so I've sketched it out with dotted lines. Just something to keep an eye on. Day trading levels Resistance , If we can hold above $1901.88 and build from there, the next level of resistance I see is 1917.51, followed by a move to 1942.00! Support, If we fail to hold onto $1901.88 and the levels just below it down to $1900, I'm watching $1881.85 to hold as support. My sentiment I cannot call out bullish yet until we've proven that $1901.88 is our support. But it's a great sign we've broken this level. If we can turn this level into support I'm long for a swing. Otherwise, we'll fall back into the chop for a while longer.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by danbeaulieu
Wait for Daily Zone Retest and BIG BUY for potential 500 pips!!! I chose to use H4 Chart to show because its clear. This analyis is using the Daily and weekly time frame for higher validation. GJ has made a major push up and broke through consolidation box or prior Daily ROOF, major momentum showing that BULLS are in charge. Now pullback should happen to one of the Fibs levels, I have them all colored 38 50 and 61! I will be looking to make my entry at 61.80 but if at 50% it has a great rejection wick or engulf Ill get in there even though its not the most Ideal. That is PLAN A! it also coincides with uptrend on daily and weekly. Plan B is if it breaks past all fibs levels I will wait until trend line break or break of Daily consolidation bottom to sell it down! This I feel is unlikely but at the end of the day PLAN B! SIDE NOTE- If you look at the PAST of this pair, you will see that it does not like to stay this low, the pair likes to stay in the middle so I believe it is working its way back to the normal price points. Look at monthly to see what I mean as well as weekly!
Long
by tayg23
Not Getting Too Excited yet...here's why. **BTCUSD** Looking at the daily demand, we've now broken it and we REALLY need to hold this area and break out confidently from this descending structure, otherwise we're looking at the low 8's / high 7's in the short term. There is a bit of liquidity, where we ranged between 7.7 - 8.4 from the 26/09 - 26/10, which I wouldn't be surprised if we revisited again if we can't hold this area and move up. In regards to this wedge - to back it up we also have some bullish divergence on the CCI, where IF we break upwards, we could very well see a re-test of the 8.9k mark where we face some heavy resistance in the 50fibs and also our ichi. Lots of people been calling a bullish run lately and right now... I don't really see it and even with a break of this wedge i'd be cautious of jumping on any fomo run. Not in any trade currently, but always willing to change my bias depending on what's presented at the time.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Unity-Trading-Group
This area NEEDS to Hold..BTCUSD After another 24hr in bitcoin, it's not looking any better just yet. On the daily, we've pierced demand yet again, with a near perfect touch of the 61.8 fibs, with no new higher highs occurring. Sentiment remains the same from yesterday, although things aren't looking any better for the bulls at this stage. This daily doji represents indecision in the market right now, so until such time as we get a clear break into the cloud, or above our supply zone, we remain neutral. This area NEEDS to hold..
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Unity-Trading-Group