Please Sir can I have some more?Now for some optimism in this era of anticipated FUD and panic. The technicals might be bearish but just consider the divergence between the actual Bitcoin price and all of the pipeline institutional developments on the horizon for Q1 2019. Consider that Bitcoin might actually be printing a parabolic arc and is very very close to the actual bottom. This parabolic arch makes sense based on what's still to come and based on the trough aligning with our weekly SMA200 which many believe to be our last line of defense before capitulation.
If you look at our SMA200 resistance on the daily chart (SMA1200 on the 4H), you'll see this is around our $6500 resistance which acted like an iron curtain during our extended stay during the $6ks. I think a daily close above the SMA200 should signal the beginning of a strong new uptrend which could potentially set us up for a golden cross between SMA50 and SMA200. If this arch plays out, then the general pattern could fit quite well within a large ascending channel where resistance is formed by connecting the 15 October swing high to the height of the arch, which gives us an upside target of $15-$16k.
SMA200 on the daily chart also coincides with 29 December, the SEC's decision date regarding the Van Eck bitcoin ETF. An approval might just be what we need for a close above the daily SMA200 and since the decision has carried so much weight in the media these past few months, a rejection or deferral to 28 February could be the catalyst for capitulation, in which case the price could reach $1k based on the 168.1 fib extension from the 200 week SMA.
If we do have capitulation, we still have Bakkt bitcoin futures launching on 24 January, Fidelity launching their institutional platform for Bitcoin sometime early next year, and if the SEC decision regarding the Van Eck bitcoin ETF is deferred to 28 February 2019, then this might be the catalyst since it is the very final decision date and the Van Eck apoplication has carried a lot of weight in the media these past few months.
Good luck and happy trading!
