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Filbfilb

Bitcoin could see $37.5KBitcoin (BTC) is set for a “bigger move” as soon as next week, fresh analysis says as volatility faces a breakout situation. In its latest market update, trading suite Decentrader told readers that the time would soon come to “pull the trigger” with liquidity as BTC price action goes up or down. Analyst on BTC: "The bigger move is coming" Bitcoin has been making lower highs and higher lows throughout this week as a descending wedge on lower timeframes sees volatility ebb. Such a situation cannot last forever, and for Decentrader’s Filbfilb, it has a matter of days left to run.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by destlefttowell
Bitcoin Ranging; Bulls Shook. So yesterday’s selloff largely induced by the Fed non-news event saw a decent response by the bulls who have brought price back across 11400, having defended the daily low/support at 11300. In context of the weekly chart, 11k appears to be holding as support but a close above the key 11500 support/resistance level would be the immediate objective to remain relatively comfortable in the overall bullish re-accumulation idea which has a target of the monthly Pivot (c.12925 and Monthly resistance / weekly wick at 13870.) We are now in a falling wedge-like pattern which has now a double bottom at the base of the pattern which is specifically what I look for before adding pre- breakout. It is also accompanied by several bullish divergences on the 4 hour across OBV and the Terminator indicator. Should this play out, the target would be up towards resistance 11800-11900 where I am looking to take profit on leverage. I remained long yesterday for a few main reasons; negative futures premium, no lower low close, sheer panic on CT and calls for 9k, no break of overall support and because the price action on gold and silver to which we have been heavily correlated practically tick for tick, reversed ahead of BTC which continued dumping. You will see from the bot I did not dump and also from my P&L in the bybit comp. On my perps accounts I did hedge at 11222 but removed it on the way back up with tight stops meaning profits were booked this morning on the 11300 long position. Cross timeframe Predator/terminator analysis shows, Bitcoin is slowly turning a corner; my plan for the day is to see reaction at 11300 and look to actively trade the 30 Minute chart, with the overall idea of building a long.. subject to the picture remaining as is. Today we have August Futures closing which may result in volatility this afternoon so watch out for seom action this afternoon. As we have discussed, alts on the daily remain toppy, but while Bitcoin remains in its holding pattern, im remaining in the few alt positions that I have. Im interested in ETH closing above $412 which would potentially be a leading indicator for the whole market. SO overall plan remains as above. I will continue to monitor the correlation to the metals and inversely to the DXY.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by filbfilb
11
Bitcoin Forecast; End of Year Bull Run.Clearly defined Monthly ranges on the Bitcoin Chart. A Superb recovery fo the price of Bitcoin but approaching major supply zone. Could see a climatic Fomo halving attempt across $10k which may prove too much for the bulls to close on the monthly and more time in the range 9.2 - 6.5 could be needed. It might be frustrating for the bulls but would provide a solid base with potential for a higher low and a right shoulder / Wyckoff pattern on higher timeframes which would Position the market superb for a bull market end 2020 and into 2021. Will add to this in due course but consider this a broad end of year forecast. Worth checking the linked chart here too in the context we could see up a right shoulder and really gain some momentum into the end of the year. Drop it alike and all follow all the other stuff in the footer if useful, cheers. Filb
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by filbfilb
30
Bitcoin: Death Cross, but is that it?With the world markets in Turmoil, Bitcoin has managed to bounce around 70% from its lows and we now find ourselves at round $7k at the time of writing. It makes sense to have a review of the market to see how things are shaping up. What we currently know is that Bitcoin is trading below all the key moving averages and the yearly pivot, we know that losing these caused the cascading effect to the downside and until they are regained I must remain bearish from a purely TA perspective. I will discuss the wider economic picture later on. The above chart has most of the information needed to understand the importance of the current price point Bitcoin is at. There is a large volume node ending at $7k which also crosses a descending diagonal resistance which has only been broken once since July 2019. Should this be broken, Bitcoin will find itself with a potential run up to around $8k where there is a formidable level of resistance: - Yearly pivot point - 61.8% retracement of 2020 lows-Highs - 200, 50 , 100 Day moving average - 50/200 Daily pending death cross - 20 Week Moving Average - High Volume Node Therefore any long side positioning at $7k is likely to run into possibly the worst cluster of resistance seen since the bear market of 2018 and caution must be taken to account for this should Bitcoin break $6.8-7k; the prize is 15% of upside but I’m expecting the hammer to fall so it’s worth bearing in mind that a return to $7k is likely to occur. The best case I can see for bitcoin at the moment is pushing for $8k and then turning $7k resistance into support and then trading sideways for a few weeks. The new bull-bear determining factors are the bullet points above, reclaiming these would be incredibly bullish and I would have to be fully invested at this point. Should Bitcoin fail to take $7k, the good news is that the 200 week moving average, despite being lost briefly, was reclaimed and there was significant buying support, which is clearly visible in the volume and the OBV indicator below. BTCUSD 3 Day chart So as it stands, I am interested in re-buying retracements to the 200 WMA should they materialise or a break above the huge resistance cluster at $8k. I do have a small long position at the time of writing, on the basis that there has been continued strength in the order books building and backfilling on dumps, while there is seemingly more demand than supply around the 200 week moving average, this is but overall I’m interested in selling $8k and being long $5.8k. Immediate Support / Resistance Support at 200 Week moving average 5.5-6.2k - Resistance 6.8k 7.2k and huge resistance at $8k. Bigger Macro Economic Picture. Clearly the world is going through an almost unimaginable situation. Thinking back to the start of the year, it would have been obtuse to suggest that Bitcoin would swing from $7k to 10.4 and then down to the $3ks and the world would be on total lockdown by mid-March; this situation was somewhat unexpected. The fall out is unprecedented Economic uncertainty. Major indices are down around 35%; the fed has “Unleased an unlimited Treasury Purchase Plan” - Unlimited; what could possibly go wrong. In a nutshell, this meant two facilities on top of other fiscal stimulus i) first facility to prop up large employers involving bridge financing for up to four years for investment-grade companies, in exchange for purchases of newly issued corporate debt by the Fed. Businesses could defer principal and interest payment to preserve cash for up to six months, but they would not be allowed to buy back shares or pay dividends if they tap the facility. ii) A second programme would allow the Fed to purchase corporate debt in the secondary market. These measures have been replicated by other central banks in one form or another but clearly the intention is to massively increase the cash flow for businesses in order to keep them alive while aggregated demand in the world economy falls off a cliff. Businesses are effectively borrowing the cash they need to survive during this time; the problem being how long the time is going to be. The problem here is that there is an expectation that businesses will repay the debt out of future earnings and the fact is not an industry specific bail out. Clearly servicing the debt is going to be difficult having had top line income obliterated for an unknown time frame. Overall, shareholders have suffered a loss of value in their investments and are indebted to the fed, but the fed has put a band aid on to keep things going for now, the detriment being the additional cash that will be in the system. I don’t need to preach about how additional money supply will put an upward pressure on inflation and erosion of wealth for those holding fiat currency; but there is another issue that isn’t being discussed in much detail and that is the erosion of tax collections by the state; corporate tax is going to take a colossal hit so the Governments are also to be hit on their cash flow for a unknown period. This means that not only is the money printer working overtime to provide “temporary” liquidity to businesses, but it is also going to have to do work to fill the gap on the government income side; the only possible outcome is a rapid increase in state budget deficits and debt (to the fed – important point). The reason I have temporary in inverted commas is that I don’t see how businesses are going to be able to return the funds in the timeframe mentioned due to the seismic effect on the already fragile system. So realistically this is more likely the beginning of this problem than the end, the S&P500 and other markets have recovered somewhat, but the mind boggling thing is that the money printing is going to naturally artificially inflate the stock market to some extent simply due to the dollar devaluation, despite the companies ploughing into their distributable reserves by using the cashflow stimulus. The S&P500 is now trading in a technical bear market with price below the 200 WMA and in impending Daily death cross. SPX 3 Day chart So regarding a recovery in the world markets in real-terms; its seems unlikely to say the least in the short term. The resulting additional indebtedness of the population will be repaid somehow; either through devaluation of the currency held or though corporate equity loss. One of my favourite charts is the Money supply adjusted S&P500 chart; this has never been more relevant. The chart shows that in real terms we are about half of the way through a real SPX loss like 2008 in real terms. I can remember working in 2008 and there was no big world wide shut down and as far as we know the financial system is not in much better shape to simply absorb a situation like this. SPX 3 M2 Adjusted Day chart So what are the expected outcomes? In my view, the additional cash flow bail out to the private sector, the reduced tax income and the unknown length of the issue underhand, while interest rates are already effectively zero spells out major risk of a continued economic downturn with very real risk of hyperinflation. Things are going to get very real in the states in the next few weeks as the parabolic impact of the COVID-19 virus takes over. These are the very reasons Bitcoin was created. We know that Bitcoin is hard capped and that flight to safety assets will be the main benefactor in this situation;- eventually. There was a major decoupling in 2008 after a 50% draw down in real terms off the top of the S&P500 before gold decoupled and started moving higher while the S&P fell another 10% off the top. In equivocal terms, we are about 35% off the top in real terms, so it appears there is a real risk of further downside and if history is anything to go off, we may see additional impact on Gold and possibly Bitcoin as the reality of the situation occurs. This is a complex topic and one that could be discussed indefinitely, but the key takeaway is that this is the very scenario that Bitcoin was created for. It is pleasing to see that mining revenue has recovered to more of a sustainable level which should help to protect the network as this was a concern of mine with the halving coming up, but overall the global situation at the moment should mean the price of Bitcoin can only really go one direction in the medium term; Money supply is increasing at an unprecedented rate, while Bitcoin’s inflation rate is halving. Assuming demand for sovereign hard assets is underlying and with there very much likely to be more on the way, it’s difficult to see how Bitcoin will not appreciate significantly in both nominal and real terms in the forthcoming years Time will tell Filb - Extract from Newsletter in Signature.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by filbfilb
133
Bitcoin: Not a bad hedge. The Price of Bitcoin has continued to waft to the upside, elegantly respecting support and resistance at key moving averages and volume nodes. A fundamental lack of sellers after capitulation has led short speculators to be squeezed as they either try to find liquidity to take profit or simply speculating short against real buy interest and continued profit taking. Its unclear how much demand will be affected by systematic shocks across the world in the financial markets. Clearly risk is to the downside in equities, however Central Bank printing/stimulus is stirring a demand reallocation towards hard assets. In TA terms: Bull Case: Liquidity Magnet around and above $8k Support/Resistance smash after capitulation; evident in VPVR Gap in interest 7500-7800 Little selling interest for Bitcoin; HL HH / Buyers in control Volume remains above average Above Multiple Key Weekly Moving averages Bear Case: High correlation to equity markets / systematic risk Declining Volume Approaching Resistance Dead Cat Rising Wedge If you forced me to be with the halving coming id think we dabble around $8k retest $7 and then break it and pump. Worst case we struggle along with everyone else in the market. I think as a % Bitcoin might outperform the equities, so there might be opportunities there. Long Bitcoin short the Banks has never seemed a more attractive hedge exposure to me.. not advice. Regards
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by filbfilb
46
BULL CYCLE TOP( TIME AND PRICE)CYCLE 1 Inception- 2011 (6 June) the first cycle high $32 CYCLE 2 PEAKS: 2011 (6 June) – 2013 (25 November) $1177 29.5 months CYCLE 3 PEAKS: 2013 (25 November)- 2017(11 December) $20,000 48.5 months - 64% OR 19 months longer than the 2011-2013 peak of 29.5months Below are price and time predictions based on the logarithmic chart as well as an extrapolation of the time difference between the (2011-2013 ) and the (2013-2017) peaks. I used cycle tops and not cycle bottoms for these scenario casts. NB: This is still speculation so take from it what you want. SCENARIO 1 PEAKS: 2017(December)- 2024(June) $450,000 79.5months (48.5months+64%) SCENARIO 2 PEAKS: 2017(December)- 2023 (December) $350,000 72 months (79.5 months but rounded off to nearest calendar year) SCENARIO 3 PEAKS: 2017 (December)- 2023(June) $280,000 67.5 months (48.5months+19months) SCENARIO 4 PEAKS: 2017(December)- 2022(December) $230,000 60 months (67.5 months but rounded off to nearest calendar year) SCENARIO 5 PEAKS: 2017(December)- 2021(December) $150,000 48 months (Standard 4-year cycle) Comment and let me know which scenario you believe is most likely.
BNC:BLXLong
by Quinn89
THIS CHART LOOKS SHITY ! DOWN TRENDI AM BTC STANDARD GUY . AS UGLYOLDGOAT AND TYLER JENKS ( R.I.P GRANDPA THAT I NEVER HAD) DESCRIBED IT I THINK THERE IS A PLACE TO BITCOIN IN PPLS DAY LIFE AND THE LAST THING I WANT TO LOSE MORE THAN I LOST ALREADY. I MADE A CHOICE FIRST IM A CHARTIST - A NEW ONE, MATURE AND MESSY. VERY VERY MESSY. AND IM LEARNING EVERY DAY TO CHART. THIS IS WERE ALL THE Q&A R EXIST ALL DESIGIONS, FEARS, HAPPINESS, TEARS, MACRO CROWD DESIGIONS, BIG PLAYERS AND MARKET MOVERS ALSO THE PPL THAT R NOT PARTICIPATE IN TRADING ALSO HERE BCAUSE SITTING ON THE BORDER OR NOT KNOWING ABOUT THE GAME IS ALSO PART OF THE MACRO GAME. IN ANY MARKET NOT ONLY CRYPTO. AFTER THIS PROLOG - PLZ ANSWER, DO YOU C THIS CHART BULL ? IF YOU LOOK ON THE TREND - YES IT IS IT IS BULLISH AS FUCKING SHTRONGOL BUT WHAT KEEPS IT UP ? THIS IS WEEKLY CHART AND THERE IS NO VOLUME AND I CARE LESS ABOUT VOLUME ON CANDLES ( THAT ALSO DECLINES AND LOOSING FUEL) BUT IT DOESN'T TELLS YOU HOW STRONG IS THE TREND. VPRV IS TELLING YOU THIS. AND - WHERE IS IT? GREEN BOX ON THE VPRV IS A FIFTH OR LESS THAN PREVIOUS YEARS ALSO FOUND NEW ( TO ME ) DOWN TREND CHANNEL THAT REJECTED ALREADY 5 TIMES - ORANGE ARROWS. USUALLY IF PRICE HITTING SAME RESISTANCE SEVERAL TIMES IT TEND TO BROKE - BUT 5 TIMES ALREADY IN 3 YEARS...? AND IN DECLINING ANGLE? THE YELLOW CIRCLE TELLS ME THAT THE TREND CHANNEL IS LEGIT- SO THE NEXT LOW IS WHAT ? 2500-2000$?? TONE VAYS GONNA GET 2 STEAKS FOR HIS BET ? LOOK AT RSI BREAKING UNDER 50, MACD - SAME. THE GREEN BOX IS THE PLACE WHERE WAS THE LAST SIGNIFICANT VPRV FROM WEEKLY PERSPECTIVE RIGHT NOW WE SITTING ON 50 EMASMA AND ORIGINAL S.A.R( LUCID S.A.R IF YOU SEARCH IN INDICATORS) MOVE TO 8200 PROBABLY WILL FLIP THE S.A.R AND BREAK THE EMASMA- AND THEY R USUALLY NOT CHAPPY INDICATORS ON BIG TF AS WEEKLY THE CHART JUST A CREATE ANOTHER LOWER LOW ... IT LOOKS LIKE FROM 08.2016 LESS AND LESS NEW MONEY COMING IN OR MABY THERE IS MORE MONEY COMING BUT NOT ENOUGH IN AMOUNT THAT NEEDED. ENOUGH TO OPEN "BITCOINS WALLET CHART " SOME HUGE SLEEPING WHALES, SOME HUGE DEAD WALLETS WITHOUT KEYS SOME CRYPTO EXCHANGE WALLETS THAT MOVES IN AND OUT OUR BITCOIN THAT WE TRADE . AND HUGE NUMBER OF WALLETS WITH MICRO AMOUNT OF SATOSHIS. ADOPTION AMONG SIMPLE PPL DECLINING WITH MULTIPLY ALTCOINS- ITS CONFUSING - "BITCOIN.COM" / "BITCOINSV" AND ALTS AND SOME HARD BITCOIN PERSONS THAT STARTS EYEING TO "ANOTHER GREAT UNDERGROUND FARYTALE MONEY" THATS WHY TETHER PROBABLY WILL B THE CRYPTO TREASURY DEPARTMENT ...THEY GONNA PRINT TETHER AS MUCH AS THE ENVIRONMENT NEEDED TO KEEP IN NOT ONLY HUGE AD/PROMO CHARITY FUND CAN HELP SPREAD THE IMPORTANCE OF BITCOIN- IM WATCHING THIS MARKET SINCE END 2017 UNCONDITIONALLY UNBITCOINERS HAVE MUCH HIGHER VOICE THAN BITCOIN STANDARD PPL SO THIS IS MY 50+ CENTS HOPE PPL THAT I TAGGED WILL NOT BAN ME FOR MY MATURE SHIT SORRY FOR MY ENG- LEARNED IT IN LAST 1.5 YEARS SINCERELY ME
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by justclueless123
2
Bitcoin: Test for the bulls. Bitcoin lost the critical $9500 level and is now looking to retest an aread of confluence below namely: - 200 day moving average at $8789 - The point of control of the whole move at $8600 - The 50% Fibonacci retracement level - The 20 and 50 week moving average at c.$8500 - The CME gap. In simple terms, i am looking to short a bearish retest of $9550 and am not bullish until we can break the pattern of lower nighs and lower lows, to reclaim $10000. The overall bull trend needs the area of support to hold; it presents an attractive risk-defined long term long entry i plan to close out short cover down here. I covered off this in much more detail in my free newsletter along with on-chain analysis and depth toward my 12 month forecast, which you can sign up to in my bio. Drop a like if you want to support, otherwise, thanks for dropping by. Good luck, filb
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by filbfilb
80
Bitcoin Retracement to ~$8k.Bitcoin continuing to complete corrective phase to backtest $8k. Pattern has repeated twice previously, both on the close, both to close CME gaps and both resulted in continuation into buying interest. See them attached for reference. Both made alot of money. Weekly looks good to hold above the 20WMA which is critical on a macro POV. Im interested in $8k-8.1k. Mainly in a cash position at the moment. Following long idea will be invalid if the weekly closes below the 20 and 50WMA next week. All of this is perfectly reasonable within the 12 month forecast. I expect a run to 9k again in the next couple of weeks. Best, Filb.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by filbfilb
86
BItcoin: Downside Risk Plan. Bitcoin Failed at its attempted adam and eve meme reversal yesterday - was pretty clear in the OBV breakdown and now we have the POC lost and acting as resistance. I am short from yesterday, looking for sub $7k prices before closing. Logic is that although middle of the range there is quite a clear AB=CD objective to around $6800 which is also the 78.6% fib level. If/when this target is reached i will start looking for buying opportunities; emphasis on "looking" as opposed to blindly entering - would like to see some bullish divergences / double bottoms before laying on any USD risk. There is a distinct similarity with the bottom at 3k - i've attached the chart because the setup is identical and it played out as planned last time, but there was a similar scenario at 8k so ill want additional confirmation. There remains a possibility that the very bottom of the range may be tested and if the bounce is too weak to break the diagonal resistance or non existent at all, lover prices should be expected. At this stage i do not favour this scenario but its certainly a possibility. Despite this, the rare OBV div on the daily and the persistently negative funding implies that we aren't all that far away form the bottom IMO. Overall i am bullish pre halving its just a matter of trying to micromanage the mid term optimal entry. Leave a like if you want to support the work links to my other media in the footer best, filbfilb
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by filbfilb
47