Two Large Rallies Before the Bottom Falls Out in 2024If Primary 1 finished today, it hit the forecasted mark from here:
And here:
The original call for the end of Primary wave 1 ending in October was here (August 2 idea #1):
However, I knew the bottom of Primary 1 would be a little later than the initial forecast once Intermediate wave 1 was late in hitting the mark. The initial forecast for the end of Primary wave 1 was based on the theory the complete bear market would end between August 2024 and April 2025. Based on 6 likely end locations (from relational data based on Cycle wave A and B behaviors), I back calculated what each Primary wave would have to do to achieve this movement which were the pink boxes in this idea (August 2 idea #2):
Basically waves 1-5 fulfill a particular amount of the overall wave’s length and movement and I took first and second sigma values to determine the range. From those pink boxes I estimated Primary wave 1’s likely end location if the final market bottom occurred in September 2024. Primary wave 1 should end around October 5, 2023 to hit this final market bottom. From this date, I back calculated what Intermediate wave 1 should do to hit this target as outlined in the first August 2 chart above. Once Intermediate wave 1 finished a week after the first estimate, I figured Primary wave 1 must be at least a week and a day later than planned. Once Primary wave 1 ended, I can then go back to the idea with the pink boxes to make the first assumptions about the final market endpoint in late 2024 or Q1 2025. Based on the end of Primary 1 occurring after the right side (outside) of the first two boxes, the end should occur after September 2024. Based on the movement occurring above the top of the sixth box, the market top should occur above 2733. The furthest end point in April 2025 is less likely with the drop not occurring below 2733 and it is also ruled out. The current forecast for the market bottom is between September 23, 2024 and March 30, 2025 likely in the range of 2878.89-3183.44. I am leaning more toward the date of the 2024 election, possibly the day results are finalized. These values will change and likely narrow as each subsequent wave is completed over the next 12 months until the final target is fairly precise like the current bottom called out today.
With these updated forecasts in mind, it is time to make the first projections for Primary wave 2’s end location. Pre-estimate was early- to mid-December last week. The current projection is between December 12, 2023 and January 2, 2024. Most models keep the end point before the end of year holiday weeks but more data should clean up the date. The models are much stronger with large agreement in a tight window between 4460-4480. The secondary window and more conservative target is a top between 4420-4450. These are determined based on the below methodology. The derivative model does not provide values for waves 1-2 and A-B. The Intermediate wave A and B endpoints are nominally placed and not currently based on calculations (do not expect them to be official/accurate).
The overall path to the bottom looks like:
METHODOLOGY:
I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
