Tesla's Revenue Nearly Doubles in the second quarter of 2021On July 27, Tesla released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021. According to the latest financial statements, in Q2 2021, Tesla achieved a revenue of USD 11.96 billion, up 98% year-on-year and a net profit of USD 1.62 billion, surging 258% year-on-year. Its revenue increase nearly ten times that of the same period last year, which was the first time its net profit exceeded USD 1 billion. Its automotive business contributed USD 10.21 billion to all the segments, with a gross profit margin of 28.4%.
Tesla delivered 201,300 vehicles in the second quarter, including 1,895 Model S/X and 199,400 Model 3/Y. Tesla expects the deliveries amount will grow by more than 50% in 2021.
In terms of factories, the company plans to carry out limited production of Model Y in Texas and Berlin later this year. Model Y produced by Tesla's factories in Texas and Berlin may use 4680 batteries in the future. However, Tesla said that due to limited battery supply and challenges facing the global supply chain, the application might be postponed to 2022.
In addition, the Tesla Shanghai Super factory has become its main automobile export center. Although slightly affected by the supply chain and factory upgrading, the capacity of the Shanghai Super Factory is still strong. Owing to the strong demand in the U.S. market and global cost optimization, Tesla has completed the transformation of the Shanghai Super factory.
On the day of the release of the financial report, Tesla's share price rose 2.21%, and its current share price reaches USD 657.62 per share, with a total market value of USD 633.5 billion. It is worth noting that Musk said that unless there is something very important to report, this is his last time to participate in Tesla's financial report teleconference.
Financials
BOE Released its Performance Forecast: Profits Might be IncreaseBOE expects to achieve a net profit of CNY 12.5 billion to CNY 12.7 billion in the first half of 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 1001% to 1018%.
On July 13, BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (BOE) released its 2021 semi-annual performance forecast. According to the announcement, the basic earnings per share are expected to be about CNY 0.355 to CNY 0.361, 13 times higher than that of CNY 0.026 apiece in the same period of 2020.
The announcement shows that BOE's good performance is attributed to the global semiconductor display industry's prosperity, with stronger demand and rising prices caused by the shortage of raw materials. Meanwhile, the company's mature production lines will maximize production and sales, maintaining a leading position in the LCD mainstream application market, improving profitability and the product mix.
According to BOE's 2020 financial report, the annual revenue was CNY 135.55 bn, with an increase of 16.80% year-on-year; the net profit was CNY 5.04 bn, reporting growth of 162.46%. Furthermore, the company achieved a net operating cash flow of about CNY 39.25 bn, with cash on hand of approximately CNY 73.69 bn. During the same period, BOE's overall display shipments ranked first globally, including five major application fields such as smartphones, tablets, laptops, monitors and TVs.
In addition, based on the forecast data of Sigmaintell, the firm will still rank first in the world in terms of display shipments in the five application areas of smartphones, tablets, laptops, monitors and TVs. And the market share of automotive display panels over 8 inches will also continue to remain the world's first.
Omdia, a technology research firm, predicted that BOE, TCL CSOT and HKC would become the top three global panel production capacities, accounting for 25.3%, 17.2% and 10.3% respectively.
M2 Money StockWe are witnessing a Crisis on par with LTCM, similar to the Russian Bond collapse.
The Reverse Repo pool can be used in Net Effect to raise Rates.
"Net" as it has another insidious component to it - Money Markets will again come under duress as the DX moves below Par at 100 Basis.
Money Market Funds are seeing large inflows as Primary Institutions are telling Corporate Depositors to stop placing Liabilities on their Balance Sheets (Deposits are a Liability) - Interest Rates are relatively low for Money Market Accounts.
We are watching a liquidity crisis begin to unfold. Wells Fargo cutting off personal loans - banks will be in trouble beginning in August.
Loans are how Banks profit.
The moratorium of eviction and mortgage defaults is lifted on July 31st.
Defaults on loans are assured. Wells Fargo calling in all personal loans now in order to buffer the approaching defaults.
When cash in Banks is reduced - the ability for Banks to weather a series of defaults is impaired - the impairment only serves accelerates the liquidity crisis merely weeks away.
CitigroupSeems like XLF has been taking a brief dip. with a stochastic under 50% currently 44% I wanted to find a reasonable company that was near or at a support level on the daily, 4 hour, and 1 hour time frames. Citigroup seems like a good deal to me.
The rsi and the mac d both match on those three aforementioned time frames and I was waiting for some bullish candles to indicate a potential retracement to the upside which is why I used a fibonacci tool to retrace up to 61% of the previous high on the daily time frame. I will only purchase 1 share i case of a future crash and will be patient enough to wait a true discount.
What do you think?
Sector early indicator? Yes, Banks often are.The Banking sector, a sub-sector of the Financial sector - here represented by NASDAQ Bank Index (BANK , in green) - often acts as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks: as early as from 1998, in Feb 2007, steadily declining from Jan 2011, continuing underperformance from July 2018, and in Dec 2019.
Bonds are Ground Zero for Market's Battle with Fed and TreasuryThe bond market is the primary capital-raising marketplace. Market participants issue new debt or buy and sell debt securities in the secondary market. Bonds, notes, and bills are tools for public and private expenditures. Since the US is the world’s leading economy, the market for US government bonds is massive. The long-bond or 30-Year Treasury is a barometer for US interest rates.
The long bond has been trending lower since August 2020- The latest CPI data confirms the trend
Last August, the Fed made a subtle but significant shift
Monetary and fiscal policy remains accommodative
Conflicting signals for the bond market cause a bounce
Jackson hole could bring another shift
While the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, sets short-term interest rates via the Fed Funds rate, buyers and sellers establish rates further out along the yield curve. Following the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 worldwide pandemic, the Fed initiated a quantitative easing or QE program. QE is a tool to stimulate the economy via debt purchases that put a cap on rates further out along the yield curve.
Over the past year, the central bank has purchased $120 billion in government debt securities each month. The bond market has been dropping over the past year, despite the Fed purchases. Imagine where the long bond futures would be if the Fed were not buying each month. The bond market is taking on the Fed as it signals inflationary pressures are rising. The Fed may call inflation “transitory,” but this week, the latest consumer price index data from May was a warning sign that the bond market is correct, and the Fed is wrong.
The long bond has been trending lower since August 2020- The latest CPI data confirms the trend
The US 30-Year Treasury bond futures recently rolled from the June to the September contract.
The weekly chart of the long bond futures highlights the drop from 183-06 during the week of August 3, 2020, to the low of 153-29 in late March, early April 2021. While the nearby contract recovered over April, May, and early June, at the 161 level, it remains a lot closer to the low than last August’s peak level.
Bonds seem to have found a floor at just below the 154 level. Weekly price momentum and relative strength indicators have been trending higher since reaching oversold conditions in late March. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the long-bond futures, moved from 1.106 million contracts when the bonds last August to the 1.207 level at the end of last week. Increasing open interest when the price declines is typically a technical validation of a bearish trend in a futures market. Weekly historical volatility at the 4.37% level as of June 11 was close to the lowest level in years.
While the long bond recovered from the lows, last week’s CPI data was bearish for the debt market. The 5% increase and 3.8% rise in core inflation was the highest level in nearly three decades. The Fed continues to call inflationary pressures “transitory” and has concentrated on its “fell employment mandate.” The trend in the bond market, raw material prices, the stock market, real estate, and most other asset classes points to rising inflation. Employment data could be the transitory outlier as low-wage earners continue to benefit from government stimulus and expanded benefits, which results in higher earnings from staying at home rather than returning to work. The latest CPI data confirms rising inflationary pressures.
Last August, the Fed made a subtle but significant shift
Last August, the US central bank told markets it adjusted its 2% inflation target to an average of 2%. The Fed has been encouraging inflation with low interest rates and quantitative easing. It is unclear what period the Fed is calculating the average rate, which makes a substantial difference. Inflation had been well below the target rate for years before it began to rise in recent months.
Economics is a social science. The models and formulas that the Fed watches and depends on are only as good as the variables, which are the inputs for the decision-making process. Individuals and companies are experiencing dramatic price increases and asset inflation. The Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach as it continues on the current course. The central bank was hoping inflation would rise last August. As the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for, lest it comes true.
Monetary and fiscal policy remains accommodative
The tidal wave of central bank liquidity created by low short-term interest rates is unprecedented. Quantitative easing to the tune of $120 billion per month in debt security purchases is an attempt to keep interest rates further out along the yield curve at low levels to stimulate borrowing and spending and inhibit saving. With the long-bond futures slipping from over 180 to the 161 level at the end of last week, QE may have only softened the inflationary blow over the past months. The Fed has a partner in crime, the US Treasury, and the Washington establishment.
If central bank liquidity is at an all-time high, fiscal stimulus is off the hook. Stimulus in the trillions has only exacerbated rising inflation. The price tag for the monetary and fiscal accommodation since the pandemic began is growing by leaps and bounds as it eats away at money’s purchasing power, the classic definition of inflation.
COVID-19 may be fading into the rearview mirror, but its legacy will remain an inflationary danger for many years to come.
Conflicting signals for the bond market cause a bounce
The Fed will meet this week for its June FOMC meeting. So far, the only thing the central bank has said is that it is “not thinking about thinking about” tapering the QE program or increasing the Fed Funds rate to address rising inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate at 5.8% and core inflation at the highest level in decades are conflicting data for the central bank. Meanwhile, the administration and Congress keep spending with some politicians demanding even more stimulus and programs.
The bond market found a bottom in late March and has been recovering.
The pattern in the September long-bond futures contract illustrates a series of higher lows and higher highs since it traded at 152-16 on March 18, 2021. The latest high came last week at 159-29.
The bond market did not sell off after the latest CPI data, but it did rally on the weak employment numbers.
The bond market may have gotten ahead of itself in March when it fell to the lows. Speculative shorts pushing the long bond futures lower appear to have run out of patience and covered risk positions. However, if the Fed remains on its same accommodative path with help from the government’s tsunami of fiscal stimulus, the rally in bonds is likely to run out of steam sooner rather than later.
Jackson hole could bring another shift
The Fed Governors, economists, and others gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, each August. Over the past years, policy shifts have often created fanfare during the event. We could see the Fed begin to guide that QE tapering is on the horizon later this year or early 2022. Economic conditions and rising asset inflation make a shift towards tightening monetary policy logical as vaccines have created herd immunity to the virus, and conditions have not only improved but are robust.
However, if the central bank decides that it needs to keep the accommodative policy in place because of the unemployment rate, it will only pour more fuel on an already burning inflationary fire.
Expect lots of volatility in the bond market over the coming weeks and months. Increased price variance creates a nightmare for passive investors, but it is a paradise for nimble traders with their fingers on the pulse of moving markets. The bond market could be the Garden of Eden for traders over the second half of 2021 and beyond. The bond market is ground zero for the free market’s battle with the Fed and Treasury. Since August 2020, the bond market has been fighting the Fed and winning.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Things Looking Up for JPM this Summer?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on June 11, 2021 with a closing price of 159.92 on the hourly chart.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 161.6855 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.7815% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.577% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 23.5 trading bars; half occur within 36.5 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 44.5 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
go long HBANTCF bank began merging in to Huntington Bank after receiving shareholder approval, ticker HBAN, in March of 2021 with the intention of being completed within the year. This will put it in the top 10 regional banks and will rank 5th in 70% of deposit markets. Regional banks are set to benefit from rising rates and inflation. The cost synergies and the ability to more heavily compete with the larger regional banks should provide it a runway to longterm growth. In the meantime, while these changes take place you will collect a 3.8119% quarterly dividend and have time to accumulate shares.
"Cost synergies are anticipated to be around $490 million, or 37% of TCF Financial's non-interest expenses. Per Huntington’s expectations, the deal is likely to be 18% accretive to earnings by year-end 2022, including the fully phased-in transaction cost synergies." -yahoo finance
It has been in a period of consolidation/trading sideways but I expect it to began to break to new highs as strengths are combined and weak branches are closed. It has underperformed in comparison to the KRE which is a proxy for the overall regional banking sector. This trend should reverse.
www.prnewswire.com
www.freep.com
Fundamental Friday - BACFundamental Friday (BAC):
Gallacher's Fundamentals:
1. Select historically "Cheap" or "expensive" markets.
- BAC is within uncertainty range level 1.
- Financial sector is cheap, relative to tech. BAC has an 18.19 PE ratio vs 585 PE ratio of TSLA.
- BAC is neither cheap nor expensive relative to rivals in the financial sector (JPM, GS, by RSI).
2. Develop a critical eye for what is "important" fundamental information to a particular market.
- Important fundamental information in the financial sector is the longer-term Treasury yields, which I expect to rise this year. Long inflation.
- Macro trend in Quad 2, excess capital generated will be used to buy back shares.
Get (1) neutral, (2) bullish, or (3) bearish:
- Bullish
Some Warren Buffett Tenets:
Is management rational?
- BAC’s Brian Moynihan expects the bank will increase its dividend and boost its share buybacks once its passes its Fed stress tests. Last month, it announced a $25Bn share buyback plan with its excess cash.
Focus on return on equity, not earnings per share.
- ROE on a rising trend, 7.58% from 6.14% last quarter.
Calculate “owner earnings.”
- Owner Earnings = Net Income + Depreciation, Amortization +/- Other Non-cash charges - Full Capex +/- Changes in Working Capital (Assets – Liabilities or Shareholders Equity)
- 17.1B + 2B – 6.2M + 16.2B = 34.7B/8.7B = $3.99 owner earnings per share.
- Price to owner earnings: Current price = 42.36/3.99 = 10.62, vs. 18.19 PE Ratio (TTM), this is undervalued in the short-mid term.
Look for companies with consistent and high profit margins.
- Profit margin of 0.18 vs 0.1396 historical average (increasing trend).
GLHF
- DPT
Buy $ITUB - NRPicks 28 MarItaú Unibanco Holding S.A. offers a range of financial products and services in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking and Activities with the Corporate Market.
Over the past week, several investors, economists and entrepreneurs in Brazil, including ITUB shareholders, called on the government to urgently accelerate vaccination and policy discussions to cope with the pandemic.
Despite the importance of the pandemic on economic recovery in Brazil, $ITUB is a value company that due to certain metrics could be considered undervalued, taking into account P/S and P/E.
As for the technical it is in an uptrend, like the Brazilian ETF (EWZ), also, its price is at a key level on the weekly MA50.
- P/E 13.93 vs 20.42 MKT
- P/S 1.92 vs 5.09 MKT
- Net income margin 25.50%
- Dividend Yield 1.87%
Technical:
- Uptrend
- Price on WEEKLY MA50
- 1,06B shares traded in the last month
- Average RSI levels
Buy $BBVA - NRPicks 16 AbrBanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, offers retail banking, wholesale banking, asset management and private banking services. Offers current accounts; and demand, savings, night morning, time, deadline and subordinate deposits.
The bank closed in 2020:
- Revenue $17.9B
- Net Income $1.5B
- Cash $7.8B
- Dividend Yield 1.34%
- P/E 9.54
- P/S 1.67
- P/B 0.65
DXY H4 - Neutral BiasDXY H4
Simply waiting for a breakout of this trading range, 90,900 to 91,300 ish. Quite a significant S/R zone, seemingly bottoming out from the previous bearish H4 trend from the start of April until present date.
Hopefully, a break of this range will help indicate direction for these USD*** and ***USD pairs going forward for a few swings next week.
$BAC Before earningsBank of America is again near it's all time highs, close to testing again for a breakout. Earnings this week should confirm movement on the strong uptrend that we have seen since March lows. There is a slight divergence on the RSI indicator. The daily timeframe shows a toppish move on the stoch RSI, as well as MACD turning slightly red on the daily. Should BAC fail to breakout of these levels, we could see it test lower support, or even fill the gap put in a few days ago. Ichimoku is still showing a bullish trend at these levels. Looking for a breakout to confirm my 1.618 wave higher analysis.