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June 21 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: 4-Day Island; Gap; 4-Day Balance. Technical: Mixed messages provided after equity indices broke the short-term, momentum driven uptrend, and corrected on June 11. Overall, the island of balance left behind, after the market sold-off, is still intact and will offer resistance on upward auctions. If the market trades through that area, then sentiment has changed and the initiative activity that drove prices lower is no longer present. Monday displayed a rejection of lower prices after overnight activity started off weak, on a gap down, but quickly corrected into the regular trading session, impulsing higher, through the $3,000 S&P 500 level. Tuesday’s trade blew through most of the resting offers overnight, into a low-volume area, on a record increase in U.S. retail sales. Later on, after a choppy open, the market established good excess on the lower extreme, and pinned near the $3,100 level. Wednesday and Thursday’s action was fairly muted as the market continued digesting the upward correction going into Friday’s simultaneous expiry of options and futures tied to index products. Despite gapping to the high end of the week-long balance overnight, Friday’s trade was volatile and lacked conviction to continue into the resting liquidity at and above the $3,135 area. Putting everything together, the picture points to the potential for a volatile week ahead. With the removal of S&P open interest, gamma (i.e., the sensitivity of options to changes in underlying price) imbalances and hedging activity could heighten volatility. If liquidation continues into the coming week and value moves lower, then the near-term bullish narrative is no longer intact. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Existing Home Sales; National Activity Index; Building Permits; PMIs; New Home Sales; Home Prices; Q1 GDP; Durable Goods; Trade Balance; Trade Inventories; Initial Claims; Continued Claims; Personal Income; Personal Consumption; PCE; UoM Sentiment June Final. Fundamental: Mortgage applications jumped for the 11th week in a row. bit.ly Traffic at supermarkets and merchandise stores near normal. bit.ly Oil prices will average less than $60 to ensure production. reut.rs U.S. and Canadian oil and gas rig count falls to record lows. reut.rs On June 26, Russell will implement a record index reconstitution. bit.ly China stressed as repo rates and yields climb, liquidity thins out. bloom.bg Fed shifts away from bond ETFs to a special, diversified index. bloom.bg ECB’s boost to pandemic bond buying isn’t enough. bloom.bg No indication BOE will renew its asset-purchase program. bloom.bg Companies to ditch revenue focus, hone in on market share growth. bit.ly Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) acquired a mapping technology company. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB Square Inc (NYSE: SQ) acquired a Spanish P2P payments app. bit.ly NYSE:SQ Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) closes stores due to resurgence of COVID-19. reut.rs NASDAQ:AAPL Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) posts stronger sales, profit amid pandemic. on.wsj.com NYSE:KR Unemployment claims decline, but at a slower rate. bit.ly Shopper engagement is higher with mobile ecommerce apps. bit.ly High-yield downgrades drop from March and April readings. bit.ly MIT, Harvard, and others on how capitalism will emerge after COVID-19. bit.ly Startups focused on saving time and money may thrive. bit.ly Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT), Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) partnership a credit positive. bit.ly NYSE:WMT Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) Brazil payments service cuts into bank profits. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB GrubHub Inc (NYSE: GRUB) acquisition a credit negative for U.S. online food-delivery. bit.ly NYSE:GRUB EU solvency rule amendments to improve bank capital ratios and support the economy. bit.ly No-deal Brexit to compound risks for sectors hit by pandemic disruption. bit.ly Americans increased spending while working from home. bit.ly France lifts most of its COVID-19 restrictions. on.ft.com AT&T Inc’s (NYSE: T) sale of Warner Bros. would fetch around $4 billion. cnb.cx NYSE:T USD to weaken as Fed commits to QE infinity. bit.ly ARM-based Macs to expand Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) PC market share. bit.ly NASDAQ:AAPL U.S. natural gas extraction efficiency improves, increasing production rates. bit.ly AMEX:UNG Air maintenance firms brace for a 75% sales decline this year. reut.rs The U.S. weighs a $1 trillion infrastructure plan to spur the economy back to life. bloom.bg Loan default rate approaches 4% on imminent energy bankruptcies. bit.ly Airports resilient despite pandemic fallout. bit.ly AMEX:JETS Sentiment: 24.4% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 47.8% Bearish as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,194,659,186 as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 52.5% as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX Nasdaq 100 (NQ): NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX Russell 2000 (RTY): AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
>BAD DAY FOR FINANCIALS<ElliotWaveFLATabc>3-3-5<CORRECTION<SHORTAs this title suggests. Things could get very bad for American Financial companies. We are directly at the cusp. 2 scenarios play out from here. This is the bearish scenario where we have JUST completed A 3-3-5 FLAT abc Elliot wave correction from v dumps. We should see another leg down equal to the V DUMP , dump from here. This will complete the 3-3-5 Correction on the larger timeframe. The Primary (yellow) ABC. ----- A = V Dump B = Rally to here (flat correction itself, just completed) C = Another drop 1:1 V Dump just beginning. --------- A one to one Fib Based extension of the drop puts us ... at the bottom of the chart there. The C wave completion Down. ---- Pull out your shorting pants chaps. One robot fist at a time.
AMEX:XLFShort
by thatsblatzphemy
2
$NMIH can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea. NMI Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States. The share price rose after the company announced the pricing of its private offering of senior secured notes due 2025 (the “Notes”) and increased the aggregate principal amount of the offering to $400,000,000. The demand for shares of the company still looks higher than the supply. These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days. So I opened a long position from $18,67; stop-loss — $17,52. Information about take-profits will be later. Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision. Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust. You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy. If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas. Thanks for being with me!
NASDAQ:NMIHLong
by KozakHlib
Long MFA Financial here as Weekly MACD is about to crossThis one is too easy...not a ton of downside risk as chart loves support here. I would say a 10%-15% stop loss is fine as you wait for this to break out. Short volume will also be covering a long with some better economic forcasts in the days to come. REITS will be GREAT again. I'm actually surprised the sideways nature on this...should curl up here to at least test our first resistance zone of about $2.50 - if it breaks that then we will see you over $3.60 in the near term.
NYSE:MFALong
by GK-Trades
4
Upwork Finances.Upwork is a company that mainly makes money as their hired consultants make money. So the more employers hire people through the service the more revenue they generate. This could be problematic long term as after they hire a "temporary employee" because thats whats assumed through the program if they decided to hire them long term after their term is over then Upwork gets nothing. AND they just lost future revenue. PLUS Over the past few years they have been in the hole. We have a history of net losses, anticipate increasing our operating expenses in the future, and may not achieve or sustain profitability. Quote from their SEC filing 10-K I will be looking for a SHORT when it seems they have peaked. RED LINES=DAILY support/resistance PURPLE LINES= Weekly support/resistance A lot more pricing information at those higher price points. What could've dropped the price is that they've had an offering so that they can manage extending the life of the company. More offerings means a lower price.
NASDAQ:UPWKShort
by JakeBrandonCastro
Look out below. Financial sector is sending huge warningThe financial sector is sending a huge warning to all skilled technical traders. You think this big rally in the NQ, ES, YM and other is really the bottom of the market? The stock market is based on perceived forward earnings, guidance and performance of individual stocks/companies. The COVID-19 virus event has blown a huge hole in the bottom of our boat. 40+ million US working out of jobs. Income levels dropping. Stocks rallying? WTH? The reality is that risks are quite high that a broader economic collapse will take place over the next 6+ months as the real collateral damage comes into view. TRAN and XLF are showing that the markets are not stable. HUGE risks continue just below the surface. You have been warned.
AMEX:XLFShort
by BradMatheny
1
BARCLAYS 2.0 - STILL STRONGBy popular demand, here are my revised predictions for Barclays over the next month or so. I will mark this chart as long, but READ THIS DESCRIPTION . I am not indicating that you long from the get go. Please read my thesis to see when and how you should enter these positions. Barclays hit the initial target I set almost instantly. From there, it's been consolidating, choosing where to go from that area. To me, it seems as if it'll be down, and then up. Stocks don't tend to go up, then fall slightly, and then boost right back up. Tying in with the COVID-19 pandemic, I don't think it's likely that Barclays has the heart to fight through the terrors as of yet. We can see how well Barclays followed the trendline that I set out. It hit is almost perfectly, but then proceeded to push back upwards from there on.This leaves us in a tricky position. I can only post one thesis on a chart, although I actually have two. Number one is one NOT on the chart. The thesis for this is that Barclays continue their run upwards off of the trendline and touch it one again, but then print a divergence and get out of the hole that they are in. I think this is more unlikely because of the traction needed to get out of the area that they're in. Their chart looks similar to HSBC, in that it's not unlikely that they will fall back into the bottom range. However, if Barclays manage to hold the consolidation period they're in, and print a nice push upwards, then it's safe to say we will hit the first (and potentially second) target with little to no effort. Now for my second thesis. This is the one that's on the chart. As you can see, I have planted two buying zones on the chart. The reasoning for this is due to the difference between CFD and Stock trading. If you trade CFD's, it's more worth it to wait until the 75% zone. If you buy and hold stocks, it's safer to buy into the 25% zone AND the 75% zone should it hit. Use both zones at your own discretion. My prediction is that Barclays will lose the trendline, get trapped underneath it, and then proceed to fall under the line to the buying zones plotted. From here, it will try and reclaim its previous trend by pushing through the resistance; to which it should partially falter and then succeed, I have not included the resistance on here because if you enter in the two zones plotted, it should be rather irrelevant. Hopefully this thesis gives some of you a clearer idea on what to do in this scenario. A recovery in imminent, but not immediate. - 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝘿𝙀𝙇𝙇
LSE:BARCLong
by lndlsnt
3
$JSESLM forming a bearish rising wedge formationSanlam has spent the last couple of weeks consolidating in the form of a bearish rising wedge formation. The move higher off the lows has appeared on lower volume which gives bulls little confidence in this move. Should we manage to see a convincing close below the rising wedge at +- R56.00, this rising wedge could play out with a downside target of R41.50. What is also interesting to note is that the stock has battled to make any progress above the declining 50 day moving average (purple line) which has been respected by the market. Keep a close eye here as the target is quite rewarding should this pattern play out in textbook fashion.
JSE:SLMShort
by MarcoOlevano
ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND - TIme to ZOOMRBS faces its earnings tomorrow, which although may be patchy, should not be cruelly wounding to their overall growth. We have a beautiful sign of a golden cross forming here, as seen highlighted within the blue circle. We have a previous divergence, leading up to us sitting on top of the marked support. It's clear RBS is interested in sitting at a higher level than previously before, and accompanied with the sufficient volume, this could really take off should the circumstances come correct. The SL is marked just below where we wicked down to an hour previous. There is no guarantee that this support will hold, but it seems relatively strong, especially comparing it to the past performances in its existence. It helps a lot that we have pushed through this support rather than fallen to it, as it indicates that this price level is secure and potentially trustworthy. Hopefully RBS can show us some green over the next couple of weeks. This is mapped for more of a long term hold, maybe exiting in mid-May.
RLong
by lndlsnt
1
CLEAR ascending support on JPM - and we are lazy at it right nowAscending support on JPM - some will also identify the pivot highs calling for a triangle pattern. Keep an eye on this support level if the market gets weaker - looking for things that were already lazy when the market was strong... looking for those to then get even weaker when the market gets weak... this is a good way to find intraday setups! Hope this chart perspective helps the community xeenos trading - sending positive energy to all those watching.
NYSE:JPM
by xeenostrading
$GDOT can fall in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea. Green Dot Corporation has a strong downside trend. Due to the huge market volatility and possible crisis, all financial sector falls. This and other conditions can cause a fall in the share price in the next days. So I opened a short position from $15,9; stop-loss — $18,76. Information about take-profits will be later. Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision. Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust. You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy. If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas. Thanks for being with me!
NYSE:GDOTShort
by KozakHlib