SPX 500 Index, Daily Chart Analysis July 25Technical Analysis and Outlook
The S&P500 index closed higher and by doing so, obsoleted the relatively weak Key Res 3016 . The higher-range closure sets the stage for a steady to higher advancement towards the Inner Index Rally 3040 , and ultimately to the Outer Index Rally 3125 (The sixth phase). Currently, there are no significant resistance levels: the downside there is established Mean Sup 2976 , and distance Key Sup marked at 2914 .
Financials
Near 20-year lows, Amneal is still too riskyGeneric drug maker Amneal has been slowly melting down since 2015, falling from $50 per share to today's closing price of $3.44. Amneal makes money, though it missed estimates last quarter by about $0.04 per share.
S&P Capital IQ rates it an undervalued, high quality, and financially healthy company, but I think that overstates the case. In my opinion this company is at real financial risk. Amneal's cash reserve shrank by 3/4 year-over-year, while its accounts receivable grew in an equal amount. That suggests that while Amneal's assets may look good on paper, it may not be very liquid. Amneal may need to do a better job with collections. Furthermore, ongoing litigation over price fixing and the opioid epidemic exposes Amneal to potential damages of $1.2 billion, almost its total current assets.
Amneal has some support at its current share price as it approaches lows from back in 2008 and 2002-2003. It also got an analyst upgrade today from SVB Leerink after the analytics firm determined that of the major generic drug makers, Amneal has the least exposure to that ongoing litigation I mentioned. (Endo Phramaceuticals has the most exposure, and Teva comes in second.) However, given the enormity of the drug makers' exposure, saying Amneal is the least exposed doesn't mean much.
If the litigation plays out in the generic drug makers' favor, Amneal will be a great stock available at bargain basement pricing. Until then, this stock is much too risky. It may continue to fall to its 1998 lows of under $1 per share.
GS Long-Term Uptrend; End of 2019 Price Target: $200Goldman Sachs has been harried by the 1MDB scandal as of late. Look for the company's robust business to shake off the short-term concerns over 2019 and regain the old highs. The first green trend line gives us an idea of what the trend COULD have been for GS. The second green line delivers a more accurate picture of what the trading behavior will resemble in the long-run. Right now: be wary of this stock as it could reach 145-150 levels before the stock regains its momentum. After that, it should be clear skies ahead!
Double Top and profit taking XLF has reached to the final target zone of a bullish setup (posted in my Facebook page)
Now, with a double and a resistance zone, we can see some pullback (or even a strong bearish wave).
This can be a warning signal for stocks...
SPX also struggles to close in new records highs territory - Back below 2960 and generates a potential false break and a potential daily Pinbar (still a couple of hours to the daily close)
Warning Warning Warning - Trump and Powel in need for the rescue
Financials Passing Overhead Resistance in Pre-marketA very bullish sign for the Financial sector when FAS passed the double top overhead resistance at around $74.93 in premarker trading. New resistance is at $78.42 which is good for a further 3.5%. Given the events of Saturday I expect this to continue marching forward.
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis June 21Technical Analysis and Outlook
It seems like we have a currency war. Euro Dollar sank after dovish Super Mario - Draghi comment and surged after dovish Fed chair Powell remarks.
The short-term surge of the Euro Dollar trend sentiment remains semi-bullish and current rebound is producing push into Outer Currency Rally $1.1376 . The relatively weak Mean Res $1.3333 will be a showdown of this fake push towards higher prices, with aged Key Res $1.1410 looming above.
On the downside, there is a Mean Res $1.1193 a distance away, while the significant Key Res $1.1330 is sitting below.
Canada | Recession WatchThe 10 year Canadian yield is now below the 1 year and 3 month yield, which is a good indicator of a potential recession ahead. Rates follow economic growth, so we can interpret yields as a function of the economy. These interest rates also impact the price of money (CAD interest rates). One way to interpret lower interest rates in the Canadian economy is that economic activity is lower and cheap money indicates a discount on loans due to a lack of credit demand. Lack of credit demand could be an issue related to demand itself, access, or credit worthiness. So lower interest rates can quickly impact CAD valuations against other currencies in the FX market.
The trend is pretty clear going back to the early 90s; the 10 year provides a kind of ceiling for yields. There is a kind of megaphone pattern as well, which could indicate that rates will go sharply lower in the coming years, with short term rates bottoming out hard and perhaps even going negative.
CIBC | 40% Short Trade SetupConfirmation: 99.65 (weekly candle)
Invalidation: Local high
Type of Trade: Countercyclical (EMA50 above EMA200)
Target: 56.46
TF: Weekly
Leverage: 2x
Pattern: 1) monthly rising wedge reversal with 2) break of weekly support, and 3) break of major support line.
Monthly view:
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis May 10Technical Analysis and Outlook
The Bitcoin currently is in the steady to higher trend heading towards Inner Coin Rally $6590 and Outer Coin Rally $6760 - there are no resistance levels. On the downside, we have stable Mean Sup founded at $5690 , along with Key Sup at $4916 located significantly lower- primary uptrend rally setup.
XLF, Financials at ResistanceFinancial sector is one of the largest components of S&P 500. On Friday it retested its important resistance and ended up as a doji candle. If it starts the pullback to the mean, which is confluence with 20 EMA then it will drag the index down as well. Watch financials to confirm your ideas about SPY trading.
04/06/2019
Data from ADP is alarming and the Bank of India The Financial Times reported that the United States and China settled most of the issues that prevented the conclusion of an agreement. Myron Brilliant, executive vice president and head of International Affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said: “The deal was agreed on by 90%.” So the end of the trade wars is getting closer. Such news is extremely positively perceived by emerging markets, as well as raw materials markets.
In addition, the medium was remembered by a rather extensive block of macroeconomic statistics. Business activity index in Germany, and the Eurozone were better than expected above 50. In addition, retail sales in the Eurozone were better than forecasts (+ 0.4% m / m with a forecast of +0.3 m / m). So the growth of the euro in some ways can be considered natural. Especially when you consider that it was happening against the background of rather weak data from ADP on employment in the US private sector. Instead of the expected + 175K, was only + 129K. Recall that on Friday we are waiting for official statistics on the US labor market. So on the eve of the NFP, these figures are alarming and the dollar was under pressure yesterday. But more about the data on the NFP, we will talk tomorrow. Today we are going to look for points for selling dollar.
Despite the rather weak statistics from the UK, the PMI in the services sector was much worse than expected below 50 (means that activity is declining), the pound was growing yesterday. The reason is - Brexit and some progress that has been noted in it. It is about Theresa May's negotiation with the Labor Party. Laborites support for a customs union with the EU. This option of Brexit can be attributed to the most lenient, therefore the pound was growing yesterday, despite the weak data. Our position is unchanged - we buy a pound.
In the oil market, the fundamental background generally contributes to short-term purchases: OPEC + restricts supply, but as for demand, news of the progress in negotiations between the United States and China definitely plays into the hands of buyers. We cannot but note that the latest data from the US Department of Energy showed a sharp increase in US oil reserves (more than 7 million barrels), and also recorded the fact of a new record of US oil production - 12.2 million barrels. So there is a risk of a change in sentiment in the oil market to bearish. But for now, the “bulls” are in control. Therefore, our intraday recommendation without changes is. We look for points for buying oil on the intraday basis.
Today may be a day of respite before the statistics on the US labor market. We recommend paying attention to the Indian rupee. If the Bank of India lowers the rate, the USDINR may go up. Considering how much it has decreased over the past six months, the USDINR medium-term purchases may well bring in several hundred points of profit.
We also recall the feasibility of sales of the Russian ruble. The news background for this is favorable. This refers to the information that Senator Chris Van Hollen (Democrat) and Rubio (Republican) submitted to the lower house of Congress a draft of new sanctions against Russia (this is the so-called "bill from hell", which radically restricts Russia's access to external markets for financial resources).
XLF, Financials Signal a Trouble AheadXLF is an ETF that tracks the financial sector - one of the largest sectors in S&P. The chart reflects a strong rejection from a major HVN (high value node) as well as the level where the downside conviction had started back in December 2018.
The price has closed right at the edge of the large value area. Usually, a bounce is expected. If the level gets accepted the price will start climbing up back to the top of the box otherwise we may see filling the gap and retest of the next box down below.
2 Major sectors Financial and Technology keep the S&P at higher prices, one of them has started to show its weakness. If the Technology starts to follow we will see a significant weakness of the index.
$V #Visa breaking long into new all-time highsWatching Visa complete a Cup & Handle formation as it prepares to break out into fresh highs for the stock. Breaking into new highs provides little resistance for price to run, other than fib extensions and pivots. The C&H pattern provides a measured move of $30 to a potential target of $180.
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis March 8Technical Analysis and Outlook
The main downtrend was completed on March 7, and a new Main Down Trend Path is marked at 1.1038 . As the currency has broken out of the tight trading zone (See Euro Chart Analysis March 7) made take-out all designated vital take profit and/or initiating buying - Mean Sup 1.1260 , Key Sup 1.1218 along with completed Inner Currency Dip 1.1238 including Outer Currency Dip 1.1215 (See Euro Chart Analysis March 1).
Currently, we have a rebound in the process - possible Mean Res 1.1270 destination. However, to validate formal completion of intermediate down move we require confirmation signal which is in development - It will be known by the end of the session on Monday, March 11. (For more Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
SPX (S&P 500), Daily Chart Analysis March 2Technical Analysis and Outlook
The SPX index is continuously moving steadily to higher towards our inner Index Rally 2840 , while a weak standing Key Res 2814 is prone to be retested in the next day or so, while next inner Index Rally showed up at 2880.
On the downside, there is a newly created intermediate Mean Sup 2775 , established Mean Sup 2747 and Key Sup 2706 . (For latest Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis Feb 26Technical Analysis and Outlook
Despite the Bitcoin dead-cat-rebound over the weekend the short/term upward move has unfolded by retesting our completed Outer Coin Rally $4161 . The firm Key Res $4105 is in place, while on the downside we have fresh weak Mean Sup founded at $3730 , along with Key Sup's at $3560, $3360 and $3191 respectively. (For more Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis Feb 20Technical Analysis and Outlook
Despite the Bitcoin, weakness, the short/term upward move has materialized by completing Inner Coin Rally $3948 ; however, traders and investors should continue to be cautious with the coin as the cryptocurrency might form a break-out move to attack the Outer Coin Rally $4161 - as of this posting the is no Trade Selector Signal conformation.
The firm Mean Res $4070 and Key Res $4243 remain to be a significant obstacles, while support is found at Mean Sup $3560 , and Mean Sup $3360 are in place. (For more Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).