Financials
XLF surges on House vote repeal Dodd-Frank, but don't buy.Dodd-Frank got closer to being repealed and likely the Senate will follow suit, from what I he been reading. However, the financial sector is facing a wall of delinquencies as the rate continues to climb. That would be a far greater market mover than the repeal of the legislation that would ultimately prevent financials from getting a wall of delinquencies. It is kind of ironic, if you think about it.
I am more interested in selling financials and this may be good starting point to enter a short. The financials are facing dire times ahead. This is a short-term boost that allows a short seller a better vantage to sell.
Neutral trade on KRE (25 delta Strangle)KRE is a regional bank ETF, after a strong impulsive bull run, it looks like KRE is starting a correction. With a IV rank of 34 is at least decent volatility to try a neutral trade. I sold the 50/56 Strangle (25 delta) and collected $1.33 per contract.
With 64% probability of profit at expiration we need the price to stay between $57.34 and $48.67 which is a little over the expected move of 39 days.
Potential Sell Zone towards FOMC24-25$ is a potential Sell Zone that includes:
1) Weekly Structure
2) Bearish Crab
3) The 78.6 Fib level (reversal level)
A close below 23$ can provide the confirmation signal - In such case, XLF target will be 21$
Barclays ready to break 3-month rangeBarclays has been in this range since December. I see prices moving lower before tracking higher to the psychological 250.00 level
XLF. Welcome to hell!I will try to call a multi-year top on the XLF fund. Will short from 25, targeting... Probably, 12.
But my main question is: was the whole movement from 2009 to now a wave 1 or it was a B and we still wil see a Wave C? If that was a B, then we can probably say: welcome to hell, banks! Hope you enjoy your stay here
$ZION Has a huge upside with the slightest De-Regulation They might be in the best position to profit with any compromise to Dodd Frank. Right now systematically important banks are categorized as any banks with over 50 billion dollars AUM. Zion is around 64 Billion which means the narrowly made the cut. Because of this they have hired hundreds of staff positions to deal with compliance and paperwork. One popular measure that seems to have bi partisan support is increasing that threshold from 50 billion. If this is the Case Zion will have a huge cost reduction which will increase its already significant profits.
XLF gonna hit new high XLF sees strong momentum on Tuesday trading and there's support @22.85. Trump's policy will benefit the financial sector anyway and we are expecting to see a pullback+bounce back to previous highest level and break through into a new territory!! Wait for the pullback to build the portfolio.
$GS Base and Breakout Setup (long)The key to trade this kind of setup is the Buy Stop on a breakout. Without breakout or breakout on the wrong side
--> THE ENTRY IS NOT CONFIRMED.
You can choose to buy breakout pullback though, i.e. after the breakout, wait for the pullback to test the breakout point then buy. This is much safer method but sometimes there’s simply no pullback after the breakout. A compromise might be half to buy breakout and half to buy pullback.
RBS potential to reach 99$ price areaFor your long swing account. You will have many opportunities to add more to the trade so still once reaching 1:1-or-more ratio remember to consider taking profits to remove your risk.
short XLF @ 15 min @ trading capability for this 52nd week `16This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Next wkk i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :)
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
Can it be anymore clearer than this?Clear wave pattern seen in the XLF -0.25% ETF .
I'm expecting one final push up from 23.54 right now in the next few weeks with a target of 24.76 (76.4% retracement of 2008 highs).
It would have been pretty good level to accumulate some long term puts up to a year.
The anti-bank sentiment is far from over, and almost certainly not right now. Trump rally at least in the short term is not going to unwind the fact that we're in a deflationary cycle and it will only get worst.
Citigroup showing signs of multi-month improvementMulti-month recovery from USD34.52 February lows gaining traction as prices accelerate higher to pressure critical resistance at the USD60.95 range high of July 2015.
In much the same vein as AIG, Citigroup is slowly recovering ground lost during the 2007-2008 mortgage crisis. investor sentiment and momentum studies are slowly improving, suggesting further gains in the coming months.
Next significant resistance is at the USD75.85 year high of January 2009.
Citigroup is also showing signs of Outperformance relative to the strengthening US Financials Index.
AIG showing signs of multi-month improvementAIG was hit particularly heavily in the 2007-2008 mortgage crisis, and whilst other names, such as JPM have managed to recover, American International Group has been a stark underperfromer.
There are early signs of improvement, however, as prices begin to push above the critical USD64.93 year high of July 2015, with rising studies suggesting further gains in the coming months towards significant resistance at USD80.00. Still higher is the October 2008 high.
It would seem Hedge Funds and Asset Management teams will likely further increase their exposure in AIG, and this could help to maintain, or even catalyse, the implied rally.
SAN Short-Term Short Due To ChannelWe´ve all seen a pretty nice channel directing Santander´s stock, it has just hit the top and I predict it's going to move down to $4.65,to then start it's crawl back to the top.
I predict it's going to hit the entry price anywhere bewteen Januart 6th and January 17th.
GS @ 15 min @ just a little bit - daily (3 GAP`s left behind)Basic horicontal lines (support/resistance) are:
242.42 high of last week
235.54 low of this week
225.73 opening price & low of last week
GS opend this week around last weeks highs and created weekly lows around basic upside, before breaked out slightly today. Noticable, at in my opinion, are the facts, that GS created 3 GAP`s. 3 Upside GAP´s are suggesting me, that many traders are scared not be long also. Usually GAP`s got the property to be closed - in a superior upside trend. And that`s the reason why i adon`t wanna ignore all 3. I am relative surely that the market will let all 3 left behind, while next week at least. But market pressure like yesterday is always possible - even if the fundamentals are suggesting still higher prices. How ever, use the GAP`s still as an entry, guys :) i bought today some CFD`s at 241.50 :agree:
241.62 & 240.27 3rd GAP (before todays outbreak)
238.20 & 237.50 2nd GAP (after fals breakout while monday)
236.72 & 235.54 1st GAP (thursday opening, last week
price targets (based on development last days) could be
243,22 last alltime high & 3rd GAP
246,64 last alltime high & 2nd GAP
248,12 last alltime high & 1st GAP
superordinate prices targets (on higher time frames) are still
249,30 last week alltime high & low of this week
250,70 all time high from october`07
259,11 last weeks high & low difference
JPM for example breakedout for a long minutes, hours, days.
From tis point of view, don`t get panic if the price raises too much at once.
Of course, it`s all relative - not only compared to other bank or financial shares!
But in historical context - even before so called financial crises `07 - the numbers we`re not better as the political (trump, reds, fiscal policy) or even financial market environment (low rates - cycles is slightly starting) :)
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a analysis (for swing traders) - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
KRE, Banking Momentum Diverges From "reality" Slowly scaling into financials. I admit I may be booking myself into the spa for a "face-lift" but the risk reward seems skewed in my favor to take a stab here.
EUFN: European financials are in danger hereI think we can get a retracement in the financial sector, and Europe is in worse shape than the US in general. It wouldn't surprise me to have some negative news pop out, surrounding Italy's referendum, Deutsche Bank, Italian Banks, UK banks, Brexit, etc. Quite a few potential catalysts for volatility, so, if we see this ETF break the linear regression channel support, we will probably see a rapid selloff.
Keep your eyes open, it might be safer to stand aside, and book succesful long trades, or maybe even take a couple strategic shorts.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
WFC: Buy gradually over a weekWFC gave a nice signal to go long here, when retesting the prolongation of the earnings support to the left (dashed line). I'm adding gradually over a week in this zone. I currently hold a 1.5% account position, since I think we might take a while to take off, but we will most likely see a continuation of the Trump induced rally, and as Tim West pointed out in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom, it has a lot of room to catch up to $BAC, so, don't miss it.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
S&P 500 Index @ 1h Chart @ incl. XLF & XLE since Trump ElectionPerformance of the SPX, XLF & XLE - end of last month (November`16)
closed by 2034.5 SPX (round about +8,08% this Year & -1,505% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 18.95 XLF (round about +18,79% this Year & 13,63% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 60.16 XLE (round about +23,72% this Year & -6,752% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
Both sectors had the worst performance the last years, while Obamas presidents time.
Aftermath is all clear, i also didn`t except an outbreak like this. But since this month - i am prefering to see the lows in some shares (even of both sectors) as an buying oppurtunity. Why ??? Let it me so explain ... Under president Trump i can`t imagine that our new president will make policy against both sectors - even forcing laws to shoot their expansion ambitions down. "The Occupy WallStreet Movement was aftermath the all-time high of all anti WallStreet Americans - in the review even maybe the bing gang of make american great again - from the top to the button ... even from wallstreet to every american consumer and tax payer"
How ever,
i am not an political analysis or even expert - but the chart is speaking fo itself.
From this point of views i am prefering the US Yields (Gold as hedge is useless), US Equities & even some sectors (even like Energy & Financials).
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
Short GS again! KEEP buying powder dry to add (scenario below)HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR AGGRESSIVE, WELL-FUNDED TRADERS. Start Shorting today Tues 12/6 and keep shorting if you buy off on scenario below. I feel this is now a rare opportunity - but hold onto your Tums bottle all the same. GS is 231 with 20 mins. to go today, and it's been holding - but in a narrower range than usual. The RSIs (especially the default 14 pt IA AND HAS BEEN OBSCENELY OVERBOUGHT and it has ben my experience that the longer this RSI remains over 80, the harder and choppier the fall. Macd has signaled - as have the oscillators .
I love trading GS and made one short reco last week which worked out well in the first hour of trading. We are setting up for another pullback for the following reason: the stock has gone parabolic (you do not need me to tell you that!) and parabolas have two sides! Why so much gas in Goldman? Aside from Goldman Grads being in just about every federal and world banking arm, they surround the presidents - and Goldman kicks ass in their bond trading department -- WHEN there is bond volatility. Indeed, this year is setting up for that positive aspect for GS, along with huge deals and the obvious deregulation spark that lit up the financials. Goldman stands to have a great year - but we are a tad ahead of ourselves here - for a logical reason, but it is far from a fundamentally or technically sound reason...
But this insane run since the election may have started on fundamentals - but has shifted to Window dressing by the big retail Mutual Funds(at this moment - AND I FINALLY sense the gas drying up). Am I brilliant? Clearly not - but I have noticed a shift in IBD's "New Buys (by the top 1/3rd best Mutual funds )- and out of 99 funds active in GS, over weeks it has gone from mostly buying to now - out of 99 funds - 55 buyers and 45 net sellers. The smart nimble guys got in and took as much as a 50% upside bite ( or chomp) and now are taking profits and getting the hell out.
The stock has garnered so much attention, the remaining "big boys" who cater to the masses are just dressing up positions for the one time of year when their investors may actually look at the positions carefully - and managers don't want to be asked why or how they dont own GS -- God forbid. BUT BUT BUT..
Today, with the market firing to the upside several times - Goldman has stopped participating - where practically every other day , a few points in the S&P translated to points in GS as funds wanted in before losing more upside potential. Today, however, was important in that a few analysts changed their targets (I think one guy revised his from 189 to 245). HSBC came out and initiated with a 250 target. THIS SAYS THAT EVEN THE LATECOMERS TRYING TO SHOW A GOOD RESEARCH CALL ARE NOT SEEING MUCH MORE UPSIDE HERE.
Start building put positions by whatever style you use - but I would suggest leveraging the hell out of 25% of your trading money on this by rolling into the front week in the < $1.00 range. Use the rest for put or call spreads or whatever your style is -- but the spreads have been especially lucrative when you anticipate the premium deflation that results when the next week becomes the front week (a long way of saying do this on Friday close or Monday 1st 30 mins and you will make money 4 out of 5 times in this environment. I would keep a couple of near positions - and i have built positions out as far as 4 weeks.
It is remotely possible - and I say remotely - that Goldman holds up until the first of January. Hell - they could be doing a deal and decide to prop themselves up as much as possible because stock is currency somewhere in some enormous transaction - with Goldman, strange things definitely happen behind the curtain. But everything i see points to some real heart-thumping pullbacks once the pullbacks start - we could see some amazing jolts of easily 10 to 20 points, on multiple occasions, so trade them all individually if possible) on the downside, so try to hang in. Good luck
