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S&P 500 Index @ 1h Chart @ incl. XLF & XLE since Trump ElectionPerformance of the SPX, XLF & XLE - end of last month (November`16) closed by 2034.5 SPX (round about +8,08% this Year & -1,505% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16) closed by 18.95 XLF (round about +18,79% this Year & 13,63% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16) closed by 60.16 XLE (round about +23,72% this Year & -6,752% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16) Both sectors had the worst performance the last years, while Obamas presidents time. Aftermath is all clear, i also didn`t except an outbreak like this. But since this month - i am prefering to see the lows in some shares (even of both sectors) as an buying oppurtunity. Why ??? Let it me so explain ... Under president Trump i can`t imagine that our new president will make policy against both sectors - even forcing laws to shoot their expansion ambitions down. "The Occupy WallStreet Movement was aftermath the all-time high of all anti WallStreet Americans - in the review even maybe the bing gang of make american great again - from the top to the button ... even from wallstreet to every american consumer and tax payer" How ever, i am not an political analysis or even expert - but the chart is speaking fo itself. From this point of views i am prefering the US Yields (Gold as hedge is useless), US Equities & even some sectors (even like Energy & Financials). Take care & analyzed it again - it`s always your decission ... (for a bigger picture zoom the chart) Best regards Aaron
TVC:SPXLong
by Devise2Day
Short GS again! KEEP buying powder dry to add (scenario below)HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR AGGRESSIVE, WELL-FUNDED TRADERS. Start Shorting today Tues 12/6 and keep shorting if you buy off on scenario below. I feel this is now a rare opportunity - but hold onto your Tums bottle all the same. GS is 231 with 20 mins. to go today, and it's been holding - but in a narrower range than usual. The RSIs (especially the default 14 pt IA AND HAS BEEN OBSCENELY OVERBOUGHT and it has ben my experience that the longer this RSI remains over 80, the harder and choppier the fall. Macd has signaled - as have the oscillators . I love trading GS and made one short reco last week which worked out well in the first hour of trading. We are setting up for another pullback for the following reason: the stock has gone parabolic (you do not need me to tell you that!) and parabolas have two sides! Why so much gas in Goldman? Aside from Goldman Grads being in just about every federal and world banking arm, they surround the presidents - and Goldman kicks ass in their bond trading department -- WHEN there is bond volatility. Indeed, this year is setting up for that positive aspect for GS, along with huge deals and the obvious deregulation spark that lit up the financials. Goldman stands to have a great year - but we are a tad ahead of ourselves here - for a logical reason, but it is far from a fundamentally or technically sound reason... But this insane run since the election may have started on fundamentals - but has shifted to Window dressing by the big retail Mutual Funds(at this moment - AND I FINALLY sense the gas drying up). Am I brilliant? Clearly not - but I have noticed a shift in IBD's "New Buys (by the top 1/3rd best Mutual funds )- and out of 99 funds active in GS, over weeks it has gone from mostly buying to now - out of 99 funds - 55 buyers and 45 net sellers. The smart nimble guys got in and took as much as a 50% upside bite ( or chomp) and now are taking profits and getting the hell out. The stock has garnered so much attention, the remaining "big boys" who cater to the masses are just dressing up positions for the one time of year when their investors may actually look at the positions carefully - and managers don't want to be asked why or how they dont own GS -- God forbid. BUT BUT BUT.. Today, with the market firing to the upside several times - Goldman has stopped participating - where practically every other day , a few points in the S&P translated to points in GS as funds wanted in before losing more upside potential. Today, however, was important in that a few analysts changed their targets (I think one guy revised his from 189 to 245). HSBC came out and initiated with a 250 target. THIS SAYS THAT EVEN THE LATECOMERS TRYING TO SHOW A GOOD RESEARCH CALL ARE NOT SEEING MUCH MORE UPSIDE HERE. Start building put positions by whatever style you use - but I would suggest leveraging the hell out of 25% of your trading money on this by rolling into the front week in the < $1.00 range. Use the rest for put or call spreads or whatever your style is -- but the spreads have been especially lucrative when you anticipate the premium deflation that results when the next week becomes the front week (a long way of saying do this on Friday close or Monday 1st 30 mins and you will make money 4 out of 5 times in this environment. I would keep a couple of near positions - and i have built positions out as far as 4 weeks. It is remotely possible - and I say remotely - that Goldman holds up until the first of January. Hell - they could be doing a deal and decide to prop themselves up as much as possible because stock is currency somewhere in some enormous transaction - with Goldman, strange things definitely happen behind the curtain. But everything i see points to some real heart-thumping pullbacks once the pullbacks start - we could see some amazing jolts of easily 10 to 20 points, on multiple occasions, so trade them all individually if possible) on the downside, so try to hang in. Good luck
NYSE:GSShort
by trzcb8
JP Morgan remains strong - outperforming SP500The underlying bullish trend remains intact, as prices post new highs. Momentum studies are already overstretched, however, but downside risks are likely to remain limited as monthly studies remain strong and investors maintain a buy-into-dips strategy. JP Morgan is also outperforming the SP500, and as a proxy for the broader based US Financials Sector, asset managers are likely to maintain an overweight stance in this sector.
NYSE:JPM
by Michael_Macdonald-XATSUK
SAN LONG DUE TO INDICATORS, CHANNEL AND INCREASING RATESSantander´s stock reached a support level early this year, and it was confirmed mid-year, as of now, there's an obvious channel in which the stock is moving, and due to macd, rsi and stochastic, $4.50 would be a good entry point these days. I don't recommend $SAN for a long term investment though, as I'm using daily candles, I recommend it for a short term one, buying when it reaches the support of the channel and selling as it reaches the resistence.
NYSE:SANLong
by AngelMB95
Investment Managers Should Catch Up.Blackstone Group is back towards the bottom of the gentle up-channel started in 2009 (see weekly chart below). Rebounded off a double-bottom on the daily chart in good volume, but not as much as the rest of the financials. Similar story to another, smaller asset manager highlighted recently (please check LM idea). 1. Buy here with target 28.50 and stop 23.50 for a RR of 1.83x 2. Buy here with target 32.00 and stop 22.30 for a RR of 2.28x 3. Buy Jan 16'17 28.00 call at 0.32 and sell same maturity 23.00 put at 0.45
NYSE:BXLong
by HAL9000
Prediction of the S&P500 and NIkkei based on financials and CPIIn the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI (inflation) and Financials: If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below: 1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index. 2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI (inflation)-chart has change 5 times. If we look at the Nikkei225 index we can see a few things: when the inflation in the US rose, the Nikkei225 fell 4 out 5 ( a chance of 90% or mathematical: a chance of 0.900). Using maths we know that ABN AMRO has an statistic correlation of 0.70 < r < 0.90 (70% - 90%) to the Nikkei225. Conclusion: The fInancials are following the NIkkei225, and in turn the Nikkei is following the US CPI (inflation) in a divergence/opposite movement. 3. We can use the inflaton from the US as a staircase for the movement in the S&P500 (on this moment a consolidating market) Sources: Bloomberg Markets, ING Technical Analyses NOTE: I don't make any predictions, making decisions based on my reports is at you'r own risk!
INDEX:NKYEducation
by tmp_cox
Financials will benefit if the reflation theme continuesRelated to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World". This trade relates to a steepening of the US yield curve as rates adjust upwards through either rising inflation or a pickup in US growth (or both) having been driven to a record low in June. BKX Index (candles) BKX / SPX (blue) US10Y (grey) What is interesting to note from a technical perspective is that the BKX index traded within 1% of the 2007 - 2009 61.8% retracement level last July, before bottoming at the 38.2% retracement level in February this year. Since then, yields have continued to fall (grey), but the relative performance of banks versus the S&P 500 (blue) has held firmer and failed to make new lows. Assuming the reflation theme transpires, banks represent a compelling value play and remain an uncrowded US equity play. Now trading below the $70 level, technically the banks are in the lower half of the last 12 month's trading range and provide a decent payoff in the run up to $80 (61.8% level) with a stop-on-close (weekly) below $57 (38.2%). For further insight and discussion please contact me via Tradingview or LinkedIn , on Twitter @James_LVDTA, and visit www.lexvandam.com to become a member of our Trading Club.
NASDAQ:BKXLong
by JamesHelliwell
XLF and Q2 EarningsQ2 Earnings season is starting in Monday, July 11th with major financial institutions reporting. Financials are projected to do slightly better then the previous quarter and may offer good upside potential. From a fundamental standpoint, most financials are undervalued when taking into account future interest rates. If "Market Stabilization" occurs in Q2 or Q3, further revenue and earnings growth is expected from Trading Revenue. Technical Analysis showing resistance points after a break through the strong trend ling.
AMEX:XLFLong
by TraderDanER
2
AUDNZD WAITING ON BREAKOUT 4HOURBreakout out of critical level followed up by a retest of that level and 61.8% fib level. Stuck in a ranging market since the beginning of the month, just awaiting a breakout to the downside confirmed by the careful use of MA's. Looking for a downtrend towards target 1 at 1.03602 (monthly critical). Price action at this level will confirm my further position or to capitalise on profits made. Upon completion of this level the next to the downside would be target 2 at 1.02406.
Short
by ADAMMAC
Relief Rally In Global EquitiesGlobal Equities are experiencing a relief rally after a bizarre turn on events. For some reason, the brazen murder of British M.P Jo Cox turned the increasingly large "leave" vote around, and the "remain" vote regained the led heading into Thursday's Brexit vote. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index jumped off of technical support of 2,814 but still remains in a clear downtrend of 2015's bubble-high of 3,837. Since last year's top, the index has made several lower-lows, and the current trend from the bear market bottom has etched out two clear lower-highs. Given the state of the brief risk aversion seen last week as the "leave" vote took a pronounced lead, global were "due" for a rebound. As alerted earlier last week, the near-term momentum was set for a shift: twitter.com If you look across European equities, the prospects are not turning out like many thought. In regards to the Euro Stoxx 50, price action does not get interesting until a close above the near-term, broken uptrend AND prevailing downtrend is confirmed. The 200-day EMA will be a key pivot point. The index has not been able to trade above this dynamic resistance since last December. Wait for price to trade into resistance near 3,000/025. MacroView does not expect Britain to leave the European Union, but there are far too many risks to get excited about. Check out Bloomberg's Brexit tracker, currently showing a small Brexit lead. For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us. Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts! Follow MacroView CoFounders on TWTR1.45% @Lemieux_26 and @EconomicHedge
FX:EUSTX50
by MacroView_Research
GNW - recovering fortune 500 giant, turnaround play of the yearGNW recovery play, Long at 3.08 as of 6/14/2016, target 6.50 or more by this time next year. GNW was hit by horrible guidance and earnings the previous year and is just starting to recover since the last earnings early May. It has stopped the bleeding in its LTC unit and is poised to make a turnaround. Rate hikes should help GNW as well. 82% of stock float is held by institutions and mutual funds, and multiple firms have been picking up position in the stock the last quarter. The current tradable float is small and will be very volatile on low volume. I'm long Jan 2017- 5 strike calls. Looking for 5 by September
NYSE:GNWLong
by profprof
#Dollar Showing Weakness, Intermediately OverboughtThe U.S. dollar went bid following rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials that a potential rate hike could occur in June, following hotter than expected inflation data. However, after posting on pending technical weakness here, the dollar has retreated slightly over the last few days. Price action as traded neatly within a descending channel on the daily chart, and potential signals of another move downward are pending: The daily RSI has broken through an indicator support level, and the stochastic indicator is signaling a highly overbought condition. If price price action continues to falter, a sell signal below 80 could trigger selling pressure. The DMI is about to form a bearish convergence, which would indicated bearish price action will take over. In order to regain upward momentum, the DXY would have to close above channel resistance near 95.66; 96.55 will be key resistance point in order to challenge 98. If selling pressure does occur, DXY will likely seek out 93.80 (50% fib retracement from current minor uptrend) The long-term macro dollar theme continues to be deflationary. It is important to note, a spike in inflation has been a late cycle occurrence. Every U.S. recession since the mid-1950s has seen an increase in inflation (after previously declining). We must also include that as the global economy continues to slow, global central banks will look to continue monetary easing this will at least support the greenback. Furthermore, as the U.S. economy rolls over, a deflationary spiral is expected to occur. MacroView is still expecting the U.S. economy to reach recession between Q2-3 once final data revisions occur. If you would like to know more about MacroView's products and services, please feel free to message us. As always, comment and post charts. We love to talk markets!
TVC:DXY
by MacroView_Research
1