They Will Protect the Banks, FRC is a LayupFirst Republic bank has been slaughtered due to the banking crisis in the US. FRC is backed by JP Morgan, the strongest bank on earth. Unless the Gov't wants all regional banks to fail and roll it all up in to the big banks, FRC should survive and if it survives, it can easily double from here. Obviously the sentiment on this stock and bank stocks in general are terrible right now, we'll see if that changes. If the stock falls into the single digits from here I will close the position.
Firstrepublic
New Zealand Dollar higher ahead of employment dataNZD/USD is considerably higher on Tuesday, trading at 0.6203, up 0.57%. Earlier, NZD/USD rose as high as 0.6218, its highest level since April 19th.
New Zealand's labour market has remained robust, despite relentless tightening from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has raised rates to 5.25%. We'll get a look at first-quarter employment numbers later today, with the markets expecting solid numbers. The unemployment rate is projected to come in at 3.5%, a touch above the 3.4% rate in Q4 of 2022. Employment change is expected at 0.4%, following a Q4 read of 0.2%.
The RBNZ would like to see the labour market weaken in order to hasten the fall of inflation, which remains its number one priority. The central bank will also release the Financial Stability Report later today, which will provide insights into the Bank's take on inflation and growth. Investors will be looking for hints on rate policy, with the RBNZ meeting next on May 24th. Policy makers would like to pause rates and provide households with a bit of relief, but that will depend on the data, including inflation expectations which will be released next week.
The Fed meets on Wednesday and a 25-basis point hike is widely expected, with a 93% probability according to the CME Group. The banking crisis, which reappeared with First Republic Bank's shares plunging, is off the radar for now after JP Morgan agreed to purchase First Republic's assets. Still, credit conditions have tightened, which is estimated to be equivalent to a Fed hike of 25 or perhaps 50 basis points. That fallout is unlikely to prevent a Fed hike on Wednesday but could well lead the Fed to wind up its current tightening cycle earlier than anticipated.
NZD/USD tested resistance at 0.6209 earlier today. Above, there is resistance at 0.6332
0.6133 and 0.6072 are the next support levels
FIRST REPUBLIC BANK - LONG SETUP We have a beutifull zone of acumulation with a long range.
Yesterday we saw that any good news will pump this bank.
So now , we have a beautiful price to enter with a buy at 13.00 with take profit at 19.00 and stop loss at 11.
Remember, when nobody talks about it, that will be the time to buy.
EUR/USD - euro extends rally, market turmoil easesThe euro has put together a 3-day rally and is up again on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading quietly at 1.0756, up 0.30%.
Let's start with some good news. European stock markets have settled down and are in positive territory. The euro took a bath last Wednesday and plunged 1.47% as Credit Suisse shares tumbled, but the currency has battled back and recovered these losses. The emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS and the joint announcement by six major central banks to boost liquidity have provided some reassurance to the markets that the banking system is not in danger of collapse.
That's not to say that this nasty bank crisis is behind us. Investors are still trying to come to terms with the lightning collapse of three US banks and Credit Suisse, the second-largest bank in Switzerland, all in just 11 days. Another US bank, First Republic, received an emergency injection of $30 billion from some major US banks, but this may not prove to be enough, as depositors are estimated to have removed $89 billion and the bank's shares are in freefall.
In light of the bank crisis, central banks will have to weigh their moves carefully and re-evaluate rate policy. The ECB didn't flinch and delivered a 50-basis point move as promised. Had the ECB decided not to go ahead with the 50-bp hike, it risked losing credibility. As well, the ECB's primary focus remains containing inflation. With eurozone inflation running at an 8.5% clip, the ECB needed another oversize rate hike.
Could the financial crisis turn out to be a blessing in disguise? Perhaps, according to ECB President Lagarde. On Monday, Lagarde told European lawmakers that market turmoil could dampen demand and "might actually do part of the work that would otherwise be done by monetary policy and interest rate hikes". Lagarde reiterated that more rate hikes were needed to curb inflation, but didn't make any commitments as to the pace of rate hikes, which makes sense, given that the current crisis is not over.
EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0778. Next is 1.0890
There is support at 1.0647 and 1.0535
FRC First Republic Bank Price TargetFRC First Republic Bank received uninsured deposits of $30 billion on Mar 16, 2023, from 11 banks of the country: Bank of America Corporation BAC, Citigroup Inc. C, JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, PNC Bank, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Truist, and U.S. Bank.
I know it`s a risky trade, but i believe this recue package puts it in a lot better situation that CS Credit Suisse Group.
My price target for FRC First Republic Bank is at least $30.30 and maybe $52.20.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.