Whilst one of my trading systems (as displayed) doesn't yet display Exit-Long signals, I have been pre-empting some expected volatility which I perceive can arise due to what can be an lengthy infrastructure Bill process along with the Debt Ceiling fiasco. I detailed this in an earlier post. Up to this point I have been happy to ignore exit signals based on...
Substantial fiscal response, no off-risk and no hyper inflation. Watch-out for: 1) debt ceiling wobbles 2) SLR (not a new issue) 3) tax payments for the 2021 tax year previously deferred.
I am expecting a softer Dollar going forward with gains in commodity currencies as US fiscal support makes the Dollar more ubiquitous. Unless we see an off-risk event or crash as indicated by Vix wardation..I am short the dollar.
I see many people say on internet that the market is highly volatile and very hard to predict the trend. In my opinion, institutional investors (even including Fed) have different thoughts about where the economy is heading due to uncertainty. So, I want to guess what they are probably thinking so that it may give us some clues why the market is acting in this...
OJ1 Oranges have been building a higher low since spring of 2019 and completed the higher low in the Feb. 2020 crash. With broad commodities CRB having formed a long-term cycle low in the 1Q2020 and the global economy already heating up and many commodities already breaking out of their multi-year downtrends (Uranium, industrial metals, agriculture), it has...
Technical Analysis We have a breakout on strong intraday volume (200% above 10-day average). RSI @67 - still not overbought. OBV has been supportive. Because we are in a longer down-trend, we will see multiple resistance; which will very helpful to set your limits. Risk reward ratio is great, using $32.3 as stop-limit loss, and $39 as a sell-exit. Be...
Technical 20sma is being supportive, but it is recommended to keep your stops somewhat below the average. A close below $190 would be a bearish warning. The broad market has been taking a downturn over the past week. The Transportation industry has been consolidating, showing relative strength over the rest of the market. Fundamental While the white house...
Here is the EUR chart only - note these setups are to show where if price rejects we will look short - same information below as previous post - incase traders see this instead. We have our take on the EUR USD - a lot of speculators have seen the Euro as the stronger of the currencies against the USD which has been seen as out of favour - but this is all...
What we saw on Dax yesterday was a nice 'fakeout' example of the 12 882 S/R zone and a good example of the reactive activity below the key level and Thursday's fair price. Buyers stepped in to correct the early morning impulsive pressure an as expected, the price headed towards our target and almost hitting 13 119. Important zones Resistance: 13 235, 13...
The Dow Jones saw another massive decline today, down -13% and nearly $3,000 in a single session making this the new record one-day point decline in history for the Dow and smashing the previous record of -$2,000 which was made last week. High volatility has been expected over the past two weeks and we are getting it in extraordinary fashion as traders appear to...
In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURUSD and #USDJPY #EURUSD weak on: - US-EU potential trade conflict (airbus illegal state aid - WTO depended) - ECB's Germans board member resignation Medium-term #Euro led flows will hang on Lagarde's policy. A potential transition to fiscal tools will be euro positive #USDJPY strong on: - Dovish Evans...
Afternoon traders, Something special happened last week: the Fed funds rate rose to 66bps. Why is this important? Historically, /dx depends on not only the direction of US yields, but also the absolute level. A "high yielder" can be defined as a currency whose central bank offers at least the third highest central bank yield in the G10. By this definition, USD...
BOJ - 3trn increase in annual ETF Purchases + $24bn increase in USD funding for banks 1. The BOJ on Friday delivered a shockingly poor package, imo they changed the snallest part of their current QQE programme. 2. What was interesting though was the markets reaction - immediately after the decision $Yen spiked higher then lower to 103 level but from then and...
Another argument for the BOJ outperform case - Post BOJ Buy $Yen @MRKT 111tp: 1. We know BOJ and JPY Govt Abe/ Aso have had many meetings post-brexit and as it follows the JPY Govt have announced today that they will deliver a fiscal stimulus package of 28trn - which was to the very right of the curve (10-30 was talked about). - This in mind, imo it is...
28/29th June BOJ Meeting Expectations by 27 analysts polled by Reuters: 1. 23/27 (85%) expect easing from the BOJ. - The Median Analyst expect a 10bps cut to the headline interest rate to -0.2% and a Yen10TRN Extenstion to the BOJ's monetary base target to Yen90TRN a month (JGB and ETF Purchases). - One analyst expects easing in September, two in October and...
I posted earlier with my 107 USDJPY breakout trade (see attached post) - one of the reasons I said to long USDJPY on the 107 break-out was due to JPY Govt stimulus speculation. In the last few hours we have seen fresh speculation of the JPY stimulus, with JPY20trn now being discussed/ proposed to be on the table - this renewed rhetoric is nothing but positive for...
Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. However, did go out of his way to mention a relatively dovish point "We Have Some Ammunition if We Need it During Next Recession". Nonetheless he...
The Federal Reserve's regulatory point man said work to address the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis won't be complete without better regulation of short-term funding both inside and outside the banking system. St Louis Fed President Jim Bullard may be the Fed's new super dove, but he's no pessimist, he says. Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just...