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Flat

EURUSD – In a final leg of flat correction for bullish swingOver all we are in major bearish cycle for EURUS as per my last chart I published in January 2018 which you can check in the link below. This trend has developed well so far and it is in a corrective phase since August 2018 low which appears to be developing what Elliott Wave theory refers to as flat correction of 3-3-5 formation. Rules for Identifying Flat Correction To correctly identify a flat correction, it needs to meet the following rules: 1. Waves “a” and “b” consist of 3 swings each which can be simple zigzags or double zigzags within them. 2. Wave “b” must retrace wave “a” by at least 90% or more. 3. If the above are met then wave “c” would develop in 5 waves and it reaches the proximity of peak of wave “b”. There variation of flats but this one is the simplest and one which we can work with for now. Therefore the flat correction gives clear advantage in trading the wave “c” such as one about to form in EURUSD as follows: Wave “a” - formed a zigzag from 15th Aug to 24th September. Wave “b” - from 24th September to 26th October (potentially) which retraced wave “a” more than 90% (Futures Dec 2018 contract fractionally took out the low of 14th August). Wave “c” - to commence from 28th or 29th October and likely to complete by Mid - late Nov (approximated using various time symmetries shown on the chart) with target in the proximity of 1.75 – 1.18. We also have declining 200 daily MA around there. Upon completion of wave “c” the entire flat correction is completed and price resumes the prior trend leading into that correction. COT Data: Back in March 2018 the Non Commercials were at historic extreme in their Net long. This declined progressively to the point they briefly flipped to the Net Short around Aug low and this turned back to net short again since 24th September and has been growing to close as at 23rd October at Net short of 30,304. This is supportive of possible bounce in context of this flat correction. Please see the chart with COT data below. Trade Action: Discretionary Entry could be on price moving above the high of 26th October or adjusted accordingly if we have new lower low early in the week. Caution: If we do not see 5 wave bullish swing or price seriously breaks below August low then some other pattern is in progress. Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps the me most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up. comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV
Long
by DanV
5
SPX Bear Trend in Running Flat; Soon to End?Index might be in an expanded irregular flat EW, with descending wedge an indicator of diminishing supply as the bears grind down to the 0.62 Fibo retrace line. In Elliott Wave theory, in a strong bull market the ABC correction 'C' wave can terminate above the bottom of A, and may appear as an expanded flat correction, rather than a deeper C that carries below the A termination, or a so-called 'running flat.' It's really dangerous to short these, it's like trying to pick up dimes in front of a bulldozer. Expect a strong bounce at the apex of the wedge- within a day or two, if no break down. Dow closed at 253 support and Sand P just above the 274 Fibo line. After two weeks of bear control it seems the bulls are setup for a powerful rally. Don't get caught short... of course possibility exists for further break down. IF we do get a break down from this formation, it would be extremely bearish and could herald a bear market. IF we get the bounce the Bulls will roar back. Stay tuned! As always, this is not investment advice, trade at your own risk! Forex link to Expanded Flat Correction Theory: www.dailyfx.com Added ABC EW to this chart (Double-click to view- a bit buggy):
AMEX:SPYLong
by DaddySawbucks
6
Ford finally broke the corrective wave low! Time for the upside?NYSE:F has been in a weekly corrective downtrend for the last 4 years. We finally broke the A wave low. Many analysts consider this a "strong sell". Now will crowd psychology think this price is a bargain and start buying? WIll the funds do the same thing? Time will definitely tell! Personally I will be looking for any chance to go long, as long as there is a valid setup. There is a buy setup brewing on the 15 min chart. Will this be the start to the upside, or do we have some more room to go down? What do you think? Thanks for looking, trade responsibly!
NYSE:FLong
by adambiers
9
So, tomorrow it will be very interesting [BTCUSD]Hi Guys! It is interesting to see the many bullish ideas of the BTCUSD since the recent correction. What we saw in my previous view is only one possible outcome, at the moment the price is trading in channel between upper resistance and lower support level again. What we have on the card? TF: 4H; The MACD: Bullish crossover, and its possible future the centerline crossover. The RSI > 50, the sign of uptrend. EMA: We have the strong resistance 200EMA line @6630 (Remember it's BITFINEX) and the support from 7EMA, 30EMA and 100EMA. Conclusion: If the price finds that support is much stronger than resistance and break through $6700-7000 territory then we will see something interesting in coming weeks. GL Traders.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by LudwigStirner
US 30 Wave 5 Possible PathwayAfter a shallow brief wave 4 now in progress expect higher again for a week or ten days. Wave could carry Dow back to Jan high or perhaps a bit shy. Should get within 2 percent. By early to mid-September we could see Dow reach a new alltime high, although it has lagged Sand P and Nasdaq is a real bubble. Market was forming a smallish wave 4 when the Donald dropped his tweetbomb Thursday, yay for the Donster. Thanks buddy! I shorted puts literally ten minutes before the tweet, ZOMG! Nonetheless, it is a shallow wave 4, as wave 2 was pretty hard and deeper grind. Final wave is a 5th of 5th, so expect more intense bullish greed. Chart may not be scaled as I notice 5th wave projection appears a little tall, as wave 3 is never the shortest. We will see. I drew the Gartley to peak on Standard R2 Pivot, maybe that's too high, who knows?! As I write this post, futures already shaping up to turn bullish, Nas in the green again. In another post I discussed why Dow is lagging- it has to do with the index calculus. Sand P index accounts for shares outstanding and market cap is periodically adjusted. Dow is calculated based on shares outstanding, so as corporate repurchases decrease shares in market, price and earnings are inflated but multiplier is diminshed as #shares is less. 19th century math, go figure! So maybe US 30 will not get to 26616 again, as it has shrunk significantly (almost 6% after buybacks this year). Fibo for the Gartley is ~26268, we will see. As the rally rolls into final phase RUT will reach into 1740+ zone maybe up to 1750+; we saw 1740 this week briefly before the Great Tweet. This is a breakout pattern from the bear flag and it is parabolic in the other indexes; although Grand Dame Dow has lagged. Rut should falter before the other indexes. Nas is a bubble and when it pops will deflate with shocking speed, flight to quality may prop up the Dow briefly. The decline will likely be a full zigzag back to the neighborhood of strong support at 23530. Might not break that far down, depends on sentiment and fear. A flat correction results in the final leg reaching comparable level to the primary wave, which shed 3300 points off Dow in Feb. It will be a roller coaster. As always this is humorous speculative guesswork and in no way constitutes any kind of investment advice- gamble on stocks at your own risk, good luck!
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
6
MU - TA confirming transition to secular growth story?For the past year, Micron executives have been making the case that the memory industry is transitioning from a cyclical industry with booms and busts to a secular growth industry with the massive demand for memory in the cloud, artificial intelligence, self driving cars and IOT ramping and reshaping the compute needs of the future. It is a nice story and one MU would obviously benefit from crafting, but is it true? It seems over the past year that Wall Street has been hot and cold on Micron, which has seen high volatility during this period. This price action tells me not everyone is on board with the secular growth transition thesis offered by Micron management. What I'm seeing in the chart is showing me management's thesis is about to be proved. How can I make such a claim? The answer is Elliot Wave analysis. the MU chart is a textbook example of a flat correction signaling the end of the previous cycle and the continuation of a cycle of higher degree. Simply put, MU will rally strongly higher for an extended period of time. Yes there will be minor corrections along the way, but an entry here could make for an excellent long-term investment of 2 - 5+ years. Now, I direct your attention to the MU Chart and compare it with the "textbook" Elliot Wave flat correction. As you can see, the wave count, direction and magnitude of the subwaves is almost a perfect fit for a flat correction. The question now is what type of flat is MU exiting? So far, it seems like a running flat as the tops were pretty close to each other ($1.15 or 1.8%) and wave v that just finished, is almost the same as the first C wave down ($0.23 or 0.51%). The strong move up from the recent low indicates that wave 1 of the next, 5-wave up move is begining. To confirm this, MU needs to break the downtrend resistance line I have drawn in purple. The danger here, is that if it fails, it could form a lower-low creating a regular flat / expanded flat pattern, invalidating the recent up-move as the start of wave 1. Either way, MU is poised to confirm the next up-trend. It's a matter of getting the entry correct. If it does break the resistance to the up-side, the last 5-wave growth cycle lasted 665 days, which gives a target for the next series of motive, or growth waves. Further, the next move up, will be wave 3 of the next cycle degree, indicating that MU may enjoy mostly steady growth for the next 3.5 to 5+ years as the third though fifth waves complete. To me, this signals the end of the cyclical era of the stock with the severe long-term volatility and a more sustainable growth pattern.
NASDAQ:MULong
by Bullish_Harambe
11
US 30 Bear Flag near breakdown of complex ZigZag ABC PatternFor months I have struggled to make Elliott wave theory fit this Bear Flag rising channel but although 5 wave impulses appear within the channel, it is not itself a motive impulse, but rather, it is a complex, 7 or 9 multi-wave zig-zag flat corrective pattern "A-B-C". It also contains WXY components which we recently observed press index under 25000, as well as countertrend ABCDE reactionary 5 part wave and many other minuette and subminuette patterns, omitted here for clarity. I have read other wave theorists charts and the common approach seems to be trying to impose a 5 wave motive impulse pattern onto this chart, which simply doesn't fit. It won't fit, because the market is not in a primary motive impulse; it is in a large-scale primary flat correction, which is countertrend to the previous bullish trend. The entier channel we've been riding since April is the B wave. It's near termination now; this is a Bear Flag continuation pattern expected to move down again. Once I recognized this, the reactionary corrective wave patterns fit perfectly with no fudging required. Notice the respect for Fibo and channel limits in these waves. The two flashcrashes we had 2 + 15 August have created a new formation in chart: the rising wedge, another ominous pattern to go with a Bearish Gartley (see link) and bearish divergence in the indices and also within this index. The flat, or Zig-Zag correction, is a lateral movement initiated by a powerful, panic-style A wave, which we saw in February, followed by a lengthy, complex, oscillating sine-wave B that carries index nearly to or equal to the prior high. In US 30 we see current price on 8/20 resting on the trendline, and also reaching back on a perfect parallel to a nearly .786 Fibo with 26 Feb reactionary high coming off the primary A wave. All this bodes ill, because: Once the B wave completes at/near the price of origin, a steep, sharp C wave carries the index back down to the low price at bottom of the A wave. So after months of churning you end up right back where you started - twice. This is a vicious and malicious beast of a market. Do not fall into the Bull Trap on 8/21 they will surely try to bull it up once more. NB: Sand P has been within 10 pts of Jan high already. This is very near completion at current prices, maybe one more bullish attempt to breakout higher. Until I saw this and the Gartley I was bullish last week, now I am onboard with The_Unwind, and others preparing for big break. NB: If the bullish mood is strong enough, it is possible to create the expanded flat, in which B wave carries ABOVE the origin price, possibly to new all time high, before breaking down again off the double top. Please read my prior posts to see the Gartley with perfect Fibo ratios, virtually identical to Bitcoin before that broke. As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
1