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FMG

SHORT FMGThanks for viewing Just a simple technical analysis of the share price of FMG assuming continued correction from all time highs. Mostly just based on the Iron ore price having lost 55% from 2021 highs and still being 50% (while FMG is only down only 28%) down presently. Mapped out some support / demand and resistance / supply zones. Thinking something around sub-$12 would be a good short-term target (although I expect a bounce at the $14 level). Also based on 1:1 extension of the deep correction and retrace and a 1.618 extension of what may be wave 1 & 2 of the last 5 waves down to complete the correction. They line up relatively closely, so it seems like a good spot. Price may push above the 200EMA before continuing correction, although near-term upside potentially $19.50. We will see. Fundamental... more and more speculation about the debt crisis unfolding in China in the property and banking sectors. We can never get the full picture. However, that combination of issues could seriously dent imports - especially construction steel. Increasing possibility that anecdotal evidence of a steep drop-off in residential construction in China is accurate. But, we don't have to speculate that far given the weakness in global iron ore prices. While FMG's cost of production is around $15 per ton it will clearly still be profitable, there will be less profit and earnings forecasts due later this month are lower than the previous Q1 and any further weakness in global iron ore prices will probably prompt at least some investors to sell up and continue the downside correction. Protect those funds.
ASX:FMGShort
by flyinkiwi10
2
62 Fe Iron Ore Outlook for Australian Iron Ore62% Fe CFR Iron Ore continues its bullish trajectory, closing in on USD160/tonne. The futures markets show a continued bullish trend. Chinese News China announces a 5.5% economic growth target for 2022, down from 6% for 2021. Premier of the State Council for the PRC, Li Keqiang, stressed the priority of 'economic stability' for 2022. In addition to this, the Premier announced that Covid-19 controls will be adjusted as needed to facilitate economic growth priorities. As the Winter Olympics have now wound down, steel production caps are gradually being eased and should continue over the next coming months. These are all bullish signals for Iron Ore prices. Russian/Ukraine Conflict The Russia/Ukraine war is not expected to cause any significant impacts on iron ore supply on global markets, accounting for less than 40million tonnes of production annually. Australian Local News Weather As Australia is still in the backend of tropical cyclone season, there is a possibility of disruption to normal shiploading activities at Pilbara ports, which could have a short-term negative impact on supply. COVID-19 Western Australia has opened their hard border to other states. This will help with the labour constraints that have plagued many Australian Iron Ore (IO) producers over the last 18 months as there were significant hurdles to obtain skilled/specialist labour to assist with both preventative and corrective maintenance outages across mining sites in the Pilbara. Ideally, over the remaining fiscal year, we should see increased reliability in output from mines and Ports and adherence to output schedules. Long-Term Outlook for Iron Ore Chinese regulators have flagged speculative trading and excessive stockpile hoarding of commodities including IO as the reason for exorbitant prices seen over the last 18 months as opposed to actual demand seen from steel mills. It is rumoured Chinese regulators will look at consolidating the fractured steel production market in China through mergers/acquisitions in a bid to increase bargaining power when it comes to raw material purchasing. Given the 2022 goal of 'economic stability', this does seem like a necessary strategy for China to guarantee fair prices for their major inputs for economic growth. Consolidating the local steel production market to match the high market concentration of Australian IO producers would theoretically allow for better prices for Chinese purchasers. However, given the soured relationship between Australia and China over the last 24 months, it is unlikely the Australian government will take to this kindly, as commodities prices over the last 18 months have delivered record taxes and royalties to Australian governments and essentially kept their economy alive since the COVID-19 pandemic began. In response, in the wildest scenario, we may see Australia back a cartel formation amongst the major IO producers - BHP , ASX:RIO , ASX:FMG - as a way of securing their own economic security.
ASX:BHP
by MAXiot
FMG little hope otherwise $11 range next.With current uncertainly www.commsec.com.au following is a snippet from news: 1. Either way, Aussie investors are indirectly exposed to Evergrande through the Chinese property sector’s insatiable demand for iron ore. The price of the steel-making ingredient - Australia’s most important export - has already halved from record highs of around US$233 a tonne in May, following China’s clampdown on the property sector and pollution. 2. A downdraught in Chinese property prices would further subdue construction and reduce iron ore demand. Of course, a potential Evergrande default would be catastrophic for steel demand and shares of Aussie-listed iron ore producers. with current levle of uncertainlty, it's just like catching falling knife, unless we get trend reversal confirmation. I will be looking for following conditions: next week if it closes above $16, would give us some hope - OR - if it goes below $13.50 then next stop would be $11 range. Please note these are my own notes for future reference, by no means trading advise to anyone. Also, please feel free to comment or share your thoughts.
ASX:FMG
by AsimMirzaTrader
FMG Price Channel Oct-21 Through Dec-23Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG) This chart provides two price levels of established historical support. FMG shares have taken a bruising since late July in tight correlation with the drop in iron ore prices. Falling prices and the Evergrande debacle in China, its biggest importing nation, have been a 1-2 punch on this otherwise healthy and growing Australian mining company. Macro trends and commodities price forecast will be a main driver in the short and medium term. Comfortably in the top 5 iron ore producing companies in the world, Fortescue is the largest landholder in Western Australia. A solid balance sheet and strong bottom-line growth position this stock well for the long term future. Highlighted Metrics (source WSJ 2021-10-07): P/E = 3.14 Debt to EBITDA = 0.26 Quick Ratio = 2.00
ASX:FMGLong
by Bowling_Knight
4
ASX:FMGThe recent drop in iron ore prices has seen the major mining companies being beaten down, the selling has now reached panic proportions and of all the big miners Fortescue has faired the worst. While I am not saying this is a good time to buy, as iron ore prices still have fundamental head winds to contend with and the prices can certainly move much lower before smaller miners are forced out the market and the supply glut begins to dissipate. However expect some consolidation or a small bounce within the highlighted zone before any moves lower are made. This zone will be the first major test for bulls if the can keep prices around the $15.00 mark and a floor develops in the next few months in iron ore prices this could develop into a good buying opportunity. Don't be surprised though if price consolidates before moving lower to one of the highlighted support zones. *Not a recommendation to buy or sell, simply for educational purposes*
ASX:FMG
by MarkE
2
FMG - Road MapFMG had been in a very nice uptrend in 2020, but the recent price action of Lower Highs and Lower Lows suggest that the trend may have weakened and it may find resistance between $24.00 and $25.00 level, and head lower. I think we may see a decent retracement lower ideally between the 50% and 61.8% Fib Retracement, between $14.00 and $15.50. I would be cautious at the current levels and wait for a pullback to enter a buy position. Please note these are my own notes for future reference, by no means trading advise to anyone. Please do your own research before entering into any trade.
ASX:FMGShort
by AsimMirzaTrader
1