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FOMC

TradeCityPro | ATOMUSDT the FOMC Meeting Results👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let's go together on the day that the FOMC meeting and Powell's speech were held a few minutes ago, let's take a look at the results and today's talks and analyze the altcoins on the daily time frame for you. 🌐 Overview Bitcoin Let's go together and take a look at Bitcoin, which did not have much of an impact on the interest rate news tonight and a few minutes ago, but Powell's speeches caused it to record a large but low time frame. As expected, the score and tonight's session also had a result that was predicted in advance and it can be said that it did not affect crypto and others much and its impact on the time frame was low, but it is likely that this Bitcoin trend will continue and let's go for a new move that will be accompanied by an increase in the possible dominance of Bitcoin The most important points of the FOMC press conference with Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve growth: Overall, the economy in 2024 was above 2% thanks to consumer spending , In the middle of last year, housing activity stabilized .The labor market is not a source of inflationary pressures! , In three meetings, we have reduced the interest rate by 100 basis points. Currently, monetary conditions are less restrictive and we are in no hurry to reduce it, if inflation moves towards the 2% target as expected, we will keep the interest rate unchanged for a longer period of time. 📈 Daily Timeframe In the daily time frame, the atom rejected from 10.322 and made a lower ceiling at 7.447. Currently, it is forming a lower ceiling and ceiling, but it has more than its daily box. Also, this move causes us to be in a falling wedge, which is bullish in nature and we usually fall into this pattern from a decline and after its trigger is activated, it sees a trend change forward and in any case it breaks from the floor. This pattern fails To buy again in the spot, you can break the trigger of this pattern at 6.266 and buy, but make sure that this pattern breaks and a higher ceiling and ceiling is recorded and we make our purchase at 7.44, the weekly box ceiling trigger. It is also 10.332 After the break of 5.675, if the market corrects, you can move up to the level of 4.923, but after the break of 3.907, I will remove myself and take my coins out of the stake and cash them out because I saw the possibility of a 30% drop and I will not be with it. 📝 Final Thoughts Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities! This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
2
$XAUTUST Chart Analysis of Price Prediction 2025 see more chartBITFINEX:XAUTUST Chart Analysis of Price Prediction 2025 see more chart... Gold price flat lines above $2,760 level as traders keenly await FOMC decision Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD nears $2,750 as Fed’s decision looms From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the $2,720-2,725 horizontal barrier and positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. A subsequent move above the $2,772-2,773 area will reaffirm the constructive outlook and lift the XAU/USD beyond the $2,786 area, or the highest level since October 2024 touched last Friday, towards the all-time peak, near the $2,790 zone. Some follow-through buying, leading to a strength beyond the $2,800 mark, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of a well-established uptrend witnessed over the past month or so. XAU/USD Current price: $2,753.60 The Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold in today’s monetary policy meeting. The United States will publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 GDP on Thursday. XAU/USD could extend its slide in the near term amid prevalent US Dollar demand. Gold is under modest selling pressure on Wednesday as caution rules ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement. The United States (US) central bank is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged after trimming 25 basis points (bps) and settling it at 4.25%-4.5% in December. Support levels: 2,747.20 2,734.60 2,716.50 Resistance levels: 2,764.85 2,777.30 2,789.95 Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
Long
by SUBROOFFICIAL
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Ok team, a simple one for this FOMC as we're expecting a bit of a curveball which is going to make it difficult to hold trades. For that reason, we have plotted the extreme key levels on the charts, anything intra-day and immediate support and resistance has been removed as it’s simply irrelevant if we see aggressive volume. We have the level below which is also the order region 2730-40, a spike there with rejection can give this the momentum it needs to break upside and attack that 2800 level which is ideally what we want to see if they’re going to attempt it. We’ll be waiting higher however for them to complete the move and confirm a reversal, only then will we want to attempt the short trade back down using the red boxes. Below the order region is the key level 2710-03, a push down there with a confirmed rejection and reversal, we’ll decide on whether to long or not back up using the red boxes level to level. We’ve done well on the KOG Report, we’ve shorted, we’ve longed and we’ve closed nicely on the bias level targets this week. We’re suggesting our traders take it easy, instil some patience and discipline, wait for them to take the price to where they want, then hunt the trade. RED BOXES: Break above 2762 for 2775, 2782, 2790 and 2810 in extension of the move Break below 2740 for 2730, 2720, 2710 and 2698 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
14
EURUSD: First red day into the new weekHello traders and welcome back to my channel, as always don't forget to support my work with a like and comment, and follow me for more updates and markets templates! I always repeat it in every post I share, my analysis are not a forecast and/or prediction regarding where the market can go, I'm not interested in gambling, neither in knowing the direction of any market. My goal in trading is to extract money from it, I wouldn't care much about anything else. What I draw (lines, arrows) are not directional move, but the current setup I'm looking for, in the day, so do not be surprised if I go long on tomorrow :) Thanks for understanding and hope this can give more value to your analysis as well. Let's start! EURUSD may start an interesting process, we can see all the week breaking down potentially going to complete the 2 weeks pump and dump, or in the week itself, this market can setup for a weekly dump and pump, starting from Monday. For a better understanding let's analyse day by day to see the logic behind each possible move during the week. Starting from the last week we can see almost all the week trending higher, the first lower low into the LOD happened on Thursday, which is currently a potential anchor point for a pump and dump into this current bearish scenario! Monday, the opening range of the week pushed a little bit higher, breaking out and quickly dumping back down. Tuesday opening, the market kept going lower, breaking through the LOD (Monday low) going in consolidation till the end of the day, triggering breakout short traders and closing the day in breakout. Today, the market went lower and looks like still dumping with a great momentum. Now.. let's talk about the thesis. 1. Bearish: this market can easily stop the traders long form the last Thursday, considering a great bullish move from that level, eventually reversing during the upcoming days or keep going lower, who know, we may see this market completing 2 week pump and dump scenario, back into the previous weekly low. 2. Bullish: although today I'm not interested in counter trending this market, I don't exclude a potential dump and pump in the current week if the market will start consolidating around the previous Thursday low, not gonna happen today but we can see such a scenario by the end of the week. Remember, today FOMC, I don't think I would like to expose my capital in a such a dangerous volatile market! Entry criteria: As I said, currently I'm not interested in counter trending such a strong down move market, at least not today and not before news release. I can think about a scalp short if the market will retest at least the current high of session, consolidating around that level for 30 to 45min before to see a potential 25+ pip scalp in the session. However, during the upcoming days we can certainly see better opportunities, but I decided to share it, because EURUSD look pretty clean to me! Gianni
by GianniPichichero
10
27/01/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $109,555.48 Last weeks low: $99,643.66 Midpoint: $104,599.57 A new Bitcoin ATH as President Trumps second term officially begins! Just shy of $110K with a much tighter range of $10k from range low to high leaves Bitcoin in a very interesting place going into what has been called the first "pro-crypto" administration. Now the weekly close is an interesting one as there is a clear sell-off that has continued at time of writing bringing the price down below the weekly low. This has been a common theme in recent weeks as either a bearish SFP of the weekly high early in the week resulting in a sell-off for the remaining days. Or the opposite were a sweep of the weekly low early on results in a recover rally for the rest of the week. As of right now the later is in play but what is causing this sell-off this time? The AI issue: The recent headlines have been that the US wants to win the AI war and be the dominant force in what is possibly the most important product of the future. OpenAI, Grok, Meta etc all have AI products and services and the US government hope that by backing these companies the US can be the victors of this race. However, the game has changed with the release of "DeepSeek R1" a chinese AI competitor with some remarkable attributes that has the US stock market very worried as reflected in the pre-market. DeepSeek R1 was reportedly built for $6m, now this is a Chinese company and therefor any numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt but OpenAI has raised $17.9B for ChatGPT and many now see DeepSeek as a superior product in many ways: - Less GPU intensive due to a more efficient and streamlined model, this is mainly why NVIDIA pre-market is down 11% at time of writing, investors are seeing that perhaps US companies have overblown the demand for GPU's as the product they are making is not optimised in comparison. - Considerably cheaper due to this streamlined approach, personally this is a symptom of how America has been operating as a nation since the pandemic, a severe lack of efficiency made up for by throwing insane amounts of capital at the problem with no thought as to where the money comes from (printed via QE & tax payer funding). DeepSeek just proved why Trumps planned approach of getting value for money and increasing efficiency is a winning formula, anything else is unsustainable. - Open source code, we would expect the company called OpenAI that was founded on the basis of transparency and the mission to do good as a non-profit would be the product that has publicly available code, but no that would be DeepSeek... This further compounds just how out of touch the US based AI companies have got, the quest for revenue has taken over as the mission goal, which in the case of AI is very dangerous. To conclude the AI problem, the Chinese AI product is cheaper, more efficient and more transparent that current US based products and that is why indirectly BTC took a tumble. On the data news this week FOMC is on Wednesday, the forecast is for interest rates to remain unchanged however the volatility of FOMC often leads to interesting price action, this could be another reason for the sell-off as de-risking takes place. For this week I am looking at using the chaos to find goo d long entries, I still think that Feb-March looks good until I have reason to think otherwise. Weekly low is a key S/R level that will determine by bias in the short term until then. TL;DR - DeepSeek R1 worrying investors of US AI companies as the Chinese AI product is far cheaper, more efficient and more transparent. US stocks down on pre-market. - FOMC midweek, first of Trump admin, volatility expected. - Weekly low key S/R level for BTC
by ProR35
Huge Earnings and Economic Surprises Ahead!🚨 Weekly Preview: Big Earnings and Economic News 🚨 Get ready for an action-packed week as we dive into major corporate earnings reports and crucial economic updates! 📊💼 🔍 Earnings Highlights: Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla are set to release their quarterly results. Also, goliaths such as Visa, Mastercard, ASML and more! 📈 Economic Indicators to Watch: Inflation rates 📉 GDP Growth 📊 Federal Reserve policy decisions 💵 Stay tuned for in-depth analysis and insights on how these events could shape market trends and investor sentiment. Don't miss out on the key information that could impact your financial decisions! 📅📢
NYSE:NOWLong
by RonnieV29
3
Xauusd | Weekly Prediction ( 19/January/2025 ) Xau usd | Weekly Prediction ( 19/January/2025 ) Hey guys hope you are doing well ! - This analysis is based on pure Educational Purposes - Market closing was at 2702 point and we are expecting that 2698 and strong support level at 2693-92.00 which were clearly shown in our Chart .That point is also our Observing point so we will take decisions on the based of it • Bullish Scenario : if market cant break our Support area which is at 2693-92 our targets would be 2700 - 2710 - 2720 • Bearish Scenario : if market close the candle below that region we are expecting a bearish trend until 2660 we decided to take hold at 2620 or not ! Additionally : Trump oath and Fomc Week be Ready for more updates
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by professionaltradersfx
13/01/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $102,745.89 Last weeks low: $91,200.80 Midpoint: $96,973.35 A shaky week for BTC and the broader crypto market, mostly due to stronger than expected PMI and unemployment numbers decreasing the likelihood of rate cuts or at least a less aggressive rate cut cycle than previously expected due to a stronger economy. This is bad news for risk-on assets as borrowing capital stays expensive, with the next FOMC minutes coming less than 10 days after Trumps inauguration, last weeks bearish PA is a move to price in a no cut interest rate decision IMO. The weekly low is once again ~$91-92K which is a key area of support on the higher timeframes crating a rangebound environment so it should be treated as such, if weekly low is lost and price is accepted below then $85,000 comes into play as next support. This would be a capitulation wick IMO to trap the fearful before a very pro crypto administration begins in the US in a weeks time. At the same time price acceptance above ~$102,000 would be a bullish breakout of this rangebound environment and would signal the move to ATH at $108,000. I do believe we make new highs this quarter, I'm not sure how soon we will do that I think there is caution in the market going into January 20th and so unless there is critical news (maybe CPI on Wednesday) before then that changes this dynamic, a choppy week is expected. This week I'm cautiously optimistic about getting some good altcoin entries at key levels in strong fundamental plays. If BTC does hold above weekly low for the week I can see some very good opportunities presenting themselves.
by ProR35
3
EUR/USD Bearish - FOMC Release!EUR/USD trades near 1.0320 after dipping to a low of 1.0275, with recent price action reflecting a prevailing bearish sentiment driven by employment data, a cautious Federal Reserve, and concerns over potential tariff measures by President-elect Donald Trump. Technical indicators on the daily chart show accelerated declines in negative territory, suggesting the likelihood of further downside movement. In the short term, the bearish outlook remains intact as EUR/USD continues trading below all its key moving averages. The 20-period SMA has lost bullish momentum, positioning below longer-term SMAs and confirming persistent selling pressure. Meanwhile, technical indicators maintain a negative slope, signaling further potential losses. The pair experienced a sharp drop ahead of key US economic data amid reports that Trump might declare a national economic emergency to implement a broad tariff program. Despite holding near session lows, EUR/USD showed little reaction to the ADP Employment Report, which revealed that the US private sector added 122K jobs in December, below expectations of 140K. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3 came in at 201K, better than the expected 218K but lower than the previous 211K, with no significant impact on the pair’s price. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.25-4.5%. The decision was made in response to economic data showing solid expansion in economic activity, a labor market displaying slight easing signals, and inflation still above the 2% target. Although some Committee members considered keeping the rate unchanged as a valid option, the majority agreed that further easing was necessary to support the economy and continue reducing inflation toward the established target. From an economic standpoint, real GDP continued to grow at a sustained pace in the fourth quarter of 2024. Inflation, as measured by the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index, slowed compared to the levels recorded in the previous year, though it remained elevated. Employment data indicated an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, with a slight decline in labor force participation. International indicators pointed to a slowdown in economic growth across several advanced economies and declining inflation, mainly due to lower energy prices. From a financial market perspective, the Committee observed a degree of stability in money markets and short-term funding conditions, despite high political and economic uncertainty. Long-term Treasury yields remained stable, while the dollar appreciated against major foreign currencies, reflecting expectations of diverging monetary policies between the United States and other advanced economies. The Committee also discussed the future path of monetary policy, indicating that if data continued to show declining inflation and an economy near full employment, it might be appropriate to further slow the pace of monetary policy interventions. However, members emphasized the need to maintain a cautious approach, considering both upside and downside risks to inflation and economic activity. Key risks highlighted included potential changes in trade and immigration policies, as well as possible geopolitical tensions that could impact global supply chains. Finally, it was decided to proceed with the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), maintaining a monthly cap on reinvestment of principal payments.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 01.08.2025🔮 📅 Wed Jan 8 ⏰ 8:15am 🧑‍🌾 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (prev: 146K) ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Unemployment Claims: 214K (prev: 211K) 🎙️ FOMC Member Waller Speaks ⏰ 10:30am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.8M (prev: -1.2M) ⏰ 2:00pm 📜 FOMC Meeting Minutes 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: Slight rally higher and then chop out. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: A little more upside and then faced by some old-fashioned bearishness. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXShort
by PogChan
2025 Outlook : DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, has shown notable strength in the last quarter of 2024. This trend is influenced by several key factors: 1) Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Concerns The Federal Reserve's renewed cautious approach to interest rate cuts has been pivotal in supporting the dollar's value. Concerns about inflation, potentially exacerbated by anticipated fiscal policies under President Donald Trump's administration, further contribute to this cautious monetary approach. The Fed's reluctance to reduce rates aggressively may continue to bolster the DXY. 2) Economic Performance and Trade Policies The U.S. economy's robust performance, coupled with expectations of new tariffs and tax reforms under the Trump administration, is anticipated to sustain the dollar's strength. However, these policies may lead to increased inflationary pressures, influencing the Fed's monetary decisions and, consequently, the DXY's trajectory. 3) Global Economic Comparisons Comparatively weaker economic growth in regions like Europe and Japan, where central banks maintain dovish policies, enhances the dollar's appeal. This divergence in economic performance and monetary policy stances contributes to the DXY's bullish outlook. Projections for the DXY in 2025 may vary. A rise to around the 115 level (2022 high), driven by the factors mentioned above, seems very likely. Additionally, based on the Fibonacci Extension, the DXY could possibly reach a high of 124.50 in the long-term. However, fluctuations are anticipated at those historic high levels, with some significant declines. While the current outlook for the DXY appears bullish, it's essential to consider potential risks, including: - Trade Policies: The implementation of new tariffs could introduce uncertainties affecting the dollar's value. - Global Economic Conditions: Improvements in other economies or shifts in their monetary policies could influence the DXY's trajectory. - Domestic Economic Indicators: Factors such as the U.S. budget deficit and overall economic health will play significant roles in shaping the dollar's strength.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
4
Decoding the BTC-ES Correlation During FOMC Meetings1. Introduction The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are pivotal events that significantly impact global financial markets. Traders across asset classes closely monitor these meetings for insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, interest rates, and economic outlook. In this article, we delve into the correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) during FOMC meetings. Focusing on the window from one day prior to one day after each meeting, our findings reveal that BTC and ES exhibit a positive correlation 63% of the time. This relationship offers valuable insights for traders navigating these volatile periods. 2. The Significance of Correlations in Market Analysis Correlation is a vital tool in market analysis, representing the relationship between two assets. A positive correlation indicates that two assets move in the same direction, while a negative correlation implies they move in opposite directions. BTC and ES are particularly intriguing to study due to their distinct market segments—cryptocurrency and traditional equities. Observing how these two assets interact during FOMC meetings provides a window into macroeconomic forces that affect both markets. The key finding: BTC and ES are positively correlated 63% of the time around FOMC meetings. This suggests that, despite their differences, both markets often react similarly to macroeconomic developments during these critical periods. 3. Methodology and Data Overview To analyze the BTC-ES correlation, we focused on a specific timeframe: one day before to one day after each FOMC meeting. Daily closing prices for both assets were used to calculate correlations, providing a clear view of their relationship during these events. The analysis includes data from multiple FOMC meetings spanning several years. The accompanying charts—such as the correlation heatmap, table of BTC-ES correlations, and line chart—help visualize these findings, highlighting the periods of positive and negative correlation. Contract Specifications: o E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES): Contract Size: $50 x S&P 500 Index. Minimum Tick: 0.25 points, equivalent to $12.50. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $15,500 (subject to change). o Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Contract Size: 5 Bitcoin. Minimum Tick: $5 per Bitcoin, equivalent to $25 per tick. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $112,000 (subject to change). These specifications highlight the differences in notional value and margin requirements, underscoring the distinct characteristics of each contract. 4. Findings: BTC and ES Correlations During FOMC Meetings The analysis reveals several noteworthy trends: Positive Correlations (63% of the time): During these periods, BTC and ES tend to move in the same direction, reflecting shared sensitivity to macroeconomic themes such as interest rate adjustments or economic projections. Negative Correlations: These occur sporadically, suggesting that, in certain scenarios, BTC and ES respond differently to FOMC announcements. 5. Interpretation: Why Do BTC and ES Correlate? The observed correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings can be attributed to several factors: Macro Sensitivity: Both BTC and ES are heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate decisions, inflation expectations, and liquidity changes. The FOMC meetings, being central to these narratives, often create synchronized market reactions. Institutional Adoption: The increasing participation of institutional investors in Bitcoin trading aligns its performance more closely with traditional risk assets like equities. This is evident during FOMC events, where institutional sentiment towards risk assets tends to align. Market Liquidity: FOMC meetings often drive liquidity shifts across asset classes. This can lead to aligned movement in BTC and ES as traders adjust their portfolios in response to policy announcements. This correlation provides traders with actionable insights into how these assets might react during future FOMC windows. 6. Forward-Looking Implications Understanding the historical correlation between BTC and ES during FOMC meetings offers a strategic edge for traders: Hedging Opportunities: Traders can use the BTC-ES relationship to construct hedging strategies, such as using one asset to offset potential adverse moves in the other. Volatility Exploitation: Positive correlation periods may signal opportunities for trend-following strategies, while negative correlation phases could favor pairs trading strategies. Risk-On/Risk-Off Cues: The alignment or divergence of BTC and ES can act as a barometer for market-wide sentiment, aiding decision-making in other correlated assets. Future FOMC events could present similar dynamics, and traders can leverage this data to refine their approach. 7. Risk Management Considerations While correlations provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed to persist. Effective risk management is crucial, particularly during volatile periods like FOMC meetings: Stop-Loss Orders: Ensure every trade is equipped with a stop-loss to cap potential losses. Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements for BTC and ES. Diversification: Avoid over-concentration in highly correlated assets to reduce portfolio risk. Monitoring Correlations: Regularly assess whether the BTC-ES correlation holds true during future events, as changing market conditions could alter these relationships. A disciplined approach to risk management enhances the probability of navigating FOMC volatility successfully. 8. Conclusion The correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings highlights the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. With 63% of these events showing positive correlation, traders can glean actionable insights into how these assets react to macroeconomic shifts. While the relationship between BTC and ES may fluctuate, understanding its drivers and implications equips traders with tools to navigate market volatility effectively. By combining historical analysis with proactive risk management, traders can make informed decisions during future FOMC windows. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
23/12/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $108,403.98 Last weeks low: $92,261.97 Midpoint: $100,332.98 Last week we saw a swing fail pattern (SFP) of the week previous' high. Ever since then it's been a steady sell off throughout the week, mostly thanks to JPows FOMC statements despite a 25bps cut as forecast. BTC is now battling the 4H 200 EMA for the first time since the US election, a much needed pullback or the start of a further sell-off? Going into the holidays we should expect a lower volume as whales take some time off, retail will remain as crypto is shilled to family members over Christmas dinner so the market will continue to be interesting. The 4H 200 EMA is a key battleground, I would have hoped to see a better reaction off the moving average initially but maybe this is bad timing due to the holidays and lower volume, or the reluctance to open new trades while markets are shut etc. This week is obviously quiet in terms of data releases, there are various token unlocks ENA, IMX, FET and burns for some key altcoins such as ISP & BONK. I think the general consensus is that normal service will resume in January once everything opens back up. So for this week it's probably better to set alerts for key areas you want to get involved in, planning for when volume returns to the markets and when Trump takes office too. Merry Christmas to all and good luck!
by ProR35
THIS IS A FAKE OUT IMO! BUY THE DIPNASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM THIS IS A FAKE OUT! BUY THE DIP 👇 -Strong Economic Fundamentals -Hawkish FED spreading FUD -Same Government shutdown scares every year -2T+ in options (mostly call) expiring today -Gains being pressured to be sold for 24 taxes -Scare meme coin & gambler bro's out the markets -Incoming party is for business & the stock market -VIX spiked faster than Japanese trade crisis -Inflation still coming down -AI is still strong and a catalyst -Company earnings are still hefty -Global markets are curling up not down All of these reasons explain my point of this being a FAKE OUT. I will be buying this DIP because I see nothing CONCRETE! All I see is that the market maker and FED Chair Powell teamed up to be the GRINCH & SCROOGE this Holiday season. Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
6
THE KOG REPORT - FOMC THE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. For this FOMC we have the following key levels which need to be monitored and can be used for potential spikes. 2630-25 support, which is too close to target from here could give us that push upside into the higher levels of 2650-55 and above that 2660-65. It’s that higher region we will want to be watching closely for a potential RIP and opportunity to then short back down as shown on the chart. Immediate levels are no good to us here if there is exaggerated volume in the markets on the release, or the press conference 30mins after. On the flip, if we continue the move downside breaking through the 2630 level we will be looking lower, 2610 as the point of interest but the extension of the move into the 2590-95 region is where we will want to be to waiting for the RIP and potential opportunities to then long back up. Simple one this time, if we don’t get the levels, we want we’ll stay out of it and come back tomorrow to look for a decent set up. Our bias target at 2667 still remains so please play caution. RED BOXES: Break above 2640 for 2650, 2660 and above that 2668 Break below 2625 for 2610, 2596 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
Nasdaq 100 Index Plummets After Fed DecisionNasdaq 100 Index Plummets After Fed Decision On 17th December, analysing the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), we: → Drew a blue upward channel relevant for 2024; → Noted that the price was near the upper boundary of the channel, while the RSI indicator had entered the overbought zone; → Suggested that bulls might face difficulties in pushing the price to a new all-time high. Yesterday, the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.25%. Although it was anticipated, the market reaction was sharply negative. The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) dropped by approximately 4%. The steep market reaction was driven by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments during the press conference, where he stated that the FOMC plans to cut rates only twice in 2025, contrary to market expectations of four cuts. Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) chart shows that: → The price remains in the upper half of the channel, supported by the 21,230 level, which previously acted as resistance (as indicated by arrows). → We can assume that the area around the median of the blue channel (marked by orange lines) could act as a barrier to further downward momentum, as medians often serve as equilibrium zones where supply and demand balance out. What’s next? According to analysts at Zacks, record highs for the tech stock index may not be a topic of discussion in the near future. There is a possibility that a local descending channel could form, potentially driving the price into the lower half of the broader upward channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
2
BTC DECEMBER FOMC Going into FOMC the consensus is we'll see a 25bps cut from the FED (95% chance), this would take interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5%. Because the expectation of a cut is so certain, we can assume that the markets have priced this in so baring any craziness in the form of a different result we should see market sentiment remain the same, bullish. A FED pause,(although unlikely according to data) would be very bearish in the the short term in terms of volatility. I would expect to see price revisit the $98-99K mark where the 4H 200EMA would roughly be. In a bullmarket the 4H 200EMA can be used as a great support level often bouncing off of it. For a 25bps cut which is the expected outcome, we have two paths IMO. The bullish path is consolidation under the ATH then a break above, retest and off we go towards $110,000. The bearish path is a loss of this key S/R level after a consolidation above support and break under with a confirmed retest of new resistance. I know it's typical "could go up, could go down", however it's the context that matters here. Alts have taken a back seat for the last week or so, BTC.D at a key level and a rejection off this level would mean alts can play catch-up while as BTC consolidates. We very rarely see BTC drop and altcoins pump so this is the most likely outcome to me baring no upsets in FOMC.
by ProR35