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FOMC

THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. A you can see traders the pre-event price action started yesterday with the hourly now playing between the MA’s and waiting for FOMC for a potential breakout. As usual, we have highlighted the key levels and added the red boxes for all of you to help navigate the movement should this not be priced in. Also remember, there is a press conference after the release, this is usually the time the market will react to anything Powell says about future plans for the economy. Now, looking at the 4H, we have support at the 3370-65 level and below that 3355. If these are attacked and give a RIP, opportunity for the long trade may be available into the 3395 red box which price will need to break to go higher. If we can break above this red box, we can then look to attempt higher price with the levels 3430, 3445 and above that 3455-60 on the horizon. It’s that red box sitting higher up around the 3470-75 region which needs to be watched if we do get up there as an opportunity to attempt the reverse trade may present itself from there depending on the volume. So in summary, we have 3 key levels in play, ideally a move upside and rejection from the 3400-6 level giving a further dip would suit buyers to get better pricing. KOG’s RED BOX TARGETS: BREAK ABOVE 3395 for 3404, 3406, 3410, 3420, 3430, 3435 and 3459 in extension of the move BREAK BELOW 3380 FOR 3375, 3364, 3351, 3342, 3333 AND 3327 IN EXTENSION OF THE MOVE LEARN AND GENERATE YOUR OWN SIGNALS. You don't need any of us to guide you. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
22
June 19 XAUUSD Setup — FOMC Aftershock or Bull Trap? Hey traders 👋 After yesterday’s FOMC fireworks and a weak reaction to initial retail sales data, gold broke structure into 3363 and is now floating below key resistance. Price is compressing under the previous H1 lower high, and liquidity continues to build on both sides — perfect conditions for engineered spikes. Let’s break it down clearly. 🌍 Macro & Sentiment Yesterday’s FOMC left rates unchanged, but Fed tone leaned hawkish. Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims disappointed — slight downside pressure on the dollar. Geopolitical front remains tense: no ceasefire in Gaza, Iran-Israel rhetoric escalates, and Russia-Ukraine conflict is ongoing. Liquidity is king — and gold is being boxed for the next big move. 📉 Bias & Structure Daily: Compression after FOMC, lower high remains in control. H4: Bearish break below 3380, EMA21 hovering above price. H1: Trendline structure broken, EMA5/21 forming bearish cross, RSI below 50. Fibo: H1 drawn from 3452 to 3363 — key golden zone at 3405–3415. 🎯 Bias: Tactical Bearish under 3415 — looking for short-term bounces or premium traps to sell. 🧠 Sniper Zones 🔻 Sell Zones 1️⃣ 3405 – 3415 → Key golden zone + EMA21 + FVG → Monitor M15/M5 rejection for continuation sells 2️⃣ 3435 – 3445 → Premium OB trap zone → If price spikes irrationally, this becomes the extreme reversal area 🔺 Buy Zones 1️⃣ 3365 – 3380 → Golden buy zone — real fib confluence → Already tapped today, but any clean retest may offer reactive bounce trades 2️⃣ 3335 – 3345 → Extreme flush zone — only valid if deep dump occurs → Watch for exhaustion and M15 reversal confirmation 🔻 Emergency Buy Zone: 3305 – 3292 🧠 Why this zone? ✅ H4 untested Order Block + FVG (June 11 candle). ✅ 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (H1 swing from 3452 → 3363). ✅ RSI likely to print oversold. ✅ Deep discount structure — potential final inducement for reversal. 🔔 Important: This is a backup zone, not for blind entries. It only becomes active if 3335 breaks with conviction (full candle body close + volume). Look for M15/M5 confirmation (divergence + price action signal) before engaging. 🔄 Flip Zone 3390 – 3398 → Volume zone from FOMC + OB test → If reclaimed cleanly, may flip intraday bias short-term 📌 Battle Notes Gold tapped 3363 today, reacting mildly. If price retraces toward 3405–3415, I’ll watch for shorts — but no early entries. Below 3365, watch for another bounce or setup around 3345. Flip zone remains indecisive until confirmed with volume. 🧭 Plan Recap → Bearish under 3415 → Pullback into 3405–3415 = short setup → Retest 3365–3380 = bounce watch → Flush into 3335 = reversal zone → 3435+ = irrational spike trap 🧠 Stay sniper. Wait for price to come to your zones — and execute only on confirmed reactions. — 🚀 If this helped bring clarity, tap that 🚀, leave your bias in the comments, and hit FOLLOW for real structure-based trading. 🟨 Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles. — GoldFxMinds 🧠✨
TShort
by GoldFxMinds
1
TAO 4H - Downtrend bottom? Altcoins have certainly taken a backseat to BTC this cycle with Bitcoin dominance holding around 65%. Despite this, there are still some good setups in altcoins presenting themselves each day, one of which is TAO on the 4H. To me it looks to be in a clear downtrend respecting the upper and lower limits while reacting off of support levels on the way down. As it stands price has reached a key S/R level that has proven to be support in the past and is in conjunction with the lower end of the trend channel. With FOMC only hours away and TAO being at such a critical level this would be an interesting place to do business. A good reaction off the level would kickstart a move towards the trends upper limits. A loss of this level and it's very possible what has been support can turn into resistance. To me the R:R here is good for a long position, the threat to the trade is bearish reaction to FOMC, escalation geo-politically which effects risk-on assets and therefor overalls TA.
by ProR35
2
HTF Consolidation: Key Alerts, Vital Supports, FOMC & Geopolitic__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Strong bullish signal across sector indicators (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator), especially on daily and 12H. Momentum remains robust within consolidation. Support/Resistance : Key zone at 104429–102600 (short- and long-term pivots); major resistance at 106000–109950. Volume : Normal to high, with peaks at major supports on 1H/2H (potential sign of absorption/defensive buying). Behavior across timeframes : ISPD neutral on most TFs, only 2H gives a buy signal (possible tactical bounce). All LTFs (≤1H) are down, HTFs (≥1D) are up → corrective structure, awaiting catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias : Underlying bullish, but market consolidates on key technical zones. Opportunities : Swing buy at 104429/102600, tight stop below 100k, take profit 109950+. Risk zones : Clear break below 100350/100000 invalidates the setup (risk-off or tactical short). Macro catalysts : FOMC, Iran–Israel tensions, economic calendar (monitor Jobless Claims, Crude, Fed statement). Action plan : Capital preservation before FOMC. Tactical entries only on key support; tight stops, prudent sizing. No breakout chasing without macro/fundamental validation. Hedge/volatility play via options possible (IV low, caution for post-event spike). __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D/12H/6H : Supports: 104429, 102626, 100353. Resistances: 106000–109952. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = Strong Buy. No extreme volume, ISPD neutral; mature range. HTF consolidation, bullish underlying momentum. 4H/2H : Key zone at 104429–102600 (technical defense); 2H is the first true behavioral buy signal. Very high volume at support, favoring a "spike bounce" scenario. “Up” confluence on Risk On / Risk Off Indicator, volume, and ISPD for short-term bounce. MTFTI: 2H is one of the “Up” TFs; LTFs remain Down. 1H/30min/15min : Structurally bearish, elevated volume (absorption/protection) on 1H. No behavioral excesses. Intraday weakness but supports tested and defended. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro / Fundamental analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ Market in wait-and-see mode : FOMC upcoming, no hike expected but high impact from tone/forward guidance (increased volatility risk). Geopolitics : Iran–Israel escalation, risk-off climate, nervous risk assets. On-chain : Supports tested (STH ~97.6k). Persistent LTH accumulation. Low option IV → underpriced volatility risk. Risk/Reward swing : 2:1/3:1 buying 104429–102600, stop < 100k, take profit 109950+. __________________________________________________________________________________ Final synthesis: Bias, Opportunities, Risks __________________________________________________________________________________ Directional bias : Bullish on HTF, neutral/undecided on short-term. Wait-and-see until strong catalyst confirmed (FOMC, geopolitical de-escalation). Opportunities : Tactical buy on supports, profit-taking on resistance or confirmed breakout. Risks : Invalidation below 100k; sudden spike in FOMC/Israel–Iran escalation = risk-off or selloff. Recommended action : Protect capital before FOMC. Swing tactical entry only on confirmed support. No breakout chasing without macro validation. Leverage potential post-FOMC vol spike via options.
Long
by Ox_kali
XAUUSD - Gold trend after FOMC!Gold is trading above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. A downward correction in gold will lead to buying opportunities from demand zone. Barclays Bank has issued a warning that the likelihood of an economic recession in the United States is increasing. According to the bank, ongoing uncertainty in U.S. trade negotiations has weakened business confidence and reduced investment activity, which could potentially steer the economy toward contraction. In a note to its clients, Barclays stated: “The longer this uncertainty drags on without tangible progress in negotiations, the greater the risk of a recession becomes.” While the bank still considers a mild recession to be the most likely scenario, it emphasized that this outcome could be avoided if trade tensions ease. Barclays also pointed to challenges facing the U.S. stock market, warning that further gains in equity prices will be difficult. The bank cited downgraded corporate earnings forecasts and President Trump’s unpredictable policy decisions as major obstacles to continued market growth. Meanwhile, investment bank Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its bullish stance on gold, forecasting that the price per ounce could reach $3,700 by the end of 2025 and rise to $4,000 by mid-2026. In the event of a U.S. recession, increased capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could push gold as high as $3,880. Additionally, in risk-heavy scenarios—such as shifts in U.S. reserve policy or concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence—gold could surge to $4,500 by year-end 2025. Analysts at CPM Group noted in their assessment that the U.S. government has recently pulled back from some of its tariff threats while also facing legal resistance and declining public support. They added that the release of weaker-than-expected economic data in recent days has raised speculation that the White House may backtrack on some of its more costly economic and political initiatives. Nevertheless, the firm cautioned that this reduction in perceived risk is likely temporary. “The recent price drop may prove short-lived, as it seems unlikely the government will completely abandon its plans. Rather, those policies may be restructured and pursued with a new approach. As such, the latest dip in gold prices—or any near-term decline—could present a strategic buying opportunity,” they said. CPM Group bases this outlook on the assumption that the geopolitical and economic forces that have supported gold and silver demand in recent months remain largely intact. Although some recent signals point to easing tensions, there are also indications that conditions could become more volatile later this year. Finally, the analysts added a seasonal perspective, stating: “We expect gold prices to peak between March and May, followed by a corrective phase through August—a pattern that could pave the way for new highs later in the year. Therefore, another rally in May is plausible, and purchasing during pullbacks—or even at current levels—could be a rational decision in the very short term.”
FLong
by Ali_PSND
FED Day: NQ Futures planCME_MINI:NQ1! Today is FOMC day; however, there is a larger geopolitical risk looming, along with the trade war and tariffs situation unfolding. Recently, we have noted inflation moving lower, although it is not yet at the FED’s 2% target. Retail sales fell sharply last month. Tariffs have not yet resulted in inflation so far, partly due to the 90-day pause, and with possible extensions, some deals agreed upon, and a framework for others in place, tariff uncertainty has considerably reduced. On the contrary, lower energy prices that supported lower inflation have risen due to ongoing geopolitical issues. Risks remain high for elevated energy prices even if supply and sea routes remain unharmed. In our view, this is due to the fragility of the situation and what it would take to turn the ongoing war into the worst possible outcome. The FED releases their Summary of Economic Projections. Key data points will be inflation and growth projections, along with interest rate projections and any talks about neutral rates and expected cuts, given the bleak global outlook and growth. The FED is otherwise expected to hold rates steady in this meeting. Given this, and what Chair Powell says in the FOMC press conference, their commitment towards driving inflation lower versus maximum employment, risks on the growth and employment side have started to worsen. If rate cut bets are moved forward or if markets price in more rate cuts than currently priced in, we may see equity index futures make further gains. NQ futures are coiling; the yearly VPOC has shifted higher, as we explained in our previous analysis. Today’s meeting may be key for further fuel higher or lower, depending on how it pans out. Market participants are in a wait and see mode. Markets are accepting higher prices and break of balance is key to determine the direction price may be headed in. Until otherwise proven, markets are range bound and mean reverting from June Composite Volume Profile towards monthly VWAP and VPOC.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
GBP/JPY in Trouble? Smart Money Rotates Into Yen📊 1. COT Analysis JPY (Japanese Yen): Non-Commercial Net Long: +54,615 – showing strong long accumulation since March. Recent Changes: Long: -5,319 Short: +1,235 ➡️ Mixed signals short-term, but overall net long positioning remains strong. Speculative funds are still heavily favoring the Yen, suggesting potential continued strength. GBP (British Pound): Non-Commercial Net Long: +51,634 (111,076 long – 59,442 short) Recent Changes: Long: +7,404 Short: -9,015 ➡️ Specs are still net long on GBP, but exposure has slightly decreased. The divergence with the Yen is narrowing. 🔎 COT Summary: Both currencies are being bought by speculators, but the JPY has shown more consistent long-term positioning. Net momentum appears to shift in favor of Yen strength, pointing to potential downside for GBP/JPY. 📅 2. Seasonality – June Historically, June is a weak month for GBP/JPY, especially over 20y, 15y, 5y, and 2y windows. Monthly average return is negative across all major historical timeframes (e.g. -1.2415 over 10 years). ➡️ Seasonality reinforces a bearish bias for June. 🧠 3. Retail Sentiment Short: 52% Long: 48% ➡️ Retail positioning is balanced, slightly skewed short. Not a strong contrarian signal, but also doesn’t support a bullish breakout scenario. 📉 4. Technical Analysis Current Structure: Ascending channel from mid-May → currently testing lower boundary. Key Zone: 195.600–196.520 is a major supply zone with multiple rejections. Recent Candle Action: Bearish pin bar + engulfing candle → strong rejection from resistance. Downside Targets: First: 193.076 Second: 191.439 Break of the channel would further confirm a trend reversal. ➡️ Price action supports a short scenario with high reward-to-risk toward lower zones.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
What to Expect From FOMC and the Market’s Reaction to It? With tariffs and Middle East escalation in focus, central banks have somewhat fallen to the backstage recently. But today’s FOMC meeting might change that. The federal funds rate upper band is most likely to stay at 4.50% with a unanimous vote. However, today’s focus will not be on the interest rate itself but rather on the dot plot and updated economic forecasts. Inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target, but that trend may have shifted with the latest CPI report. Although recent inflation data came in better than expected, inflation appears to be flattening above 2% and could start rising again in the near future. Last week’s CPI and Core CPI reports showed early signs of this, and the upcoming PCE and Core PCE data could confirm those signals. Why is inflation still low despite tariffs? The main reason is frontloading. U.S. consumers and firms frontloaded many goods, especially durable good, ahead of the tariff hikes. Now, with tariffs in effect, consumption has slowed, and many firms are holding elevated inventory levels. In this environment, firms are reluctant to raise prices due to lower demand and high stockpiles. This suppressive effect is expected to gradually fade, allowing prices to rise. For that reason, the Fed is unlikely to begin rate cuts prematurely. Inflation could make a peak in the last quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026 in our view. But the possible oil price spike due to Iran – Israel war could change this projection. At the March FOMC meeting when the economic projections were last updated, some of the tariff impacts were already incorporated. Inflation and unemployment were revised higher, while GDP was revised lower. Despite this, the Fed maintained its forecast of two rate cuts for both 2025 and 2026. However, since March, newly announced tariffs have been more extensive than expected. Some board members including Jerome Powell stated that. As a result, a similar adjustment to the forecasts may occur today: higher inflation and unemployment, lower GDP. Accordingly, the dot plot could show only one rate cut for 2025 and three for 2026. Why would the Fed cut more in 2026? Because the tariff impact is expected to be a one-time shock, not a structural shift. Once the effects wear off, the Fed could ease more. But there are some risks to that. According to some new research and New York FED President Williams, not only long term inflation expectations needs to be anchored, rather the “whole curve” So during a possible inflation peak came with tariff effects, FED could not cut repeatedly and should closely watch the effects on short-term inflation expectations. The main focus of today’s FOMC will be on the economic forecasts and the dot plot. If the new projections reflect only one cut for 2025, this would be bullish for the dollar. If the 2026 projection also shows only two cuts, that would be even more bullish. On the other hand, if the current forecast of two cuts in both 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, the reaction could be slightly dovish for the dollar. During the post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell is likely to focus on uncertainties related to tariffs and energy prices, especially given the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Powell may downplay the hawkish tone of the dot plot during the conference, potentially reducing the overall market impact. With all this in mind, the dollar index could either break out of the descending wedge formation on the hourly chart or continue drifting toward the lower boundary. Holding above the 99 level could be key for short-term price action.
TVC:DXY
by ftdsystem
Bitcoin - Levels of the Range On the hourly time frame it is clear that BTC is within a rangebound environment. Using key levels such as the weekly highs and lows with Mondays highs and lows to to paint a picture of where support and resistance may be. In the "weekly outlook" post for this week I suggested a retest of the $108,500 area, an orderblock that pushed prices lower and is notorious for protecting Stop losses of the shorts that pushed price lower, nearly instantly as the week starts we get that move to sweep the supply zone and stop hunt the short trades. After a successful sweep the swing fail pattern typically follows when in a rangebound environment or absent of a trend. This structure plays out and the sell-off follows. Price breaks through the Monday low with zero fight so momentum is with the bears in the low time frame. Should momentum continue the previous week low is @ $102,500 which is in line with HTF key level too. RSI is also entering the oversold zone and in a rangebound environment can be when price reverses direction, as seen by the previous Monday High and Previous week low. With FOMC just over 24 hours away volatility usually follows. No rate cut forecast however many think the interest rate should be brought down in line with inflation as the ECB has already done. In conclusion, BTC is in a clear rangebound environment on the hourly time frame. Stop loss hunt/supply zone sweep and then SFP, the LTF momentum is with the bears going into FOMC. Next point of support at $102,500 (Previous week low) and could be boosted by the oversold RSI. An FOMC rate cut should be bullish although currently thought to be unlikely.
by ProR35
Bitcoin Multiframe: Key clusters to watch before FOMC__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Dominant bullish structure across all major timeframes (MTFTI = Up). Supports/Resistances: No HTF pivot engaged; key on-chain support at $97.6k, resistance at $115.4k. Volume: Central oscillation within range; no major surges observed, consolidation on micro-TF. Multi-timeframe behaviors: Bullish structure dominates, technical pullback on 4H-1H-15min without major breaks. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall Bias: Structurally bullish as long as key supports hold (97.6k–104.5k zone). Opportunities: Buy confirmed dips on on-chain cluster/H4-H2 area, target 110–115k extension post-FOMC positive catalyst. Risk zones: Extreme volatility expected around FOMC (June 17–18); strict risk management, avoid overexposure. Macro catalysts: FOMC (rate decision, dot plot), Fed leadership stability, Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions. Action plan: Patience until FOMC; favor setups on clear price reaction, tight stops below 97.5k (on-chain support). __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Bullish momentum, price at range center ($106k). Watch for pivot break. 12H: Persistent bullish bias, confluence with 1D. 6H: Expected consolidation, bullish structure. 4H: Technical pullback, bullish structure remains. Key anticipated support 105k–104.5k. 2H: Likely move towards lower range. Up bias confirmed. 1H: Technical correction within overall Up trend. 30min/15min: Seller sequence, trend intact, no major break. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator remains “Up” across all frames, boosting the positive view despite short-term correction. Executive summary: Strong bullish convergence from Daily → 15min timeframes. Ongoing short-term pullback, no HTF pivot breaks. Any break below $97.6k would invalidate the swing bullish scenario. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro, Economic Calendar, On-chain & Risk Management __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro: FOMC imminent (June 17–18): waiting – volatility on rate/dot plot. Geopolitical risk (Iran-Israel): sustained global risk-off may escalate. BTC shows strong resilience at 106k. Economic calendar (key points): June 17–18: FOMC — maximum impact (stocks, FX, crypto) June 17: Fed leadership rumors — potential volatility, BTC stable June 17, 08:30 UTC: USA — retail sales (May/core) On-chain: Key support at $97.6k (STH cost basis), resistance at $115.4k. Long-term holders are distributing, but bullish accumulation pressure intact. Clustering may amplify short-term directional moves. Key scenarios: Bullish: Extension to 110–115k if FOMC positive, stop below 97.6k. Bearish: Break of 97.6k = risk of drop towards 92.9–95.4k. Management: Avoid exposure pre-FOMC, active monitoring, strict stops. Patience & discipline: Only size up with post-FOMC validated reaction or confirmed breakout. On-chain cluster = invalidation radar for bullish bias. __________________________________________________________________________________
Long
by Ox_kali
Tariff uncertainty keeps weighing on the dollar. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased slightly amid signs of potential negotiations, prompting markets to shift their focus back to the upcoming FOMC and tariffs. Following talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, President Trump stated that a trade deal with Canada could be reached within weeks, and also confirmed that a trade agreement with the UK has been signed. Meanwhile, markets are almost certain that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC, with the probability priced at 99.8%. Wells Fargo expects the inflation outlook to rise due to the delayed impact of higher tariffs, projecting that the year-end median federal funds rate will climb by 25bps to 4.125%. DXY is consolidating within the 97.50–98.50 range, remaining below both EMAs, which suggests a potential continuation of bearish momentum. If DXY breaks below the support at 98.00, the index may retreat to 97.50. Conversely, if DXY breaches above the resistance at 98.50 and the descending trendline, the index could gain upward momentum toward 99.00.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC, Trade Deals and GeopoliticsIt is a holiday-shortened week, with the majority of markets halting early on Thursday, June 19, 2025, in observance of Juneteenth. See here for holiday trading schedule Key Themes to Monitor This Week Geopolitical Risks Any outside intervention in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict will likely be seen as a risk-off event by market participants. Despite Friday’s sell-off, markets shrugged off during the Sunday open and overnight sessions. There are potential risks to trade routes and energy infrastructure, although disruptions seem unlikely at the moment. Amena Bakr at Kpler noted that, so far, there are no signs of disruptions in oil loadings from Iran. Without a supply outage, there is no pressing need for additional barrels to be brought onto the market. Trade War and Trade Deals There have been recent developments with the U.S. reaching key trade deal milestones with several countries. The baseline scenario remains optimistic, with expectations for an extension in negotiations and potential reciprocal tariffs for countries failing to reach agreements. FED Week This is a key week for U.S. monetary policy, with the FOMC decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Chair Powell’s press conference scheduled. Traders will be closely watching how the Fed’s inflation and growth expectations have evolved, as reflected in the SEP. All eyes will be on the dot plot to note how interest rate expectations have evolved since last quarter. Of note: Will President Trump’s continued calls for rate cuts influence Chair Powell’s tone or guidance? Expectations for the Week Ahead NQ futures have continued one-time framing higher, consistently creating higher lows since the week of April 21, 2025. A strong support zone exists below, anchored at the yearly Volume Point of Control (VPOC) and the Anchored VWAP from May 11, 2025, when markets gapped higher. Key Levels to Watch • yVAH: 22,690.50 • R2: 22,510 • R1 / Previous Week High: 22,322.50 • May 11 AVWAP: 21,672.25 • yVPOC: 21,660 Scenario 1: Market Grinds Higher but Stays Cautious Despite several looming risk factors, the market could continue to grind higher. In this scenario, we anticipate a test above the prior week's high, followed by a potential pullback into last week’s range. Example Trade Idea 1 • Entry: 22,000 • Stop: 21,930 • Target: 22,322 • Risk: 70 pts • Reward: 322 pts • Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R Scenario 2: Pullback to Support, Range-Bound Consolidation If the market pulls back, we expect the yearly VPOC and AVWAP from May 11 to act as key support levels. In this case, price action may remain range-bound within the previous week’s range, forming an inside week. Example Trade Idea 2 • Entry: 21,672 • Stop: 21,600 • Target: 22,000 • Risk: 72 pts • Reward: 328 pts • Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.6R ________________________________________ Glossary • VPOC: Volume Point of Control • VA: Value Area • VAL: Value Area Low • VAH: Value Area High • VP: Volume Profile • AVP: Anchored Volume Profile • Y: Yearly • pWk: Previous Week
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
4
when Jerome says spike, the markets asks how low/high"Watch what they do, but also how they say it." In the high-stakes world of central banking, few things move markets like the subtle wording of a Fed statement, But beyond the headlines and soundbites, one market absorbs this information faster—and with greater clarity—than almost any other: the bond market. 💬 What Is "Fed Speak"? "Fed speak" refers to the nuanced and often deliberately vague language used by U.S. Federal Reserve officials when communicating policy expectations. It includes: FOMC statements Dot plot projections Press conferences Individual speeches from Fed officials nerdy tip: the Fed aims to influence expectations without committing to specific outcomes, maintaining flexibility while steering market psychology. 📈 The Bond Market as a Decoder The bond market, particularly the U.S. Treasury market, is where real-time interpretation of Fed policy plays out. Here's how it typically reacts: 1. Short-Term Yields (2Y, 3M) = Fed Expectation Barometer These are the most sensitive to near-term interest rate expectations. If the Fed sounds hawkish (more rate hikes), short-term yields jump. If dovish (hinting cuts), they fall. At the May 7, 2025 FOMC meeting, the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y) experienced a modest but clear reaction: Just before the release, yields were hovering around 3.79%. In the first hour following the 2:00 PM ET (20:00 UTC+2) statement, the yield ticked up by approximately +8 basis points, temporarily reaching about 3.87%. Later that day, it eased back to around 3.79%, ending the day roughly unchanged—a sharp, immediate spike followed by a reversion. 2. Long-Term Yields (10Y, 30Y) = Growth + Inflation Expectations Longer-dated yields reflect how the market sees the economy unfolding over time. After a Fed speech: Rising long-term yields = stronger growth/inflation expected Falling yields = fears of recession, disinflation, or policy over-tightening 3. The Yield Curve = Market's Policy Verdict One of the best tools to read the bond market's verdict is the yield curve—specifically, the spread between 10Y and 2Y yields. Steepening curve → Market thinks growth is picking up (Fed may be behind the curve) Flattening or Inversion → Market believes the Fed is too aggressive, risking a slowdown or recession 📉 Example: After Jerome Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech in 2022, the 2Y-10Y spread inverted deeply—markets were pricing in recession risks despite a strong Fed tone. 🧠 Why Traders Must Watch Bonds After Fed Speak 🪙 FX Traders: Higher yields = stronger USD (carry trade advantage) Falling yields = weaker USD (lower return for holding) 📈 Equity Traders: Rising yields = pressure on tech/growth stocks (higher discount rates) Falling yields = relief rally in risk assets 📊 Macro Traders: The MOVE Index (bond volatility) often spikes around FOMC events Forward guidance shifts = big rotation opportunities (e.g., bonds > gold > dollar) (BONUS NERDY TIP) 🔍 How to Analyze Fed Speak Through Bonds ✅ Step 1: Watch the 2Y Yield First responder to new rate expectations. ✅ Step 2: Check the Fed Funds Futures Compare market pricing pre- and post-statement. ✅ Step 3: Look at Yield Curve Movement Steepening or inversion? That’s the market’s macro take. ✅ Step 4: Track TLT or 10Y Yield on Your Chart Bond ETFs or Treasury yields reveal sentiment instantly. 🧭 Final Nerdy Thought : Bonds React First, Talk Later When the Fed speaks, don't just read the words. Read the yields. The bond market is often the first to interpret what the Fed really means—and the first to price in what comes next. So next FOMC meeting, instead of watching only Powell’s facial expressions or CNBC pundits, open a chart of the 2Y and 10Y. That’s where the smart money’s listening. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile courtesy of : @TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Gold Technical & Fundamental Outlook for Next WeekIn this video, I break down the recent surge in gold prices, what drove the momentum, including rising tensions between Israel and Iran, and the impact of weaker U.S. inflation data that’s pushing Fed rate cut expectations. Gold is now sitting just below the all-time high of around $3,500. With major U.S. economic events like Retail Sales and the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision coming up, this is a key moment for us to prepare. 💥 Will we see a breakout above resistance, or is a healthy dip on the cards before the next move? I’ll walk you through the key levels, the market psychology, and how I’m planning my trades this week. 💡 Make sure to like, comment, and subscribe for more weekly gold and forex market insights. Disclaimer: Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading. #GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #GoldPrice #ForexTrading #MarketOutlook #GoldForecast #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #FOMC #FedRateDecision #RetailSales #SafeHaven #GoldBreakout #TradingStrategy #ForexMentor
E
by darcsherry
Central banks dominate calendar this week: Will Fed surprise?A pack of central bank decisions is set to drive market direction this week, with the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), and Bank of England (Thursday) all scheduled to announce their latest interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve will, of course, take center stage. Despite President Trump’s continued call for a 100-basis point rate cut, Fed officials are widely expected to keep rates unchanged. However, softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data from last week may provide scope for a surprise. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just above the key support zone at 98.00, a level not seen since early 2022. A decisive break below this area could open the door to further downside, potentially targeting the 96.00 region. However, a surprise from the Fed could trigger a rebound toward the 100.50–101.00 resistance band.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
BTCUSDT Analysis – Pivot 103k/106k, strategy and key zones__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Bullish structure on 1D/12H (MTFTI “Up”), but short-term consolidation (1H-2H “Down”). Momentum exhaustion observed. Key Supports/Resistances : Resistances: 105287.8 / 106743.9 / 109952.8 / 111949. Supports: 103033.3 / 100333.3 / 93337.4. Repeated rejections below 105-106k, active testing of 103-100k supports. Volume : Normal or slightly elevated on all timeframes. No capitulation or euphoric extremes detected. Multi-TF Behaviour : Strong sector leadership (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = “Strong Buy” across all frames; growth stocks > market). No behavioural anomalies on ISPD DIV. High-cycle consolidation below resistance. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall Bias : Neutral/bullish as long as 103k/100k holds. Bullish momentum intact, but short-term caution warranted. Opportunities : Defensive buys/technical pullbacks above 103k; scalp/range trading 103-106k. Risk Zones : Confirmed breakdown below 100k or acceleration in LTH distribution. Macro Catalysts : Next FOMC June 17-18; no major short-term events identified (recent neutral macro, FOMC is key for swings). Action Plan : Prioritize strict stops (≥3%) near pivots, consistent monitoring of behaviour/volume. Avoid overexposure pre-FOMC. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D : Structuring range below 109952.8-111949 resistances. Bullish HTF trend, but momentum pausing. Average volume. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Strong Buy”. No extreme ISPD signals (neutral). 12H – 6H : Consolidation; supports holding, no euphoric confirmation (normal volumes, ISPD DIV neutral). Sector leadership unchanged. 4H : Compression below 105287.8. Moderate volume. Defensive resumption on supports. MTFTI bullish. Dynamic risk: monitor for sell-side capitulation. 2H – 1H : Technical correction, active retest of 105k (range 103-105k). Absorption volume. MTFTI “Down”. 30min – 15min : Short-term positive bias above 103k. Risk of false break if volume remains low. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Buy”/“Strong Buy”. Cross-Indicators : Market leadership confirmed: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = Strong Buy on all frames >15min. No excess behaviour or significant divergences detected. Key ranges: 103k-105k. On-chain: heavy LTH profit-taking but no panic. Summary : BTC market in post-cycle-high congestion phase, structurally robust, but momentum recalibrating with fewer “easy trades.” __________________________________________________________________________________ Cross insights & on-chain summary __________________________________________________________________________________ On-chain (Glassnode) : Top at $111.8k, correction to $103.2k by LTH profit-taking. Spot accumulation on $103.7k/$95.6k. Upside limited unless fresh buying flows return. Macro events : Awaiting FOMC; no recent surprises. Price action and levels dominate short-term strategy. Stops/invalidation : Swing long defended at 103k/100k (stop <100k H4). Partial short/sell below 106743.9/109952.8. Dynamic targets: 106-109.9k; extension: 111.8k if breakout on volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion & Actionable Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Market condition: - High consolidation, ranging below major resistances. - Long-term bullish, short-term momentum fading. - Neutral/bullish if 100-103k holds. - “No macro — only levels” until FOMC or volatility catalyst. Tactical decision: - Trade technically, stops ≥3% under supports. - Defended buys at 103k (stop <100k), partial profit 106-109k. - Continuous monitoring of volume/on-chain zone reaction. - Aggressive exit/hedge below support, target 96k/83k. __________________________________________________________________________________ 100% analysis based on TradingView multi-TF, Glassnode on-chain, macro calendar and risk management. __________________________________________________________________________________
Long
by Ox_kali
Coffee Pullback or Opportunity?The COT report dated May 20, 2025, reveals a gradual cooling of speculative sentiment in the coffee market. Non-commercials (speculative funds and money managers), who had largely fueled the strong rally towards the 420 USX/lb highs, are now closing long positions (–2,599 contracts), though they still maintain a significantly positive net exposure (+43,300 net contracts). At the same time, commercials (industry operators such as roasters, exporters, and processors) have reduced both their long and short positions. However, the drop in short hedges (–4,103 contracts) is an important signal—it may suggest less need for downside protection at current prices, often an early sign of a potential market bottom. Total open interest has decreased by 4,406 contracts, signaling a phase of liquidation and consolidation, where traders are reducing exposure rather than initiating new positions. 📌 Fundamental conclusion: The market is undergoing a healthy reset following the Q1 2025 boom, with speculators stepping back and commercials cautiously optimistic. 📈 Seasonal Analysis Seasonal tendencies align well with the current technical outlook. May is historically a weak month, with negative average returns across most time frames (10y, 15y, 20y). However, from June—especially July onward, data shows a strong seasonal rebound, with July–August being statistically the best-performing period of the year for coffee. This is partly due to climate-related risks (Brazilian winter, frost risk) and harvest/logistics cycles in key producing regions. 📌 Seasonal conclusion: June may offer a strategic accumulation window ahead of the traditional summer coffee rally. 🧭 Technical Analysis (Daily) The KC1! daily chart clearly reflects a distribution and correction phase following the early March peak at 420 USX/lb. Price has broken below the 355–360 demand zone and is currently testing a key support area between 340 and 325, previously established as a demand base during January–February 2025. The medium-term trend remains bullish, but the market is now in a downward corrective channel, with lower highs and lower lows. The weekly RSI sits in a low-neutral range—not yet fully oversold, suggesting there may still be room for further downside, though the bulk of the correction may already be priced in. 📌 Technical conclusion: The market is undergoing a deep pullback within a broader uptrend and is approaching potential reversal zones. 🔎 Strategic Outlook The coffee market is in the midst of a cyclical and technical correction following its sharp Q1 2025 rally. The COT report reflects a rebalancing of speculative positioning, while commercials appear less aggressive on the short side. Seasonality favors a rebound starting June, and the technicals point to a potential long-entry zone around 340–325, attractive for medium-term positioning. ✅ Recommended Trading Setup Base scenario (medium-term long): Entry: Between 340 and 325 USX/lb (gradual accumulation) Stop Loss: Weekly close below 320 (bearish confirmation) Target 1: 390 (intermediate supply zone) Target 2: 410–420 (return to highs) Confluence: RSI support, COT shift, seasonal upside, technical demand zone Alternative scenario (bearish breakdown): Only if weekly closes below 320 This would open room toward 300–285 USX/lb 📌 Final Conclusion While short-term caution is warranted, current conditions offer attractive long re-entry opportunities for those who await confirmation around the 325–340 support area. The ideal setup would include: Weekly stabilization with higher lows Renewed speculative long positioning in COT Seasonal momentum kicking in from mid-June
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus 📌 MARKET OVERVIEW USDCHF is currently consolidating within a tight range after a technical rebound from the 0.8226 support zone. The price is testing a confluence area at the descending trendline and the 200 EMA on the H2 chart, indicating indecision between bulls and bears as we head into the high-impact FOMC event. 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H2 CHART Overall Trend: Sideways corrective move within a broader downtrend channel. Price is approaching critical resistance at the EMA200 and the channel’s upper boundary. EMAs in focus: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red). Fibonacci Retracement: Price is hovering around the 0.5 fib zone (0.8298), a neutral level for potential reaction. 🎯 Key Levels & Trade Scenarios: Major Resistance Zone: 0.8330 – 0.8368 → aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and previous structural high. Key Support Zone: 0.8226 → strong demand area. A break below this could expose deeper downside or set up a false break trap. 📌 Most Likely Path: Price could dip back to 0.8226 before launching a bullish recovery targeting 0.8330 – 0.8368. A clean breakout above 0.8368 with momentum and volume could invalidate the bearish bias and shift the trend mid-term. 🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT FOMC IN FOCUS: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting. However, market attention will be on Powell’s tone. A hawkish stance could fuel further USD strength, propelling USDCHF toward resistance zones. SNB (Swiss National Bank) maintains a neutral tone with slight disinflationary concerns, offering limited support for the CHF and strengthening the USDCHF upside case. US Treasury Yields are showing signs of recovery, adding bullish pressure to USD pairs. 📌 TRADING STRATEGY: Watch for bullish reaction at 0.8226 – potential long setup if RSI divergence appears. Short-term targets: 0.8330 → 0.8368. Breakout Strategy: If price clears 0.8368 with conviction, shift bias to bullish continuation and monitor for FVG or trendline breakout alignment. 📣 Stay sharp for increased volatility around FOMC. Position sizing and discipline are key in macro-heavy weeks like this.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
3
Gold Weekly AnalysisThe FOMC meeting could make cold rise up dramatically. The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones. Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray. You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confrimation and ETC. SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings. TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels. ******************************************************************* Role of different zones: GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them. RED: Just Short trades allowed on them. BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them. WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
FLong
by AliSignals
SPY/SPX: FOMC. Do we get rate cuts or do we even get a hike?!TA on SPY but I also like playing SPX. Was seeing this as either a rising wedge, and if play (with FOMC etc.) can touch and retest 551.41 then back move back up to test 562.81 and to out at 567.85 IF market reacts well to FOMC, maybe ATH? If not, we actually fulfill that rising wedge to 543.54 with a small gap to touch/retest at 534.54 I may sit sidelines until FOMC to catch the move and waves. Always wait for the set up to come to you! One of the rules I try to keep following but I break. Let me know what you think. Will continue to update as it the week progresses. Again, do your own DD. Not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by sweatytrigger
Why I'm Bullish on the DXY: A Fundamental Approach!Powell continues to take a cautious tone, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach while acknowledging rising inflation risks, which suggests there's no urgency to cut rates. This leans slightly hawkish, especially compared to the market’s more dovish expectations, and could support some near-term Dollar strength. However, a more sustained move in the USD likely hinges on progress in upcoming trade discussions—particularly with China. Today's FOMC outcome is just one part of the broader picture; the next key signal may come with developments in the coming days. For now, the bias remains USD bullish heading into the London session. Technically, the DXY has broken its downtrend, signaling a potential shift in momentum. I’ll be watching for a possible retracement toward the 99.700 area, which could serve as a key support level before any further upside continuation.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
4
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Our NFP KOG Report worked pretty well apart from it being a Friday and us closing out positions for the weekend only for the move to complete on Monday. For this FOMC we’ll share the levels and potential reaction points on the red boxes as well as the red box target levels. Due to the range, it’s best to wait for the break and also for them to move the price to where they want, then hunt the trade once price has settled. We have the immediate support level below 3360-55 which if held can push this upside to break the recent high and that 3480-90 level again. Break of that level we have red box region 3330-20 which is where we could get a RIP but that will give us the flip with potential for the order region 3350-55 to turn into resistance unless broken. For that reason, a down move for now could only give scalps for decent captures on tap and bounces. 3320 is the line in the sand, if broken below we’ll get the long from the 3290-95 region which will come next week. Note, these days it’s only Trump that manages to move the markets aggressively, so this FOMC is most likely already priced in. Not worth attempting the immediate levels so we’ll rather wait for the extreme levels. RED BOXES INDI LEVELS: Break above 3395 for 3406, 3410, 3420, 3430 and 3435 in extension of the move Break below 3375 for 3370, 3366, 3356, 3351 and 3345 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
F
by KnightsofGold
14