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FOMC

No such thing as a Hawkish pause? USD overrated? Has the market adopted the term “hawkish pause” to bolster USD bids? It could be possible that, in an attempt to drag out USD strength just a little bit longer (euro has weakened –4.20% in past 6 months), the term Hawkish Pause has been thrown around with not-enough criticism. Not many people have confidence in the US Fed to really make the hard decisions (transitory inflation anyone?), including being able to start up the rate hiking engine again (this year or next) after a few pauses. If they do, will they do it in a timely manner? Jerome Powell, this morning noted in his public address that the committee hasn’t discussed what it might plan for its December decision but dismissed the idea that it would be difficult to start hiking again (if the conditions in the market require such an action). There are two more inflation readings and two more labor market readings before the last decision of the year. Maybe investors have shrugged off the hawkish pause rhetoric this morning though. The Australian dollar is pumping, up 0.94% at last look, while the dollar has fallen more than half a percent against the yen. The euro is only up 0.16%.
by BlackBull_Markets
Should I do a FOMC strangle/ straddle play? Read here.So, what's the best way to play FOMC? Probably a strangle. According to last FOMC on 9/20 your NASDAQ:QQQ calls would have printed around +50% or more. Assuming you sold and held your puts, your puts would have given you an extra 200% to 300%. You can do this on any stock obviously. Don't get greedy. Best decision might be to stay out of course. Choosing a definite direction (i.e. holding calls/ puts only without a hedge) is pure gambling. Good luck. Welcome to follow for trade ideas. FOMC chart 9/20:
NASDAQ:QQQ
by kingdips
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCFOMC – KOG Report: This is our view for FOMC tomorrow, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We would suggest if you’re new to trading to stay away from the markets and come back tomorrow, once they have moved the price to where they want to. In Sundays KOG Report we said that if we saw price give indications of a down move we would trade it level to level on the way down targeting 1975 which is where we would want to see a reaction in price. Right now, as we stand, we’re not going to think about going long on price unless we hit the key levels below, where, if we see a clean set up an opportunity to long the market could be on the cards. Please note, we will only be following our target levels and trading this level to level due there being NFP on Friday as well. Illustrated on the chart is the path we’re looking for, if we don't get it we'll stay out. If they take it up during the release we’ll sit and wait for the higher resistance levels to hold before attempting the short trade. Levels to look out for: Support: 1960 / 1955 / 1950 for the tap and bounce Resistance: 1985 / 1990 / 1995 KOG’s bias of the day: Bearish below 1987 with targets below 1963 and below that 1955 Bullish on break of 1987 with targets above 2005 and above that 2015 Expect swings and spikes in either direction, especially during the press conference which is after the statement. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD Bear Pennant PatternHi Traders! GBPUSD is in a bear pennant pattern and is heading for the 4-week low at 1.20372 in anticipation of the FOMC press conference later today.   Price Action 📊 The market is currently in the bear pennant pattern and is showing bearish signals with lower highs and lower lows; additionally, there has been a break and a close under the 20 EMA. We are now looking for a momentum break to break and close below the support trendline to target the four-week low at 1.20372. Fundamental Analysis 📰 The US economy expanded at a 4.9% annual rate from July through September as Americans defied higher prices and rising interest rates. Economists have also said the US economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly two years—more than twice the 2.1% annual rate of the previous quarter. The FOMC press conference is later today, so traders are eagerly waiting to hear what their statements are on the current US economic improvements. Support 📉 1.20943: TRENDLINE SUPPORT 1.20372: FOUR-WEEK LOW Resistance 📈 1.21836: 20 EMA 1.22008: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
FOMC Preparation 1st November1st November 2023 DXY: consolidate along 106.70, above 106.90 FOMC decision push to 107.35 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5860 SL 20 TP 60 (dxy weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.63 SL 20 TP 60 (dxy strength) USDJPY: Buy 151.55 SL 20 TP 60 (watch out for possible intervention) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2130 SL 25 TP 60 (dxy strength) EURUSD: Sell 1.0545 SL 30 TP 90 (dxy strength) USDCHF: Sell 0.9075 SL 30 TP 70 (counter trend, dxy weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.39 SL 35 TP 70 Gold: below 1972 could reach 1952 (dxy strength)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
Heavy Dollar news day tomorrowWhat an insane session for USDJPY! We know the ExMo is low due to the compression we've seen, but even compared to more normalised figure, what we've seen today has broken all expectations. There are two questions going forward. The most immediate is the Dollar news we have scheduled for Nov 1st. Those being ADP at 12:15pm London (due to daylight savings) followed by the Fed rate decision at 6pm. The second is whether or not the BoJ have any other tools to alleviate the Yen weakness other than simply intervening like we've seen before. Let's tackle the new first. I wouldn't expect ADP to cause much of a stir given the Fed decision always overshadows anything else, and if the Fed holds at 5.50%, then I wouldn't expect anything other than a small bump. Given the move we've seen today I think some form of relax to happen, possibly with a slight downward trajectory for profit taking....possibly we just slide a little lower into the end of the week? As for the BoJ, I'm nervous above 150. I'll take it a day at a time above here and be mindful of any macro factors that change the longer term outlook for either the Dollar or Yen. But it seems like the only mechanism Japan has to stop the devaluation is to inject a whole bunch of money into buying the Yen. Be careful out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
by RuckSack
2
EURUSD: Daily Price Action Suggests A Move UpLooking at this pair it's been trading in a descending dynamic channel since mid-July, it makes up nearly 58% of the DXY index and so is in close negative correlation to this index. We can see the on the daily a pinbar followed by a long-wick doji, which could mean reversal, the opposite can be seen in DXY: We can now see a breakout of the channel, and the pinbar was formed on the restest, and now the long wick doji. We have a lot of news this week affecting the Euro (Mon / Tues), and then the USD (Wed). Overall I think that the price action is determining a weaker dollar which means stronger crosses for the next short period of time, dollar needs a rest and has failed to form a new HH yet despite economic news that would normally entice the bulls. There will be volatility this week so being conservative with initial target, however depending on the news we could well see us back over 1.08 this month.
Long
by Finchcliffe
1
Gold climbs on global uncertaintyOvernight Gold approached the 3-month high of $1985, since June & July 2023. This was likely due to the - Fed chair Jerome Powell's comments which indicated that the rise in yields might lessen the need for additional rate increases. With the increasing probability of the US Federal Reserve keeping rates on hold at the November meeting, the DXY saw brief moves to the downside. - Continued escalation in geopolitical uncertainty, as troops are reportedly gathering at the Gaza border, suggesting an expected ground invasion, financial markets are seeing a strong move toward the reserve commodity. Do you think Gold will continue its climb higher to the key resistance of $2066?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/USD flat as retail sales eyedThe British pound is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2142, almost unchanged. The UK inflation report on Wednesday was a stark reminder that inflation remains stubborn and sticky. The Bank of England has raised the benchmark rate to 5.25%, but headline inflation was steady at 6.7% y/y and the core rate ticked lower to 6.1%, down from 6.2%. Both readings were higher than expected disappointed investors sent the British pound lower on Wednesday. A key driver of headline inflation was rising motor fuel prices. The Israel-Hamas war has raised tensions throughout the Middle East and if there are disruptions in crude oil, inflation would likely rise due to higher motor fuel costs. The UK wraps up the week with retail sales on Friday. The markets are braced for a weak September with a market estimate of -0.2%, following a 0.4% gain in August. On an annualized basis, retail sales declined by 1.4% in August, but are expected to improve to -0.1% in September. In the US, unemployment claims for the week of October 14th sizzled at 198,000. This was lower than the previous week's release of 211,000 (revised) and lower than the consensus estimate of 212,000. The US labour market has been showing signs of softening as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes continue to filter through the economy and dampen economic growth. The markets are always interested in what Fed members have to say, hoping for some insights into Fed rate policy. A host of FOMC members will deliver remarks today, highlighted by a speech from Fed Chair Powell at an event in New York City. Today's lineup has added significance as the Fed will enter a blackout period ahead of the meeting on November 1st. The sharp rise in US Treasuries has led to some Fed members saying that inflation could fall without further hikes, and investors will be watching to see if that dovish message is repeated today by Powell and his colleagues. There is resistance at 1.2163 and 1.2202 1.2066 and 1.1987 and providing support
by fisherkj4
USDJPY: The Short - when??I think that retail traders in the main are expecting this pair to crash from 150, I have been, and it may well do (as per my related idea below)... Commentators and past experience suggests that the BoJ will intervene around 150 to 151.5 because they have to, due to the debt relationship with the USA, they're stuck between a rock and a hard place. We all know what happens when retailers think they know best...I'm starting to think that we'll push higher to 154 before the dump. I think the current global conflict will help the USD get there, but that level will be unsustainable for Japan so will come back down with a bang. In the meantime I'm still day trading up and down and catching some moves on this pair, but I'm starting to think the big one is a little way off yet, let's see...
Short
by Finchcliffe
War news pushes gold up 1%war new pushed gold futures up 1% pre market, vix was up almost 10% at one point we retraced down to the .50 fib level, which was 1836. Now, going back up we can test the 1882 .618 fib level. This war has been going on for decades and was temporary to the markets, as spy has almost fully recovered now. The ongoing conflict in middle east should keep gold, oil and nat gas in bullish trend. There are FOMC speakers this week as well, which will affect interest rates and DXY. Cheers!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by hockeysniper
USDJPY: My next 2 moves as I expect BoJ to defend their currencyI'm expecting USDJPY to carry on meandering towards the 150 mark, and it's at this level that we've previously seen BoJ step in to defend their currency, We saw the same in June / July 2022, and I think we'll see it again. BoJ has started hinting at a change to monetary policy for the first time in a long time, we saw a very small reaction in the past week to this, but right now the dollar is too strong for this to have made a difference. I'm expecting DXY to retrace from current levels and this cross could be a big beneficiary if BoJ do what I think, it's always good to trade strength against weakness. There could well be some little long scalp opportunities for me (with very very tight SL's moving to BE asap) on the way up to 150 (within the rising wedge) as that's still some good pips away, but for me the bigger moves now will be to the downside. I'm not planning on getting caught with any longs up here... This is a big news week for this pair with FOMC on Wednesday and BoJ interest rate decision and conference Friday, will be interesting to see how this all pans out ahead of these fundamentals, but beyond them I'm expecting things to play out as per this idea. I've plotted two moves, first from the 150 ish mark down to support, and then another sell down to the rising long term trendline.
Short
by Finchcliffe
2
XAUUSD (GOLD): Why I'm still Bullish...Gold underpins the Chinese Yuan, it's underpinning the BRICS movement full-stop. Chinese economy is on the move... Recently, despite USD strength, Gold has maintained a HL, and I now see a reverse H&S forming. I expect FOMC to pause this week, and often FOMC is not the best for USD. I believe Gold has been forming a bull flag (which I calculate has been broken out of and retested), rather than a reversal of the current movement, at the very least it will re-challenge the ascending channel it broke out of. Gold seems ultra resilient despite dollar strength, a moment of dollar weakness (that I think we'll see this week) and I think it'll pump.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Finchcliffe
Trading Plans for MON. 09/25 - Market Bull Exhausted?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 09/25 As our daily trading plans reinforced before the FOMC meeting stated: "...any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell which way this could go until after the FOMC meeting". The unexpectedly hawkish Fed stance drove the markets down and continuing to push it lower. Our published trading plans on Friday, 09/15 stated: "Models continue to indicate that the index has to close above 4507 on a daily close basis to flip to a bullish bias. Between 4460 and 4507, models indicate an indeterminate bias". This week's 4505 level could be the top for the near term. A daily close above 4404 is needed for our models to turn bullish again. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4354, 4332, 4324, 4315, or 4304 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4350, 4329, 4321, or 4302 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4313. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #FOMC
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
25/09/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $27490.1 Last weeks low: $26897.7 Midpoint: $26305.4 Despite several big news events relating to the FED funds rate, CPI & PPI, we saw a much tighter range last week than the week previously. We're already trading lower than last weeks low and confirmed as resistance with a bearish retest. It is interesting that the news events that used to give us such volatility are now barely noticeable on the chart at all. This leads me to believe we're in the later stages of the bear market, where the speculative investors traders are no longer interested, the market makers are not interested in trading news events that are risky and therefore we have almost a stalemate in price action. When an asset like BTC fails to have buy side pressure/volume then price will naturally creep lower to find buyers, this is basic supply and demand and the reason for my prediction that we'll see a retest of that yearly open price around 19k in my opinion. By that point smart money will look to catapult BTC back towards ATH over the next couple of years. Survive the next 6-9 months and the patient shall be rewarded, we see it with every cycle.
by ProR35
Month on Month US Inflation Harmonically Set to Rise to 1.94%This is a followup to this year-on-year inflation chart idea posted back in June 2022: The YoY US Inflation rate has been on a trend of going down since it tested the 1.414 PCZ of the Bearish Butterfly above, but recently we have seen the MoM rate slow its descent and form a bottoming pattern with MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence at the 200-Month SMA and now we can see that the MACD has crossed positively as the inflation rate has broken out of its recent range. This harmonically puts it into position where we will likely see it at least hit the 0.886 retrace to complete a small bat pattern, but it could go out of control and go as high as the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension area all the way at about 1.94%. One reason I suspect for the sudden stop of the inflationary decline is due to the Fed not raising rates high enough, fast enough, and then keeping them the same for the last few months. It would also seem that the year-on-year inflation rate is setting up for a similar rise, showing Hidden Bullish Divergence at the Moving Averages and likely one that will result in it going to test higher highs to around its 1.414-1.618 PCZ once area once more before ultimately crashing back down from these highs once the Fed starts to go heavy on rate hikes again. Though the timeframe may be shorter than how it is presented on the chart, I do still suspect we will have action resembling what is projected on the chart below until the Fed starts rising rates aggressively again: This does not mean I think stocks will go up, that the dominance of the dollar will go down, or even that I think the consumer credit situation will improve. Instead, I think the rise in inflation will be fueled by energy, import, and export costs, and that this will be very bad for: Stocks, Consumers, REITs, and Banks overall, and that the Bond Yields will continue to rise at an accelerated rate.
ECONOMICS:USIRMMLong
by RizeSenpai
SPY S&P500 ETF Options ahead of the FED Interest Rate DecisionThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%. Moreover, core CPI, at 4.3% year-on-year, has held steady as per expectations. These numbers underscore the persistent inflationary trend we have been witnessing. Such elevated levels of inflation can be concerning for financial markets, as they often lead to higher interest rates. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, there is speculation of another 0.25 basis points rate hike, which would further tighten monetary policy. In light of this, I`m considering the following Puts: September 29, 2023 expiration date, $440 strike price, and $2.25 premium, to align with the bearish sentiment. This strategy could potentially be prudent given the expected market conditions. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant, as market reactions to FOMC decisions can be unpredictable and swift. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
1
Trading Plans for THU. 09/21 - Market Bull Goldilocks No MoreS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/21 As our daily trading plans reinforced before the FOMC meeting yesterday: "...any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell which way this could go until after the FOMC meeting". The unexpectedly hawkish Fed stance drove the markets down and continuing to push it lower this morning. Our published trading plans on Friday, 09/15 stated: "Models continue to indicate that the index has to close above 4507 on a daily close basis to flip to a bullish bias. Between 4460 and 4507, models indicate an indeterminate bias". With the index closing just below the lower end of this range (at 4450.32), these levels are still broadly applicable for this week. This week's 4505 level could be the top for the short term, and the 4507 level needs to be broken above for any meaningful bullishness to return to the markets. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4452, 4421, 4403, or 4376 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4448, 4435, 4416, 4400, or 4367 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4373, and explicit short exits on a break above 4440. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #cpi, #ppi, #FOMC
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
🔥 Bitcoin Bears Taking Over 🚨 After a bad reception of yesterday's FOMC meeting, both the crypto and the stock markets have been selling off. Consequently, BTC has lost the bullish diagonal support that has been helping the bulls, leaving the way open for the bears to step in. In previous analyses I've talked about my bearish longer-term outlook, which naturally still applies. This analysis is a more short-term oriented trade. I think that BTC will visit the September lows of 24.9k again, especially with such heavy losses in the stock markets. Are you bullish or bearish? Share your thoughts in the comments 🙏
Short
by FieryTrading
40