AUDUSDFOMC is set! Rates unchanged and talks of raising rates if necessary, USD is continuing its bullish trend. AU gave an impulse breakdown from supply here with the bullish dollar impact. Look for continued sells on the pull back!
FOMC
FOMC Order And PredictionTargeting sells from 1944-46 area. Golds sudden bullish movement to this price has caught my eye. I believe FOMC will not raise rates, thus I think it will have a huge impact on metals. There could be range up to that 1948, my stop is at 1948.5 with 2 targets 1940 and 1927 which was around the area of 25 key support.
Ive implemented the use of FVG, BOS and CHoCH, Im slightly adjusting the way I trade news, and trying to play it safer with setting orders rather than instant executions.
Overall this trade gives me a 1:1, 1:3.75 R/R. Orders set, lets see how my analysis goes.
🔥 FOMC meeting... Should I be careful? Should I trade?📢 Insight on FOMC meeting:
No need to trade during this meeting. Protect your capital.
Keeping it short this time. Stands for, "Federal Open Market Committee".
Meetings are held 8 times a year. 6 wks apart.
September meeting is crucial. Right after summer ends.
FED gives economic forecasts (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc)
Budget/ debt ceiling discussions/ decisions
Interest rates (mortgage, savings, etc)
Forward guidance (very important, probably what matters the most here).
These decisions will affect the US Dollar, which affects the global economy one way or another.
Volatility for markets, especially if there's new/ unexpected guidance.
Pay attention to the forward guidance today. Everything else may already be "priced in". AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! will react the most.
Good luck & trade safe. No need to jump on any trades during the meeting YOU MAY GET burned (unless you do a straddle I guess). 💯
Trading Plans for WED. 09/20 - The Fed Inflation Fight Still On?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/20
While the interest rate decision of the Fed at this week's meeting is a foregone conclusion, it is the semantics of Chair Powell's presser that the markets are going to obsess over. And, for the right reasons, as any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell which way this could go until after the FOMC meeting.
Our published trading plans on Friday, 09/15 stated: "Models continue to indicate that the index has to close above 4507 on a daily close basis to flip to a bullish bias. Between 4460 and 4507, models indicate an indeterminate bias". These levels are still broadly applicable.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4471, 4463, 4452, 4441, or 4426 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4420, 4437, 4448, 4460, or 4468 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4434, and explicit short exits on a break above 4433. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:01pm EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #cpi, #ppi, #FOMC
THE KOG REPORT: FOMCFOMC – KOG Report:
This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
Immediate resistance stands here at the 1942-45 with a break entail the higher order region which is the completion of the move. Now, if they extend the move, it leads us into extreme level 1960-65 which is the last stand for bears to take over, any potential short, unless broken will likely see a reaction in price. A break of that level will then entail caution.
Immediate support stands at 1930-35 order region. Spike into that level with rejection, again takes us up before any attempt to come down.
In summary, below that higher resistance level and upon a break of order region 1930-35 we have the levels of 1925 and below that 1910. 1925-20 is an important level of support, breaking that level resumes the bearish move that completes way down into the 1900-1904 region.
This will probably last us the rest of the week, so keep an eye on the levels and take note of the range we have illustrated for you. A break either side is needed!
We have the following levels in mind for FOMC:
Resistance:
1947
1955
1962-55
Support:
1931
1926
1919
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Swing trade during the FOMC meetingThe swing in 4H time frame is still in the impulse wave of the daily swing.
The impulse of the 4H time frame swing has started(DB neckline breakout level 83.2500)
Caution :: FOMC meeting on 20 Sep'23 11:30PM IST and the current market price is at the weekly resistance of the ascending triangle pattern.
9/20 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap
This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize.
Market Gauge
🟡 Neutral
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down slightly
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Down a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
World News
It’s Fed day. Rates will remain unchanged, but the market will be focused on the dot plot showing FOMC member’s interest-rate projections.
Key Structures
The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern, with 4470 support and 4552 resistance. 4542 is a multi-month magnet level, and 4496-4505 has been a persistent support since September 6th.
Support Levels
Key support levels for today are 4485 (major), 4470-73 (major), 4460, 4452, 4439 (major), 4433, 4419-24 (major), 4400-04, 4386 (major), 4374, 4366-64, 4355 (major),4343, 4336.
Resistance Levels
Key resistance levels for today are 4496, 4506-08 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4532, 4537, 4542, 4551-56 (major), 4561, 4566, 4573, 4580 (major), 4590, 4597, 4609 (major), 4618, 4624, 4634, 4643, 4647, 4657 (major), 4665 (major).
Trading Plan
Today is FOMC day, notorious for its volatility. The plan is to trade light, preferably not trading the action after the meeting at all, especially if a level-to-level piece can be taken before. The key supports to watch are 4485 and 4470-73. If 4470-73 cracks sustainably, we could see a violent, sustained leg down. All longs after that are high-risk knife catches to be done at your own discretion.
Wrap Up
Today is FOMC day, so the market is poised for volatility. The key is to take it light, protect profits, and watch. On a regular day, the lean would be that ES can base above 4485 (4470-73 lowest), then pop higher to 4506-08, 4515, dip, then push back up towards triangle resistance. If 4470 fails, down we go.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
ES FOMC INTEREST RATE IDEA (LEAKED FROM *SMART MONEY*)bullish idea, there's lots of space to the upside and plenty of orders to take off the initial news burst. as long as we move up follow the plan. if we move down, and only if you are not already in a position, i'd take smaller longs and add later only if it comes back to the initial idea.
if price falls to the depths of hell, well, fine. just short the first pull back and come off break even for the day and wrap it up no hard feelings. keep it easy guys it aint stressful for real.
delete this message after you read it they are watching your activity nvm this message will self destruct
USD Index: Breakdown before the FOMCToday's focus: USD Index
Pattern – Nill
Support – 105.00 - 104.45
Resistance – 105.10 - 105.55
Thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we have run over the USD Index, breaking down the overall price picture, levels, and patterns and incorporating moving average and RSI into the analysis.
The USD index sits in an interesting spot with the FOMC to come. Price still sits in its uptrend, and we saw a nice fightback yesterday from buyers after sellers were once again rejected below 105. price also looks to be losing some upward momentum, and the RSI is also warning us of this, with divergence forming on the RSI.
A lot could come down to the FOMC. If we see a hawkish tone, could we see a new move by buyers to test the 105.55 resistance? On the other hand, if it is more to the doveish side, the momentum warnings could come true, and we may see a new test lower by sellers.
Sorry that today's update is a touch this way or that way, but it looks like the market is waiting for some direction in the short term.
The fund's rate, projections and statement are due at 4:00 a.m. AEST Thursday morning.
Have a great day and good trading.
EUR/USD falters around its 2023 open price, ahead of FOMCYes, EUR/USD has fallen to a key support level around the May low. And that will likely deter some bears around current levels from entering short (depending on their timeframe). But given the potential for for the Fed to deliver a more hawkish message than money markets are pricing in whilst the ECB suggest they are done tightening, we're not discounting the potential for EUR/USD to break lower.
The daily trend remains bearish and a shooting star formed following a 2-day retracement higher. Its high perfectly respected a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before the day closed back beneath 1.070.
But what has really caught our eye is that prices also faltered around the 2023 open price. And that means the euro really has gone nowhere this year, and the market is paying attention to that open price.
Given the corrective price action on the 1-hour chart, we'd prefer to fade into move up towards or around 1.0700 for a move back towards those lows.
The bias remains bearish below 1.0730 (although keep in mind extra levels of volatility around the FOMC meeting can mess with such levels before the real move begins).
USDCAD: Sideways, but down!Expecting USD weakness this week, and continued CAD strength due to Oil and good fundamentals.
Not much else to say here, great RR on this move if it comes off!
18/09/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $26894.1
Last weeks low: $25873.8
Midpoint: $24853.5
After CPI and PPI news events that took place last week, we can see a clear uptrend after a deviation below the midpoint, then a reclaim and a move up higher.
This week we have FOMC and the interest rate decision. The forecast is for the interest rate to remain the same at 5.50%. This decision has been priced in IMO but that doesn't rule out any potential whipsawing in the minutes up to and following the decision, we also have the press conference that can give some volatility too. However, if last weeks news events are anything to go by the volatility will be low compared to previous FOMC's.
The bigger picture plan stays the same for me, I do think we're moving towards that yearly open retest before thinking about the run up to the halving and the bullrun beyond. A retest of 28k resistance with a bearish reaction off that level would further add confluence to this idea. As for now staying patient and looking for opportunities outside of the choppy price action.
inflation & yieldsThe Us 10 Year yield is one of the most important yields to follow.
It greatly impacts long term investment decisions in a vast array of markets; stocks, bonds, real estate.
A clear technical breakout is being observed & this could mean inflation is becoming entrenched.
Yields have a tendency to rally in parabolic fashion. if this breakout holds we can likely expect higher rates.
THE KOG REPORT:KOG REPORT:
In last weeks KOG Report, we said the ideal trade for the week would be to capture that long trade at the beginning of the week to then assess the price action, and short the market back down. For the early session we didn’t get the 1910-12 support level but managed 1916 up into the order region where we then shorted the market as illustrated down into the levels identified. For CPI, we updated our traders with the Excalibur hot spots for the long trade back up, which we would now say has also been fulfilled.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
We have FOMC this week so we’re very likely to experience choppy price action together with ranging for the first half of the week. For that reason, please be careful if we do range, don’t get trapped mid-range and try to control your lot sizes while the market accumulated orders. We have a range in mind 1915-13 support with 1930-35 order region resistance. We will be looking at these levels to either long the market, or to short the market pre-event! By Tuesday, ideally, we don’t want to be in an Gold trades in preparation for FOMC, for which we will we publish our usual report with what to look for.
We’re going to keep the KOG Report short this week as we’ll go in more detail for FOMC, and of course we will update traders daily with the key levels and KOG’s trusted Bias for the week.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
A look back and forward to w/c 18th September #TradewithDaveIn the latest #TradewithDave update we consider some of this week’s big events, and take a look at what’s happening in the week beginning 18th September.
US inflation
We had the latest updates on US inflation in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Producer Price Index (PPI). While mixed overall, both reports showed some upside surprises, with Headline year-on-year CPI and month-on-month PPI both coming in hotter than expected. Despite fears that higher inflation could lead to the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates further, all the major US stock indices have continued to rally. In addition, the probability that the US Federal Reserve will announce ‘no change’ to its key Fed Funds rate this coming Wednesday barely moved. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there’s a 97% chance that the upper band will remain at 5.50%. We also had the ARM IPO, the biggest initial public offering in two years. The shares were priced at $51 each, valuing the company at $54 billion. It was considered a great success as the stock rallied 25% to close at $63.59 on the first day of trading.
Tesla – rubber hits the road again
Tesla rallied sharply on Monday, ending the session up 10% following an upgrade from Morgan Stanley. Tesla has recovered substantially this year following a drastic sell-off in 2022 on the back of the US Federal Reserve’s programme of aggressive rate hikes. But it suffered a sharp reversal between mid-July and mid-August. Since then, it appears to have found its footing once again. It is up 170% so far this year, trading above $270 per share. But this remains well below the all-time high of $418 hit in November 2021.
Check out Tesla…
Talking of cars…
The US auto sector is in focus as negotiations between major manufacturers Ford, General Motors and Stellantis and the UAW union appear to have broken down. Tensions between the two sides have been mounting as the switch to Electric Vehicles (EVs) has dramatically changed manufacturing priorities. In particular, the move away from making and installing internal combustion engines, in favour of large battery packs. This has resulted in a reliance on battery factories which tend to be ununionized. At the time of writing, around 13,000 workers across all three auto companies have gone on strike. Without a rapid settlement, this has the potential to contribute to a sizeable hit to US growth. Ford and General Motors are both down around 19% since early July, while Stellantis has lost around 10% over the past two months.
Check out Ford…
Apple suffers a setback
Along with many tech stocks, Apple has made back a significant proportion of the fall in its share price during 2022. It rose around 60% from the beginning of this year to mid-July, when it hit a fresh record high around $198, before pulling back sharply over the following month. We then saw it rally again into early September before it slumped 8.5% in two days. This followed reports from the Wall Street Journal that China had banned the use of iPhones by central government officials. The news was denied this week by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning. But the White House said they were following events with concern, and that China’s actions appear to be ‘aggressive and inappropriate corporate retaliation. Apple doesn’t disclose iPhone sales by country, but research firm TechInsights estimates that there were more iPhone sales in China than in the US last quarter. Despite this pull-back in the share price, Apple remains the largest company in the world by market capitalisation.
Check out Apple…
🔸 Looking ahead to next week
Keeping an eye on ARM
The ARM IPO has been hailed as a sign that the new listings market is bursting back to life after a difficult year in 2022. Indeed, several other companies have announced their intentions to go public including the grocery delivery company Instacart, marketing data concern Klavigo and posh sandal-maker Birkenstock. There are now hopes that the IPO market will really take off in 2024.
Central Banks
Other important events next week include the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last monetary policy meeting, CPI updates from the Eurozone, Canada and the UK, and interest rate decisions from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank.
The US Federal Reserve
But the biggest event in the calendar by far is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting which concludes on Wednesday evening. As noted previously, the probability of no change in interest rates stands at 97%. However, this is the first FOMC meeting since July when the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points. It’s also a quarterly meeting which means we’ll see the release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. This is where individual members of the FOMC provide their forecasts for inflation, the Fed Funds rate, GDP and unemployment for the rest of this year and beyond. Everyone will be looking for any changes from the last summary in June to provide clues to the Fed’s thinking. Could they now signal that they have raised rates enough, or will they once again caution that inflation could rise again? On top of this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also hold a press conference which may give further insight into the Fed’s frame of mind.
What to expect in FOMC meeting on 19/20 Sep'23The market looks bullish in daily time frame.
The FOMC meeting on 19/20 Sep'23 is expected the pause the interest rate at 5.50%, which keeps the USDINR less volatile. If the interest rate is increased USDINR will be bullish.
There is 3 more trading sessions to decide the direction.
www.federalreserve.gov
www.forexfactory.com
www.nseindia.com
USDJPY Bearish swing trade Hi traders,
USDJPY has been bearish since last month after rejecting on a major resistance, we waited for a pullback to enter. Our pullback is almost complete. We now expect the USDJPY to continue plummeting from this price to meet our trendline on the monthly timeframe.
Disclaimer
NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
DXY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today’s trading session we are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 103.700 zone, DXY was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 103.700 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
📈MY TAKE ON THE FED, INFLATION AND CREDIT📊
TLDR: I think the price increase we are seeing is not inflation, the economy is going from bad to worse and the FED's actions don't make any sense.
At the peak of the great inflation of the 70s in USA while both long and short term interest rates were going up together with inflation, so was the aggregate credit.
In fact loans to businesses were growing faster than inflation.
Whereas now, while the short term rates are going up the aggregate credit is going down. Businesses aren’t borrowing and the banks aren’t lending.
And as it was established by Milton Friedman, inflation is exclusively a MONETARY phenomenon.
Therefore price increase followed by unchanged or decreased aggregate credit in not inflation. Which is exactly what we are seeing right now.
It might be attributed to the ongoing effects of the Covid era supply shock which created long lasting bottlenecks, the war in Ukraine or some other fundamental systemic economic problem but it’s not conventional inflation which means that raising interest rates will do nothing but further damage the already weak economy (which is reflected in the unprecedented drop in demand for credit)
So, the further rate hikes that were hinted yesterday by the FED don’t make any sense and we should be expecting a fast race to the zero with more QE when the economic sh*t hits the political fan.
But, let’s wait and see.
Gold, what to come from it over FOMC minutes?Gold is stuck below the trendline resistance and bulls need to see a move lower in the US Dollar.
GBP/JPY bulls remain in charge on central bank divergence GBP/JPY bulls remain in charge on central bank divergence, but the FOMC minutes could sway things one way or the other as explained in this video.
FOMC minutes to weigh on elevated DXY?The FOMC kept the door open for the possibility of additional rate hikes in July following its last decision to hike. While the Fed prefers to retain optionality, some expect that July's was the last rate hike of the tightening cycle. If the minutes reflect policy discussions among Fed officials are entertaining the possibility of pausing going forward, then with the DXY that is pretty elevated on hawkish sentiment, will it flip today?
Watchlist creation for New York, FOMC minsFOMC mins are up today as the highlight and Aussie jobs. We have a number of potential setups for the day ahead as the video shows in Gold, DXY, EUR/USD, AUD, Yen and the indices such as US30, 100 and SP500.
