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FOMC

Month on Month US Inflation Harmonically Set to Rise to 1.94%This is a followup to this year-on-year inflation chart idea posted back in June 2022: The YoY US Inflation rate has been on a trend of going down since it tested the 1.414 PCZ of the Bearish Butterfly above, but recently we have seen the MoM rate slow its descent and form a bottoming pattern with MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence at the 200-Month SMA and now we can see that the MACD has crossed positively as the inflation rate has broken out of its recent range. This harmonically puts it into position where we will likely see it at least hit the 0.886 retrace to complete a small bat pattern, but it could go out of control and go as high as the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension area all the way at about 1.94%. One reason I suspect for the sudden stop of the inflationary decline is due to the Fed not raising rates high enough, fast enough, and then keeping them the same for the last few months. It would also seem that the year-on-year inflation rate is setting up for a similar rise, showing Hidden Bullish Divergence at the Moving Averages and likely one that will result in it going to test higher highs to around its 1.414-1.618 PCZ once area once more before ultimately crashing back down from these highs once the Fed starts to go heavy on rate hikes again. Though the timeframe may be shorter than how it is presented on the chart, I do still suspect we will have action resembling what is projected on the chart below until the Fed starts rising rates aggressively again: This does not mean I think stocks will go up, that the dominance of the dollar will go down, or even that I think the consumer credit situation will improve. Instead, I think the rise in inflation will be fueled by energy, import, and export costs, and that this will be very bad for: Stocks, Consumers, REITs, and Banks overall, and that the Bond Yields will continue to rise at an accelerated rate.
ECONOMICS:USIRMMLong
by RizeSenpai
SPY S&P500 ETF Options ahead of the FED Interest Rate DecisionThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%. Moreover, core CPI, at 4.3% year-on-year, has held steady as per expectations. These numbers underscore the persistent inflationary trend we have been witnessing. Such elevated levels of inflation can be concerning for financial markets, as they often lead to higher interest rates. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, there is speculation of another 0.25 basis points rate hike, which would further tighten monetary policy. In light of this, I`m considering the following Puts: September 29, 2023 expiration date, $440 strike price, and $2.25 premium, to align with the bearish sentiment. This strategy could potentially be prudent given the expected market conditions. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant, as market reactions to FOMC decisions can be unpredictable and swift. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
1
Trading Plans for THU. 09/21 - Market Bull Goldilocks No MoreS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/21 As our daily trading plans reinforced before the FOMC meeting yesterday: "...any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell which way this could go until after the FOMC meeting". The unexpectedly hawkish Fed stance drove the markets down and continuing to push it lower this morning. Our published trading plans on Friday, 09/15 stated: "Models continue to indicate that the index has to close above 4507 on a daily close basis to flip to a bullish bias. Between 4460 and 4507, models indicate an indeterminate bias". With the index closing just below the lower end of this range (at 4450.32), these levels are still broadly applicable for this week. This week's 4505 level could be the top for the short term, and the 4507 level needs to be broken above for any meaningful bullishness to return to the markets. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4452, 4421, 4403, or 4376 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4448, 4435, 4416, 4400, or 4367 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4373, and explicit short exits on a break above 4440. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #cpi, #ppi, #FOMC
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
🔥 Bitcoin Bears Taking Over 🚨 After a bad reception of yesterday's FOMC meeting, both the crypto and the stock markets have been selling off. Consequently, BTC has lost the bullish diagonal support that has been helping the bulls, leaving the way open for the bears to step in. In previous analyses I've talked about my bearish longer-term outlook, which naturally still applies. This analysis is a more short-term oriented trade. I think that BTC will visit the September lows of 24.9k again, especially with such heavy losses in the stock markets. Are you bullish or bearish? Share your thoughts in the comments 🙏
Short
by FieryTrading
40
FOMC Order And PredictionTargeting sells from 1944-46 area. Golds sudden bullish movement to this price has caught my eye. I believe FOMC will not raise rates, thus I think it will have a huge impact on metals. There could be range up to that 1948, my stop is at 1948.5 with 2 targets 1940 and 1927 which was around the area of 25 key support. Ive implemented the use of FVG, BOS and CHoCH, Im slightly adjusting the way I trade news, and trying to play it safer with setting orders rather than instant executions. Overall this trade gives me a 1:1, 1:3.75 R/R. Orders set, lets see how my analysis goes.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by xEthan
🔥 FOMC meeting... Should I be careful? Should I trade?📢 Insight on FOMC meeting: No need to trade during this meeting. Protect your capital. Keeping it short this time. Stands for, "Federal Open Market Committee". Meetings are held 8 times a year. 6 wks apart. September meeting is crucial. Right after summer ends. FED gives economic forecasts (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc) Budget/ debt ceiling discussions/ decisions Interest rates (mortgage, savings, etc) Forward guidance (very important, probably what matters the most here). These decisions will affect the US Dollar, which affects the global economy one way or another. Volatility for markets, especially if there's new/ unexpected guidance. Pay attention to the forward guidance today. Everything else may already be "priced in". AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! will react the most. Good luck & trade safe. No need to jump on any trades during the meeting YOU MAY GET burned (unless you do a straddle I guess). 💯
CME_MINI:ES1!
by kingdips
Trading Plans for WED. 09/20 - The Fed Inflation Fight Still On?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/20 While the interest rate decision of the Fed at this week's meeting is a foregone conclusion, it is the semantics of Chair Powell's presser that the markets are going to obsess over. And, for the right reasons, as any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell which way this could go until after the FOMC meeting. Our published trading plans on Friday, 09/15 stated: "Models continue to indicate that the index has to close above 4507 on a daily close basis to flip to a bullish bias. Between 4460 and 4507, models indicate an indeterminate bias". These levels are still broadly applicable. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4471, 4463, 4452, 4441, or 4426 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4420, 4437, 4448, 4460, or 4468 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4434, and explicit short exits on a break above 4433. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #cpi, #ppi, #FOMC
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
THE KOG REPORT: FOMCFOMC – KOG Report: This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Immediate resistance stands here at the 1942-45 with a break entail the higher order region which is the completion of the move. Now, if they extend the move, it leads us into extreme level 1960-65 which is the last stand for bears to take over, any potential short, unless broken will likely see a reaction in price. A break of that level will then entail caution. Immediate support stands at 1930-35 order region. Spike into that level with rejection, again takes us up before any attempt to come down. In summary, below that higher resistance level and upon a break of order region 1930-35 we have the levels of 1925 and below that 1910. 1925-20 is an important level of support, breaking that level resumes the bearish move that completes way down into the 1900-1904 region. This will probably last us the rest of the week, so keep an eye on the levels and take note of the range we have illustrated for you. A break either side is needed! We have the following levels in mind for FOMC: Resistance: 1947 1955 1962-55 Support: 1931 1926 1919 Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
9/20 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down slightly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down a bit 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World News It’s Fed day. Rates will remain unchanged, but the market will be focused on the dot plot showing FOMC member’s interest-rate projections. Key Structures The large, multi-month triangle in yellow remains the primary pattern, with 4470 support and 4552 resistance. 4542 is a multi-month magnet level, and 4496-4505 has been a persistent support since September 6th. Support Levels Key support levels for today are 4485 (major), 4470-73 (major), 4460, 4452, 4439 (major), 4433, 4419-24 (major), 4400-04, 4386 (major), 4374, 4366-64, 4355 (major),4343, 4336. Resistance Levels Key resistance levels for today are 4496, 4506-08 (major), 4515 (major), 4522, 4532, 4537, 4542, 4551-56 (major), 4561, 4566, 4573, 4580 (major), 4590, 4597, 4609 (major), 4618, 4624, 4634, 4643, 4647, 4657 (major), 4665 (major). Trading Plan Today is FOMC day, notorious for its volatility. The plan is to trade light, preferably not trading the action after the meeting at all, especially if a level-to-level piece can be taken before. The key supports to watch are 4485 and 4470-73. If 4470-73 cracks sustainably, we could see a violent, sustained leg down. All longs after that are high-risk knife catches to be done at your own discretion. Wrap Up Today is FOMC day, so the market is poised for volatility. The key is to take it light, protect profits, and watch. On a regular day, the lean would be that ES can base above 4485 (4470-73 lowest), then pop higher to 4506-08, 4515, dip, then push back up towards triangle resistance. If 4470 fails, down we go. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
ES FOMC INTEREST RATE IDEA (LEAKED FROM *SMART MONEY*)bullish idea, there's lots of space to the upside and plenty of orders to take off the initial news burst. as long as we move up follow the plan. if we move down, and only if you are not already in a position, i'd take smaller longs and add later only if it comes back to the initial idea. if price falls to the depths of hell, well, fine. just short the first pull back and come off break even for the day and wrap it up no hard feelings. keep it easy guys it aint stressful for real. delete this message after you read it they are watching your activity nvm this message will self destruct
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Claybo
1
USD Index: Breakdown before the FOMCToday's focus: USD Index Pattern – Nill Support – 105.00 - 104.45 Resistance – 105.10 - 105.55 Thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we have run over the USD Index, breaking down the overall price picture, levels, and patterns and incorporating moving average and RSI into the analysis. The USD index sits in an interesting spot with the FOMC to come. Price still sits in its uptrend, and we saw a nice fightback yesterday from buyers after sellers were once again rejected below 105. price also looks to be losing some upward momentum, and the RSI is also warning us of this, with divergence forming on the RSI. A lot could come down to the FOMC. If we see a hawkish tone, could we see a new move by buyers to test the 105.55 resistance? On the other hand, if it is more to the doveish side, the momentum warnings could come true, and we may see a new test lower by sellers. Sorry that today's update is a touch this way or that way, but it looks like the market is waiting for some direction in the short term. The fund's rate, projections and statement are due at 4:00 a.m. AEST Thursday morning. Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Eightcap
EUR/USD falters around its 2023 open price, ahead of FOMCYes, EUR/USD has fallen to a key support level around the May low. And that will likely deter some bears around current levels from entering short (depending on their timeframe). But given the potential for for the Fed to deliver a more hawkish message than money markets are pricing in whilst the ECB suggest they are done tightening, we're not discounting the potential for EUR/USD to break lower. The daily trend remains bearish and a shooting star formed following a 2-day retracement higher. Its high perfectly respected a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before the day closed back beneath 1.070. But what has really caught our eye is that prices also faltered around the 2023 open price. And that means the euro really has gone nowhere this year, and the market is paying attention to that open price. Given the corrective price action on the 1-hour chart, we'd prefer to fade into move up towards or around 1.0700 for a move back towards those lows. The bias remains bearish below 1.0730 (although keep in mind extra levels of volatility around the FOMC meeting can mess with such levels before the real move begins).
Short
by CityIndex
1
18/09/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $26894.1 Last weeks low: $25873.8 Midpoint: $24853.5 After CPI and PPI news events that took place last week, we can see a clear uptrend after a deviation below the midpoint, then a reclaim and a move up higher. This week we have FOMC and the interest rate decision. The forecast is for the interest rate to remain the same at 5.50%. This decision has been priced in IMO but that doesn't rule out any potential whipsawing in the minutes up to and following the decision, we also have the press conference that can give some volatility too. However, if last weeks news events are anything to go by the volatility will be low compared to previous FOMC's. The bigger picture plan stays the same for me, I do think we're moving towards that yearly open retest before thinking about the run up to the halving and the bullrun beyond. A retest of 28k resistance with a bearish reaction off that level would further add confluence to this idea. As for now staying patient and looking for opportunities outside of the choppy price action.
by ProR35
THE KOG REPORT:KOG REPORT: In last weeks KOG Report, we said the ideal trade for the week would be to capture that long trade at the beginning of the week to then assess the price action, and short the market back down. For the early session we didn’t get the 1910-12 support level but managed 1916 up into the order region where we then shorted the market as illustrated down into the levels identified. For CPI, we updated our traders with the Excalibur hot spots for the long trade back up, which we would now say has also been fulfilled. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? We have FOMC this week so we’re very likely to experience choppy price action together with ranging for the first half of the week. For that reason, please be careful if we do range, don’t get trapped mid-range and try to control your lot sizes while the market accumulated orders. We have a range in mind 1915-13 support with 1930-35 order region resistance. We will be looking at these levels to either long the market, or to short the market pre-event! By Tuesday, ideally, we don’t want to be in an Gold trades in preparation for FOMC, for which we will we publish our usual report with what to look for. We’re going to keep the KOG Report short this week as we’ll go in more detail for FOMC, and of course we will update traders daily with the key levels and KOG’s trusted Bias for the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
14
A look back and forward to w/c 18th September #TradewithDaveIn the latest #TradewithDave update we consider some of this week’s big events, and take a look at what’s happening in the week beginning 18th September. US inflation We had the latest updates on US inflation in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Producer Price Index (PPI). While mixed overall, both reports showed some upside surprises, with Headline year-on-year CPI and month-on-month PPI both coming in hotter than expected. Despite fears that higher inflation could lead to the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates further, all the major US stock indices have continued to rally. In addition, the probability that the US Federal Reserve will announce ‘no change’ to its key Fed Funds rate this coming Wednesday barely moved. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there’s a 97% chance that the upper band will remain at 5.50%. We also had the ARM IPO, the biggest initial public offering in two years. The shares were priced at $51 each, valuing the company at $54 billion. It was considered a great success as the stock rallied 25% to close at $63.59 on the first day of trading. Tesla – rubber hits the road again Tesla rallied sharply on Monday, ending the session up 10% following an upgrade from Morgan Stanley. Tesla has recovered substantially this year following a drastic sell-off in 2022 on the back of the US Federal Reserve’s programme of aggressive rate hikes. But it suffered a sharp reversal between mid-July and mid-August. Since then, it appears to have found its footing once again. It is up 170% so far this year, trading above $270 per share. But this remains well below the all-time high of $418 hit in November 2021. Check out Tesla… Talking of cars… The US auto sector is in focus as negotiations between major manufacturers Ford, General Motors and Stellantis and the UAW union appear to have broken down. Tensions between the two sides have been mounting as the switch to Electric Vehicles (EVs) has dramatically changed manufacturing priorities. In particular, the move away from making and installing internal combustion engines, in favour of large battery packs. This has resulted in a reliance on battery factories which tend to be ununionized. At the time of writing, around 13,000 workers across all three auto companies have gone on strike. Without a rapid settlement, this has the potential to contribute to a sizeable hit to US growth. Ford and General Motors are both down around 19% since early July, while Stellantis has lost around 10% over the past two months. Check out Ford… Apple suffers a setback Along with many tech stocks, Apple has made back a significant proportion of the fall in its share price during 2022. It rose around 60% from the beginning of this year to mid-July, when it hit a fresh record high around $198, before pulling back sharply over the following month. We then saw it rally again into early September before it slumped 8.5% in two days. This followed reports from the Wall Street Journal that China had banned the use of iPhones by central government officials. The news was denied this week by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning. But the White House said they were following events with concern, and that China’s actions appear to be ‘aggressive and inappropriate corporate retaliation. Apple doesn’t disclose iPhone sales by country, but research firm TechInsights estimates that there were more iPhone sales in China than in the US last quarter. Despite this pull-back in the share price, Apple remains the largest company in the world by market capitalisation. Check out Apple… 🔸 Looking ahead to next week Keeping an eye on ARM The ARM IPO has been hailed as a sign that the new listings market is bursting back to life after a difficult year in 2022. Indeed, several other companies have announced their intentions to go public including the grocery delivery company Instacart, marketing data concern Klavigo and posh sandal-maker Birkenstock. There are now hopes that the IPO market will really take off in 2024. Central Banks Other important events next week include the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last monetary policy meeting, CPI updates from the Eurozone, Canada and the UK, and interest rate decisions from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank. The US Federal Reserve But the biggest event in the calendar by far is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting which concludes on Wednesday evening. As noted previously, the probability of no change in interest rates stands at 97%. However, this is the first FOMC meeting since July when the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points. It’s also a quarterly meeting which means we’ll see the release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. This is where individual members of the FOMC provide their forecasts for inflation, the Fed Funds rate, GDP and unemployment for the rest of this year and beyond. Everyone will be looking for any changes from the last summary in June to provide clues to the Fed’s thinking. Could they now signal that they have raised rates enough, or will they once again caution that inflation could rise again? On top of this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also hold a press conference which may give further insight into the Fed’s frame of mind.
SP:SPX
by TradeNation
USDJPY Bearish swing trade Hi traders, USDJPY has been bearish since last month after rejecting on a major resistance, we waited for a pullback to enter. Our pullback is almost complete. We now expect the USDJPY to continue plummeting from this price to meet our trendline on the monthly timeframe. Disclaimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
Short
by Mezzoforte_Privilege