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SPY Levels - CGG Newsletter 08/13-18/2023Upside: 448.06 → 448.92 → 450.48 → 451.70 → 453.07 Downside 443.97 → 442.97 → 441.98 → 441.08 → 439.46 Technical Analysis: Since making yearly lows in March, SPY has been in a larger uptrend channel, with its last higher high peaking in July. Since making this high SPY has made a downwards channel on the daily inside the larger upwards chanel, and looks to make a higher high soon on the green uptrend line. A great spot for it to bounce is coming soon. With any sign of weakness, SPY looks ready to fillthe samll gap it made from July 11-12, which should be filled at 442.97. Under this gap we have the long GP from 441.08-441.98 along with a strong daily level at 441.21. I would look to go long in this area. If we get a bounce we will look to see if we can break over last week's high of 451.70. If we can reclaim some bullish momentum, I would expect us to test the gap above (453.52-455.49), or at least get close as we have the SHORT GP from 453.29-453.81 we can target to the upside for bulls. Failure to hold above 441.21 changes my macro view, and I would flip bearish, but my general lean is bullish going into next thursday's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
AMEX:SPYLong
by peterjames_6
USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵 - Breakout imminentHi Traders, at USDJPY we are close before a massive long breakout. But for sure we have to watch the economic data.... WEEKLY FUNDAMENTALS 🗓 Watch out the Economic Calender for week 33/2023 👀… ℹ️Important economic data: Tuesday: Retail Sales 🇺🇸 Wednesday: RBNZ Interest rate decision🇳🇿, FOMC minutes 🇺🇸 Thursday: Philly FED Index 🇺🇸 Friday: CPI EU 🇪🇺 FOMC Minutes this week 🇺🇸🇺🇸 Before markets start turning their attention to the Fed’s annual get together in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the end of the month, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes from the central bank’s July policy meeting. The FED raised rates by 25 basis points last month and left the door open to another hike in September. The minutes will help investors gauge the appetite for further rate increases, although markets are betting on a pause in September. Data last week showed that while U.S. consumer and producer prices increased moderately in July the overall trend indicated that inflationary pressures are easing. The U.S. central bank has increased interest rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to bring inflation back down to its 2% goal. Chart USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵 If the market will break through the resistance at 145.000 there will be likely a lot of short stops liquidated which might cause another long movement. Wish you all a great trading week! Team tegsasFX
Long
by tegasFX
USDCAD complete guide! LONG-TERM Buyers around 1.3500 were in great loss previously! psychologically most of them will close their long orders around the place they have entered! Shorter term buyers seen their SL hit! The broken OB- was a great liquidity hunt trap for traders with small SL. NOTE: FOMC members Bowman and Harker speaks could have almost small effect on market. follow it if a game changer speaks, if you hear a surprise in favor of the dollar's strength, either cancel this trade or proceed with less risk. We will start trading both at these prices and in the specified zone before and after Bowman's speech
Short
by AliSignals
2
Crunch time for DXY - Big Day Friday!I never trade DXY but I always have a tab open, I find this really useful when trading many pairs. My current take on the Fed and the US economy is: They were the first to respond to growing inflation Their tightening has led to interest rates of 5.5% (only matched by BNZ) They've hawkishly indicated more hike(s) Consumer confidence numbers this week were strong, in spite of this Jobless claims continue to beat target GDP for June smashed target (2.4% up from 2%, despite forecasted reduction to 1.8%) Inflation is now 2.97%, really low compared to others It's looking very much like a soft landing Whilst at the same time: ECB interest rate held at 4.25% with inflation at 6.4% BoJ interest rate held at -0.1% with inflation at 3.3% Swiss inflation is 1.7% with interest rates at 1.75% BOA interest rate held at 4.1% with inflation at 6% BNZ interest rate held at 5.5% with inflation 6.7% BoE decision this week, currently 5%, +0.25% priced in, but Dovish talk and highest inflation (7.95%) So, I can't fail to see positive fundamentals from the USA, in comparison with almost everyone else? I also think that because they moved fast and got a grip of things, unlike anyone else, they can still afford to hike without screwing their economy, unlike BoE and BNZ for instance who I believe are heading into big recessions - high interest will get to a point where it's as harmful as high inflation and will make the situation worse for the economy. That all said, until the news this week, DXY has been on huge downtrend from it's highs, and it will take something special to break through the descending trendline around 102. If it breaks this could be the start of a reversal if positively retested. Like I say I don't trade DXY, but I've learned to always have it in my sights, you have to be mindful of big DXY shifts as it has an impact on many other crosses (not just USD ones). For instance the big move this week with the Thursday data had a huge effect across the board, fortunately I was expecting it... We have a big indecision doji candle for Friday, however, off the back of last week being positive for the USD and negative for other currencies that make up the basket, I do think the dollar will court the trendline for this week, and we'll probably see a false breakout! On the 4hr I'm seeing short term bullishness, bounce up off the 50% fib for the last bullish move: Whatever, Friday will be a huge day, with NFP and Average Earnings released - I'm expecting DXY will have dropped back a bit by then, I'm expecting good data on Friday, but I don't think it will matter, good or bad it will lure us into a false sense of security and DXY will bounce down, hard with bad data, less so with good data, but regardless - I can't see it punching through on this juncture. As always this is just an opinion, let's see what happens!
TVC:DXYShort
by Finchcliffe
Crunch time for DXY - Friday will be a big day!I never trade DXY but I always have a tab open, I find this really useful when trading many pairs. My current take on the Fed and the US economy is: They were the first to respond to growing inflation Their tightening has led to interest rates of 5.5% (only matched by BNZ) They've hawkishly indicated more hike(s) Consumer confidence numbers this week were strong, in spite of this Jobless claims continue to beat target GDP for June smashed target (2.4% up from 2%, despite forecasted reduction to 1.8%) Inflation is now 2.97%, really low compared to others It's looking very much like a soft landing Whilst at the same time: ECB interest rate held at 4.25% with inflation at 6.4% BoJ interest rate held at -0.1% with inflation at 3.3% Swiss inflation is 1.7% with interest rates at 1.75% BOA interest rate held at 4.1% with inflation at 6% BNZ interest rate held at 5.5% with inflation 6.7% BoE decision this week, currently 5%, +0.25% priced in, but Dovish talk and highest inflation (7.95%) So, I can't fail to see super positive fundamentals from the USA, in comparison with almost everyone else? I also think that because they moved fast and got a grip of things, unlike anyone else, they can still afford to hike without screwing their economy, unlike BoE and BNZ for instance who I believe are heading into big recessions - high interest will get to a point where it's as harmful as high inflation and will make the situation worse for the economy. That all said, until the news this week, DXY has been on huge downtrend from it's highs, and it will take something special to break through the descending trendline around 102. If it breaks this could be the start of a reversal if positively retested. Like I say I don't trade DXY, but I've learned to always have it in my sights, you have to be mindful of big DXY shifts as it has an impact on many other crosses (not just USD ones). For instance the big move this week with the Thursday data had a huge effect across the board, fortunately I was expecting it... We have a big indecision doji candle for Friday, however, off the back of last week being positive for the USD and negative for other currencies that make up the basket, I do think the dollar will court the trendline for this week, and we'll probably see a false breakout! On the 4hr I'm seeing short term bullishness, bounce up off the 50% fib for the last bullish move: Whatever, Friday will be a huge day, with NFP and Average Earnings released - I'm expecting DXY will have dropped back a bit by then, I'm expecting good data on Friday, but I don't think it will matter, good or bad it will lure us into a false sense of security and DXY will bounce down, hard with bad data, less so with good data, but regardless - I can't see it punching through on this juncture. As always this is just an opinion, let's see what happens!
PEPPERSTONE:USDXShort
by Finchcliffe
DOLLAR INDEX LONG TO $108📈The DXY is holding up nicely & still expecting a correction towards $108-$109 in the mid term. We can possibly experience fluctuation & volatility, which will be used to take out possible early buyers, but as long as you have a decent sized account, you'll be able to weather the volatility👌 The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25BPS yesterday, so this should strengthen the Dollar in the short to mid term. Drop a like/follow if you agree or let me know your bias✅
TVC:DXYLong
by BA_Investments
1
XAUUSD (Gold): Feel confident selling nowBeen watching Gold for days, trying to work things out. I think we'll see another push up from DXY following FOMC hawkishness last night, it's dancing around the 50% Fib retracement from the last move, this would be positive for gold. With gold, I think we just got a local double top, but generally struggling at current levels, after failing to make a new high, AUD export data not great, also linked to gold. I'm expecting an initial fall down to around 1937 (then could move further back to 1910 / 1900), but does need monitoring closely, as has been super volatile and overall direction still unclear to me atm from here. I think a DXY push will see me hit this initial TP and then let's see what happens from there... I'll wait for NY session to give me more clues
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Finchcliffe
12
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMCFOMC – KOG Report: This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. On Sunday’s KOG Report we said the report would only be applicable for the first half of the week due to FOMC today. We did well with this so will stick with some of the levels from the report for today. We’re going to keep this FOMC Report short this time as we’re not likely to be trading again until tomorrow. For those who are keen to get involved, we’ve highlighted the key levels to look for a reaction in price. The daily is showing a potential swing where a bullish move here can take it up towards testing the 2000 level and slightly above. For that reason, we’ve given the level on the break up towards 2005-8 with the initial hurdle being the 1980-85 level. On the flip, 1975-80 is another level to keep an eye on. We’re not publishing the daily bias today, but this was yesterdays bearish below level with a rejection around here potentially leading to price first attacking the 1945 region and below the 1930-35 order region which was our initial target for the short trades. Illustrated on the chart is the potential path, obviously with the swings, spikes and volatility expected please take it as a guide. We’ll only be looking for extreme levels in Camelot and that, as we said above is probably going to be in the sessions ahead. If you’re new to trading, the trade will come after the event. Please try not to get involved in the pre-event price action, it’s going to chop you in the range before they make the move. Best practice is to come back to the markets tomorrow and look for a clean set up. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
The unpredictability of the FOMC rates decisionWhat you would learn in university: An interest rate hike increases demand, which would lead to higher prices. What you actually see in the markets: The impact on price is not only dependent on the interest rate decision but also the message and sentiment during the press conference, priced in scenarios, future market expectations, economic projections, current price trends, global environment... Overnight, the FOMC has just taken rates to a 22-year high at 5.50% and indicated further increases in September and possibly November (data dependent), and yet the immediate reaction is further weakness in the DXY. Over the previous 6 rate decision releases (5 hikes and 1 hold), the reaction on the DXY has been mixed, either spiking up briefly before fading lower or showing little to no movement. Scalping the news event is getting harder and potentially less profitable (unlike back in the years with Chair Bernanke). The approach short-medium traders should consider adopting is to let the noise clear out and only look to get their trades in days after the event. What do you think?
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
4
BluetonaFX - DXY US Dollar Fragile After FOMCHi Traders! The US dollar is showing signs of fragility after the expected 25 basis point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and the FOMC press conference today due to the ongoing high inflation issues in the US economy. This was reflected in the price action on the DXY 1D chart. The market hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 101.590 to continue the bearish impulsive wave, and the US dollar index might continue down and go back under the 100 level to target the support level at 99.578. There is further data out of the US tomorrow, and if we get further bad news from the US tomorrow, we might possibly get the break below 100. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. We appreciate your support. BluetonaFX
TVC:DXY
by BluetonaFX
🔥 Bitcoin FOMC Bullish Reaction: Wait For ConfirmationThe FOMC meeting has just concluded, and the FED has raised the interest rates with 25 basis points. Since the initial reaction is bullish, I'd like to explore the idea that we're going to see a strong switch in trend from this point onwards. The dotted diagonal resistance is currently the main area that BTC has to break through. Be patience for the break out before considering a bullish entry. Target at the July highs, stop just below the resistance line.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
11