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FOMC

GBPUSD rebounds from trendline support as FOMC looms The pound has enjoyed a day of upside, as the continued struggles in driving down inflation come back into play once again despite recent GBP weakness. The GBPUSD pair looks particularly interesting given the impending FOMC meeting. Markets currently price in a 98% chance of a rate hike today, meaning that the dollar volatility will likely be driven more by the outlook for future hikes than anything else. The pricing for another hike before year-end stands at 35%, with 65% expecting that we will be one and done today. A nod towards another likely hike this year could provide strength for the dollar, while a more dovish stance could bring fresh dollar weakness. The GBPUSD pair has rebounded significantly from trendline support, which has been accompanied by the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. The wider bullish trend therefore looks likely to persist. As such, further strength looks likely from here. A break through Fibonacci and trendline support would be required to start building a more bearish picture.
Long
by ScopeMarkets
Hawkish FOMC, new extension lower for BTC, or?Bitcoin analysis with FMOC to come Today's focus: Bitcoin Pattern – Support break Possible targets – 30,345 US – 27,500 DS Support – 29,092 minor Resistance – 30,344 – 31,360 With the FOMC coming out tomorrow morning and rates expected to rise by 25 points, will we see straight sets with the Fed still remaining hawkish? With Bitcoin looking rather vulnerable at the moment, could that set up a new push back to the main trendline? Or if the Fed is more dovish, could that reignite buyer interests and move price back above the 30k level? Bitcoin broke support recently, and the worry for us is that the market could be looking for any reason to continue lower. A stronger USD could just be enough. That’s the primary point of discussion in today’s video update, but we have also put in mentions of the USD index and gold as they both sit in inappropriate situations atm, with the USD starting to struggle in its comeback rally while gold continues to push at a new continuation. Have a great day and good trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Eightcap
FOMC 26th JulyFOMC is upon us once again which means a high volatility event to prepare for. BTC has fallen out of its 32 day mini range and is looking to close below its local low of ~29.5k. This gets the alarm bells ringing as there is a large FVG waiting below to be filled. A high volatility event such as FOMC can often help in achieving this but it's important to plan for each eventuality. You must plan for what the market does, not what you want it to do. In green we have the bullish buying opportunities I have established, one is a simple range midpoint reaction play. I would like to see a wick below and a reclaim before targeting those range highs once more. If that is not the case another bullish buying opportunity would be the daily bullish OB at 26.5k. This would allow the vast majority of the FVG to be filled and BTC could continue a rally towards local highs and potentially beyond. For a bearish scenario, if price were to continue the downtrend past the midpoint with no significant reaction, this would prompt me to target either the bullish OB, or the range low. These are the key areas for me, there really isn't a lot of good R:R trades in-between in my opinion. At least on the 1D timeframe.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
TLT - is now the time to start accumulating?Long duration treasury ETF's have long been touted as hedges against risk and inflation. However, treasury prices and rates have an inverse relationship. When the US Treasury issues new bonds during a rate hiking cycle, it depresses the prices of the long duration treasuries within these ETFs. Conversely, when rates reach their peak and subsequently start to decline, these ETFs will hold treasuries with higher rates than the newly issued ones. This explains why we see TLT price increasing in a low rate environment and decreasing in a rising rate environment. If we are near the conclusion of this rate hiking cycle we should see a little more consolidation in TLT, followed by price increase. I have been and will continue to add to my position anytime we are close to $100 during this consolidation. I'll begin to take profit $112-114 and then re-evaluation market conditions.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Ben_1148x2
3
🔥 Bitcoin In Danger 🚨 Bearish Divergence Playing Out!Last week I made an analysis on BTC's bearish divergence on the 3-day chart. Seeing the bearish price action we got recently, it seems that this bearish divergence is playing out well. In my eyes, it's very likely that BTC will go down from here onwards. Next target is the dotted purple support line. Seeing there's another FOMC interest announcement tomorrow, Bitcoin is in danger of breaking through said support in case the market doesn't like tomorrow's meeting. In that case, my expectation would be that the top for 2023 is in. All eyes on tomorrow.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
14
BluetonaFX - SPX Approaching All-Time HighHi Traders! We are approaching the all-time high on the S&P 500, and traders are eagerly anticipating tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate decision along with the FOMC minutes meeting announcement. Looking at the technical price action on the 1W chart, the market has been in a steady bull market since October 2022. We have drawn the ascending price channel on the chart for you to see. Before the all-time high at 4818.62 (the apex level), there is a resistance level at 4637.30. This level is key because there was a price rejection at this level 16 months ago, and we have not been above it since then. If we get a break and close above 4637.30, then the apex level at 4818.62 is the next target, and if that breaks, then we will be trading in record-breaking territory. On the other side, if 4637.30 holds and there is not a break and close above this level, then the bull market we have had for the past 16 months may be coming to an end, and we may get a pullback to the long-term support level at 4325.28. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. We appreciate your continued support! BluetonaFX
SP:SPX
by BluetonaFX
2
AUDUSD will buyer momentum continue?Today's focus: AUDUSD Pattern – HL Possible targets – 68.11 – 68.85 Support – 67.17 Resistance – 67.75 Could we see further upside from the AUDUSD? Currently price is bouncing off short-term support. This could continue if some of this week's key news goes in favour of risk markets. The USD has had a solid run recently but could any hints at future rant holds set off a new pullback? If so this could be fuel for the AUD to continue its push. Australian CPI is also due out on Thursday, its forecast to come in slightly lower Could a miss also help drive buying? For now, we will continue to watch price as it holds off short-term support with a new HL and see if it can continue to push higher reclaiming some of last week's lost ground. Have a great day and good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
🔥 Bitcoin Indecision Ahead Of FOMC MeetingComing Wednesday there's another FOMC meeting by the FED. Here they will announce what the new interest rates are going to be. While the FED paused last meeting, the expectation is that they will announce another rate hike. My expectation is that BTC will continue to consolidate around the current area, while traders are patiently waiting for the FED's decision. Furthermore, BTC's volatility is extremely low, which indicates that it's preparing for a big move, either up or down. See below for the volatility analysis, currently 3 days in a row extreme low volatility: As seen on the chart, BTC is trading at a very strong area of resistance. The top resistance is an exact copy of the bottom support, creating a parallel channel. With the stock market severely overbought, the market risk is likely to the downside. As long as BTC stays above the yellow support line, the intermediate trend is bullish. A break below this trend line could signal that ~31.8k was the 2023 top. Are you bullish or bearish ahead of the FOMC? Share your thoughts 🙏
Short
by FieryTrading
24
Harmonically, US Interest Rates are Headed Toward 35%The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we are to treat the action of this chart as we'd treat any other chart, then we'd expect that once B gets broken, we'd get an accelerated move all the way up to the Harmonic Completion of a Bearish Shark, which would land us at the 1.13/1.618 Harmonic Confluence Zone up at around 34-35% There have been previous instances where Harmonics have had a predictive quality over data like this, such as the accelerated liquidity exit out of the reverse repo facility, the bond yield charts on multiple occasions, and the US Inflation Rate Charts. Which can all be seen in the related ideas tab if you are skeptical of my use of Harmonic Patterns in this context.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RizeSenpai
Gold Outlook: Vulnerable Dollar and Promising Upside PotentialHey Traders, In tomorrow's upcoming trading session, our keen focus will be on XAUUSD, the trading pair of gold against the US dollar. We are closely monitoring this market for a potential buying opportunity within the price range of approximately 1940. From a technical standpoint, XAUUSD is currently engaged in an upward trend and undergoing a consolidation phase, gradually approaching the key level of support and resistance at 1940. Furthermore, it is important to consider the fundamental factors influencing this market. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a softer performance, implying that future monetary policies are likely to adopt a more dovish stance. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) also displayed a similar softness. These factors combined have generated an increased appeal for gold and cryptocurrencies among investors. Given this context, the convergence of favorable technical indicators and supportive fundamental factors enhances the attractiveness of gold and cryptocurrencies as investment options. Thus, we anticipate a heightened interest from investors in exploring opportunities within the XAUUSD market, particularly around the 1940 zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
16
DXY D1 - Long Signal (relief rally)The US Inflation data came in with another surprise lower, declining faster than expected. The Core CPI YoY slowed down to 4.8% in June, down from 5.3% in May. This is the lowest core inflation print since October 2021. This is also the biggest drop since January 2021. On the other hand, the US CPI YoY dropped to 3.0% down from 4% during the same period, posting the lowest reading since March 2021 and the biggest drop since May 2020. The data was enough to shift market expectations significantly. Prior to the data, markets were pricing in the possibility of 3 more rate hikes before the end of the year, now markets are pricing in only one more rate hike in July’s meeting. The US dollar index declined sharply right after the inflation data announcement, breaking multiple key support areas, reaching as low as 100.40 by NYSE closing bell, which is the lowest daily close since April 2022. In addition, the index posted the biggest daily decline since November 2022. With this daily close, it’s safe to say that the downside trend has resumed. Since expectations shifted significantly, the index is now pricing in one more rate hike before the next easing cycle. The next support area stands at 100.0 psychological support, which should be watched carefully, as buyers are likely to appear.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
03/07/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $31291.8 Last weeks low: $29420.6 Midpoint: $30356.2 The week starting on Monday 19th of June was the latest rally for bitcoin, a strong move up leaving some large FVG inefficiencies left behind that price will look to fill in the future. The upside capped off at just under 31.5k, a high that the bulls couldn't top last week while chopping sideways in a much tighter range than previous, and consolidating under the all important 32-32.5k region where a lot of traders will look to do business. This week for me will go one of two ways in my opinion: A slow and steady drop from current price down into those FVG areas, the main one being 27.2-27.75k. OR We wick up above recent highs, tag liquidity in the supply zone around 32.5k before a sharp sell off back into those FVG zones before anymore progress can be made above this range. FOMC minutes event on Wednesday may provide the volatility required for this liquidity grabbing wick.
by ProR35
GBPUSD: 4HR Death Cross, LH and LL formation downtrendMaintaining my shorts on this pair with validation coming from the 50EMA (turquoise) crossing the 100EMA (white) which forms a death cross in the 4hr time frame. GBPUSD has failed to make a new higher high and so I'm expecting a push down to the recent low, we may break this immediately, or retrace back to the descending trendline that's now formed. We're making lower highs and lower lows which indicates a down-trend. Ultimately I'm expecting this pair to fall to below 1.22 in the coming weeks. Big FOMC release tomorrow, if the notes support Powell's recent hawkish stance then this will be bad for cable, then there is NFP on Friday which is a bit unknown. Fundamentally for GBP, recent data suggests inflation may be coming down, which suggests that the BoE may become less hawkish. Powell suggested a couple more hikes, which could mean Fed interest rates remain higher for longer. I'm also expecting a push up for DXY based on it's chart patterns. I'm staying short.
Short
by Finchcliffe
14
NZDJPY BREAKER BLOCK ENTRY M15 On NZDJPY, we have a bearish setup following yesterday's rally. As the price rose, it created a breaker block around the 0.8913 area. This will be our entry point for a long position with a target at 0.8966. The breaker block was formed on the M15 timeframe when the price broke out of the previous supply zone. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and have a great day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
Euro trading quietly around 1.09, FOMC minutes nextEUR/USD is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is almost unchanged at 1.0882. The eurozone services sector continues to show growth, but the June numbers showed a deceleration. Eurozone PMI slowed to 52.0, shy of the consensus of 52.4 and down from 55.1 in May. This marked a five-month low. Germany's services sector stalled, dropping from 53.9 to 50.6 and missing the consensus of 50.8 points. The 50.0 level separates contraction from expansion. The eurozone economy has been recovering slowly, with services driving economic activity as manufacturing continues to decline. The ECB, which showed up late to the rate-hiking party but has been quite hawkish, will need to tread carefully in order to guide the economy to a soft landing. The central bank meets next on July 27th and is expected to raise rates. Inflation has been falling but core CPI remains persistently high. The ECB has signalled more rate hikes are coming and Joachim Nagel, head of the German central bank, reiterated the ECB's stance, saying this week that inflation risks are tilted to the upside and the ECB's rate-hike cycle has "some way to go". Wednesday's highlight is the FOMC minutes of the June meeting, when the Fed raised rates by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark cash rate to a range of 5.00%-5.25%. The markets are widely expecting the Fed to hike at the July meeting but aren't sure about another rate hike this year. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed plans two hikes in the second half of the year and the minutes could change the market's tune if the Fed's tone is hawkish. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0908. The next resistance line is 110.50 1.0838 and 1.0766 are providing support
by OANDA
USDCAD LONG SETUP BEFORE FOMC + OPECOn USDCAD, we have a bullish setup with the price retracing to the 1.3226 area, touching a minor demand within the main demand zone. I have used this level as a possible entry zone with a target at 1.33. With the upcoming OPEC and FOMC events, the dollar could potentially have a bullish push this morning, considering also the DXI, which appears to have a bullish trend. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and give a like to support our work. Greetings and have a good day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2